1 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 - [Narrator] The path from cause to effect is dark and dangerous. 2 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But the weapons of Econometrics are strong. 3 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 [Attack] with fierce and flexible instrumental variables 4 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 when nature blesses you with fortuitous random assignment. 5 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 [gong rings] 6 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Randomized trials are the surest path to ceteris parabus comparisons. 7 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Alas, this powerful tool is often unavailable. 8 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But sometimes, randomization happens by accident. 9 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That's when we turn to instrumental variables, 10 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 IV for short. 11 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 - [Voice whispers] Instrumental variables. 12 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 - [Narrator] Today's lesson is the first of two on IV. 13 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Our first IV lesson begins with a story of schools. 14 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 - [Josh] Charter schools are public schools 15 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 freed from daily district oversight and teacher union contracts. 16 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The question of whether charters boost achievement 17 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is one of the most important 18 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in the history of American education reform.