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Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.11,0:00:02.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Colin] We have a saying \Nin neuroscience sometimes:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.27,0:00:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Don't ask the person,\Nask the brain,"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.38,0:00:06.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the brain activity\Nmay be something
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.48,0:00:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's less than fully conscious.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.68,0:00:11.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.82,0:00:20.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My research is about\Nbehavioral economics
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.85,0:00:22.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and neuroeconomics.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.10,0:00:23.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And behavioral economics
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.49,0:00:26.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is using ideas from psychology\Nand other social sciences
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.83,0:00:28.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make economics\Na little bit more lifelike
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.80,0:00:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and fit human behavior.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.31,0:00:33.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The neuroeconomics part \Nis that we actually try to see
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.76,0:00:35.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what's happening in the brain
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.21,0:00:37.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when people are making \Neconomic decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.30,0:00:40.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hypothetical bias is a term \Nfor when you ask somebody
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.27,0:00:41.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they're going\Nto do something,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.75,0:00:43.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's no actual consequences,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.15,0:00:45.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like a lot of surveys:\N"Are you going to vote?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.04,0:00:47.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Will you buy \Nthis new product we have?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.62,0:00:50.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You tend to get a kind \Nof upward "yes" bias.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.40,0:00:52.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People are more likely to say,\N"Yeah, I'd think I'd buy it"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.79,0:00:54.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or "Oh, yeah,\NI'm planning to vote."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.24,0:00:56.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The hypothetical bias\Ncan be pretty high,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.13,0:00:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it can be also retrospective.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.88,0:00:59.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you ask people did they vote,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.53,0:01:02.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,70% say yes and really \Nthe answer was 45%.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.21,0:01:05.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One application is \Nin things like marketing.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.10,0:01:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A lot of new products fail,\Nand one reason they fail
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.91,0:01:09.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is because when \Nthey test marketed,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.63,0:01:11.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot of people said, \N"Yes, I'd buy it,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.41,0:01:12.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who weren't going to buy it.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.63,0:01:14.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One thing that people \Nhave been chasing
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.25,0:01:16.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in different fields in economics\Nand psychology is
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.86,0:01:20.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how could we measure the size \Nof this bias and adjust for it?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.30,0:01:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that if 70% of the people say\Nthey're going to buy a new product,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.10,0:01:25.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know that \Nthe real number is 45%.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.62,0:01:32.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We did a couple of studies\Nusing brain imaging to say
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.74,0:01:34.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is there a kind\Nof signature in the brain
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.77,0:01:37.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of when somebody says, \N"Yes, I would buy it,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.03,0:01:39.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but when they really have \Nto choose, they say no.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.46,0:01:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we showed them pictures\Nof different goods,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.44,0:01:43.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the first part \Nof the experiment, we asked them,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.60,0:01:46.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Would you pay $27 \Nfor this backpack, yes or no?" --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.66,0:01:47.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's the hypothetical part.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.95,0:01:50.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we kind of surprised them\Nwhen they come out of the scanner,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.67,0:01:52.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we say to them,\N"Oh, by the way,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.07,0:01:54.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now we're going to actually\Nhave you decide to spend money,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.82,0:01:56.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we're going to give you $50."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.75,0:01:59.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you want to buy\Nthe backpack for $27,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.12,0:02:00.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're going to take it\Nout of your 50,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.69,0:02:02.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that now they have\Nto make real decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.56,0:02:05.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we study \Nin the brain imaging,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.03,0:02:07.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could we tell what areas \Nwere saying yes,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.93,0:02:09.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but actually would later say no,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.97,0:02:12.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared to the areas that said,\N"Yes, I think I'll buy it,"
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.91,0:02:14.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, yes, they really did buy it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.45,0:02:17.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we found both\Nmore activity in certain regions
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.22,0:02:18.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,associated with valuation
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.93,0:02:20.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then activity\Nin different regions,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.84,0:02:22.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which were somewhat predictive
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.13,0:02:25.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of when a yes was going to turn\Ninto, "Well, not really."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.82,0:02:30.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In some other studies \Non hypothetical bias,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.87,0:02:33.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we used eye tracking, \Nwhich is a computerized way
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.07,0:02:35.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of seeing what you're looking at\Nfor how long.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.47,0:02:37.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It also measures pupil dilation.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.25,0:02:39.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you're aroused \Nby something that you like
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.68,0:02:42.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or possibly you're scared,\Nthe pupil dilates a little bit.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.55,0:02:44.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we used that method
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.11,0:02:46.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then another method\Nusing mouse movements.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.22,0:02:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we found \Nthat the mouse tracking
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.00,0:02:50.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the eye tracking\Nactually could give us an idea
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.34,0:02:52.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of when people would say, "Yes, \NI'm going to buy this product,"
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.97,0:02:55.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but then they really didn't\Nwhen they had skin in the game
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.28,0:02:56.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and had to buy it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.50,0:03:00.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The quicker a person moves a mouse\Nto a box to click on something,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.93,0:03:02.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more they like it.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.28,0:03:05.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's like a fast trajectory,\N"I really like this."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.19,0:03:08.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A slow meandering trajectory is, \N"Well, I don't know. I'm not sure."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.50,0:03:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The motor activity in the mouse is\Nactually an index in economic value
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.46,0:03:15.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as some other things,\Nlike indecision.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.70,0:03:21.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We live in a kind of golden age\Nof social science
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.65,0:03:24.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which we can measure things\Nin lots and lots of different ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.30,0:03:25.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So one thing we've just begun
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.82,0:03:28.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I think is going \Nto be really, really fun
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.18,0:03:32.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is in order to study habit\Nand a bunch of other things,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.73,0:03:34.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we bought a smart vending machine,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.37,0:03:35.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a smart vending machine
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.83,0:03:37.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is basically a vending\Nmachine in the back
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.62,0:03:39.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a giant iPad in the front.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.22,0:03:42.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you could program the iPad\Nto show whatever you want.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.28,0:03:43.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, if somebody\Nbuys habitually,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.100,0:03:46.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you raise the price\Nby a few percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.45,0:03:47.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do they just ignore that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.52,0:03:49.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they're not \Neven looking at the price?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.38,0:03:51.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eventually, we'd like also\Nto be able to use
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.54,0:03:53.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,webcams or cameras to record,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.51,0:03:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so when I say somebody\Nis not looking at the price,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.52,0:03:57.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I really mean they are\Nnot looking at the price
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.54,0:04:00.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the camera looked\Nat where their eyes were looking.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.28,0:04:02.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Want to see \Nmore economists in the wild?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.42,0:04:04.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Check out our playlist.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.18,0:04:05.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are you a teacher?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.23,0:04:07.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's some related material \Nfor your classroom.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.87,0:04:09.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪