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I'd like to start with a simple question:

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Why do the poor make
so many poor decisions?

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I know it's a harsh question,

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but take a look at the data.

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The poor borrow more, save less,

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smoke more, exercise less, drink more

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and eat less healthfully.

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Why?

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Well, the standard explanation

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was once summed up by the British
Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher.

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And she called poverty
"a personality defect."

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(Laughter)

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A lack of character, basically.

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Now, I'm sure not many of you
would be so blunt.

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But the idea that there's something
wrong with the poor themselves

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is not restricted to Mrs. Thatcher.

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Some of you may believe that the poor
should be held responsible

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for their own mistakes.

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And others may argue that we should
help them to make better decisions.

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But the underlying assumption is the same:

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there's something wrong with them.

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If we could just change them,

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if we could just teach them
how to live their lives,

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if they would only listen.

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And to be honest,

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this was what I thought for a long time.

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It was only a few years ago
that I discovered

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that everything I thought I knew
about poverty was wrong.

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It all started when I accidentally
stumbled upon a paper

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by a few American psychologists.

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They had traveled 8,000 miles,
all the way to India,

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for a fascinating study.

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And it was an experiment
with sugarcane farmers.

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You should know that these farmers
collect about 60 percent

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of their annual income all at once,

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right after the harvest.

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This means that they're relatively
poor one part of the year

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and rich the other.

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The researchers asked them to do
an IQ test before and after the harvest.

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What they subsequently discovered
completely blew my mind.

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The farmers scored much worse
on the test before the harvest.

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The effects of living
in poverty, it turns out,

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correspond to losing 14 points of IQ.

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Now, to give you an idea,

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that's comparable
to losing a night's sleep

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or the effects of alcoholism.

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A few months later,
I heard that Eldar Shafir,

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a professor at Princeton University
and one of the authors of this study,

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was coming over to Holland, where I live.

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So we met up in Amsterdam

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to talk about his revolutionary
new theory of poverty.

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And I can sum it up in just two words:

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scarcity mentality.

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It turns out that people
behave differently

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when they perceive a thing to be scarce.

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And what that thing is
doesn't much matter --

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whether it's not enough time,
money or food.

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You all know this feeling,

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when you've got too much to do,

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or when you've put off breaking for lunch

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and your blood sugar takes a dive.

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This narrows your focus
to your immediate lack --

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to the sandwich you've got to have now,

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the meeting that's starting
in five minutes

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or the bills that have
to be paid tomorrow.

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So the long-term perspective
goes out the window.

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You could compare it to a new computer

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that's running 10 heavy programs at once.

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It gets slower and slower, making errors.

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Eventually, it freezes --

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not because it's a bad computer,

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but because it has too much to do at once.

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The poor have the same problem.

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They're not making dumb decisions
because they are dumb,

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but because they're living in a context

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in which anyone would make dumb decisions.

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So suddenly I understood

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why so many of our anti-poverty
programs don't work.

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Investments in education, for example,
are often completely ineffective.

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Poverty is not a lack of knowledge.

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A recent analysis of 201 studies

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on the effectiveness
of money-management training

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came to the conclusion
that it has almost no effect at all.

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Now, don't get me wrong --

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this is not to say the poor
don't learn anything --

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they can come out wiser for sure.

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But it's not enough.

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Or as Professor Shafir told me,

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"It's like teaching someone to swim

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and then throwing them in a stormy sea."

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I still remember sitting there,

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perplexed.

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And it struck me

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that we could have figured
this all out decades ago.

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I mean, these psychologists didn't need
any complicated brain scans;

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they only had to measure the farmer's IQ,

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and IQ tests were invented
more than 100 years ago.

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Actually, I realized I had read about
the psychology of poverty before.

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George Orwell, one of the greatest
writers who ever lived,

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experienced poverty
firsthand in the 1920s.

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"The essence of poverty,"
he wrote back then,

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is that it "annihilates the future."

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And he marveled at, quote,

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"How people take it for granted
they have the right to preach at you

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and pray over you

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as soon as your income falls
below a certain level."

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Now, those words are every bit
as resonant today.

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The big question is, of course:

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What can be done?

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Modern economists have
a few solutions up their sleeves.

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We could help the poor
with their paperwork

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or send them a text message
to remind them to pay their bills.

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This type of solution is hugely popular
with modern politicians,

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mostly because,

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well, they cost next to nothing.

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These solutions are, I think,
a symbol of this era

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in which we so often treat the symptoms,

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but ignore the underlying cause.

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So I wonder:

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Why don't we just change the context
in which the poor live?

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Or, going back to our computer analogy:

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Why keep tinkering around
with the software

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when we can easily solve the problem
by installing some extra memory instead?

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At that point, Professor Shafir
responded with a blank look.

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And after a few seconds, he said,

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"Oh, I get it.

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You mean you want to just hand out
more money to the poor

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to eradicate poverty.

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Uh, sure, that'd be great.

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But I'm afraid that brand
of left-wing politics

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you've got in Amsterdam --

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it doesn't exist in the States."

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But is this really
an old-fashioned, leftist idea?

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I remembered reading about an old plan --

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something that has been proposed
by some of history's leading thinkers.

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The philosopher Thomas More
first hinted at it in his book, "Utopia,"

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more than 500 years ago.

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And its proponents have spanned
the spectrum from the left to the right,

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from the civil rights campaigner,
Martin Luther King,

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to the economist Milton Friedman.

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And it's an incredibly simple idea:

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basic income guarantee.

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What it is?

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Well, that's easy.

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It's a monthly grant, enough to pay
for your basic needs:

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food, shelter, education.

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It's completely unconditional,

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so no one's going to tell you
what you have to do for it,

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and no one's going to tell you
what you have to do with it.

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The basic income
is not a favor, but a right.

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There's absolutely no stigma attached.

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So as I learned about the true
nature of poverty,

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I couldn't stop wondering:

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Is this the idea
we've all been waiting for?

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Could it really be that simple?

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And in the three years that followed,

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I read everything I could find
about basic income.

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I researched the dozens of experiments

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that have been conducted
all over the globe,

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and it didn't take long before I stumbled
upon a story of a town

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that had done it --
had actually eradicated poverty.

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But then ...

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nearly everyone forgot about it.

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This story starts in Dauphin, Canada.

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In 1974, everybody in this small town
was guaranteed a basic income,

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ensuring that no one fell
below the poverty line.

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At the start of the experiment,

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an army of researchers
descended on the town.

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For four years, all went well.

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But then a new government
was voted into power,

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and the new Canadian cabinet saw
little point to the expensive experiment.

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So when it became clear there was
no money left to analyze the results,

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the researchers decided to pack
their files away in some 2,000 boxes.

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Twenty-five years went by,

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and then Evelyn Forget,
a Canadian professor,

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found the records.

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For three years, she subjected the data
to all manner of statistical analysis,

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and no matter what she tried,

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the results were the same every time:

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the experiment had been
a resounding success.

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Evelyn Forget discovered

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that the people in Dauphin
had not only become richer

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but also smarter and healthier.

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The school performance of kids
improved substantially.

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The hospitalization rate decreased
by as much as 8.5 percent.

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Domestic violence incidents were down,

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as were mental health complaints.

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And people didn't quit their jobs.

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The only ones who worked a little less
were new mothers and students --

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who stayed in school longer.

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Similar results have since been found

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in countless other experiments
around the globe,

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from the US to India.

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So ...

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here's what I've learned.

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When it comes to poverty,

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we, the rich, should stop
pretending we know best.

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We should stop sending shoes
and teddy bears to the poor,

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to people we have never met.

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And we should get rid of the vast
industry of paternalistic bureaucrats

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when we could simply
hand over their salaries

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to the poor they're supposed to help.

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(Applause)

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Because, I mean, the great
thing about money

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is that people can use it
to buy things they need

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instead of things that self-appointed
experts think they need.

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Just imagine how many brilliant scientists
and entrepreneurs and writers,

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like George Orwell,

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are now withering away in scarcity.

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Imagine how much energy
and talent we would unleash

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if we got rid of poverty once and for all.

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I believe that a basic income would work
like venture capital for the people.

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And we can't afford not to do it,

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because poverty is hugely expensive.

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Just look at the cost of child poverty
in the US, for example.

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It's estimated at 500 billion
dollars each year,

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in terms of higher health care
spending, higher dropout rates,

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and more crime.

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Now, this is an incredible waste
of human potential.

NOTE Paragraph

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But let's talk about
the elephant in the room.

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How could we ever afford
a basic income guarantee?

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Well, it's actually a lot cheaper
than you may think.

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What they did in Dauphin is finance it
with a negative income tax.

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This means that your income is topped up

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as soon as you fall
below the poverty line.

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And in that scenario,

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according to our economists'
best estimates,

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for a net cost of 175 billion --

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a quarter of US military spending,
one percent of GDP --

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you could lift all impoverished Americans
above the poverty line.

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You could actually eradicate poverty.

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Now, that should be our goal.

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(Applause)

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The time for small thoughts
and little nudges is past.

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I really believe that the time has come
for radical new ideas,

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and basic income is so much more
than just another policy.

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It is also a complete rethink
of what work actually is.

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And in that sense,

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it will not only free the poor,

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but also the rest of us.

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Nowadays, millions of people feel

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that their jobs have little
meaning or significance.

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A recent poll among 230,000 employees

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in 142 countries

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found that only 13 percent of workers
actually like their job.

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And another poll found that as much
as 37 percent of British workers

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have a job that they think
doesn't even need to exist.

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It's like Brad Pitt says in "Fight Club,"

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"Too often we're working jobs we hate
so we can buy shit we don't need."

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(Laughter)

NOTE Paragraph

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Now, don't get me wrong --

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I'm not talking about the teachers
and the garbagemen

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and the care workers here.

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If they stopped working,

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we'd be in trouble.

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I'm talking about all those well-paid
professionals with excellent résumés

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who earn their money doing ...

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strategic transactor peer-to-peer meetings

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while brainstorming the value
add-on of disruptive co-creation

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in the network society.

NOTE Paragraph

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(Laughter)

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(Applause)

NOTE Paragraph

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Or something like that.

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Just imagine again how much
talent we're wasting,

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simply because we tell our kids
they'll have to "earn a living."

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Or think of what a math whiz working
at Facebook lamented a few years ago:

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"The best minds of my generation

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are thinking about how
to make people click ads."

NOTE Paragraph

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I'm a historian.

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And if history teaches us anything,

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it is that things could be different.

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There is nothing inevitable

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about the way we structured our society
and economy right now.

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Ideas can and do change the world.

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And I think that especially
in the past few years,

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it has become abundantly clear

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that we cannot stick to the status quo --

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that we need new ideas.

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I know that many of you
may feel pessimistic

00:13:31.736 --> 00:13:33.799
about a future of rising inequality,

00:13:33.823 --> 00:13:35.100
xenophobia

00:13:35.124 --> 00:13:36.320
and climate change.

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But it's not enough
to know what we're against.

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We also need to be for something.

00:13:40.864 --> 00:13:43.398
Martin Luther King didn't say,
"I have a nightmare."

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:43.422 --> 00:13:45.295
(Laughter)

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:45.319 --> 00:13:46.478
He had a dream.

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:46.502 --> 00:13:47.581
(Applause)

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:47.605 --> 00:13:48.757
So ...

00:13:49.835 --> 00:13:51.060
here's my dream:

00:13:52.303 --> 00:13:53.941
I believe in a future

00:13:53.965 --> 00:13:56.318
where the value of your work
is not determined

00:13:56.342 --> 00:13:57.819
by the size of your paycheck,

00:13:57.843 --> 00:13:59.875
but by the amount of happiness you spread

00:13:59.899 --> 00:14:01.876
and the amount of meaning you give.

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I believe in a future

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where the point of education is not
to prepare you for another useless job

00:14:06.840 --> 00:14:08.450
but for a life well-lived.

00:14:09.204 --> 00:14:10.483
I believe in a future

00:14:10.507 --> 00:14:13.601
where an existence
without poverty is not a privilege

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but a right we all deserve.

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So here we are.

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Here we are.

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We've got the research,
we've got the evidence

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and we've got the means.

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Now, more than 500 years after Thomas More
first wrote about a basic income,

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and 100 years after George Orwell
discovered the true nature of poverty,

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we all need to change our worldview,

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because poverty
is not a lack of character.

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Poverty is a lack of cash.

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Thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

00:14:40.529 --> 00:14:44.952
(Applause)