1 00:00:00,107 --> 00:00:03,926 ♪ [音乐] ♪ 2 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:22,077 - [Thomas Stratmann] 大家好! 3 00:00:22,077 --> 00:00:24,268 在接下来的一系列视频中 4 00:00:24,268 --> 00:00:26,858 我们将向你介绍一个 炫酷的新工具 5 00:00:26,858 --> 00:00:30,414 来帮助你理解数据 6 00:00:30,414 --> 00:00:31,981 那就是“线性回归” 7 00:00:32,885 --> 00:00:34,668 假设你有这么一种理论 8 00:00:34,668 --> 00:00:37,249 你发现外貌出众的人 9 00:00:37,249 --> 00:00:39,067 好像总能得到特殊的优待 10 00:00:39,642 --> 00:00:40,878 你在想 11 00:00:40,878 --> 00:00:43,798 “还有什么地方 也能看到这种现象呢?” 12 00:00:44,132 --> 00:00:45,637 对教师来说 这种现象也存在吗? 13 00:00:45,637 --> 00:00:48,259 有没有可能 外貌出众的老师 14 00:00:48,259 --> 00:00:50,010 也会得到特别优待呢? 15 00:00:50,350 --> 00:00:53,899 学生们会不会 对这些老师更好 16 00:00:53,899 --> 00:00:57,209 给他们打更高的学生评价分? 17 00:00:57,866 --> 00:01:00,467 如果确实如此 外貌对评价分的影响 18 00:01:00,467 --> 00:01:03,573 是很大还是很小呢? 19 00:01:04,159 --> 00:01:07,519 假设有位教师刚刚开始 到一所大学上班 20 00:01:07,519 --> 00:01:08,759 - [男人] 老兄,早啊 21 00:01:08,759 --> 00:01:11,810 - 仅从他的外貌 我们能对他的学生评价分 22 00:01:11,810 --> 00:01:13,371 做出怎样的预测? 23 00:01:13,940 --> 00:01:17,216 由于评价分能影响加薪 24 00:01:17,671 --> 00:01:21,709 如果这个理论属实 老师们可能会 25 00:01:21,709 --> 00:01:24,519 采取一些令人惊讶的手段 来提高他们的得分 26 00:01:24,519 --> 00:01:25,731 - [Lloyd Christmas] 耶! 27 00:01:25,731 --> 00:01:27,461 - 如果你想弄清楚 28 00:01:27,461 --> 00:01:30,801 更出众的外貌是否真的会 带来更高的评价分 29 00:01:31,441 --> 00:01:34,450 你会怎样检验这个假说呢? 30 00:01:34,956 --> 00:01:36,552 你可以收集数据 31 00:01:36,761 --> 00:01:40,025 首先,让学生从1到10 32 00:01:40,025 --> 00:01:42,076 给老师的外貌打分 33 00:01:42,076 --> 00:01:44,807 由此你可以得出 这位老师的颜值平均分 34 00:01:45,229 --> 00:01:48,552 然后你可以从25名学生处 35 00:01:48,552 --> 00:01:50,421 收集这位老师的教学评价分 36 00:01:50,421 --> 00:01:53,273 我们通过散点图 37 00:01:53,273 --> 00:01:54,738 来同时查看这两个变量 38 00:01:54,981 --> 00:01:57,419 我们用横轴表示外貌 39 00:01:57,852 --> 00:02:00,589 纵轴表示教学评价分 40 00:02:01,223 --> 00:02:04,903 例如,这一点代表着 Peate 教授 41 00:02:04,903 --> 00:02:06,423 - [Bib Fortuna] De wana wanga. 42 00:02:06,423 --> 00:02:08,811 - 他得到了3分的外貌分 43 00:02:08,811 --> 00:02:11,866 8.425的教学评价分 44 00:02:12,084 --> 00:02:14,958 这边的是 Helmchen 教授 45 00:02:14,958 --> 00:02:16,797 - [Ben Stiller, "Zoolander"] 帅到不像话! 46 00:02:16,797 --> 00:02:18,721 - 他的外貌得分非常高 47 00:02:18,721 --> 00:02:20,872 但评价分没那么高 48 00:02:21,101 --> 00:02:22,283 你能看出规律吗? 49 00:02:22,283 --> 00:02:25,533 当我们沿x轴从左向右移动 50 00:02:25,533 --> 00:02:27,963 从难看向好看移动 51 00:02:27,963 --> 00:02:31,186 评价分呈现出上升趋势 52 00:02:31,870 --> 00:02:35,174 对了,我们在这个系列视频中 使用的数据 53 00:02:35,174 --> 00:02:38,923 不是编造出来的 而是来自于 54 00:02:38,923 --> 00:02:40,897 在德克萨斯大学做过的 真实研究 55 00:02:41,337 --> 00:02:46,023 另外你可能不知道 “pulchritude”只不过是 56 00:02:46,023 --> 00:02:47,880 “颜值”的另一种 比较高端、学术的说法 57 00:02:48,405 --> 00:02:51,474 58 00:02:51,474 --> 00:02:55,594 59 00:02:55,594 --> 00:02:59,104 60 00:02:59,104 --> 00:03:01,318 61 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,908 62 00:03:04,908 --> 00:03:08,144 63 00:03:08,144 --> 00:03:10,775 64 00:03:10,775 --> 00:03:12,613 65 00:03:13,295 --> 00:03:17,181 66 00:03:17,669 --> 00:03:20,888 67 00:03:20,888 --> 00:03:24,278 68 00:03:24,278 --> 00:03:26,456 69 00:03:27,087 --> 00:03:29,536 70 00:03:30,067 --> 00:03:32,596 71 00:03:32,596 --> 00:03:35,358 72 00:03:36,107 --> 00:03:39,827 73 00:03:40,794 --> 00:03:43,807 74 00:03:43,807 --> 00:03:45,587 75 00:03:46,070 --> 00:03:50,237 76 00:03:50,237 --> 00:03:53,026 77 00:03:53,544 --> 00:03:55,907 78 00:03:55,907 --> 00:03:59,469 79 00:03:59,768 --> 00:04:03,939 80 00:04:04,377 --> 00:04:07,420 81 00:04:07,857 --> 00:04:10,764 82 00:04:11,158 --> 00:04:13,903 83 00:04:14,389 --> 00:04:17,304 84 00:04:17,770 --> 00:04:21,262 85 00:04:21,579 --> 00:04:25,569 86 00:04:25,569 --> 00:04:28,429 87 00:04:28,429 --> 00:04:30,229 88 00:04:30,229 --> 00:04:31,297 89 00:04:31,297 --> 00:04:34,109 90 00:04:34,683 --> 00:04:36,749 91 00:04:37,019 --> 00:04:38,749 92 00:04:39,233 --> 00:04:41,665 93 00:04:41,665 --> 00:04:43,515 94 00:04:44,844 --> 00:04:47,890 95 00:04:47,890 --> 00:04:49,770 96 00:04:49,770 --> 00:04:52,039 97 00:04:52,838 --> 00:04:55,439 98 00:04:55,439 --> 00:04:58,340 99 00:04:58,833 --> 00:05:00,430 100 00:05:00,430 --> 00:05:03,639 101 00:05:03,639 --> 00:05:06,900 102 00:05:07,344 --> 00:05:09,965 103 00:05:09,965 --> 00:05:12,456 104 00:05:12,456 --> 00:05:15,645 105 00:05:16,052 --> 00:05:18,956 106 00:05:19,228 --> 00:05:22,972 107 00:05:23,660 --> 00:05:27,668 108 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:32,095 109 00:05:32,095 --> 00:05:34,335 110 00:05:34,335 --> 00:05:37,383 111 00:05:37,861 --> 00:05:40,388 112 00:05:40,388 --> 00:05:43,537 113 00:05:43,537 --> 00:05:45,848 114 00:05:46,346 --> 00:05:49,807 115 00:05:50,289 --> 00:05:53,620 116 00:05:53,620 --> 00:05:54,900 117 00:05:54,900 --> 00:05:58,166 118 00:05:58,922 --> 00:06:02,069 119 00:06:02,069 --> 00:06:05,781 120 00:06:06,626 --> 00:06:09,575 121 00:06:09,846 --> 00:06:14,577 122 00:06:14,577 --> 00:06:18,994 123 00:06:19,408 --> 00:06:21,758 124 00:06:21,758 --> 00:06:24,477 125 00:06:24,477 --> 00:06:26,219 126 00:06:26,219 --> 00:06:28,368 127 00:06:28,368 --> 00:06:30,737 128 00:06:31,762 --> 00:06:35,509 129 00:06:35,509 --> 00:06:39,070 130 00:06:41,169 --> 00:06:42,445 131 00:06:42,445 --> 00:06:45,247 132 00:06:45,568 --> 00:06:47,139 133 00:06:47,139 --> 00:06:48,700 134 00:06:48,700 --> 00:06:50,404 135 00:06:50,865 --> 00:06:53,976 136 00:06:54,313 --> 00:06:55,364 137 00:06:55,598 --> 00:06:58,325 138 00:06:58,325 --> 00:07:01,642 139 00:07:01,892 --> 00:07:04,406