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(Música de entrada)

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Meu nome é Marc Lange

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Eu ensino na Universidade Da Carolina[br]do Norte na Chapel Hill.

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e hoje quero conversar com vocês sobre[br]o paradoxo de confirmação.

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É também conhecia como o[br]"paradoxo dos corvos"

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por causa do filosofo Karl Hempel,[br]cujo descobriu o paradoxo,

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apresentado primeiramente em termos[br]de um exemplo envolvendo corvos.

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O paradoxo afeta confirmação, que é, [br]a maneira que hipóteses em ciência

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e na vida de todo dia são sustentadas[br]por nossas observações.

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Como sabemos das estórias de detetives[br]um detetive reúne evidências por ou

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contra várias hipóteses sobre quem [br]cometeu um crime covarde.

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Tipicamente, nenhuma das [br]peças individuais

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de evidência disponível para o detetive

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é suficiente totalmente por si só[br]para provar qual suspeito

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cometeu ou não cometeu o crime.

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ao invés, uma peça de evidência[br]poderia incluir até certo ponto

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a favor da hipótese de que o[br]mordomo é culpado.

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A evidência, então dita, para[br]confirmar a hipótese.

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Que talvez confirme fortemente a[br]hipótese, ou somente a um grau leve.

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