1 00:00:07,308 --> 00:00:11,711 (Applause) Good morning. 2 00:00:12,065 --> 00:00:14,687 So why Womenomics? 3 00:00:14,687 --> 00:00:17,758 Back in 1999, I decided 4 00:00:17,758 --> 00:00:21,459 to write a research report called "Womenomics", 5 00:00:21,459 --> 00:00:25,723 because I strongly believed and I do today, 6 00:00:25,723 --> 00:00:32,723 that part of a solution to Japan's myriad of structural challenges 7 00:00:32,723 --> 00:00:36,463 lies right in front of our eyes: 8 00:00:36,463 --> 00:00:38,609 half the population. 9 00:00:38,609 --> 00:00:41,306 What are some of these structural challenges? 10 00:00:41,306 --> 00:00:45,887 First and foremost is the D-word, demographics. 11 00:00:45,887 --> 00:00:48,829 Many of you are familiar with these statistics, 12 00:00:48,829 --> 00:00:52,423 but in case you are not, let me remind you. 13 00:00:52,423 --> 00:00:56,927 By the year 2055, in most of our lifetimes, 14 00:00:56,927 --> 00:01:00,556 the total population of this archipelago 15 00:01:00,556 --> 00:01:03,556 will shrink by one third. 16 00:01:04,306 --> 00:01:06,337 By that time, as you see, 17 00:01:06,337 --> 00:01:09,973 the percentage of the gray population 18 00:01:09,973 --> 00:01:14,846 will have doubled from 20% to over 40%. 19 00:01:15,446 --> 00:01:17,915 These statistics are scary 20 00:01:18,475 --> 00:01:20,615 and demographics are so severe that -- 21 00:01:20,646 --> 00:01:26,305 did you know Japan is the only OECD country, 22 00:01:26,305 --> 00:01:31,880 where there are actually more pets than children? (Laughter) 23 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:33,741 I didn't make that up. 24 00:01:33,741 --> 00:01:36,117 I looked that up. 25 00:01:36,117 --> 00:01:38,600 And if you look at it globally, of course, 26 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,472 Japan, the line is here in the red, 27 00:01:40,472 --> 00:01:44,041 the percentage of the population that is the workforce population. 28 00:01:44,041 --> 00:01:47,679 Of course demographics is a challenge for every developed economy, 29 00:01:47,679 --> 00:01:52,283 but Japan, as you can see, is going to be shrinking 30 00:01:52,283 --> 00:01:56,121 its workforce population faster than anywhere else. 31 00:01:56,121 --> 00:01:58,691 So what are the answers? What are the solutions? 32 00:01:58,691 --> 00:02:02,223 Basically, as far as I can tell, there are only three. 33 00:02:02,223 --> 00:02:04,695 1. Raise the birth rate. 34 00:02:04,695 --> 00:02:07,833 2. Change immigration laws. 35 00:02:07,833 --> 00:02:12,888 And 3. again, use half the population more effectively. 36 00:02:12,888 --> 00:02:17,275 The first one I think the government has tried to fix, 37 00:02:17,275 --> 00:02:20,746 but unfortunately, many young Japanese people, 38 00:02:20,746 --> 00:02:22,723 many of you may be in this room, 39 00:02:22,723 --> 00:02:28,639 have decided to say no to marriage. (Yes to the mic!) 40 00:02:30,059 --> 00:02:35,306 And as the ratio of unmarried Japanese rises, 41 00:02:35,306 --> 00:02:38,472 of course it is a little bit difficult to raise the birth rate, isn't it. 42 00:02:38,472 --> 00:02:40,499 2. Immigration. 43 00:02:40,499 --> 00:02:43,167 I personally believe this is inevitable, 44 00:02:43,167 --> 00:02:46,437 but it is likely to take a little bit more time. 45 00:02:46,437 --> 00:02:48,272 So that leaves us with the third, 46 00:02:48,272 --> 00:02:51,389 I think most practical near-term solution. 47 00:02:51,389 --> 00:02:52,807 Good news and bad news. 48 00:02:52,807 --> 00:02:55,224 First of all, good news is, 49 00:02:55,224 --> 00:02:59,889 Japan's female labor participation rate, 50 00:02:59,889 --> 00:03:05,389 women working today, has reached a record high of 60%. 51 00:03:05,389 --> 00:03:07,926 I wrote my report 12 years ago 52 00:03:07,926 --> 00:03:10,996 and I am glad to see there has been progress. 53 00:03:10,996 --> 00:03:14,889 The bad news however is, on a global comparison 54 00:03:14,889 --> 00:03:16,835 this is where Japan ranks, 55 00:03:16,835 --> 00:03:19,889 well below most other advanced nations, 56 00:03:19,889 --> 00:03:22,306 especially in countries like Scandinavia, 57 00:03:22,306 --> 00:03:25,177 where that ratio is close to 80%. 58 00:03:26,077 --> 00:03:27,806 So what are the issues here? 59 00:03:27,806 --> 00:03:31,850 One is what I call the uniquely Japanese phenomenon 60 00:03:31,850 --> 00:03:34,118 called the "M字カーブ", the M-curve. 61 00:03:34,118 --> 00:03:35,786 What am I talking about here? 62 00:03:35,786 --> 00:03:37,421 If you look at this graph, 63 00:03:37,421 --> 00:03:40,413 and I know it is a little bit difficult to look at graphs at this hour of the day, 64 00:03:40,413 --> 00:03:43,194 but bear with me, this is basically 65 00:03:43,194 --> 00:03:46,566 ages, age groups on the horizontal 66 00:03:46,566 --> 00:03:49,131 and the vertical is the percentage of women working. 67 00:03:49,131 --> 00:03:50,870 Now typically in any society, 68 00:03:50,870 --> 00:03:54,640 you leave school, you enter the workforce 69 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,963 and you stay in the workforce until you retire. 70 00:03:58,043 --> 00:04:02,579 In most economies, that is sort of this hill-shaped curve, 71 00:04:02,579 --> 00:04:05,162 but in Japan you have this "谷", 72 00:04:05,162 --> 00:04:07,750 you have a valley between the ages of what, 73 00:04:07,750 --> 00:04:10,688 late 20s and late 40s. 74 00:04:10,688 --> 00:04:13,056 Now ladies and gentlemen, think about this. 75 00:04:13,056 --> 00:04:16,330 Those of you who are working, 76 00:04:16,330 --> 00:04:19,889 isn't the late 20s to late 40s period in anybody's career 77 00:04:19,889 --> 00:04:23,889 the most productive period of one's career? 78 00:04:23,889 --> 00:04:26,771 And Japanese women, for the most part, 79 00:04:26,771 --> 00:04:30,305 are MIA, missing in action. 80 00:04:31,155 --> 00:04:33,223 One of the bigger issues of course, 81 00:04:33,223 --> 00:04:34,612 as many of you know, 82 00:04:34,612 --> 00:04:37,319 because of the M-curve -- one of the reasons is, that 83 00:04:37,319 --> 00:04:39,806 many Japanese mothers don't work. 84 00:04:39,806 --> 00:04:43,306 In fact, 70% of Japanese mothers 85 00:04:43,306 --> 00:04:47,139 quit working after their first child. 86 00:04:47,689 --> 00:04:49,594 And internationally, if you look here, 87 00:04:49,594 --> 00:04:52,363 only about roughly a third of 88 00:04:52,363 --> 00:04:54,722 Japanese mothers with children under the age of 6 89 00:04:54,722 --> 00:05:02,120 are working. Compare that to Sweden, close to 80%, the US, 60%, etc. 90 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,388 Why don't more women work? 91 00:05:05,388 --> 00:05:06,723 These are four reasons: 92 00:05:06,723 --> 00:05:09,279 day care/nursing care, tax issues, 93 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,782 diversity focus, and immigration. 94 00:05:11,782 --> 00:05:14,251 Let me focus though on 1. and 3. 95 00:05:14,251 --> 00:05:17,921 This is a very common topic of discussion. 96 00:05:17,921 --> 00:05:20,123 When we talk about womenomics in Japan, 97 00:05:20,123 --> 00:05:22,388 there is simply not sufficient daycare. 98 00:05:22,388 --> 00:05:25,429 Yes, the Japanese government has made some progress 99 00:05:25,429 --> 00:05:28,389 in expanding those facilities, but the reality is, 100 00:05:28,389 --> 00:05:32,056 the percentage of Japanese children under the age of 3 101 00:05:32,056 --> 00:05:34,871 currently in the care of a daycare facility 102 00:05:34,871 --> 00:05:37,306 stands at 28%. 103 00:05:37,306 --> 00:05:42,180 Look at France, 43%, or Denmark, over 60%. 104 00:05:42,180 --> 00:05:47,473 It's not also, by the way, daycare or childcare outside the home, 105 00:05:47,473 --> 00:05:49,587 what about inside the home? 106 00:05:50,927 --> 00:05:53,556 This of course entertained my husband to know, 107 00:05:53,556 --> 00:05:57,494 but the average number of hours, 108 00:05:57,494 --> 00:05:58,556 this is a government study, 109 00:05:58,556 --> 00:06:04,100 that fathers in Sweden, Norway, US, and Germany 110 00:06:04,100 --> 00:06:07,305 spend on childcare and household chores 111 00:06:07,305 --> 00:06:10,556 is over 3 hours a day. 112 00:06:10,556 --> 00:06:13,724 In Japan, 1 hour a day. 113 00:06:13,724 --> 00:06:16,181 And look at that red section of the Japan bar, 114 00:06:16,181 --> 00:06:19,517 that is 15 minutes on the children. 115 00:06:19,517 --> 00:06:22,806 OK, let me see gentlemen. 15 minutes. 116 00:06:23,716 --> 00:06:26,357 You probably spend more than 15 minutes, my guess, 117 00:06:26,357 --> 00:06:28,806 taking "お風呂", bath? 118 00:06:28,806 --> 00:06:31,428 Maybe more than 15 minutes a day watching TV? 119 00:06:31,428 --> 00:06:33,665 OK, let the truth be told. 120 00:06:33,665 --> 00:06:38,503 So there is a big issue with cooperation and mutual care, 121 00:06:38,503 --> 00:06:41,056 inside the home as well. 122 00:06:41,056 --> 00:06:43,389 Inadequate focus on diversity, 123 00:06:43,389 --> 00:06:46,110 this is to me a huge issue. 124 00:06:46,110 --> 00:06:48,778 The last 5 years, in most of the developed world, 125 00:06:48,778 --> 00:06:51,282 we have seen concrete progress. 126 00:06:51,282 --> 00:06:54,185 Change doesn't always happen from the bottom up, 127 00:06:54,185 --> 00:06:57,253 oftentimes it has to happen from the top down. 128 00:06:57,253 --> 00:07:00,625 To change things in society, you do need to put 129 00:07:00,625 --> 00:07:03,260 agents of change in leadership positions. 130 00:07:03,260 --> 00:07:07,832 So the percentage of Japanese managers is still 9%. 131 00:07:07,832 --> 00:07:11,703 This is the same ratio it was 5 years ago. 132 00:07:11,703 --> 00:07:14,806 Other countries are 35-50%. 133 00:07:14,806 --> 00:07:18,669 We need more role models. 134 00:07:19,259 --> 00:07:23,914 Interestingly, let's see, 25 years ago, the Japanese government 135 00:07:23,914 --> 00:07:29,787 actually passed the equal employment opportunity law, "均等法". 136 00:07:30,337 --> 00:07:35,723 Despite that, on average, Japanese women earn today 137 00:07:35,723 --> 00:07:39,931 still only two thirds that of their male counterparts. 138 00:07:39,931 --> 00:07:41,723 Now as you can see on this graph, 139 00:07:41,723 --> 00:07:48,339 gender wage gaps exist everywhere, not just Japan. 140 00:07:49,119 --> 00:07:52,222 But if you think about it, if I am a Japanese woman 141 00:07:52,222 --> 00:07:56,947 and no matter how hard I work, no matter how hard I try, 142 00:07:56,947 --> 00:08:01,085 I know, that I am always going to be discriminated 143 00:08:01,085 --> 00:08:05,189 for pay and promotion. What am I going to do? 144 00:08:05,189 --> 00:08:08,693 I'm probably not going to continue, right? 145 00:08:08,693 --> 00:08:13,163 So this to me is a law, superficially, 146 00:08:13,163 --> 00:08:16,836 but it is not really enforced in the way it should be. 147 00:08:17,566 --> 00:08:21,004 Many people ask when I give these talks on Womenomics, 148 00:08:21,004 --> 00:08:23,040 "But does it really matter?" 149 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:27,109 And I think, the statistics prove a resounding yes, 150 00:08:27,109 --> 00:08:29,139 because if you look at companies 151 00:08:29,139 --> 00:08:34,686 that have adopted explicit practices to promote diversity, 152 00:08:34,686 --> 00:08:37,973 for example, programs to support working mothers, 153 00:08:37,973 --> 00:08:44,495 or programs to ensure objective evaluation and performance metrics, 154 00:08:44,495 --> 00:08:48,666 the red bar shows you the average profit margin of those companies 155 00:08:48,666 --> 00:08:52,638 is higher than the blue bar of companies that do not. 156 00:08:52,638 --> 00:08:57,040 But let me tell you, the number 1 obstacle I encounter 157 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,972 when I talk about Womenomics in Japan, is this. 158 00:09:00,972 --> 00:09:04,615 "But Matsui-san, if your thesis is right 159 00:09:04,615 --> 00:09:08,751 and we have more Japanese women working in society, 160 00:09:08,751 --> 00:09:15,860 is that not going to lower the already very low Japanese birthrate?" 161 00:09:15,860 --> 00:09:18,973 How many of you have heard that statement before? 162 00:09:18,973 --> 00:09:21,724 Yes, many people. Well, it is a very nice thesis, 163 00:09:21,724 --> 00:09:27,473 sounds good, but empirically this is false. 164 00:09:27,473 --> 00:09:29,439 Look at this graph. 165 00:09:29,439 --> 00:09:33,376 I am simply plotting: vertical axis is fertility rate, 166 00:09:33,376 --> 00:09:37,473 horizontal axis is women in the workforce. 167 00:09:37,473 --> 00:09:40,306 Don't bother with the dots, look at the red line. 168 00:09:40,306 --> 00:09:43,021 That is a positively sloped curve. In other words, 169 00:09:43,021 --> 00:09:45,556 the more women working in a country, 170 00:09:45,556 --> 00:09:49,360 the higher the birthrate, not the opposite. 171 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:53,497 Look at Sweden, United States, United Kingdom, France, Australia. 172 00:09:53,497 --> 00:09:58,138 Now the Japanese in this audience don't believe me or don't believe these statistics. 173 00:09:58,138 --> 00:10:00,671 It is true in your own country. 174 00:10:00,671 --> 00:10:03,806 This is the "47都道府県", 47 prefectures, 175 00:10:03,806 --> 00:10:07,513 the slope, look at that, exactly the same. 176 00:10:07,513 --> 00:10:13,416 Okinawa, Fukui, Nagano, relatively higher female participation rate in the workforce 177 00:10:13,416 --> 00:10:15,752 and relatively higher birthrate. 178 00:10:15,752 --> 00:10:20,258 So what is the upside, if we could implement Womenomics? 179 00:10:20,258 --> 00:10:22,723 I know it is a bit of a dream, but let's pretend for a moment. 180 00:10:22,723 --> 00:10:26,389 If we could raise Japan's female participation rate, 181 00:10:26,389 --> 00:10:30,889 I showed you that at 60%, to match that of Japanese males at 80%, 182 00:10:30,889 --> 00:10:34,771 this is the potential upside to GDP: 183 00:10:34,771 --> 00:10:40,610 15%! 15% lift to Japanese GDP level. 184 00:10:40,610 --> 00:10:43,779 That to me is well worth it. 185 00:10:43,779 --> 00:10:46,223 Now what do we do finally? Four things. 186 00:10:46,223 --> 00:10:49,020 1. Change that mindset. 187 00:10:49,020 --> 00:10:52,639 Diversity Womenomics should not be an extracurricular activity, 188 00:10:52,639 --> 00:10:56,806 it has to be core to a company's bottom line strategy 189 00:10:56,806 --> 00:11:01,388 and in order to fulfil longer potential growth for an economy. 190 00:11:01,388 --> 00:11:07,170 2. Flexible work and objective evaluation practices. 191 00:11:07,170 --> 00:11:10,557 Flexible work, many people talk about flexible work for women. 192 00:11:10,557 --> 00:11:14,473 Think about it. If more Japanese women are not getting married, 193 00:11:14,473 --> 00:11:17,849 that must mean there are also lot of single Japanese men, 194 00:11:18,779 --> 00:11:22,556 who are single child, who have to take care of 195 00:11:22,556 --> 00:11:24,806 eventually their ageing parents, no? 196 00:11:25,666 --> 00:11:27,523 They are going to need time off. 197 00:11:27,523 --> 00:11:29,594 They are going to need more flexible work styles. 198 00:11:29,594 --> 00:11:31,723 So this is not a gender issue. 199 00:11:31,723 --> 00:11:35,598 Flexible work arrangements are for men and women. 200 00:11:35,598 --> 00:11:40,504 3. Deregulation of nursing, daycare, and immigration. 201 00:11:40,504 --> 00:11:44,441 Japan has agreed with the governments of the Philippines and Indonesia 202 00:11:44,441 --> 00:11:47,724 to welcome 1000 nurses. That is great. 203 00:11:47,724 --> 00:11:51,081 But if you want to stay beyond three years, guess what, 204 00:11:51,081 --> 00:11:56,087 you need to pass a national certification exam in Japanese 205 00:11:56,087 --> 00:11:58,722 to stay and keep your visa. 206 00:11:58,722 --> 00:12:05,095 Last February, 257 nurses took this test, 3 nurses passed. 207 00:12:05,095 --> 00:12:09,501 If you are going to invite them, don't set the bar so high. 208 00:12:09,501 --> 00:12:13,003 Finally, a critical mass of female role models. 209 00:12:13,003 --> 00:12:17,889 This is very important. I actually used to be a huge opponent to anything 210 00:12:17,889 --> 00:12:21,078 related to quotas, affirmative action. 211 00:12:21,078 --> 00:12:23,889 I have begun to evolve my thinking. 212 00:12:23,889 --> 00:12:29,020 The government of Norway, 2004, adopted a legal quota system, 213 00:12:29,020 --> 00:12:32,190 so that every publicly listed company in Norway 214 00:12:32,190 --> 00:12:35,693 had to have at least 40% of their corporate boards female. 215 00:12:35,693 --> 00:12:38,594 Now can you imagine if you are sitting in corporate Norway 216 00:12:38,594 --> 00:12:41,973 at that time, you said "No way!". 217 00:12:41,973 --> 00:12:45,306 There are not enough talented capable Norwegian women 218 00:12:45,306 --> 00:12:48,304 to fill our board's seats. It ain't gonna happen. 219 00:12:48,304 --> 00:12:51,274 Guess what happened. One year went by, 220 00:12:51,274 --> 00:12:55,245 two years went by. Today, most companies have 221 00:12:55,245 --> 00:12:58,306 fulfilled this legal quota of 40%. 222 00:12:58,306 --> 00:13:01,138 Why? Because the women were there. 223 00:13:01,138 --> 00:13:03,286 They just crawled out of the woodwork. 224 00:13:03,286 --> 00:13:05,473 They were lifted by other people and 225 00:13:05,473 --> 00:13:08,090 now they are in important positions of decision making. 226 00:13:08,090 --> 00:13:10,972 This is not impossible. 227 00:13:10,972 --> 00:13:14,098 And I think Japan in particular, given how far behind it is, 228 00:13:14,098 --> 00:13:16,800 maybe does need a little bit of an extra push 229 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,003 to take the numbers up. 230 00:13:19,003 --> 00:13:22,672 And finally for those of you in this room who are female 231 00:13:22,672 --> 00:13:24,442 and there is lots of you and that is great to see, 232 00:13:24,442 --> 00:13:27,639 if you don't remember anything from my presentation today, 233 00:13:27,639 --> 00:13:32,683 remember one thing: there is no such thing as a glass ceiling, 234 00:13:32,683 --> 00:13:36,388 it is just a thick layer of men. 235 00:13:36,388 --> 00:13:39,273 Thank you very much. 236 00:13:39,273 --> 00:13:41,171 (Applause)