[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.78,0:00:04.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Images like this, from the Auschwitz\Nconcentration camp,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.58,0:00:08.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been seared into our consciousness\Nduring the 20th century
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.73,0:00:14.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and have given us\Na new understanding of who we are,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.64,0:00:17.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we've come from\Nand the times we live in.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.87,0:00:21.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,During the 20th century,\Nwe witnessed the atrocities
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.49,0:00:26.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot,\NRwanda and other genocides,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.98,0:00:30.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and even though the 21st century\Nis only seven years old,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.48,0:00:34.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have already witnessed\Nan ongoing genocide in Darfur
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.31,0:00:36.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the daily horrors of Iraq.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.09,0:00:40.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This has led to a common\Nunderstanding of our situation,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.70,0:00:43.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,namely, that modernity\Nhas brought us terrible violence,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.83,0:00:47.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and perhaps that native peoples\Nlived in a state of harmony
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.12,0:00:50.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we have departed from, to our peril.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.59,0:00:54.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here is an example\Nfrom an op-ed on Thanksgiving,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.53,0:00:56.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the "Boston Globe"\Na couple of years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.71,0:01:00.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the writer wrote,\N"The Indian life was a difficult one,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.11,0:01:01.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there were no employment problems,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.00,0:01:05.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,community harmony was strong,\Nsubstance abuse unknown,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.05,0:01:06.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,crime nearly nonexistent.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.72,0:01:10.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What warfare there was between tribes\Nwas largely ritualistic
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.57,0:01:13.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and seldom resulted in indiscriminate\Nor wholesale slaughter."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.96,0:01:16.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now you're all familiar\Nwith this treacle.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.48,0:01:18.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We teach it to our children.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.80,0:01:21.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We hear it on television\Nand in storybooks.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.95,0:01:26.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, the original title of this session\Nwas, "Everything You Know is Wrong,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.75,0:01:28.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'm going to present evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.37,0:01:31.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this particular part\Nof our common understanding is wrong,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.37,0:01:35.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that, in fact, our ancestors\Nwere far more violent than we are,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.48,0:01:39.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that violence has been in decline\Nfor long stretches of time,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.26,0:01:42.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that today, we are probably\Nliving in the most peaceful time
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.34,0:01:44.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in our species's existence.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.18,0:01:46.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now in the decade of Darfur and Iraq,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.82,0:01:51.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a statement like that might seem somewhere\Nbetween hallucinatory and obscene,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.81,0:01:57.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I'm going to try to convince you\Nthat that is the correct picture.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.93,0:02:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The decline of violence\Nis a fractal phenomenon.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.03,0:02:04.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see it over millennia,\Nover centuries, over decades
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.70,0:02:06.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and over years,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.21,0:02:08.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,although there seems\Nto have been a tipping point
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.56,0:02:11.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the onset of the Age of Reason\Nin the 16th century.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.93,0:02:15.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One sees it all over the world,\Nalthough not homogeneously.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.56,0:02:17.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's especially evident in the West,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.90,0:02:21.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beginning with England and Holland\Naround the time of the Enlightenment.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.84,0:02:25.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me take you on a journey\Nof several powers of 10 --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.83,0:02:28.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the millennium scale\Nto the year scale --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.15,0:02:30.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to persuade you of this.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.31,0:02:33.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Until 10,000 years ago,\Nall humans lived as hunter-gatherers,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.95,0:02:36.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without permanent\Nsettlements or government.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.61,0:02:41.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is the state that's commonly\Nthought to be one of primordial harmony.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.97,0:02:45.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the archaeologist Lawrence Keeley,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.53,0:02:50.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looking at casualty rates\Namong contemporary hunter-gatherers,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.89,0:02:54.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is our best source of evidence\Nabout this way of life,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.11,0:02:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has shown a rather different conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.62,0:03:00.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here is a graph that he put together,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.32,0:03:03.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,showing the percentage\Nof male deaths due to warfare
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.44,0:03:07.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a number of foraging\Nor hunting and gathering societies.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.81,0:03:14.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The red bars correspond\Nto the likelihood that a man will die
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.22,0:03:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the hands of another man,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.74,0:03:18.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as opposed to passing away\Nof natural causes,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.68,0:03:22.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a variety of foraging societies\Nin the New Guinea highlands
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.94,0:03:24.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the Amazon rain forest.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.89,0:03:28.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they range from a rate of almost\Na 60 percent chance that a man will die
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.53,0:03:29.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the hands of another man
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.92,0:03:34.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to, in the case of the Gebusi,\Nonly a 15 percent chance.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.20,0:03:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The tiny little blue bar\Nin the lower left-hand corner
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.29,0:03:40.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,plots the corresponding statistic\Nfrom the United States and Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.88,0:03:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the 20th century,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.22,0:03:45.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it includes all the deaths\Nof both World Wars.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.92,0:03:51.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the death rate in tribal warfare\Nhad prevailed during the 20th century,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.10,0:03:54.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there would have been two billion deaths\Nrather than 100 million.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.84,0:03:57.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also on the millennium scale,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.65,0:04:01.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can look at the way of life\Nof early civilizations,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.08,0:04:04.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as the ones described in the Bible.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.17,0:04:07.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in this supposed source\Nof our moral values,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.00,0:04:12.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one can read descriptions\Nof what was expected in warfare,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.03,0:04:14.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as the following, from Numbers 31:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.79,0:04:18.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"And they warred against the Midianites\Nas the Lord commanded Moses,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.09,0:04:20.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they slew all the males.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.29,0:04:23.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Moses said unto them,\N'Have you saved all the women alive?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.61,0:04:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, therefore, kill every male\Namong the little ones
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.67,0:04:29.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and kill every woman that hath known\Nman by lying with him,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.55,0:04:33.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but all the women children that have not\Nknown a man by lying with him,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.03,0:04:34.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,keep alive for yourselves.'"
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.55,0:04:39.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other words: kill the men,\Nkill the children.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.30,0:04:43.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you see any virgins, then you can keep\Nthem alive so that you can rape them.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.10,0:04:47.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you can find four or five passages\Nin the Bible of this ilk.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.70,0:04:53.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also in the Bible, one sees that the death\Npenalty was the accepted punishment
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.40,0:04:55.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for crimes such as homosexuality,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.39,0:04:59.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,adultery, blasphemy, idolatry,\Ntalking back to your parents --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.62,0:05:00.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.69,0:05:02.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and picking up sticks on the Sabbath.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.58,0:05:07.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, let's click the zoom lens down\None order of magnitude
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.64,0:05:09.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and look at the century scale.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.60,0:05:13.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, although we don't have\Nstatistics for warfare
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.52,0:05:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,throughout the Middle Ages\Nto modern times,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.75,0:05:17.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know just from conventional history
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.68,0:05:20.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the evidence\Nwas under our nose all along
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.50,0:05:24.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that there has been a reduction\Nin socially sanctioned forms of violence.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.97,0:05:29.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, any social history\Nwill reveal that mutilation and torture
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.46,0:05:31.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were routine forms of criminal punishment.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.63,0:05:34.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The kind of infraction today\Nthat would give you a fine,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.31,0:05:37.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in those days, would result\Nin your tongue being cut out,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.90,0:05:40.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your ears being cut off,\Nyou being blinded,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.28,0:05:42.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a hand being chopped off and so on.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.59,0:05:46.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There were numerous ingenious forms\Nof sadistic capital punishment:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.86,0:05:49.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,burning at the stake, disemboweling,\Nbreaking on the wheel,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.00,0:05:52.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,being pulled apart by horses and so on.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.81,0:05:57.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The death penalty was a sanction\Nfor a long list of nonviolent crimes:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.35,0:06:00.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,criticizing the king,\Nstealing a loaf of bread.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.63,0:06:04.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Slavery, of course,\Nwas the preferred labor-saving device,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.48,0:06:07.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and cruelty was a popular\Nform of entertainment.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.54,0:06:10.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Perhaps the most vivid example\Nwas the practice of cat burning,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.00,0:06:15.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which a cat was hoisted on a stage\Nand lowered in a sling into a fire,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.64,0:06:20.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the spectators shrieked in laughter\Nas the cat, howling in pain,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.79,0:06:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was burned to death.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.14,0:06:24.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What about one-on-one murder?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.100,0:06:26.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, there, there are good statistics,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.88,0:06:32.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because many municipalities\Nrecorded the cause of death.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.54,0:06:36.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The criminologist Manuel Eisner
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.59,0:06:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scoured all of the historical\Nrecords across Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.63,0:06:45.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for homicide rates in any village,\Nhamlet, town, county that he could find,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.15,0:06:47.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then he supplemented them\Nwith national data
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.57,0:06:49.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when nations started keeping statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.98,0:06:53.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He plotted on a logarithmic scale,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.00,0:07:00.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going from 100 deaths\Nper 100,000 people per year,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.100,0:07:05.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was approximately the rate\Nof homicide in the Middle Ages,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.44,0:07:08.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the figure plummets down
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.07,0:07:12.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to less than one homicide\Nper 100,000 people per year
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.96,0:07:16.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in seven or eight European countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.12,0:07:18.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, there is a slight\Nuptick in the 1960s.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.71,0:07:22.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The people who said that rock and roll\Nwould lead to the decline of moral values
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.57,0:07:24.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually had a grain of truth to that.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.00,0:07:29.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there was a decline from at least\Ntwo orders of magnitude in homicide
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.79,0:07:31.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the Middle Ages to the present,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.71,0:07:35.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the elbow occurred\Nin the early 16th century.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.75,0:07:39.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's click down now to the decade scale.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.29,0:07:43.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,According to nongovernmental organizations\Nthat keep such statistics,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.39,0:07:46.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,since 1945, in Europe and the Americas,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.26,0:07:49.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there has been a steep\Ndecline in interstate wars,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.00,0:07:52.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in deadly ethnic riots or pogroms
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.79,0:07:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in military coups,\Neven in South America.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.31,0:08:01.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Worldwide, there's been a steep decline\Nin deaths in interstate wars.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.57,0:08:06.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The yellow bars here show\Nthe number of deaths per war per year
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.21,0:08:08.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from 1950 to the present.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.66,0:08:11.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, as you can see,\Nthe death rate goes down
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.38,0:08:15.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from 65,000 deaths\Nper conflict per year in the 1950s
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.83,0:08:20.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to less than 2,000 deaths\Nper conflict per year in this decade,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.11,0:08:21.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as horrific as it is.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.57,0:08:24.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even in the year scale,\None can see a decline of violence.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.00,0:08:28.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since the end of the Cold War,\Nthere have been fewer civil wars,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.68,0:08:34.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fewer genocides -- indeed, a 90 percent\Nreduction since post-World War II highs --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.55,0:08:40.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and even a reversal of the 1960s uptick\Nin homicide and violent crime.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.14,0:08:43.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is from the FBI\Nuniform crime statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.79,0:08:47.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see that there's a fairly low\Nrate of violence in the '50s and the '60s,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.90,0:08:51.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then it soared upward for several decades
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.34,0:08:55.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and began a precipitous decline,\Nstarting in the 1990s,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.04,0:08:59.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that it went back to the level\Nthat was last enjoyed in 1960.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.00,0:09:02.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,President Clinton,\Nif you're here: thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.33,0:09:04.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.06,0:09:05.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is:
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.23,0:09:09.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why are so many people so wrong\Nabout something so important?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.45,0:09:11.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think there are a number of reasons.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.30,0:09:13.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of them is we have better reporting.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.24,0:09:16.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Associated Press\Nis a better chronicler of wars
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.95,0:09:18.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the surface of the earth
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.42,0:09:20.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than 16th-century monks were.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.35,0:09:21.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.41,0:09:22.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a cognitive illusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.84,0:09:24.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We cognitive psychologists know
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.94,0:09:30.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the easier it is to recall\Nspecific instances of something,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.27,0:09:32.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the higher the probability\Nthat you assign to it.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.00,0:09:37.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Things that we read about\Nin the paper with gory footage
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.19,0:09:41.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,burn into memory more than reports\Nof a lot more people dying
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.80,0:09:43.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their beds of old age.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.89,0:09:48.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are dynamics in the opinion\Nand advocacy markets;
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.18,0:09:53.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no one ever attracted advocates and donors
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.20,0:09:56.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by saying, "Things just seem to be\Ngetting better and better."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.20,0:09:57.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.31,0:09:59.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's guilt about our treatment\Nof native peoples
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.93,0:10:01.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in modern intellectual life,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.60,0:10:04.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and an unwillingness to acknowledge\Nthere could be anything good
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.73,0:10:06.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about Western culture.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.07,0:10:11.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, of course, our change in standards\Ncan outpace the change in behavior.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.66,0:10:13.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the reasons violence went down
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.88,0:10:17.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that people got sick of the carnage\Nand cruelty in their time.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.75,0:10:19.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a process\Nthat seems to be continuing,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.88,0:10:24.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if it outstrips behavior\Nby the standards of the day,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.15,0:10:27.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things always look more barbaric\Nthan they would have been
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.30,0:10:28.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by historic standards.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.87,0:10:31.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So today, we get exercised --\Nand rightly so --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.59,0:10:38.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if a handful of murderers get executed\Nby lethal injection in Texas
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.17,0:10:40.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after a 15-year appeal process.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.01,0:10:43.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We don't consider\Nthat a couple of hundred years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.100,0:10:48.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they may have been burned at the stake\Nfor criticizing the king after a trial
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.33,0:10:50.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that lasted 10 minutes,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.09,0:10:53.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and indeed, that that would have been\Nrepeated over and over again.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.39,0:10:55.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, we look at capital punishment
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.85,0:10:59.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as evidence of how low\Nour behavior can sink,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.39,0:11:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than how high\Nour standards have risen.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.78,0:11:05.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, why has violence declined?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.26,0:11:10.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No one really knows,\Nbut I have read four explanations,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.04,0:11:13.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of which, I think,\Nhave some grain of plausibility.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.53,0:11:16.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first is: maybe\NThomas Hobbes got it right.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.40,0:11:17.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He was the one who said
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.58,0:11:21.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that life in a state of nature\Nwas "solitary, poor, nasty,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.50,0:11:22.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,brutish and short."
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.01,0:11:24.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.06,0:11:26.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not because, he argued,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.38,0:11:29.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,humans have some\Nprimordial thirst for blood
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.31,0:11:32.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or aggressive instinct\Nor territorial imperative,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.79,0:11:35.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but because of the logic of anarchy.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.11,0:11:36.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a state of anarchy,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.29,0:11:40.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's a constant temptation\Nto invade your neighbors preemptively,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.18,0:11:41.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before they invade you.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.66,0:11:44.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,More recently, Thomas Schelling\Ngives the analogy
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.18,0:11:46.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a homeowner who hears\Na rustling in the basement.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.79,0:11:49.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Being a good American,\Nhe has a pistol in the nightstand,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.81,0:11:51.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pulls out his gun, walks down the stairs.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.94,0:11:55.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what does he see but a burglar\Nwith a gun in his hand?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.09,0:11:56.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, each one of them is thinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.75,0:12:00.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I don't really want to kill\Nthat guy, but he's about to kill me.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.12,0:12:04.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe I had better shoot him\Nbefore he shoots me,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.28,0:12:06.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially since,\Neven if he doesn't want to kill me,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.79,0:12:10.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he's probably worrying right now\Nthat I might kill him before he kills me."
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.54,0:12:11.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so on.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.72,0:12:16.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hunter-gatherer peoples explicitly\Ngo through this train of thought
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.98,0:12:20.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and will often raid their neighbors\Nout of fear of being raided first.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.63,0:12:25.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, one way of dealing\Nwith this problem is by deterrence.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.70,0:12:29.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You don't strike first, but you have\Na publicly announced policy
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.00,0:12:33.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you will retaliate savagely\Nif you are invaded.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.46,0:12:38.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The only thing is that it's liable\Nto having its bluff called,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:38.60,0:12:41.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and therefore can only work\Nif it's credible.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.94,0:12:46.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To make it credible, you must avenge\Nall insults and settle all scores,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.38,0:12:49.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which leads to the cycles\Nof bloody vendetta.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.57,0:12:52.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Life becomes an episode of "The Sopranos."
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.78,0:12:55.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hobbes's solution, "Leviathan,"
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.58,0:12:59.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that if authority\Nfor the legitimate use of violence
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.38,0:13:04.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was vested in a single democratic\Nagency -- a leviathan --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.08,0:13:07.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then such a state can reduce\Nthe temptation of attack,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.56,0:13:09.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because any kind of aggression\Nwill be punished,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.00,0:13:13.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leaving its profitability zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.85,0:13:17.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That would remove the temptation\Nto invade preemptively
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.10,0:13:19.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out of fear of them attacking you first.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.52,0:13:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It removes the need\Nfor a hair trigger for retaliation
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.04,0:13:25.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make your deterrent threat credible,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.37,0:13:28.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and therefore, it would lead\Nto a state of peace.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.22,0:13:32.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eisner -- the man who plotted\Nthe homicide rates
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.14,0:13:35.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you failed to see\Nin the earlier slide --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.42,0:13:39.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,argued that the timing\Nof the decline of homicide in Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.27,0:13:43.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,coincided with the rise\Nof centralized states.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.38,0:13:46.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's a bit of a support\Nfor the leviathan theory.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.27,0:13:50.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also supporting it is the fact\Nthat we today see eruptions of violence
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.37,0:13:54.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in zones of anarchy,\Nin failed states, collapsed empires,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.61,0:13:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,frontier regions, mafias,\Nstreet gangs and so on.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.77,0:14:02.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second explanation\Nis that in many times and places,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.83,0:14:06.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there is a widespread\Nsentiment that life is cheap.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.84,0:14:12.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In earlier times, when suffering and early\Ndeath were common in one's own life,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.34,0:14:16.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one has fewer compunctions\Nabout inflicting them on others.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.18,0:14:20.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as technology and economic efficiency\Nmake life longer and more pleasant,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.71,0:14:22.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one puts a higher value\Non life in general.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.00,0:14:26.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was an argument\Nfrom the political scientist James Payne.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.24,0:14:31.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A third explanation invokes\Nthe concept of a nonzero-sum game,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.76,0:14:36.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and was worked out in the book "Nonzero"\Nby the journalist Robert Wright.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.40,0:14:39.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wright points out that,\Nin certain circumstances,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.06,0:14:43.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cooperation or nonviolence can benefit\Nboth parties in an interaction,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.75,0:14:49.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as gains in trade\Nwhen two parties trade their surpluses
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.07,0:14:50.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and both come out ahead,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.79,0:14:53.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or when two parties lay down their arms
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.32,0:14:55.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and split the so-called peace dividend
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.40,0:14:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that results in them not having\Nto fight the whole time.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.85,0:15:01.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wright argues that technology\Nhas increased the number
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.64,0:15:05.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of positive-sum games\Nthat humans tend to be embroiled in,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.87,0:15:09.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by allowing the trade of goods,\Nservices and ideas
Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.45,0:15:12.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over longer distances\Nand among larger groups of people.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.89,0:15:16.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The result is that other people\Nbecome more valuable alive than dead,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:16.69,0:15:20.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and violence declines for selfish reasons.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:20.23,0:15:21.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As Wright put it,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.62,0:15:25.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Among the many reasons that I think\Nthat we should not bomb the Japanese
Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.53,0:15:27.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that they built my minivan."
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.16,0:15:28.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.32,0:15:33.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fourth explanation is captured\Nin the title of a book
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.44,0:15:36.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,called "The Expanding Circle,"\Nby the philosopher Peter Singer,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:37.00,0:15:42.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who argues that evolution bequeathed\Nhumans with a sense of empathy,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.24,0:15:48.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an ability to treat other people's\Ninterests as comparable to one's own.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:48.03,0:15:49.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unfortunately, by default,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.62,0:15:53.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we apply it only to a very narrow\Ncircle of friends and family.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.15,0:15:56.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People outside that circle\Nare treated as subhuman
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.26,0:15:58.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and can be exploited with impunity.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.83,0:16:02.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, over history,\Nthe circle has expanded.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.20,0:16:04.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One can see, in historical record,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.54,0:16:08.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it expanding from the village,\Nto the clan, to the tribe, to the nation,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:08.92,0:16:12.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to other races, to both sexes\Nand, in Singer's own arguments,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.41,0:16:15.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something that we should extend\Nto other sentient species.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.78,0:16:18.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question is:
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.14,0:16:20.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If this has happened,\Nwhat has powered that expansion?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.00,0:16:22.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there are a number of possibilities,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:22.99,0:16:25.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as increasing circles of reciprocity
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.89,0:16:28.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the sense that Robert\NWright argues for.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:28.69,0:16:30.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The logic of the Golden Rule --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.55,0:16:34.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more you think about\Nand interact with other people,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.16,0:16:41.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more you realize that it is untenable\Nto privilege your interests over theirs,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.15,0:16:43.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at least not if you want\Nthem to listen to you.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:43.39,0:16:47.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can't say that my interests\Nare special compared to yours
Dialogue: 0,0:16:47.44,0:16:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,any more than you can say
Dialogue: 0,0:16:48.72,0:16:52.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the particular spot that I'm standing on\Nis a unique part of the universe
Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.78,0:16:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I happen to be standing\Non it that very minute.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.43,0:17:00.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It may also be powered\Nby cosmopolitanism, by histories
Dialogue: 0,0:17:00.35,0:17:05.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and journalism and memoirs and realistic\Nfiction and travel and literacy,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:05.36,0:17:09.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which allows you to project yourself\Ninto the lives of other people
Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.22,0:17:12.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that formerly you may have\Ntreated as subhuman,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:12.18,0:17:17.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and also to realize the accidental\Ncontingency of your own station in life,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:17.12,0:17:19.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the sense that\N"There but for fortune go I."
Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.78,0:17:22.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whatever its causes,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:22.51,0:17:26.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the decline of violence, I think,\Nhas profound implications.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:26.23,0:17:29.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It should force us to ask not just,\N"Why is there war?"
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.50,0:17:32.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also, "Why is there peace?"
Dialogue: 0,0:17:32.12,0:17:34.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not just, "What are we doing wrong?"
Dialogue: 0,0:17:34.08,0:17:36.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also, "What have we been doing right?"
Dialogue: 0,0:17:36.78,0:17:38.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because we have been doing\Nsomething right,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.88,0:17:41.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it sure would be good\Nto find out what it is.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.30,0:17:42.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:42.52,0:17:49.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:17:52.07,0:17:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chris Anderson: I loved that talk.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:55.02,0:17:57.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think a lot of people\Nhere in the room would say
Dialogue: 0,0:17:57.44,0:18:00.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that that expansion\Nyou were talking about,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:00.55,0:18:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Peter Singer talks about,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:02.03,0:18:05.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is also driven just by technology,\Nby greater visibility of the other
Dialogue: 0,0:18:05.71,0:18:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the sense that the world\Nis therefore getting smaller.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:08.48,0:18:10.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, is that also a grain of truth?
Dialogue: 0,0:18:10.95,0:18:12.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Steven Pinker: Very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.34,0:18:14.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It would fit both in Wright's theory,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:14.75,0:18:18.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it allows us to enjoy\Nthe benefits of cooperation
Dialogue: 0,0:18:19.02,0:18:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over larger and larger circles.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:21.03,0:18:26.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But also, I think it helps us imagine\Nwhat it's like to be someone else.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:26.32,0:18:28.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think when you read\Nof these horrific tortures
Dialogue: 0,0:18:28.69,0:18:30.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that were common in the Middle Ages,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:30.46,0:18:32.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you think, "How could\Nthey possibly have done it,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.81,0:18:35.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how could they not have\Nempathized with the person
Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.20,0:18:36.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they're disemboweling?"
Dialogue: 0,0:18:36.59,0:18:41.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But clearly, as far as they're concerned,\Nthis is just an alien being
Dialogue: 0,0:18:41.14,0:18:43.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that does not have feelings\Nakin to their own.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:43.32,0:18:45.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anything, I think, that makes it easier
Dialogue: 0,0:18:45.23,0:18:47.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to imagine trading places\Nwith someone else
Dialogue: 0,0:18:47.68,0:18:50.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means that it increases\Nyour moral consideration
Dialogue: 0,0:18:50.46,0:18:51.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to that other person.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:51.69,0:18:54.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I'd love every news media\Nowner to hear that talk
Dialogue: 0,0:18:54.96,0:18:56.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at some point, it's so important.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:56.70,0:18:58.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Thank you.\NSP: My pleasure.