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I told you three things last year.

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I told you that the statistics of the world

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have not been made properly available.

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Because of that, we still have the old mindset

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of developing in industrialized countries, which is wrong.

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And that animated graphics can make a difference.

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Things are changing

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and today, on the United Nations Statistic Division Home Page,

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it says, by first of May, full access to the databases.

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(Applause)

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And if I could share the image with you on the screen.

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So three things have happened.

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U.N. opened their statistic databases,

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and we have a new version of the software

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up working as a beta on the net,

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so you don't have to download it any longer.

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And let me repeat what you saw last year.

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The bubbles are the countries.

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Here you have the fertility rate -- the number of children per woman --

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and there you have the length of life in years.

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This is 1950 -- those were the industrialized countries,

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those were developing countries.

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At that time there was a "we" and "them."

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There was a huge difference in the world.

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But then it changed, and it went on quite well.

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And this is what happens.

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You can see how China is the red, big bubble.

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The blue there is India.

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And they go over all this -- I'm going to try to be

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a little more serious this year in showing you

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how things really changed.

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And it's Africa that stands out as the problem down here, doesn't it?

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Large families still, and the HIV epidemic

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brought down the countries like this.

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This is more or less what we saw last year,

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and this is how it will go on into the future.

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And I will talk on, is this possible?

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Because you see now, I presented statistics that don't exist.

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Because this is where we are.

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Will it be possible that this will happen?

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I cover my lifetime here, you know?

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I expect to live 100 years.

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And this is where we are today.

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Now could we look here instead at the economic situation in the world?

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And I would like to show that against child survival.

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We'll swap the axis.

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Here you have child mortality -- that is, survival --

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four kids dying there, 200 dying there.

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And this is GDP per capita on this axis.

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And this was 2007.

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And if I go back in time, I've added some historical statistics --

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here we go, here we go, here we go -- not so much statistics 100 years ago.

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Some countries still had statistics.

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We are looking down in the archive,

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and when we are down into 1820,

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there is only Austria and Sweden that can produce numbers.

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(Laughter)

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But they were down here. They had 1,000 dollars per person per year.

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And they lost one-fifth of their kids before their first birthday.

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So this is what happens in the world, if we play the entire world.

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How they got slowly richer and richer,

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and they add statistics.

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Isn't it beautiful when they get statistics?

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You see the importance of that?

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And here, children don't live longer.

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The last century, 1870, was bad for the kids in Europe,

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because most of this statistics is Europe.

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It was only by the turn of the century

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that more than 90 percent of the children survived their first year.

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This is India coming up, with the first data from India.

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And this is the United States moving away here, earning more money.

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And we will soon see China coming up in the very far end corner here.

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And it moves up with Mao Tse-Tung getting health,

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not getting so rich.

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There he died, then Deng Xiaoping brings money.

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It moves this way over here.

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And the bubbles keep moving up there,

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and this is what the world looks like today.

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(Applause)

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Let us have a look at the United States.

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We have a function here -- I can tell the world, "Stay where you are."

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And I take the United States -- we still want to see the background --

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I put them up like this, and now we go backwards.

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And we can see that the United States

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goes to the right of the mainstream.

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They are on the money side all the time.

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And down in 1915, the United States was a neighbor of India --

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present, contemporary India.

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And that means United States was richer,

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but lost more kids than India is doing today, proportionally.

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And look here -- compare to the Philippines of today.

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The Philippines of today has almost the same economy

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as the United States during the First World War.

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But we have to bring United States forward quite a while

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to find the same health of the United States

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as we have in the Philippines.

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About 1957 here, the health of the United States

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is the same as the Philippines.

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And this is the drama of this world which many call globalized,

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is that Asia, Arabic countries, Latin America,

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are much more ahead in being healthy, educated,

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having human resources than they are economically.

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There's a discrepancy in what's happening today

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in the emerging economies.

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There now, social benefits, social progress,

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are going ahead of economical progress.

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And 1957 -- the United States had the same economy as Chile has today.

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And how long do we have to bring United States

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to get the same health as Chile has today?

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I think we have to go, there -- we have 2001, or 2002 --

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the United States has the same health as Chile.

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Chile's catching up!

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Within some years Chile may have better child survival

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than the United States.

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This is really a change, that you have this lag

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of more or less 30, 40 years' difference on the health.

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And behind the health is the educational level.

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And there's a lot of infrastructure things,

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and general human resources are there.

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Now we can take away this --

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and I would like to show you the rate of speed,

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the rate of change, how fast they have gone.

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And we go back to 1920, and I want to look at Japan.

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And I want to look at Sweden and the United States.

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And I'm going to stage a race here

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between this sort of yellowish Ford here

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and the red Toyota down there,

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and the brownish Volvo.

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(Laughter)

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And here we go. Here we go.

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The Toyota has a very bad start down here, you can see,

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and the United States Ford is going off-road there.

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And the Volvo is doing quite fine.

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This is the war. The Toyota got off track, and now

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the Toyota is coming on the healthier side of Sweden --

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can you see that?

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And they are taking over Sweden,

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and they are now healthier than Sweden.

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That's the part where I sold the Volvo and bought the Toyota.

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(Laughter)

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And now we can see that the rate of change was enormous in Japan.

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They really caught up.

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And this changes gradually.

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We have to look over generations to understand it.

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And let me show you my own sort of family history --

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we made these graphs here.

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And this is the same thing, money down there, and health, you know?

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And this is my family.

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This is Sweden, 1830, when my great-great-grandma was born.

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Sweden was like Sierra Leone today.

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And this is when great-grandma was born, 1863.

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And Sweden was like Mozambique.

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And this is when my grandma was born, 1891.

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She took care of me as a child,

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so I'm not talking about statistic now --

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now it's oral history in my family.

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That's when I believe statistics,

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when it's grandma-verified statistics.

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(Laughter)

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I think it's the best way of verifying historical statistics.

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Sweden was like Ghana.

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It's interesting to see the enormous diversity

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within sub-Saharan Africa.

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I told you last year, I'll tell you again,

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my mother was born in Egypt, and I -- who am I?

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I'm the Mexican in the family.

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And my daughter, she was born in Chile,

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and the grand-daughter was born in Singapore,

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now the healthiest country on this Earth.

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It bypassed Sweden about two to three years ago,

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with better child survival.

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But they're very small, you know?

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They're so close to the hospital we can never

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beat them out in these forests.

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(Laughter)

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But homage to Singapore.

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Singapore is the best one.

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Now this looks also like a very good story.

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But it's not really that easy, that it's all a good story.

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Because I have to show you one of the other facilities.

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We can also make the color here represent the variable --

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and what am I choosing here?

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Carbon-dioxide emission, metric ton per capita.

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This is 1962, and United States was emitting 16 tons per person.

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And China was emitting 0.6,

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and India was emitting 0.32 tons per capita.

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And what happens when we moved on?

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Well, you see the nice story of getting richer

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and getting healthier --

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everyone did it at the cost of emission of carbon dioxide.

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There is no one who has done it so far.

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And we don't have all the updated data

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any longer, because this is really hot data today.

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And there we are, 2001.

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And in the discussion I attended with global leaders, you know,

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many say now the problem is that the emerging economies,

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they are getting out too much carbon dioxide.

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The Minister of the Environment of India said,

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"Well, you were the one who caused the problem."

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The OECD countries -- the high-income countries --

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they were the ones who caused the climate change.

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"But we forgive you, because you didn't know it.

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But from now on, we count per capita.

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From now on we count per capita.

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And everyone is responsible for the per capita emission."

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This really shows you, we have not seen good economic

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and health progress anywhere in the world

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without destroying the climate.

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And this is really what has to be changed.

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I've been criticized for showing you a too positive image of the world,

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but I don't think it's like this.

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The world is quite a messy place.

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This we can call Dollar Street.

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Everyone lives on this street here.

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What they earn here -- what number they live on --

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is how much they earn per day.

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This family earns about one dollar per day.

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We drive up the street here,

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we find a family here which earns about two to three dollars a day.

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And we drive away here -- we find the first garden in the street,

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and they earn 10 to 50 dollars a day.

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And how do they live?

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If we look at the bed here, we can see

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that they sleep on a rug on the floor.

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This is what poverty line is --

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80 percent of the family income is just to cover the energy needs,

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the food for the day.

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This is two to five dollars. You have a bed.

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And here it's a much nicer bedroom, you can see.

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I lectured on this for Ikea, and they wanted to see

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the sofa immediately here.

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(Laughter)

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And this is the sofa, how it will emerge from there.

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And the interesting thing, when you go around here in the photo panorama,

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you see the family still sitting on the floor there.

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Although there is a sofa,

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if you watch in the kitchen, you can see that

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the great difference for women does not come between one to 10 dollars.

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It comes beyond here, when you really can get

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good working conditions in the family.

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And if you really want to see the difference,

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you look at the toilet over here.

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This can change. This can change.

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These are all pictures and images from Africa,

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and it can become much better.

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We can get out of poverty.

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My own research has not been in IT or anything like this.

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I spent 20 years in interviews with African farmers

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who were on the verge of famine.

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And this is the result of the farmers-needs research.

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The nice thing here is that you can't see

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who are the researchers in this picture.

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That's when research functions in poor societies --

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you must really live with the people.

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When you're in poverty, everything is about survival.

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It's about having food.

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And these two young farmers, they are girls now --

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because the parents are dead from HIV and AIDS --

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they discuss with a trained agronomist.

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This is one of the best agronomists in Malawi, Junatambe Kumbira,

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and he's discussing what sort of cassava they will plant --

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the best converter of sunshine to food that man has found.

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And they are very, very eagerly interested to get advice,

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and that's to survive in poverty.

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That's one context.

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Getting out of poverty.

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The women told us one thing. "Get us technology.

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We hate this mortar, to stand hours and hours.

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Get us a mill so that we can mill our flour,

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then we will be able to pay for the rest ourselves."

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Technology will bring you out of poverty,

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but there's a need for a market to get away from poverty.

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And this woman is very happy now, bringing her products to the market.

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But she's very thankful for the public investment in schooling

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so she can count, and won't be cheated when she reaches the market.

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She wants her kid to be healthy, so she can go to the market

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and doesn't have to stay home.

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And she wants the infrastructure -- it is nice with a paved road.

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It's also good with credit.

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Micro-credits gave her the bicycle, you know.

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And information will tell her when to go to market with which product.

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You can do this.

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I find my experience from 20 years of Africa is that

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the seemingly impossible is possible.

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Africa has not done bad.

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In 50 years they've gone from a pre-Medieval situation

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to a very decent 100-year-ago Europe,

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with a functioning nation and state.

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I would say that sub-Saharan Africa has done best in the world

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during the last 50 years.

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Because we don't consider where they came from.

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It's this stupid concept of developing countries

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that puts us, Argentina and Mozambique together 50 years ago,

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and says that Mozambique did worse.

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We have to know a little more about the world.

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I have a neighbor who knows 200 types of wine.

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He knows everything.

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He knows the name of the grape, the temperature and everything.

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I only know two types of wine -- red and white.

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(Laughter)

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But my neighbor only knows two types of countries --

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industrialized and developing.

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And I know 200, I know about the small data.

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But you can do that.

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(Applause)

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But I have to get serious. And how do you get serious?

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You make a PowerPoint, you know?

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(Laughter)

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Homage to the Office package, no?

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What is this, what is this, what am I telling?

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I'm telling you that there are many dimensions of development.

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Everyone wants your pet thing.

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If you are in the corporate sector, you love micro-credit.

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If you are fighting in a non-governmental organization,

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you love equity between gender.

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Or if you are a teacher, you'll love UNESCO, and so on.

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On the global level, we have to have more than our own thing.

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We need everything.

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All these things are important for development,

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especially when you just get out of poverty

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and you should go towards welfare.

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Now, what we need to think about

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is, what is a goal for development,

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and what are the means for development?

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Let me first grade what are the most important means.

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Economic growth to me, as a public-health professor,

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is the most important thing for development

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because it explains 80 percent of survival.

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Governance. To have a government which functions --

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that's what brought California out of the misery of 1850.

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It was the government that made law function finally.

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Education, human resources are important.

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Health is also important, but not that much as a mean.

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Environment is important.

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Human rights is also important, but it just gets one cross.

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Now what about goals? Where are we going toward?

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We are not interested in money.

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Money is not a goal.

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It's the best mean, but I give it zero as a goal.

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Governance, well it's fun to vote in a little thing,

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but it's not a goal.

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And going to school, that's not a goal, it's a mean.

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Health I give two points. I mean it's nice to be healthy

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-- at my age especially -- you can stand here, you're healthy.

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And that's good, it gets two plusses.

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Environment is very, very crucial.

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There's nothing for the grandkid if you don't save up.

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But where are the important goals?

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Of course, it's human rights.

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Human rights is the goal,

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but it's not that strong of a mean for achieving development.

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And culture. Culture is the most important thing, I would say,

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because that's what brings joy to life.

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That's the value of living.

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So the seemingly impossible is possible.

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Even African countries can achieve this.

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And I've shown you the shot where the seemingly impossible is possible.

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And remember, please remember my main message,

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which is this: the seemingly impossible is possible.

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We can have a good world.

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I showed you the shots, I proved it in the PowerPoint,

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and I think I will convince you also by culture.

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(Laughter)

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(Applause)

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Bring me my sword!

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Sword swallowing is from ancient India.

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It's a cultural expression that for thousands of years

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has inspired human beings to think beyond the obvious.

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(Laughter)

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And I will now prove to you that the seemingly impossible is possible

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by taking this piece of steel -- solid steel --

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this is the army bayonet from the Swedish Army, 1850,

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in the last year we had war.

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And it's all solid steel -- you can hear here.

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And I'm going to take this blade of steel,

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and push it down through my body of blood and flesh,

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and prove to you that the seemingly impossible is possible.

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Can I request a moment of absolute silence?

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(Applause)