WEBVTT

00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:05.920
(música)

00:00:05.920 --> 00:00:07.499
Me llamo Marc Lange.

00:00:07.499 --> 00:00:10.979
Doy clases en la Universidad de Carolina
del Norte en Chapel Hill,


00:00:10.979 --> 00:00:14.469
y hoy me gustaría hablarte sobre
la paradoja de la confirmación.

00:00:14.469 --> 00:00:16.830
También conocida como la 
"paradoja de los cuervos",

00:00:16.830 --> 00:00:20.600
ya que el filósofo Karl Hempel,
descubridor de la paradoja,

00:00:20.600 --> 00:00:24.340
la presentó por primera vez en un ejemplo
hablando de cuervos.

00:00:24.340 --> 00:00:29.949
La paradoja trata sobre la confirmación;
es decir, la forma en que las hipótesis científicas

00:00:29.949 --> 00:00:33.180
y las más cotidianas son apoyadas 
por nuestras observaciones.

00:00:33.180 --> 00:00:38.200
Todos sabemos, por las historias policíacas,
que un detective reúne evidencias a favor o

00:00:38.200 --> 00:00:42.729
en contra de varias hipótesis acerca de
quien cometió un ruin crimen.

00:00:42.729 --> 00:00:45.379
Típicamente, ninguna de las evidencias

00:00:45.379 --> 00:00:47.500
individuales de las que dispone el detective

00:00:47.500 --> 00:00:51.379
es suficiente por si misma para demostrar
cual de los sospechosos

00:00:51.379 --> 00:00:53.140
cometió o no cometió el crimen.

00:00:53.140 --> 00:00:57.340


00:00:57.340 --> 00:01:00.690


00:01:00.690 --> 00:01:04.229


00:01:04.229 --> 00:01:08.240


00:01:08.240 --> 00:01:11.270


00:01:11.270 --> 00:01:14.460


00:01:14.460 --> 00:01:18.470


00:01:18.470 --> 00:01:21.770


00:01:21.770 --> 00:01:25.369


00:01:25.369 --> 00:01:29.360


00:01:29.360 --> 00:01:33.290


00:01:33.290 --> 00:01:37.710


00:01:37.710 --> 00:01:41.059


00:01:41.059 --> 00:01:44.200


00:01:44.200 --> 00:01:48.030


00:01:48.030 --> 00:01:51.500


00:01:51.500 --> 00:01:55.649


00:01:55.649 --> 00:01:58.120


00:01:58.120 --> 00:02:01.000


00:02:01.000 --> 00:02:04.079


00:02:04.079 --> 00:02:08.360


00:02:08.360 --> 00:02:09.860


00:02:09.860 --> 00:02:12.989


00:02:12.989 --> 00:02:16.349


00:02:16.349 --> 00:02:18.769


00:02:18.769 --> 00:02:23.680


00:02:23.680 --> 00:02:26.399


00:02:26.399 --> 00:02:29.430


00:02:29.430 --> 00:02:32.040


00:02:32.040 --> 00:02:35.269


00:02:35.269 --> 00:02:36.780


00:02:36.780 --> 00:02:40.840


00:02:40.840 --> 00:02:45.990


00:02:45.990 --> 00:02:48.550


00:02:48.550 --> 00:02:52.370


00:02:52.370 --> 00:02:56.280


00:02:56.280 --> 00:02:59.459


00:02:59.459 --> 00:03:03.629


00:03:03.629 --> 00:03:07.370


00:03:07.370 --> 00:03:10.170


00:03:10.170 --> 00:03:12.470


00:03:12.470 --> 00:03:16.200


00:03:16.200 --> 00:03:19.419


00:03:19.419 --> 00:03:22.989


00:03:22.989 --> 00:03:27.910


00:03:27.920 --> 00:03:32.540


00:03:32.540 --> 00:03:37.720


00:03:37.720 --> 00:03:44.109


00:03:44.109 --> 00:03:49.580


00:03:49.580 --> 00:03:52.400


00:03:52.400 --> 00:03:57.510


00:03:57.510 --> 00:04:00.900


00:04:00.900 --> 00:04:05.450


00:04:05.450 --> 00:04:09.920


00:04:09.920 --> 00:04:13.720


00:04:13.720 --> 00:04:16.410


00:04:16.410 --> 00:04:20.329


00:04:20.329 --> 00:04:22.930


00:04:22.930 --> 00:04:26.300


00:04:26.300 --> 00:04:27.880


00:04:27.880 --> 00:04:34.200


00:04:34.200 --> 00:04:37.699


00:04:37.699 --> 00:04:39.639


00:04:39.639 --> 00:04:41.889


00:04:41.889 --> 00:04:45.370


00:04:45.370 --> 00:04:49.710


00:04:49.710 --> 00:04:53.080


00:04:53.080 --> 00:04:57.199


00:04:57.199 --> 00:04:59.430


00:04:59.430 --> 00:05:03.190


00:05:03.190 --> 00:05:06.990


00:05:06.990 --> 00:05:09.179


00:05:09.179 --> 00:05:12.380


00:05:12.380 --> 00:05:16.440


00:05:16.440 --> 00:05:18.560


00:05:18.560 --> 00:05:21.820


00:05:21.820 --> 00:05:25.030


00:05:25.030 --> 00:05:26.449


00:05:26.449 --> 00:05:29.449


00:05:29.449 --> 00:05:35.000


00:05:35.000 --> 00:05:39.020


00:05:39.020 --> 00:05:43.570


00:05:43.570 --> 00:05:48.310


00:05:48.310 --> 00:05:51.680


00:05:51.680 --> 00:05:55.810


00:05:55.810 --> 00:05:59.630


00:05:59.630 --> 00:06:02.800


00:06:02.800 --> 00:06:07.520


00:06:07.520 --> 00:06:11.150


00:06:11.150 --> 00:06:15.759


00:06:15.759 --> 00:06:19.620


00:06:19.620 --> 00:06:21.830


00:06:21.830 --> 00:06:24.890