[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today actually is\Na very special day for me,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it is my birthday.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so thanks for all of you\Nfor joining the party.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But every time you throw a party,\Nthere's someone there to spoil it. Right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm a physicist,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this time I brought\Nanother physicist along to do so.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,His name is Albert Einstein, also Albert,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he's the one who said that the person
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who has not made his main contributions\Nto science by the age of 30
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will never do so.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now you don't need to check Wikipedia
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I'm being 30.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So effectively what\Nhe is telling me, and us,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that when it comes to my science,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm a dead wood.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, luckily, I had my share\Nof luck within my career.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Around age 28, I became\Nvery interested in networks,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a few years later we managed\Nto kind of publish a few key papers
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that reported the discovery\Nof scale-free networks
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and really gave birth to a new discipline\Nthat we call network science today.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you really care about it,\Nyou can get a PhD now in network science
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Budapest, in Boston,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can study it all over the world.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A few years later,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I moved to Harvard\Nfirst as a sabbatical,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I became interested\Nin another type of networks,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that time the networks\Nwithin ourselves,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how the genes and the proteins\Nand the metabolites link to each other,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how they connect to disease.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that also, that interest led\Nto a major explosion within medicine,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including the Network Medicine\NDivision at Harvard
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has more than 300 researchers\Nwho are using this perspective
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to treat patients and develop new cures.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And a few years ago, I thought that I\Nwould take this idea of networks
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and expertise we had in networks\Nin a different area,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is to understand success.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And why did we do that?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, we thought that to some degree,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our success is determined\Nby the networks we are part of,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that our networks can push us forward,\Nthey can pull us back,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I was curious if we could use\Nthe knowledge in big data and expertise
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we develop on networks to really\Nquantify how these things happen.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a result from that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What you see here is a network\Nof galleries in museums
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that connect to each other,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and through this map\Nthat we mapped out last year,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are able to predict very accurately
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the success of an artist
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you give me the first five exhibits\Nthat he or she had in her career.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, as we thought about success,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we realized that success\Nis not only about networks.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are so many\Nother dimensions to that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, you know, one of the things\Nwe need for success obviously
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is performance.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's define what's the difference\Nbetween performance and success.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, performance is what you do,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how fast you run,\Nwhat kind of paintings you paint,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what kind of papers you publish.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, in our working definition,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,success is about what does the community\Nnotices from what you did,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from your performance,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how does it acknowledge it,\Nand how does it reward you for it?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other terms,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your performance is about you,\Nbut your success is about all of us.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this was a very\Nimportant shift for us,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because in the moment we defined success\Nas being a collective measure
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the community provides to us,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it became measurable,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because if it's in the community,\Nthere are multiple data points about that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now we believe,\Nand we go to school, we exercise,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we practice because we believe\Nthat performance leads to success.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the way we actually\Nstarted to explore,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we realized that performance and success\Nare very, very different animals
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to\Nthe mathematics of the problem.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And let me illustrate that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what you see here is\Nthe fastest man on Earth, Usain Bolt.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And of course, he wins most of\Nthe competitions that he enters.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we know he's the fastest on Earth\Nbecause we have a chronometer
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to measure his speed.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, what is interesting about him\Nis that when he wins,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he doesn't do so by really significantly\Noutrunning his competition.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He's running at most a percent faster\Nthan the one who loses the race.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And not only does he run only\None percent faster than the second one,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but he doesn't run\N10 times faster than I do,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'm not a good runner,\Ntrust me on that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And every time we are able\Nto measure performance,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we notice something very interesting.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is, performance is bounded.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What it means is that there are\Nno huge variations in human performance.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It varies only in a narrow range,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we do need the chronometer\Nto measure the differences.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is not to say that we cannot\Nsee the good from the best ones,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the best ones\Nare very hard to distinguish,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the problem with that\Nis that most of us work in areas
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we do not have a chronometer\Nto gauge our performance.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Alright, performance is bounded,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are no huge differences between us\Nwhen it comes to our performance.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How about success?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, let's switch to\Na different topic like books, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One measure of success for writers\Nis how many people read your work?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so when my previous book\Ncame out in 2009,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was in Europe talking with my editor,\Nand I was interested,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who is the competition?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I had some fabulous one.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That week (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Dan Brown came out with "The Lost Symbol"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and "The Last Song" also came out,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nicholas Sparks.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when you just look at the list,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you realize, you know, performance-wise
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there is hardly any difference\Nbetween these books or mine.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So maybe if Nicholas Sparks' team\Nworks a little harder,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he could easily be number one,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's almost by accident\Nwho ended up at the top.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I said, let's look at the numbers.\NI am a data person, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's see what were\Nthe sales for Nicholas Sparks.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it turns out that\Nthat opening weekend,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nicholas Sparks sold more than\Na hundred thousand copies,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is an amazing number.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can actually get to the top\Nof the New York Times Bestseller List
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by selling 10,000 copies a week,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so he tenfold overcame\Nwhat he needed to be number one.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yet he wasn't number one. Why?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because there was Dan Brown,\Nwho sold 1.2 million copies that week.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason I like this number\Nis because it shows that really,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to success, it's unbounded,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the best doesn't only get\Nslightly more than the second best,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but gets orders of magnitude more,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because success is a collective measure.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We give it to them, rather than\Nwe earn it through our performance.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So one of things we realized\Nis that performance,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we do is bounded but success,\Nwhich is collective, is unbounded,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which makes you wonder,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you get these\Nhuge differences in success
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you have so tiny\Ndifferences in performance?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And recently I published a book\Nthat I devoted to that very question,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they didn't give enough time\Nto go over all of that,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I'm going to go back\Nto the question of alright,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have success, when should that appear?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's go back to the party spoiler,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and ask ourselves,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why did Einstein make\Nthis ridiculous statement
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that only before 30\Nyou could actually be creative?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, because he looked around himself\Nand he saw all these fabulous physicists
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that created quantum mechanics\Nand modern physics,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they were all in their 20s\Nand early 30s when they did so.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not only him.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not only observational bias,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because there's actually\Na whole field of genius research
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has documented the fact\Nthat if we look at the people
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we admire from the past
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we look at what age\Ndid they make their biggest contribution,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether that's music,\Nwhether that's science,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether that's engineering,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most of them tend to do so\Nin their 20s, 30s, early 40s at most.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there's a problem\Nwith this genius research.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, first of all, it created\Nthe impression to us
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that creativity equals youth,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is painful, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it also has an observational bias,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it only looks at geniuses
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and doesn't look at ordinary scientists,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and doesn't look at all of us and asking,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is it really true that creativity\Nvanishes as we age?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's exactly what we tried to do,\Nand this is important for that
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to actually have references.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's look at an ordinary\Nscientist like myself,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and let's look at my career.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what you see here is all the papers\Nthat I published from my first paper,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's in 1989 that I was still\Nin Romania when I did so,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,til kind of this year.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And vertically you see\Nthe impact of the paper,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is, how many citations,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how many other papers\Nhave been written that cited that work?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when you look at that,\Nyou see that my career
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has three roughly different stages.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had the first 10 years\Nwhere I work a lot
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I don't achieve much.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No one seems to care\Nabout what I do, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's hardly any impact.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That time, I was doing material science,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then I kind of discovered\Nfor myself networks,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then started publishing in network,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that led one high-impact paper\Nto the other one.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it really felt good.\NThat was that stage of my career.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is,\Nwhat happens right now?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we don't know, because there\Nhasn't been enough time passed yet
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to actually figure out how much impact\Nthose papers will get.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It takes time to acquire.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, when you look at the data,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it seems to be that Einstein,\Nthe genius research, is right,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'm at that stage of my career.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we said, OK, let's figure out\Nhow does this really happen
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,first in science, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in order not to have\Nthe selection bias,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to look only at geniuses,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we ended up reconstructing the career\Nof every single scientist
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from 1900 til today
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and finding for all scientists\Nwhat was their personal best,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they got the Nobel Prize\Nor they never did,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or no one knows what they did,\Neven their personal best.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's what you see\Nactually in this slide.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each line is a career,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when you have a light blue dot\Non the top of that career,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it says that was their personal best.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the question is,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when did they actually make\Ntheir biggest discovery?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And to quantify that, we look at\Nwhat's the probability
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you make your biggest discovery\Nlet's say, one, two, three,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or 10 years into your career?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not looking at real age.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're looking at\Nwhat we call academic age.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Your academic age starts\Nwhen you publish your first papers.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I know some of you are still babies.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's look at the probability\Nthat you publish your highest impact paper
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what you see is indeed\Nthe genius research is right.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most scientists tend to publish\Ntheir highest impact paper
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the first 10, 15 years in their career,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it tanks after that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It tanks so fast that I'm about,\NI'm exactly 30 years into my career,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the chance that I will publish a paper\Nthat would have higher impact
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than anything that I did before
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is less than one percent.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I am in that stage of my career,\Naccording to this data.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there's a problem with that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not doing controls properly.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the control would be,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how would a scientist look like\Nwho makes random contribution to science?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or what is the productivity\Nof the scientist?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When do they write papers?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we measured the productivity,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and amazingly, the productivity,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your likelihood of writing a paper\Nin year one, 10, or 20 in your career
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is indistinguishable from the likelihood\Nof having the impact
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in that part of your career.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And to make a long story short,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after lots of statistical tests,\Nthere's only one explanation for that,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that really the way we scientists work
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that every single paper we write,\Nevery project we do,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has exactly the same chance\Nof being our personal best.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is, discovery is like a lottery,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and like a lottery ticket,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then the more lottery tickets we buy,\Nthe higher is the chance,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it happens to be so\Nthat most scientists
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,buy most of their lottery tickets\Nin the first 10, 15 years of their career,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and after that,\Ntheir productivity decreases.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're not buying\Nany more lottery tickets.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it looks as if\Nthey would not be creative.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In reality, they stopped trying.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when we actually put the data together,\Nthe conclusion is very simple:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,success can come at any time.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It could be your very first\Nor very last paper of your career.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's totally random\Nin the space of the projects.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is the productivity that changes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And let me illustrate that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here is Frank Wilczek,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who get the Nobel Prize in Physics\Nfor the very first paper
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he ever wrote in his career\Nas a graduate student.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More interesting is John Fenn,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who at age 70 was forcefully retired\Nby Yale university.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They shut his lab down,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at that moment, he moved\Nto Virginia Commonwealth University,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,opened another lab,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it is there at age 72\Nthat he published a paper
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for which 15 years later he got\Nthe Nobel Prize for Chemistry.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you think, OK,\Nwell science is special, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what about other areas\Nwhere we need to be creative?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me take another\Ntypical example: entrepreneurship.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Silicon Valley,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the land of the youth, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And indeed, when you look at it,\Nyou realize that the biggest awards,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the TechCrunch Awards and other awards,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are all going to people,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an average age for them\Nis late 20s, very early 30s.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You look at who the VCs give the money to,\Nsome of the biggest VC firms,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all people in their early 30s.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which, of course, we know:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there is this ethos in Silicon Valley\Nthat youth equals success.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not when you look at the data,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's not only\Nabout forming a company.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Forming a company is like productivity:\Ntrying, trying, trying.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you look at which\Nof these individuals actually put out
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a successful company, a successful exit,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and recently some of our colleagues\Nlooked at exactly that question,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it turns out that yes,\Nthose in the 20s and 30s
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,put out a huge number of companies,\Nform lots of companies,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most of them go bust,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when you look at the successful exits,\Nwhat you see in this particular plot,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the older you are, the more likely that\Nyou will actually hit the stock market
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the sell the company successfully.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is so strong, actually,\Nthat if you are in the 50s,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are twice as likely\Nto actually have a successful exit
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than if you are in your 30s.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So at the end, what it is\Nthat see, actually?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we see is that creativity has no age.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Productivity does, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which is telling me that\Nat the end of the day,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you keep trying
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you could still succeed\Nand succeed over and over,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so my conclusion is very simple.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I am of this age, back in my lab.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)