0:00:07.092,0:00:10.192 Are you as good at things [br]as you think you are? 0:00:10.192,0:00:13.902 How good are you at managing money? 0:00:13.902,0:00:16.732 What about reading people's emotions? 0:00:16.732,0:00:20.172 How healthy are you [br]compared to other people you know? 0:00:20.172,0:00:23.114 Are you better than average at grammar? 0:00:23.114,0:00:24.701 Knowing how competent we are 0:00:24.701,0:00:27.993 and how are skill stack up [br]against other people's 0:00:27.993,0:00:30.172 is more than a self-esteem boost. 0:00:30.172,0:00:34.714 It helps us figure out when we can forge[br]ahead on our own decisions and instincts 0:00:34.714,0:00:39.393 and when we need, instead, [br]to seek out advice. 0:00:39.393,0:00:42.705 But psychological research suggests[br]that we're not very good 0:00:42.705,0:00:45.664 at evaluating ourselves accurately. 0:00:45.664,0:00:50.001 In fact, we frequently overestimate[br]our own abilities. 0:00:50.001,0:00:52.293 Researchers have a name [br]for this phenomena, 0:00:52.293,0:00:55.626 the Dunning-Kruger effect. 0:00:55.626,0:00:58.204 This effect explains [br]why more than 100 studies 0:00:58.204,0:01:02.465 have shown that people display [br]illusory superiority. 0:01:02.465,0:01:04.544 We judge ourselves as better than others 0:01:04.544,0:01:08.134 to a degree that violates [br]the laws of math. 0:01:08.134,0:01:12.665 When software engineers at two companies[br]were asked to rate their performance, 0:01:12.665,0:01:17.637 32% of the engineers at one company[br]and 42% at the other 0:01:17.637,0:01:21.224 put themselves in the top 5%. 0:01:21.224,0:01:25.195 In another study, 88% of American drivers 0:01:25.195,0:01:29.465 described themselves [br]as having above average driving skills. 0:01:29.465,0:01:31.606 These aren't isolated findings. 0:01:31.606,0:01:34.945 On average, people tend to rate[br]themselves better than most 0:01:34.945,0:01:42.095 in disciplines ranging from health,[br]leadership skills, ethics, and beyond. 0:01:42.095,0:01:45.756 What's particularly interesting[br]is that those with the least ability 0:01:45.756,0:01:50.636 are often the most likely to overrate[br]their skills to the greatest extent. 0:01:50.636,0:01:53.367 People measurably poor [br]at logical reasoning, 0:01:53.367,0:01:54.070 grammar, 0:01:54.070,0:01:55.117 financial knowledge, 0:01:55.117,0:01:55.983 math, 0:01:55.983,0:01:57.361 emotional intelligence, 0:01:57.361,0:01:59.357 running medical lab tests, 0:01:59.357,0:02:00.637 and chess 0:02:00.637,0:02:08.238 all tend to rate their expertise almost[br]as favorably as actual experts do. 0:02:08.238,0:02:11.397 So who's most vulnerable to this delusion? 0:02:11.397,0:02:15.718 Sadly, all of us because we all have[br]pockets of incompetence 0:02:15.718,0:02:18.638 we don't recognize. 0:02:18.638,0:02:19.820 But why? 0:02:19.820,0:02:24.719 When psychologists Dunning and Kruger[br]first described the effect in 1999, 0:02:24.719,0:02:28.873 they argued that people lacking[br]knowledge and skill in particular areas 0:02:28.873,0:02:31.329 suffer a double curse. 0:02:31.329,0:02:35.148 First, they make mistakes[br]and reach poor decisions. 0:02:35.148,0:02:40.581 But second, those same knowledge gaps also[br]prevent them from catching their errors. 0:02:40.581,0:02:44.449 In other words, poor performers lack[br]the very expertise needed 0:02:44.449,0:02:47.419 to recognize how badly they're doing. 0:02:47.419,0:02:49.419 For example, when the researchers studied 0:02:49.419,0:02:51.979 participants in [br]a college debate tournament, 0:02:51.979,0:02:55.569 the bottom 25% of teams [br]in preliminary rounds 0:02:55.569,0:02:59.623 lost nearly four [br]out of every five matches. 0:02:59.623,0:03:03.229 But they thought they were winning[br]almost 60%. 0:03:03.229,0:03:06.001 WIthout a strong grasp [br]of the rules of debate, 0:03:06.001,0:03:09.550 the students simply couldn't recognize[br]when or how often 0:03:09.550,0:03:12.491 their arguments broke down. 0:03:12.491,0:03:17.440 The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't a question[br]of ego blinding us to our weaknesses. 0:03:17.440,0:03:21.541 People usually do admit their deficits[br]once they can spot them. 0:03:21.541,0:03:25.651 In one study, students who had initially[br]done badly on a logic quiz 0:03:25.651,0:03:28.040 and then took a mini course on logic 0:03:28.040,0:03:34.081 were quite willing to label[br]their original performances as awful. 0:03:34.081,0:03:38.071 That may be why people with a moderate[br]amount of experience or expertise 0:03:38.071,0:03:41.291 often have less confidence[br]in their abilities. 0:03:41.291,0:03:44.691 They know enough to know that [br]there's a lot they don't know. 0:03:44.691,0:03:49.241 Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware[br]of just how knowledgeable they are. 0:03:49.241,0:03:51.201 But they often make a different mistake: 0:03:51.201,0:03:56.432 they assume that everyone else [br]is knowledgeable, too. 0:03:56.432,0:04:00.083 The result is that people, [br]whether they're inept or highly skilled, 0:04:00.083,0:04:04.352 are often caught in a bubble[br]of inaccurate self-perception. 0:04:04.352,0:04:07.673 When they're unskilled, [br]they can't see their own faults. 0:04:07.673,0:04:09.461 When they're exceptionally competent,[br] 0:04:09.461,0:04:14.303 they don't perceive how unusual [br]their abilities are. 0:04:14.303,0:04:18.493 So if the Dunning-Kruger effect [br]is invisible to those experiencing it, 0:04:18.493,0:04:24.873 what can you do to find out how good[br]you actually are at various things? 0:04:24.873,0:04:27.524 First, ask for feedback from other people,[br] 0:04:27.524,0:04:30.584 and consider it, [br]even if it's hard to hear. 0:04:30.584,0:04:33.235 Second, and more important, keep learning. 0:04:33.235,0:04:34.935 The more knowledgeable we become, 0:04:34.935,0:04:40.454 the less likely we are to have[br]invisible holes in our competence. 0:04:40.454,0:04:43.333 Perhaps it all boils down [br]to that old proverb: 0:04:43.333,0:04:44.835 When arguing with a fool, 0:04:44.835,0:04:49.115 first make sure the other person[br]isn't doing the same thing.