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Are you as good at things 
as you think you are?

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How good are you at managing money?

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What about reading people's emotions?

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How healthy are you 
compared to other people you know?

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Are you better than average at grammar?

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Knowing how competent we are

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and how are skill stack up 
against other people's

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is more than a self-esteem boost.

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It helps us figure out when we can forge
ahead on our decisions and instincts

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and when we need, instead, 
to seek out advice.

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But psychological research suggests
that we're not very good

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at evaluating ourselves accurately.

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In fact, we frequently over estimate
our own abilities.

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Researchers have a name 
for this phenomena,

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the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

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This effect explains 
why more than 100 studies

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have shown that people display 
elusory superiority.

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We judge ourselves as better than others

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to a degree that violates 
the laws of math.

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When software engineers at two companies
were asked to rate their performance,

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32% of the engineers at one company
and 42% at the other

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put themselves in the top 5%.

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In another study, 88% of American drivers

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described themselves 
as having above average driving skills.

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These aren't isolated findings.

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On average, people tend to rate
themselves better than most

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in disciplines ranging from health,
leadership skills, ethics, and beyond.

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What's particularly interesting
is that those with the least ability

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are often the most likely to overrate
their skills to the greatest extent.

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People measurably poor 
at logical reasoning,

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grammar,

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financial knowledge,

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math,

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emotional intelligence,

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running medical lab tests,

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and chess

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all tend to rate their expertise almost
as favorably as actual experts do.

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So who's most vulnerable to this delusion?

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Sadly, all of us because we all have
pockets of incompetence

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we don't recognize.

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But why?

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When psychologists Dunning and Kruger
first described the effect in 1999,

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they argued that people lacking
knowledge and skill in particular areas

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suffer a double curse.

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First, they make mistakes
and reach poor decisions.

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But second, those same knowledge gaps also
prevent them from catching their errors.

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In other words, poor performers lack
the very expertise needed

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to recognize how badly they're doing.

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For example, when the researchers studied

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participants in 
a college debate tournament,

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the bottom 25% of teams 
in preliminary rounds

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lost nearly four 
out of every five matches.

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But they thought they were winning
almost 60%.

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WIthout a strong grasp 
of the rules of debate,

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the students simply couldn't recognize
when or how often

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their arguments broke down.

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The Dunning-Kruger Effect isn't a question
of ego blinding us to our weaknesses.

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People usually do admit their deficits
once they can spot them.

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In one study, students who had initially
done badly on a logic quiz

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and then took a mini-course on logic

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were quite willing to label
their original performances as awful.

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That may be why people with a moderate
amount of experience or expertise

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often have less confidence
in their abilities.

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They know enough to know that 
there's a lot they don't know.

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Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware
of just how knowledgeable they are.

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But they often make a different mistake:

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they assume that everyone else 
is knowledgeable, too.

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The result is that people, 
whether they're inept or highly skilled,

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are often caught in a bubble
of inaccurate self-perception.

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When they're unskilled, 
they can't see their own faults.

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When they're exceptionally competent,


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they don't perceive how unusual 
their abilities are.

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So if the Dunning-Kruger Effect 
is invisible to those experiencing it,

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what can you do to find out how good
you actually are at various things?

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First, ask for feedback from other people,


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and consider it, 
even if it's hard to hear.

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Second, and more important, keep learning.

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The more knowledgeable we become,

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the less likely we are to have
invisible holes in our competence.

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Perhaps it all boils down 
to that old proverb:

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When arguing with a fool,

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first make sure the other person
isn't doing the same thing.