[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.09,0:00:10.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are you as good at things \Nas you think you are?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.19,0:00:13.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How good are you at managing money?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.90,0:00:16.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What about reading people's emotions?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.73,0:00:20.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How healthy are you \Ncompared to other people you know?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.17,0:00:23.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are you better than average at grammar?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.11,0:00:24.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Knowing how competent we are
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.70,0:00:27.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how are skill stack up \Nagainst other people's
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.99,0:00:30.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is more than a self-esteem boost.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.17,0:00:34.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It helps us figure out when we can forge\Nahead on our own decisions and instincts
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.71,0:00:39.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when we need, instead, \Nto seek out advice.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.39,0:00:42.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But psychological research suggests\Nthat we're not very good
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.70,0:00:45.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at evaluating ourselves accurately.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.66,0:00:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, we frequently overestimate\Nour own abilities.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.00,0:00:52.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Researchers have a name \Nfor this phenomena,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.29,0:00:55.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.63,0:00:58.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This effect explains \Nwhy more than 100 studies
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.20,0:01:02.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have shown that people display \Nillusory superiority.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.46,0:01:04.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We judge ourselves as better than others
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.54,0:01:08.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to a degree that violates \Nthe laws of math.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.13,0:01:12.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When software engineers at two companies\Nwere asked to rate their performance,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.66,0:01:17.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,32% of the engineers at one company\Nand 42% at the other
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.64,0:01:21.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,put themselves in the top 5%.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.22,0:01:25.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In another study, 88% of American drivers
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.20,0:01:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,described themselves \Nas having above average driving skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.46,0:01:31.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These aren't isolated findings.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.61,0:01:34.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On average, people tend to rate\Nthemselves better than most
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.94,0:01:42.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in disciplines ranging from health,\Nleadership skills, ethics, and beyond.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.10,0:01:45.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's particularly interesting\Nis that those with the least ability
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.76,0:01:50.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are often the most likely to overrate\Ntheir skills to the greatest extent.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.64,0:01:53.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People measurably poor \Nat logical reasoning,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.37,0:01:54.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,grammar,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.07,0:01:55.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,financial knowledge,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.12,0:01:55.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,math,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.98,0:01:57.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,emotional intelligence,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.36,0:01:59.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,running medical lab tests,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.36,0:02:00.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and chess
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.64,0:02:08.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all tend to rate their expertise almost\Nas favorably as actual experts do.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.24,0:02:11.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So who's most vulnerable to this delusion?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.40,0:02:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sadly, all of us because we all have\Npockets of incompetence
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.72,0:02:18.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we don't recognize.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.64,0:02:19.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But why?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.82,0:02:24.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When psychologists Dunning and Kruger\Nfirst described the effect in 1999,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.72,0:02:28.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they argued that people lacking\Nknowledge and skill in particular areas
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.87,0:02:31.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,suffer a double curse.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.33,0:02:35.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, they make mistakes\Nand reach poor decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.15,0:02:40.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But second, those same knowledge gaps also\Nprevent them from catching their errors.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.58,0:02:44.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other words, poor performers lack\Nthe very expertise needed
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.45,0:02:47.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to recognize how badly they're doing.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.42,0:02:49.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, when the researchers studied
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.42,0:02:51.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,participants in \Na college debate tournament,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.98,0:02:55.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the bottom 25% of teams \Nin preliminary rounds
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.57,0:02:59.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lost nearly four \Nout of every five matches.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.62,0:03:03.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they thought they were winning\Nalmost 60%.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.23,0:03:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,WIthout a strong grasp \Nof the rules of debate,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.00,0:03:09.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the students simply couldn't recognize\Nwhen or how often
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.55,0:03:12.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their arguments broke down.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.49,0:03:17.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't a question\Nof ego blinding us to our weaknesses.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.44,0:03:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People usually do admit their deficits\Nonce they can spot them.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.54,0:03:25.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In one study, students who had initially\Ndone badly on a logic quiz
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.65,0:03:28.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then took a mini course on logic
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.04,0:03:34.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were quite willing to label\Ntheir original performances as awful.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.08,0:03:38.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That may be why people with a moderate\Namount of experience or expertise
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.07,0:03:41.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,often have less confidence\Nin their abilities.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.29,0:03:44.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They know enough to know that \Nthere's a lot they don't know.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.69,0:03:49.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware\Nof just how knowledgeable they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.24,0:03:51.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they often make a different mistake:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.20,0:03:56.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they assume that everyone else \Nis knowledgeable, too.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.43,0:04:00.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The result is that people, \Nwhether they're inept or highly skilled,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.08,0:04:04.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are often caught in a bubble\Nof inaccurate self-perception.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.35,0:04:07.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When they're unskilled, \Nthey can't see their own faults.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.67,0:04:09.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When they're exceptionally competent,\N
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.46,0:04:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they don't perceive how unusual \Ntheir abilities are.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.30,0:04:18.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if the Dunning-Kruger effect \Nis invisible to those experiencing it,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.49,0:04:24.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what can you do to find out how good\Nyou actually are at various things?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.87,0:04:27.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, ask for feedback from other people,\N
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.52,0:04:30.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and consider it, \Neven if it's hard to hear.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.58,0:04:33.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, and more important, keep learning.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.24,0:04:34.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The more knowledgeable we become,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.94,0:04:40.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the less likely we are to have\Ninvisible holes in our competence.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.45,0:04:43.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Perhaps it all boils down \Nto that old proverb:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.33,0:04:44.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When arguing with a fool,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.84,0:04:49.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,first make sure the other person\Nisn't doing the same thing.