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當我仲係一個細路仔

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核戰係我哋最擔心嘅災難

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於是我哋喺地下室擺咗一個桶

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桶裡面裝住好多罐頭同埋水

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假如核戰爆發

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我哋就落去地下室匿埋
然後靠果個桶維生

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當今世上風險最大既災難

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唔係呢個

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而係呢個

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假如有樣野可以係喺未來幾十年
殺死超過一千萬人

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最有可能嘅就係傳染性極高嘅病毒

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而並非戰爭

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唔係導彈，而係微生物

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部分原因係因為我哋投入左

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巨大嘅資源喺核武

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相比之下，我哋投放好少資源落去
一個預防疫情爆發嘅機制上

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我哋仲未準備好應對
下一次嘅疫情

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睇下伊波拉

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我相信你哋所有人都喺報紙上面
睇過關於佢嘅報道

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對付病毒嗰陣出現過好多好嚴峻嘅挑戰

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我曾經用一個用嚟追查
脊髓灰質炎根治情況嘅方法

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去分析伊波拉疫情

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從事件嘅發展我哋睇度

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問題唔係機制運作唔好

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而係我哋根本冇一個機制去應對伊波拉

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事實上係有一啲幾明顯嘅漏洞

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我們冇一班隨時候命嘅流行病學家

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喺傳染病爆發嗰陣去研究
個病毒本身屬性係點，傳播規模有幾大

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病例報告雖然以書面形式發表

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但好耐之後佢哋先至放上網

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啲報告仲要係好唔準確

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我哋冇一班隨時候命嘅醫療隊伍

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我哋冇辦法招募到人員

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無國界醫生喺組織志願者方面
貢獻咗好多

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即使係咁，我哋仍然比應有嘅步伐慢

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我哋宜家喺呢啲有疫情嘅國家度
應該要有幾千個人員

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當有大規模疫情嘅時候
更加需要幾十萬嘅人員

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冇人試過睇下治療方法

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冇人留意過診斷方式

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冇人試過探討用咩工具

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舉例，我哋可以抽取康復者嘅血液

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處理過之後
將血清注入番佢哋度去保護佢哋

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但冇人試過咁做

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所以，真係有好多地方做得不足

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呢啲就係全球既失敗

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世界衛生組織本身就係去監控疫情
但偏偏佢哋從來都冇做過

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喺電影裡面，情況就唔一樣

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裡面有一班隨時準備就緒嘅流行病學家

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佢哋介入，拯救咗全世界
不過呢啲只係電影情節

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準備不足可以令下一個傳染病隨時爆發

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傷害程度可能比伊波拉更大

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睇下今年伊波拉疫情嘅演變

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有大約一萬人死亡

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幾乎全部都係黎自西非三個國家

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疫情之所以冇進一步擴大
原因有三個

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第一個原因係
有好多英勇既醫護人員喺度奮鬥

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佢哋發現患者之後
就第一時間阻止疫情傳開

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第二就係病毒本身嘅特性

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伊波拉唔會經空氣傳播

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當你具備高傳染性嘅時候

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大多數人因為病得好嚴重
要訓喺張床度

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第三，病毒冇傳到去多個城市

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呢個只係好彩

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如果病毒擴散到更多城市

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病例數目就會多好多

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下次我哋未必會咁好彩

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一個人可以帶住病毒但又冇事


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只要呢個人上機或者去街市
都可以將病毒傳開去

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病毒嘅源頭可以係自然既流行病
好似伊波拉咁

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亦可以係黎自生物恐怖主義

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所以，事情往往可以造成千倍更大嘅傷害

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我地一齊黎睇一個
病毒經空氣傳播嘅模型

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就好似 1918 年西班牙流感病毒咁

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當時係嘅

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嗰次流感喺世界傳播得非常之快

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大約有三千萬死於呢場疫症

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嗰次疫症真係好嚴重

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我哋必須多加關注

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不過，其實
我哋係可以建立一個完善嘅應變系統

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科學同科技帶比大家嘅好處
我哋已經喺度講過

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我哋都有手機

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可以接收大眾資訊
亦可以向公眾發放訊息

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我哋可以透衛星地圖睇到
啲人嘅位置同佢哋行緊去邊

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人類喺生物學上取得嘅成果

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應該可以俾人
有更多時間去尋找致病源

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去研製藥物同疫苗黎對付致病源

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因此，我哋係有工具

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但呢啲工具需要用喺全球衛生體系嗰度

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仲有一樣野，就係我哋需要準備

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我認為，所謂嘅準備好

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其實就同打仗冇分別

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士兵整束待發

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大批後備軍隊支援

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北約有一個可以迅速部署嘅部隊

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北約舉行好多嘅演習
確保軍隊訓綀有素

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例如佢哋熟唔熟悉燃料同行動

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通訊用嘅頻率係唔係一樣

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務求佢哋係準備就緒

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所以呢啲都係我哋應對疫情既問題

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咁關鍵係嘜？

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首先，貧窮國家需要有規模嘅衛生體系

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可以俾母親安全生產

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細路可以接種疫苗

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但係，喺我哋將會見到
最先出現疫情既地方

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我哋需要一支醫療嘅後備團隊

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由大量從事醫療行業
受過相關訓綀

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同時有經驗、可以隨時就緒嘅人擔當職務

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跟住需要醫護人員同軍隊合作

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借助軍隊去快速應變

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去支援成個行動，以及封鎖疫區

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我哋需要進行模擬運算

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我指嘅係細菌模擬爆發嘅測試
而唔係軍事演習

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咁樣先可以發現邊度有漏洞

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最近一次喺美國進行嘅細菌模擬爆發測試

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係喺 2001 年
不過嗰次進行嘚得唔係好順利

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嗰次，細菌同人類嘅比分係 1:0

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最後，我哋喺疫苗同診斷方面需要有大量嘅研發

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例如喺腺相關嘅病毒研究方面就有
一啲重大嘅突破

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研究出黎嘅疫苗可以快速起到作用

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雖然我唔知確實既預算將會係幾多

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但我可以好肯定咁話

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相比於潛在危害，呢個開支係細好多

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世界銀行預測，假如全球流感大爆發

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全球財富將會唔見三兆億美元

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會有幾百萬人死亡

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健康科學嘅投資會帶黎好多好處

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唔單止係預防疫情爆發

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基本醫療、研發

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呢啲都會減低全球衛生嘅平等性

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令世界變得更公平更安全

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所以我認為呢樣野絕對係首要考慮既事情

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大家冇必要恐慌

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我哋其實唔需要喺地下室
囤積好多意大利麵嘅罐頭

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但係我哋要立即行動
因為時間唔到我哋控制

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事實上，假如我哋要正面睇伊波拉疫情

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就會知道伊波拉其實係一個警號
話俾人類知要未雨綢謬

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如果大家從宜家就開始行動

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我哋就可以準備好
迎接下一個可能發生嘅症情

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多謝

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（掌聲）