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Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.11,0:00:02.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Colin] We have a saying \Nin neuroscience sometimes:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.27,0:00:04.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Don't ask the person,\Nask the brain,"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.25,0:00:07.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the brain activity\Nmay be something that's less
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.61,0:00:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than fully conscious.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.68,0:00:11.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.92,0:00:22.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My research is about behavioral \Neconomics and neuroeconomics.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.02,0:00:25.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And behavioral economics is using \Nideas from psychology
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.14,0:00:27.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and other social sciences\Nto make economics
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.74,0:00:31.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a little bit more lifelike \Nand fit human behavior.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.49,0:00:33.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The neuroeconomics part \Nis that we actually try to see
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.76,0:00:35.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what's happening in the brain
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.21,0:00:37.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when people are making \Neconomic decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.21,0:00:40.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hypothetical bias is a term \Nfor when you ask somebody
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.31,0:00:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they're going to something,\Nbut there's no actual consequences,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.13,0:00:45.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like a lot of surveys:\N"Are you going to vote?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.04,0:00:47.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Will you buy \Nthis new product we have?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.62,0:00:50.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You tend to get a kind \Nof upward "yes" bias.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.45,0:00:52.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People are more likely to say,\N"Yeah, I'd think I'd buy it,"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.93,0:00:54.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or, "Oh yeah, I'm planning to vote."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.45,0:00:56.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The hypothetical bias can \Nbe pretty high,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.13,0:00:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it can be also retrospective.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.88,0:00:59.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you ask people did they vote,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.53,0:01:02.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,70% say yes and really \Nthe answer was 45%.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.30,0:01:05.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One application is \Nin things like marketing.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.10,0:01:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A lot of new products fail\Nand one reason they fail
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.91,0:01:09.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is because when \Nthey test market it,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.63,0:01:11.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot of people said, \N"Yes, I'd buy it,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.41,0:01:12.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who weren't going to buy it.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.63,0:01:14.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One thing that people \Nhave been chasing
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.25,0:01:16.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in different fields in economics\Nand psychology is
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.86,0:01:20.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how can we measure the size \Nof this bias and adjust for it.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.04,0:01:22.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that if 70% of the people say\Nthey're going to buy a new product,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.86,0:01:25.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know that \Nthe real number is 45%.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.62,0:01:32.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We did a couple of studies using\Nbrain imaging to say
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.74,0:01:34.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is there a kind of signature \Nin the brain of when
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.96,0:01:37.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somebody says, \N"Yes, I would buy it,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.03,0:01:39.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but when they really have \Nto choose, they say no.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.46,0:01:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we showed them pictures\Nof different goods,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.44,0:01:43.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the first part \Nof the experiment, we asked them,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.60,0:01:46.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Would you pay $27 \Nfor this backpack, yes or no?"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.72,0:01:49.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the hypothetical part,\Nand then we kind of surprised them
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.26,0:01:51.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they come out of the scanner\Nand we say to them,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.63,0:01:54.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh by the way, now we're going \Nto actually have you decide
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.04,0:01:56.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to spend money \Nso we're going to give you $50."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.44,0:01:59.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you want to buy the backpack\Nfor $27, we're going to take it
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.55,0:02:02.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out of your 50, so that now\Nthey have to make real decisions,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.56,0:02:04.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we study \Nin the brain imaging,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.69,0:02:07.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could we tell what areas \Nwere saying yes,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.78,0:02:11.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but actually would later say no\Ncompared to the areas that said,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.01,0:02:14.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Yes, I think I'll buy it,"\Nand, yes, they really did buy it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.45,0:02:17.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we found both more activity\Nin certain regions associated
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.66,0:02:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with valuation and then activity \Nin different regions,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.38,0:02:23.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which were somewhat predictive\Nof when a yes was going to turn
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.51,0:02:25.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into, "Well, not really."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.67,0:02:30.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In some other studies \Non hypothetical bias,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.75,0:02:33.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we used eye tracking, \Nwhich is a computerized way
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.07,0:02:35.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of seeing what you're looking at\Nfor how long.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.47,0:02:37.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It also measures pupil dilation.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.25,0:02:39.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you're aroused \Nby something that you like,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.50,0:02:42.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or possibly you're scared,\Nthe pupil dilates a little bit.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.70,0:02:44.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we used that method\Nand then another method
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.87,0:02:46.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using mouse movements.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.34,0:02:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we found \Nthat the mouse tracking
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.00,0:02:50.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the eye tracking\Nactually could give us an idea
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.34,0:02:52.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of when people would say, "Yes, \NI'm going to buy this product,"
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.97,0:02:55.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but then they really didn't\Nwhen they had skin in the game
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.28,0:02:56.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and had to buy it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.50,0:03:00.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The quicker a person moves a mouse\Nto a box to click on something,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.28,0:03:02.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more they like it.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.42,0:03:04.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's like a fast trajectory,\N"I really like this."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.19,0:03:08.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A slow meandering trajectory is, \N"Well, I don't know. I'm not sure."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.09,0:03:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The motor activity in the mouse is\Nactually an index in economic value
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.46,0:03:15.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as some other things,\Nlike indecision.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.70,0:03:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We live in a kind of golden age\Nof social science
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.65,0:03:24.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which we can measure things\Nin lots and lots of different ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.48,0:03:25.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So one thing we've just begun
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.82,0:03:28.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I think it's going \Nto be really, really fun
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.18,0:03:32.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is in order to study habit\Nand a bunch of other things.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.45,0:03:35.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We bought a smart vending machine,\Nand a smart vending machine
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.32,0:03:37.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is basically a vending machine \Nin the back
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.38,0:03:39.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a giant iPad in the front.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.22,0:03:42.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you could program the iPad\Nto show whatever you want.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.28,0:03:44.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, if somebody buys\Nhabitually and you raise the price
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.85,0:03:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by a few percent,\Ndo they just ignore that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.43,0:03:49.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they're not \Neven looking at the price?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.38,0:03:52.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eventually, we'd like also\Nto be able to use webcam cameras
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.63,0:03:55.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to record so when I say\Nsomebody is not looking at the price,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.23,0:03:57.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I really mean they \Nare not looking at the price
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.54,0:03:59.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the camera looked\Nat where their eyes were looking.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.06,0:04:02.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Want to see \Nmore economists in the wild?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.40,0:04:03.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Check out our playlist.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.76,0:04:05.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are you a teacher?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.15,0:04:07.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's some related material \Nfor your classroom.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.87,0:04:09.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪