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(Música de entrada)

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Meu nome é Marc Lange

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Eu ensino na Universidade Da Carolina
do Norte na Chapel Hill.

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e hoje quero conversar com vocês sobre
o paradoxo de confirmação.

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É também conhecia como o
"paradoxo dos corvos"

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por causa do filosofo Karl Hempel,
cujo descobriu o paradoxo,

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apresentado primeiramente em termos
de um exemplo envolvendo corvos.

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O paradoxo afeta confirmação, que é, 
a maneira que hipóteses em ciência

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e na vida de todo dia são sustentadas
por nossas observações.

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Como sabemos das estórias de detetives
um detetive reúne evidências por ou

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contra várias hipóteses sobre quem 
cometeu um crime covarde.

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Tipicamente, nenhuma das 
peças individuais

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de evidência disponível para o detetive

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é suficiente totalmente por si só
para provar qual suspeito

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cometeu ou não cometeu o crime.

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ao invés, uma peça de evidência
poderia incluir até certo ponto

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a favor da hipótese de que o
mordomo é culpado.

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A evidência, então dita, para
confirmar a hipótese.

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Que talvez confirme fortemente a
hipótese, ou somente a um grau leve.

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