0:00:02.263,0:00:06.348
KEN WEBSTER[br]一股财富或是财富的流量？

0:00:06.348,0:00:09.507
在过去的七年里，[br]发展循环经济不知从何冒了出来。

0:00:09.507,0:00:12.126
欧盟有着发展循环经济包装，

0:00:12.126,0:00:15.036
世界经济论坛也正为之努力，

0:00:15.036,0:00:17.948
各城市及政府也对之赋予厚望。

0:00:17.948,0:00:21.326
最近在赫尔辛基举办的会议中，

0:00:21.326,0:00:24.406
有着90个国家以及接近1700个代表

0:00:24.406,0:00:27.541
在一连几天中看待着发展循环经济。

0:00:27.545,0:00:28.983
这很令人感到兴奋。

0:00:30.953,0:00:33.275
在学术界中，目前有着上百篇论文

0:00:33.275,0:00:34.696
还有更多将会接踵而来。

0:00:34.696,0:00:38.724
它进入了教育界，尤其是商业学和工程学内。

0:00:40.996,0:00:42.504
我想问题是

0:00:42.504,0:00:45.814
发展循环经济中的那一点[br]让它成为那么的有吸引力呢？

0:00:49.449,0:00:52.426
我想我们需要回到经济学的基础。

0:00:53.246,0:00:55.288
它问三个问题，真的。

0:00:55.288,0:00:58.428
它问：要生产什么呢？如何生产？

0:00:58.428,0:01:00.166
谁会从中受益？

0:01:01.846,0:01:05.447
它不止有着三个问题，它有着三大要素。

0:01:05.447,0:01:10.159
每个经济都有物质流动、能量流动

0:01:10.159,0:01:12.969
以及信息流动--尤其是金钱。

0:01:14.039,0:01:18.169
如果你读课本，它们有着一张，

0:01:18.169,0:01:20.097
几乎是中央暖气系统的图片。

0:01:21.847,0:01:23.492
它有着两个部分：

0:01:23.492,0:01:26.821
家庭与公司，资本与劳工。

0:01:26.821,0:01:28.681
金钱在两者间流动。

0:01:28.681,0:01:33.031
工资被支付、物品被生产、收入回到公司。

0:01:34.811,0:01:36.303
那相当地简单。

0:01:36.303,0:01:40.001
还有，政府收税并出钱。

0:01:40.821,0:01:42.332
再加上银行--

0:01:42.332,0:01:44.639
它们是确保存款以投资的形式

0:01:44.639,0:01:48.382
被有效地置入回经济中的中间人。

0:01:49.902,0:01:54.315
它好比管道系统，而那是许多人对它的见解。

0:01:58.555,0:02:01.305
再加上，从长远来看

0:02:01.305,0:02:04.056
它有着一种将会处于均衡的感觉。

0:02:04.056,0:02:07.576
在任何可能的世界中，[br]若经济正有效地运行，

0:02:07.576,0:02:10.213
所有事物都将在其最佳状态。

0:02:10.213,0:02:12.323
而那几乎是经济的故事：

0:02:12.323,0:02:16.275
将它变得高效率、让它运行、

0:02:16.275,0:02:18.395
只要你不插手，它将会自行解决。

0:02:23.194,0:02:25.558
德·罗斯纳是个早期系统思维家。

0:02:26.048,0:02:28.571
德·罗斯纳想要刻画

0:02:28.571,0:02:32.984
目前的经济以及它所有的问题。

0:02:32.984,0:02:36.628
而他辨认出的主要问题就是缺乏环境。

0:02:37.418,0:02:39.970
这个经济运行的方式犹如

0:02:39.970,0:02:44.816
被置放在货物以及资源和能源流动之上的机器。

0:02:44.816,0:02:50.580
它只会触及它需触及的地方。

0:02:51.090,0:02:54.620
我想表达的是它并没有被作为考虑的因素。

0:02:54.620,0:02:58.411
实际上资源是无成本的。

0:02:58.411,0:03:02.241
实际上耗损是无成本的。

0:03:02.241,0:03:04.383
它是被人工标价的。

0:03:04.383,0:03:05.581
所有东西都有其价格，

0:03:05.581,0:03:09.033
但他们并不知道他想表达的是价值。

0:03:09.033,0:03:14.034
所以他需要将经济至于环境中[br]并看看资源和材料流动。

0:03:14.644,0:03:16.881
让我们停下并思考。

0:03:17.271,0:03:19.197
约尔·德·罗斯纳提出了<i>The Macroscope</i>，

0:03:19.197,0:03:21.463
主要的概念是去除细节。

0:03:21.943,0:03:24.053
我们有个显微镜来关注细节，

0:03:24.053,0:03:26.103
我们有个望远镜来观看远方。

0:03:26.553,0:03:29.792
他的想法是若我们取个宏观镜，[br]若我们看大图，

0:03:29.792,0:03:32.608
我们可察觉到经济中的模式

0:03:32.608,0:03:34.656
同时不需要担心细节。

0:03:34.966,0:03:36.851
那非常、非常地有帮助，[br]

0:03:36.851,0:03:41.095
因为如果经济的问题是它还未有环境，

0:03:41.102,0:03:44.744
宏观镜允许你问：“经济处于哪个位置？”

0:03:44.744,0:03:47.410
噢，它坐落于社会中，很明显地，

0:03:47.410,0:03:49.149
它坐落于一个环境内。

0:03:49.149,0:03:52.208
而这些所有东西都紧密地相互连接着。

0:03:52.638,0:03:55.459
因为系统中有某部分不是机械的，

0:03:55.859,0:03:59.237
它实际上是动态的、相互依赖的...

0:03:59.657,0:04:03.670
它反映着我们目前对这真实世界如何操作的了解。

0:04:03.670,0:04:08.795
这真实世界通过复杂的适应性系统概念来操作，

0:04:08.795,0:04:12.686
意思就是一个你不能预测结果的动态系统，

0:04:12.686,0:04:15.146
但是你将会得到很多模式。

0:04:15.146,0:04:19.007
而你可以用这些模式来找出你想做的事。

0:04:19.407,0:04:21.386
但它不会像一个有杠杆的机器的经济般给你一个答案。

0:04:21.386,0:04:24.756


0:04:24.756,0:04:26.415


0:04:26.415,0:04:30.894
在复杂的适应性经济中并没有长远的均衡。

0:04:31.214,0:04:32.697
它也许在这，也许在那，

0:04:32.697,0:04:34.557
它也许有着很好的表现，也许有着很差的表现。

0:04:34.557,0:04:37.155
但没有任何如果你有高效率，

0:04:37.815,0:04:39.711
它就会有好表现的假设。

0:04:40.311,0:04:44.202
这对德·罗斯纳来说会是个极其幼稚的看法。

0:04:44.792,0:04:49.091
而那一直都是经济学者面临的大挑战。

0:04:49.091,0:04:54.620
对一些来说，这是一个从机械性看法

0:04:54.620,0:04:57.779
转化成更有启发性的复杂经济观的旅途。

0:04:58.229,0:05:02.560
但是经济的普遍看法仍是

0:05:02.560,0:05:05.538
一个处理资源、创造经济增长的机器。

0:05:05.538,0:05:08.709
我们在另一端有着这些问题是一大羞耻，

0:05:08.709,0:05:12.539
而我们也许会面临资源短缺也是一大羞耻。

0:05:13.139,0:05:16.769
但若你将它看成是一个复杂的适应性系统，

0:05:18.039,0:05:21.479
你可以在这些模式与循环之中工作。

0:05:29.523,0:05:32.973
目前存在的经济注重的是生产量。

0:05:32.973,0:05:37.012


0:05:37.322,0:05:39.474
你可以去得多远？[br]你是个赢家。

0:05:39.864,0:05:42.383
而一个复杂的适应性系统会说：

0:05:42.383,0:05:45.454
“那有个物品，那有个流动，那有个反馈。”

0:05:45.454,0:05:49.622
如果它将是长期地工作，

0:05:50.132,0:05:53.792
这三个要素必须要以一个相互依赖的方式继续工作。

0:05:55.622,0:05:59.819
而你能如何在那样的经济中做事

0:05:59.819,0:06:01.087
那是个完全不一样的问题。

0:06:01.087,0:06:03.277
你参与其中，你影响它，

0:06:03.277,0:06:05.438
但是你并没有控制它。

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0:18:49.531,0:18:50.933
原材料

0:18:50.933,0:18:52.209
能源

0:18:52.209,0:18:53.206
工厂

0:18:53.206,0:18:56.047


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0:18:58.458,0:19:01.108


0:19:01.108,0:19:04.759


0:19:04.759,0:19:06.317
我们如何生产它？

0:19:06.317,0:19:08.330
而谁会从中获益？

0:19:08.330,0:19:11.488
你不能只问：“你是如何生产它？”的方式

0:19:11.488,0:19:14.207
来回答该经济问题。

0:19:18.546,0:19:20.478
ELLEN MACARTHUR FOUNDATION

0:19:20.478,0:19:25.007
www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org

0:19:26.537,0:19:30.448
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