0:00:00.777,0:00:04.559 Images like this, from the Auschwitz[br]concentration camp, 0:00:04.583,0:00:08.706 have been seared into our consciousness[br]during the 20th century 0:00:08.730,0:00:14.620 and have given us[br]a new understanding of who we are, 0:00:14.644,0:00:17.843 where we've come from[br]and the times we live in. 0:00:17.867,0:00:21.464 During the 20th century,[br]we witnessed the atrocities 0:00:21.488,0:00:26.959 of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot,[br]Rwanda and other genocides, 0:00:26.983,0:00:30.460 and even though the 21st century[br]is only seven years old, 0:00:30.484,0:00:34.285 we have already witnessed[br]an ongoing genocide in Darfur 0:00:34.309,0:00:36.507 and the daily horrors of Iraq. 0:00:37.087,0:00:40.671 This has led to a common[br]understanding of our situation, 0:00:40.695,0:00:43.808 namely, that modernity[br]has brought us terrible violence, 0:00:43.832,0:00:47.100 and perhaps that native peoples[br]lived in a state of harmony 0:00:47.124,0:00:50.562 that we have departed from, to our peril. 0:00:50.586,0:00:54.506 Here is an example[br]from an op-ed on Thanksgiving, 0:00:54.530,0:00:56.682 in the "Boston Globe"[br]a couple of years ago, 0:00:56.706,0:01:00.085 where the writer wrote,[br]"The Indian life was a difficult one, 0:01:00.109,0:01:01.976 but there were no employment problems, 0:01:02.000,0:01:05.023 community harmony was strong,[br]substance abuse unknown, 0:01:05.047,0:01:06.697 crime nearly nonexistent. 0:01:06.721,0:01:10.547 What warfare there was between tribes[br]was largely ritualistic 0:01:10.571,0:01:13.932 and seldom resulted in indiscriminate[br]or wholesale slaughter." 0:01:13.956,0:01:16.451 Now you're all familiar with this treacle. 0:01:16.475,0:01:18.780 We teach it to our children. 0:01:18.804,0:01:21.927 We hear it on television[br]and in storybooks. 0:01:21.951,0:01:26.724 Now, the original title of this session[br]was, "Everything You Know is Wrong," 0:01:26.748,0:01:28.343 and I'm going to present evidence 0:01:28.367,0:01:31.346 that this particular part[br]of our common understanding is wrong, 0:01:31.370,0:01:35.452 that, in fact, our ancestors[br]were far more violent than we are, 0:01:35.476,0:01:39.239 that violence has been in decline[br]for long stretches of time, 0:01:39.263,0:01:42.317 and that today, we are probably[br]living in the most peaceful time 0:01:42.341,0:01:44.157 in our species's existence. 0:01:44.181,0:01:46.801 Now in the decade of Darfur and Iraq, 0:01:46.825,0:01:51.790 a statement like that might seem somewhere[br]between hallucinatory and obscene, 0:01:51.814,0:01:57.910 but I'm going to try to convince you[br]that that is the correct picture. 0:01:57.934,0:02:01.002 The decline of violence[br]is a fractal phenomenon. 0:02:01.026,0:02:04.672 You can see it over millennia,[br]over centuries, over decades 0:02:04.696,0:02:06.183 and over years, 0:02:06.207,0:02:08.535 although there seems[br]to have been a tipping point 0:02:08.559,0:02:11.908 at the onset of the age of reason[br]in the 16th century. 0:02:11.932,0:02:15.539 One sees it all over the world,[br]although not homogeneously. 0:02:15.563,0:02:17.881 It's especially evident in the West, 0:02:17.905,0:02:21.817 beginning with England and Holland[br]around the time of the Enlightenment. 0:02:21.841,0:02:25.809 Let me take you on a journey[br]of several powers of 10 -- 0:02:25.833,0:02:28.127 from the millennium scale[br]to the year scale -- 0:02:28.151,0:02:30.282 to try to persuade you of this. 0:02:30.306,0:02:33.930 Until 10,000 years ago,[br]all humans lived as hunter-gatherers, 0:02:33.954,0:02:36.582 without permanent[br]settlements or government. 0:02:36.606,0:02:41.945 And this is the state that's commonly[br]thought to be one of primordial harmony. 0:02:41.969,0:02:45.507 But the archaeologist Lawrence Keeley, 0:02:45.531,0:02:50.870 looking at casualty rates[br]among contemporary hunter-gatherers, 0:02:50.894,0:02:54.082 which is our best source of evidence[br]about this way of life, 0:02:54.106,0:02:56.600 has shown a rather different conclusion. 0:02:56.624,0:03:00.301 Here is a graph that he put together, 0:03:00.325,0:03:03.418 showing the percentage[br]of male deaths due to warfare 0:03:03.442,0:03:07.785 in a number of foraging[br]or hunting and gathering societies. 0:03:07.809,0:03:14.197 The red bars correspond[br]to the likelihood that a man will die 0:03:14.221,0:03:15.716 at the hands of another man, 0:03:15.740,0:03:18.652 as opposed to passing away[br]of natural causes, 0:03:18.676,0:03:22.917 in a variety of foraging societies[br]in the New Guinea highlands 0:03:22.941,0:03:24.865 and the Amazon rain forest. 0:03:24.889,0:03:28.510 And they range from a rate of almost[br]a 60 percent chance that a man will die 0:03:28.534,0:03:29.898 at the hands of another man 0:03:29.922,0:03:34.177 to, in the case of the Gebusi,[br]only a 15 percent chance. 0:03:34.201,0:03:37.269 The tiny little blue bar[br]in the lower left-hand corner 0:03:37.293,0:03:40.856 plots the corresponding statistic[br]from the United States and Europe 0:03:40.880,0:03:42.194 in the 20th century, 0:03:42.218,0:03:45.893 and it includes all the deaths[br]of both World Wars. 0:03:45.917,0:03:51.080 If the death rate in tribal warfare[br]had prevailed during the 20th century, 0:03:51.104,0:03:54.976 there would have been two billion deaths[br]rather than 100 million. 0:03:55.844,0:03:57.629 Also on the millennium scale, 0:03:57.653,0:04:01.051 we can look at the way of life[br]of early civilizations, 0:04:01.075,0:04:04.142 such as the ones described in the Bible. 0:04:04.166,0:04:07.976 And in this supposed source[br]of our moral values, 0:04:08.000,0:04:12.010 one can read descriptions[br]of what was expected in warfare, 0:04:12.034,0:04:14.762 such as the following, from Numbers 31: 0:04:14.786,0:04:18.068 "And they warred against the Midianites[br]as the Lord commanded Moses, 0:04:18.092,0:04:20.270 and they slew all the males. 0:04:20.294,0:04:23.586 And Moses said unto them,[br]'Have you saved all the women alive? 0:04:23.610,0:04:26.644 Now, therefore, kill every male[br]among the little ones 0:04:26.668,0:04:29.523 and kill every woman that hath known[br]man by lying with him, 0:04:29.547,0:04:33.010 but all the women children that have not[br]known a man by lying with him, 0:04:33.034,0:04:34.527 keep alive for yourselves.'" 0:04:34.551,0:04:39.281 In other words: kill the men,[br]kill the children. 0:04:39.305,0:04:43.072 If you see any virgins, then you can keep[br]them alive so that you can rape them. 0:04:43.096,0:04:47.675 And you can find four or five passages[br]in the Bible of this ilk. 0:04:47.699,0:04:53.379 Also in the Bible, one sees that the death[br]penalty was the accepted punishment 0:04:53.403,0:04:55.365 for crimes such as homosexuality, 0:04:55.389,0:04:59.591 adultery, blasphemy, idolatry,[br]talking back to your parents -- 0:04:59.615,0:05:00.668 (Laughter) 0:05:00.692,0:05:02.822 and picking up sticks on the Sabbath. 0:05:03.576,0:05:07.611 Well, let's click the zoom lens down[br]one order of magnitude 0:05:07.635,0:05:09.577 and look at the century scale. 0:05:09.601,0:05:13.492 Now, although we don't have[br]statistics for warfare 0:05:13.516,0:05:15.722 throughout the Middle Ages[br]to modern times, 0:05:15.746,0:05:17.651 we know just from conventional history 0:05:17.675,0:05:20.475 that the evidence[br]was under our nose all along 0:05:20.499,0:05:24.950 that there has been a reduction[br]in socially sanctioned forms of violence. 0:05:24.974,0:05:29.440 For example, any social history[br]will reveal that mutilation and torture 0:05:29.464,0:05:31.609 were routine forms of criminal punishment. 0:05:31.633,0:05:34.290 The kind of infraction today[br]that would give you a fine, 0:05:34.314,0:05:37.873 in those days, would result[br]in your tongue being cut out, 0:05:37.897,0:05:40.253 your ears being cut off,[br]you being blinded, 0:05:40.277,0:05:42.562 a hand being chopped off and so on. 0:05:42.586,0:05:46.841 There were numerous ingenious forms[br]of sadistic capital punishment: 0:05:46.865,0:05:49.976 burning at the stake, disemboweling,[br]breaking on the wheel, 0:05:50.000,0:05:52.785 being pulled apart by horses and so on. 0:05:52.809,0:05:57.330 The death penalty was a sanction[br]for a long list of nonviolent crimes: 0:05:57.354,0:06:00.606 criticizing the king,[br]stealing a loaf of bread. 0:06:00.630,0:06:04.451 Slavery, of course,[br]was the preferred labor-saving device, 0:06:04.475,0:06:07.518 and cruelty was a popular[br]form of entertainment. 0:06:07.542,0:06:10.976 Perhaps the most vivid example[br]was the practice of cat burning, 0:06:11.000,0:06:15.611 in which a cat was hoisted on a stage[br]and lowered in a sling into a fire, 0:06:15.635,0:06:20.769 and the spectators shrieked in laughter[br]as the cat, howling in pain, 0:06:20.793,0:06:22.360 was burned to death. 0:06:23.138,0:06:24.971 What about one-on-one murder? 0:06:24.995,0:06:26.859 Well, there, there are good statistics, 0:06:26.883,0:06:32.518 because many municipalities[br]recorded the cause of death. 0:06:32.542,0:06:36.563 The criminologist Manuel Eisner 0:06:36.587,0:06:39.603 scoured all of the historical[br]records across Europe 0:06:39.627,0:06:45.123 for homicide rates in any village,[br]hamlet, town, county that he could find, 0:06:45.147,0:06:47.548 and then he supplemented them[br]with national data 0:06:47.572,0:06:49.961 when nations started keeping statistics. 0:06:49.985,0:06:53.976 He plotted on a logarithmic scale, 0:06:54.000,0:07:00.975 going from 100 deaths[br]per 100,000 people per year, 0:07:00.999,0:07:05.418 which was approximately the rate[br]of homicide in the Middle Ages, 0:07:05.442,0:07:08.043 and the figure plummets down 0:07:08.067,0:07:12.939 to less than one homicide[br]per 100,000 people per year 0:07:12.963,0:07:16.094 in seven or eight European countries. 0:07:16.118,0:07:18.689 Then, there is a slight[br]uptick in the 1960s. 0:07:18.713,0:07:22.549 The people who said that rock and roll[br]would lead to the decline of moral values 0:07:22.573,0:07:24.976 actually had a grain of truth to that. 0:07:25.000,0:07:29.762 But there was a decline from at least[br]two orders of magnitude in homicide 0:07:29.786,0:07:31.690 from the Middle Ages to the present, 0:07:31.714,0:07:35.929 and the elbow occurred[br]in the early 16th century. 0:07:36.746,0:07:39.262 Let's click down now to the decade scale. 0:07:39.286,0:07:43.367 According to nongovernmental organizations[br]that keep such statistics, 0:07:43.391,0:07:46.234 since 1945, in Europe and the Americas, 0:07:46.258,0:07:49.976 there has been a steep[br]decline in interstate wars, 0:07:50.000,0:07:52.763 in deadly ethnic riots or pogroms 0:07:52.787,0:07:56.284 and in military coups,[br]even in South America. 0:07:56.308,0:08:01.542 Worldwide, there's been a steep decline[br]in deaths in interstate wars. 0:08:01.566,0:08:06.186 The yellow bars here show[br]the number of deaths per war per year 0:08:06.210,0:08:08.634 from 1950 to the present. 0:08:08.658,0:08:11.361 And, as you can see,[br]the death rate goes down 0:08:11.385,0:08:15.809 from 65,000 deaths[br]per conflict per year in the 1950s 0:08:15.833,0:08:20.088 to less than 2,000 deaths[br]per conflict per year in this decade, 0:08:20.112,0:08:21.549 as horrific as it is. 0:08:21.573,0:08:24.976 Even in the year scale,[br]one can see a decline of violence. 0:08:25.000,0:08:28.657 Since the end of the Cold War,[br]there have been fewer civil wars, 0:08:28.681,0:08:34.527 fewer genocides -- indeed, a 90 percent[br]reduction since post-World War II highs -- 0:08:34.551,0:08:40.113 and even a reversal of the 1960s uptick[br]in homicide and violent crime. 0:08:40.137,0:08:43.770 This is from the FBI[br]uniform crime statistics. 0:08:43.794,0:08:47.880 You can see that there's a fairly low[br]rate of violence in the '50s and the '60s, 0:08:47.904,0:08:51.318 then it soared upward for several decades 0:08:51.342,0:08:55.018 and began a precipitous decline,[br]starting in the 1990s, 0:08:55.042,0:08:59.976 so that it went back to the level[br]that was last enjoyed in 1960. 0:09:00.000,0:09:02.305 President Clinton,[br]if you're here: thank you. 0:09:02.329,0:09:04.035 (Laughter) 0:09:04.059,0:09:05.210 So the question is: 0:09:05.234,0:09:09.429 Why are so many people so wrong[br]about something so important? 0:09:09.453,0:09:11.279 I think there are a number of reasons. 0:09:11.303,0:09:13.216 One of them is we have better reporting. 0:09:13.240,0:09:16.930 The Associated Press[br]is a better chronicler of wars 0:09:16.954,0:09:18.395 over the surface of the earth 0:09:18.419,0:09:20.327 than 16th-century monks were. 0:09:20.351,0:09:21.387 (Laughter) 0:09:21.411,0:09:22.819 There's a cognitive illusion. 0:09:22.843,0:09:24.921 We cognitive psychologists know 0:09:24.945,0:09:30.249 that the easier it is to recall[br]specific instances of something, 0:09:30.273,0:09:32.976 the higher the probability[br]that you assign to it. 0:09:33.000,0:09:37.163 Things that we read about[br]in the paper with gory footage 0:09:37.187,0:09:41.780 burn into memory more than reports[br]of a lot more people dying 0:09:41.804,0:09:43.544 in their beds of old age. 0:09:44.886,0:09:48.161 There are dynamics in the opinion[br]and advocacy markets; 0:09:48.185,0:09:53.180 no one ever attracted advocates and donors 0:09:53.204,0:09:56.177 by saying, "Things just seem to be[br]getting better and better." 0:09:56.201,0:09:57.287 (Laughter) 0:09:57.311,0:09:59.907 There's guilt about our treatment[br]of native peoples 0:09:59.931,0:10:01.581 in modern intellectual life, 0:10:01.605,0:10:04.702 and an unwillingness to acknowledge[br]there could be anything good 0:10:04.726,0:10:06.042 about Western culture. 0:10:06.066,0:10:11.636 And, of course, our change in standards[br]can outpace the change in behavior. 0:10:11.660,0:10:13.851 One of the reasons violence went down 0:10:13.875,0:10:17.727 is that people got sick of the carnage[br]and cruelty in their time. 0:10:17.751,0:10:19.851 That's a process[br]that seems to be continuing, 0:10:19.875,0:10:24.130 but if it outstrips behavior[br]by the standards of the day, 0:10:24.154,0:10:27.277 things always look more barbaric[br]than they would have been 0:10:27.301,0:10:28.844 by historic standards. 0:10:28.868,0:10:31.570 So today, we get exercised --[br]and rightly so -- 0:10:31.594,0:10:38.149 if a handful of murderers get executed[br]by lethal injection in Texas 0:10:38.173,0:10:40.987 after a 15-year appeal process. 0:10:41.011,0:10:43.972 We don't consider[br]that a couple of hundred years ago, 0:10:43.996,0:10:48.303 they may have been burned at the stake[br]for criticizing the king after a trial 0:10:48.327,0:10:50.066 that lasted 10 minutes, 0:10:50.090,0:10:53.365 and indeed, that that would have been[br]repeated over and over again. 0:10:53.389,0:10:55.825 Today, we look at capital punishment 0:10:55.849,0:10:59.364 as evidence of how low[br]our behavior can sink, 0:10:59.388,0:11:02.001 rather than how high[br]our standards have risen. 0:11:02.777,0:11:05.231 Well, why has violence declined? 0:11:05.255,0:11:10.015 No one really knows,[br]but I have read four explanations, 0:11:10.039,0:11:13.508 all of which, I think,[br]have some grain of plausibility. 0:11:13.532,0:11:16.376 The first is: maybe[br]Thomas Hobbes got it right. 0:11:16.400,0:11:17.557 He was the one who said 0:11:17.581,0:11:21.478 that life in a state of nature[br]was "solitary, poor, nasty, 0:11:21.502,0:11:22.989 brutish and short." 0:11:23.013,0:11:24.038 (Laughter) 0:11:24.062,0:11:26.356 Not because, he argued, 0:11:26.380,0:11:29.282 humans have some[br]primordial thirst for blood 0:11:29.306,0:11:32.762 or aggressive instinct[br]or territorial imperative, 0:11:32.786,0:11:35.089 but because of the logic of anarchy. 0:11:35.113,0:11:36.270 In a state of anarchy, 0:11:36.294,0:11:40.153 there's a constant temptation[br]to invade your neighbors preemptively, 0:11:40.177,0:11:41.639 before they invade you. 0:11:41.663,0:11:44.161 More recently, Thomas Schelling[br]gives the analogy 0:11:44.185,0:11:46.765 of a homeowner who hears[br]a rustling in the basement. 0:11:46.789,0:11:49.787 Being a good American,[br]he has a pistol in the nightstand, 0:11:49.811,0:11:51.921 pulls out his gun, walks down the stairs. 0:11:51.945,0:11:55.063 And what does he see but a burglar[br]with a gun in his hand? 0:11:55.087,0:11:56.724 Now, each one of them is thinking, 0:11:56.748,0:12:00.096 "I don't really want to kill[br]that guy, but he's about to kill me. 0:12:00.120,0:12:04.254 Maybe I had better shoot him[br]before he shoots me, 0:12:04.278,0:12:06.770 especially since,[br]even if he doesn't want to kill me, 0:12:06.794,0:12:10.514 he's probably worrying right now[br]that I might kill him before he kills me." 0:12:10.538,0:12:11.696 And so on. 0:12:11.720,0:12:16.952 Hunter-gatherer peoples explicitly[br]go through this train of thought 0:12:16.976,0:12:20.854 and will often raid their neighbors[br]out of fear of being raided first. 0:12:21.631,0:12:25.678 Now, one way of dealing[br]with this problem is by deterrence. 0:12:25.702,0:12:29.976 You don't strike first, but you have[br]a publicly announced policy 0:12:30.000,0:12:33.433 that you will retaliate savagely[br]if you are invaded. 0:12:33.457,0:12:38.573 The only thing is that it's liable[br]to having its bluff called, 0:12:38.597,0:12:41.916 and therefore can only work[br]if it's credible. 0:12:41.940,0:12:46.354 To make it credible, you must avenge[br]all insults and settle all scores, 0:12:46.378,0:12:49.542 which leads to the cycles[br]of bloody vendetta. 0:12:49.566,0:12:52.759 Life becomes an episode of "The Sopranos." 0:12:52.783,0:12:55.557 Hobbes's solution, "Leviathan," 0:12:55.581,0:12:59.359 was that if authority[br]for the legitimate use of violence 0:12:59.383,0:13:04.059 was vested in a single democratic[br]agency -- a leviathan -- 0:13:04.083,0:13:07.541 then such a state can reduce[br]the temptation of attack, 0:13:07.565,0:13:09.976 because any kind of aggression[br]will be punished, 0:13:10.000,0:13:13.824 leaving its profitability zero. 0:13:13.848,0:13:17.071 That would remove the temptation[br]to invade preemptively 0:13:17.095,0:13:19.500 out of fear of them attacking you first. 0:13:19.524,0:13:23.019 It removes the need[br]for a hair trigger for retaliation 0:13:23.043,0:13:25.350 to make your deterrent threat credible, 0:13:25.374,0:13:28.191 and therefore, it would lead[br]to a state of peace. 0:13:28.215,0:13:32.111 Eisner -- the man who plotted[br]the homicide rates 0:13:32.135,0:13:35.396 that you failed to see[br]in the earlier slide -- 0:13:35.420,0:13:39.249 argued that the timing[br]of the decline of homicide in Europe 0:13:39.273,0:13:43.361 coincided with the rise[br]of centralized states. 0:13:43.385,0:13:46.242 So that's a bit of a support[br]for the leviathan theory. 0:13:46.266,0:13:50.344 Also supporting it is the fact[br]that we today see eruptions of violence 0:13:50.368,0:13:54.589 in zones of anarchy,[br]in failed states, collapsed empires, 0:13:54.613,0:13:58.820 frontier regions, mafias,[br]street gangs and so on. 0:13:59.770,0:14:02.808 The second explanation[br]is that in many times and places, 0:14:02.832,0:14:06.811 there is a widespread[br]sentiment that life is cheap. 0:14:06.835,0:14:12.317 In earlier times, when suffering and early[br]death were common in one's own life, 0:14:12.341,0:14:16.157 one has fewer compunctions[br]about inflicting them on others. 0:14:16.181,0:14:20.688 And as technology and economic efficiency[br]make life longer and more pleasant, 0:14:20.712,0:14:22.976 one puts a higher value[br]on life in general. 0:14:23.000,0:14:26.531 This was an argument[br]from the political scientist James Payne. 0:14:27.244,0:14:31.732 A third explanation invokes[br]the concept of a nonzero-sum game, 0:14:31.756,0:14:36.376 and was worked out in the book "Nonzero"[br]by the journalist Robert Wright. 0:14:36.400,0:14:39.032 Wright points out that,[br]in certain circumstances, 0:14:39.056,0:14:43.722 cooperation or nonviolence can benefit[br]both parties in an interaction, 0:14:43.746,0:14:49.044 such as gains in trade[br]when two parties trade their surpluses 0:14:49.068,0:14:50.770 and both come out ahead, 0:14:50.794,0:14:53.291 or when two parties lay down their arms 0:14:53.315,0:14:55.378 and split the so-called peace dividend 0:14:55.402,0:14:58.825 that results in them not having[br]to fight the whole time. 0:14:58.849,0:15:01.613 Wright argues that technology[br]has increased the number 0:15:01.637,0:15:05.849 of positive-sum games[br]that humans tend to be embroiled in, 0:15:05.873,0:15:09.430 by allowing the trade of goods,[br]services and ideas 0:15:09.454,0:15:12.868 over longer distances[br]and among larger groups of people. 0:15:12.892,0:15:16.665 The result is that other people[br]become more valuable alive than dead, 0:15:16.689,0:15:20.209 and violence declines for selfish reasons. 0:15:20.233,0:15:21.600 As Wright put it, 0:15:21.624,0:15:25.505 "Among the many reasons that I think[br]that we should not bomb the Japanese 0:15:25.529,0:15:27.140 is that they built my minivan." 0:15:27.164,0:15:28.822 (Laughter) 0:15:29.321,0:15:33.411 The fourth explanation is captured[br]in the title of a book 0:15:33.435,0:15:36.976 called "The Expanding Circle,"[br]by the philosopher Peter Singer, 0:15:37.000,0:15:42.215 who argues that evolution bequeathed[br]humans with a sense of empathy, 0:15:42.239,0:15:48.008 an ability to treat other people's[br]interests as comparable to one's own. 0:15:48.032,0:15:49.591 Unfortunately, by default, 0:15:49.615,0:15:53.130 we apply it only to a very narrow[br]circle of friends and family. 0:15:53.154,0:15:56.233 People outside that circle[br]are treated as subhuman 0:15:56.257,0:15:58.807 and can be exploited with impunity. 0:15:58.831,0:16:02.173 But, over history,[br]the circle has expanded. 0:16:02.197,0:16:04.512 One can see, in historical record, 0:16:04.536,0:16:08.897 it expanding from the village,[br]to the clan, to the tribe, to the nation, 0:16:08.921,0:16:12.390 to other races, to both sexes[br]and, in Singer's own arguments, 0:16:12.414,0:16:15.756 something that we should extend[br]to other sentient species. 0:16:15.780,0:16:18.118 So the question is: 0:16:18.142,0:16:20.976 If this has happened,[br]what has powered that expansion? 0:16:21.000,0:16:22.970 And there are a number of possibilities, 0:16:22.994,0:16:25.866 such as increasing circles of reciprocity 0:16:25.890,0:16:28.664 in the sense that Robert[br]Wright argues for. 0:16:28.688,0:16:30.528 The logic of the Golden Rule -- 0:16:30.552,0:16:34.133 the more you think about[br]and interact with other people, 0:16:34.157,0:16:41.127 the more you realize that it is untenable[br]to privilege your interests over theirs, 0:16:41.151,0:16:43.363 at least not if you want[br]them to listen to you. 0:16:43.387,0:16:47.412 You can't say that my interests[br]are special compared to yours 0:16:47.436,0:16:48.699 any more than you can say 0:16:48.723,0:16:52.761 the particular spot that I'm standing on[br]is a unique part of the universe 0:16:52.785,0:16:56.405 because I happen to be standing[br]on it that very minute. 0:16:56.429,0:17:00.330 It may also be powered[br]by cosmopolitanism, by histories 0:17:00.354,0:17:05.340 and journalism and memoirs and realistic[br]fiction and travel and literacy, 0:17:05.364,0:17:09.196 which allows you to project yourself[br]into the lives of other people 0:17:09.220,0:17:12.161 that formerly you may have[br]treated as subhuman, 0:17:12.185,0:17:17.093 and also to realize the accidental[br]contingency of your own station in life, 0:17:17.117,0:17:19.827 the sense that[br]"There but for fortune go I." 0:17:20.785,0:17:22.486 Whatever its causes, 0:17:22.510,0:17:26.207 the decline of violence, I think,[br]has profound implications. 0:17:26.231,0:17:29.475 It should force us to ask not just,[br]"Why is there war?" 0:17:29.499,0:17:32.096 but also, "Why is there peace?" 0:17:32.120,0:17:34.052 Not just, "What are we doing wrong?" 0:17:34.076,0:17:36.752 but also, "What have we been doing right?" 0:17:36.776,0:17:38.855 Because we have been doing[br]something right, 0:17:38.879,0:17:41.274 and it sure would be good[br]to find out what it is. 0:17:41.298,0:17:42.499 Thank you very much. 0:17:42.523,0:17:49.438 (Applause) 0:17:52.067,0:17:55.000 Chris Anderson: I loved that talk. 0:17:55.024,0:17:57.414 I think a lot of people[br]here in the room would say 0:17:57.438,0:18:00.523 that that expansion[br]you were talking about, 0:18:00.547,0:18:02.005 that Peter Singer talks about, 0:18:02.029,0:18:05.683 is also driven just by technology,[br]by greater visibility of the other 0:18:05.707,0:18:08.460 and the sense that the world[br]is therefore getting smaller. 0:18:08.484,0:18:10.925 I mean, is that also a grain of truth? 0:18:10.949,0:18:12.316 Steven Pinker: Very much. 0:18:12.340,0:18:14.730 It would fit both in Wright's theory, 0:18:14.754,0:18:18.996 that it allows us to enjoy[br]the benefits of cooperation 0:18:19.020,0:18:21.005 over larger and larger circles. 0:18:21.029,0:18:26.292 But also, I think it helps us imagine[br]what it's like to be someone else. 0:18:26.316,0:18:28.670 I think when you read[br]of these horrific tortures 0:18:28.694,0:18:30.441 that were common in the Middle Ages, 0:18:30.465,0:18:32.784 you think, "How could[br]they possibly have done it, 0:18:32.808,0:18:35.181 how could they not have[br]empathized with the person 0:18:35.205,0:18:36.567 that they're disemboweling?" 0:18:36.591,0:18:41.115 But clearly, as far as they're concerned,[br]this is just an alien being 0:18:41.139,0:18:43.294 that does not have feelings[br]akin to their own. 0:18:43.318,0:18:45.208 Anything, I think, that makes it easier 0:18:45.232,0:18:47.652 to imagine trading places[br]with someone else 0:18:47.676,0:18:50.436 means that it increases[br]your moral consideration 0:18:50.460,0:18:51.666 to that other person. 0:18:51.690,0:18:54.939 CA: I'd love every news media[br]owner to hear that talk 0:18:54.963,0:18:56.674 at some point, it's so important. 0:18:56.698,0:18:58.150 CA: Thank you.[br]SP: My pleasure.