WEBVTT 00:00:00.030 --> 00:00:01.830 ♪ [音乐] ♪ 00:00:03.630 --> 00:00:05.630 欢迎来到诺贝尔谈话 00:00:06.930 --> 00:00:10.300 本集中 Josh Angrist 和 Guido Imbens 00:00:10.300 --> 00:00:13.380 将会和 Isaiah Andrews 一同探讨 00:00:13.380 --> 00:00:16.700 他们获得诺贝尔奖的合作中的一些关键部分 00:00:16.700 --> 00:00:19.590 Josh，Guido，首先恭喜你们 获得了诺贝尔奖！ 00:00:19.590 --> 00:00:20.620 谢谢 00:00:20.620 --> 00:00:23.190 - [Isaiah] 你们一起完成的工作 00:00:23.190 --> 00:00:24.778 特别是在局部平均处理效应 00:00:24.778 --> 00:00:25.986 或 LATE 框架 00:00:25.986 --> 00:00:28.900 据说是获奖的重要原因之一 00:00:29.200 --> 00:00:32.600 而且，你们在哈佛重合的时间只有一年 00:00:32.900 --> 00:00:34.300 如果我没记错的话—— 00:00:35.210 --> 00:00:36.650 跟我们分享一下 00:00:36.650 --> 00:00:38.500 你们是如何开始合作的 00:00:38.500 --> 00:00:40.964 以及是什么让你们的工作关系富有成效 00:00:40.964 --> 00:00:43.600 有没有什么方式让你觉得可以互相称赞 00:00:43.600 --> 00:00:46.470 是什么让事情变得这么有成效？ 00:00:46.790 --> 00:00:50.624 我记得你的工作，Guido，没那么有意思 00:00:50.624 --> 00:00:52.740 但我觉得这是一个基于选择的样本 00:00:52.740 --> 00:00:54.600 是的，是的 00:00:54.600 --> 00:00:56.280 我其实是一个非常边缘化的雇员 00:00:56.280 --> 00:00:58.336 因为他们根本没按正常的招聘市场那样面试我 00:00:58.336 --> 00:00:59.830 。 00:00:59.830 --> 00:01:03.000 但我觉得他们非常急切的需要一个人 00:01:03.000 --> 00:01:04.900 来教授这些课程 00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:08.470 其实已经过去好几个研讨会了 00:01:08.470 --> 00:01:11.123 但他们还想找人来教计量经济学 00:01:11.135 --> 00:01:13.940 - 所以 Gary 给我打电话 - [Josh] Gary Chamberlain? 00:01:13.940 --> 00:01:16.700 Gary Chamberlain 打给我 然后电话面试了我 00:01:17.400 --> 00:01:19.474 他说：“要不你来一趟 00:01:19.474 --> 00:01:20.828 我们谈谈？” 00:01:21.089 --> 00:01:23.411 - [Josh] 我有点印象 00:01:23.411 --> 00:01:26.941 我记得我们和 Gary 一起吃了个晚饭 00:01:29.000 --> 00:01:32.900 我记得我对你的工作经验不是非常满意 00:01:33.600 --> 00:01:38.220 但幸运的是，Gary 的观点占了上风 00:01:38.580 --> 00:01:39.600 没错 00:01:39.600 --> 00:01:41.900 - [Josh] 然后哈佛给了你录取通知 00:01:42.400 --> 00:01:46.056 然后从你1990年秋天来了以后 00:01:46.056 --> 00:01:49.810 我记得我们就经常在一起讲话了，对吧？ 00:01:49.810 --> 00:01:52.990 就像我说的，我来了以后 没有一个清楚的日常安排 00:01:52.990 --> 00:01:55.700 来了以后我有点被吓到 00:01:56.000 --> 00:01:59.776 但是 Gary 说 “不 你应该和 Josh 谈谈” 00:01:59.776 --> 00:02:04.578 你应该去参加劳工研讨会 看看这些人是怎么做的 00:02:04.578 --> 00:02:06.990 他们做的事挺有意思的 00:02:07.470 --> 00:02:08.880 我听了 Gary 的 00:02:09.880 --> 00:02:10.938 就像我们一样 00:02:10.938 --> 00:02:14.834 就像我们当年以及之后所做的 00:02:14.834 --> 00:02:16.700 我觉得我们是邻居这点帮了不少忙 00:02:16.700 --> 00:02:20.774 我们都住在哈佛的初级教师宿舍 00:02:22.030 --> 00:02:25.040 部分原因是因为相比我们非常低的薪水来说 00:02:25.040 --> 00:02:27.200 剑桥的住宿费太高了 00:02:27.800 --> 00:02:29.456 我觉得我们都不是来自剑桥这一点 00:02:29.456 --> 00:02:31.212 也帮了不少忙 00:02:31.212 --> 00:02:33.360 那里有很多麻省理工的人 00:02:33.360 --> 00:02:36.027 他们已经有自己的社交圈了 00:02:36.441 --> 00:02:37.800 就像我们的合作者一样 00:02:37.800 --> 00:02:39.460 00:02:39.460 --> 00:02:41.850 00:02:41.850 --> 00:02:43.800 00:02:43.800 --> 00:02:46.410 00:02:46.860 --> 00:02:48.760 00:02:49.510 --> 00:02:51.912 00:02:52.500 --> 00:02:55.450 00:02:55.450 --> 00:02:59.072 00:03:00.330 --> 00:03:03.300 00:03:03.300 --> 00:03:05.562 00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:08.728 00:03:09.993 --> 00:03:11.500 00:03:11.500 --> 00:03:13.250 00:03:13.250 --> 00:03:16.460 00:03:16.460 --> 00:03:17.915 00:03:17.915 --> 00:03:19.580 00:03:19.580 --> 00:03:22.753 00:03:22.753 --> 00:03:24.850 00:03:24.850 --> 00:03:27.200 00:03:27.200 --> 00:03:29.710 00:03:29.710 --> 00:03:31.800 00:03:31.800 --> 00:03:34.560 00:03:34.560 --> 00:03:38.081 00:03:38.081 --> 00:03:41.505 00:03:41.505 --> 00:03:42.835 00:03:43.410 --> 00:03:45.096 00:03:45.096 --> 00:03:46.883 00:03:46.883 --> 00:03:48.790 00:03:48.790 --> 00:03:50.610 00:03:52.000 --> 00:03:56.651 00:03:56.651 --> 00:03:58.640 00:03:58.640 --> 00:04:00.169 00:04:00.169 --> 00:04:01.558 00:04:01.558 --> 00:04:03.300 00:04:03.300 --> 00:04:06.600 00:04:06.600 --> 00:04:09.260 00:04:09.260 --> 00:04:11.600 00:04:11.600 --> 00:04:13.020 00:04:13.020 --> 00:04:15.444 00:04:16.130 --> 00:04:17.900 00:04:18.370 --> 00:04:21.411 00:04:21.411 --> 00:04:23.110 00:04:23.110 --> 00:04:25.500 00:04:25.500 --> 00:04:27.701 00:04:28.262 --> 00:04:30.712 00:04:31.200 --> 00:04:35.805 00:04:36.300 --> 00:04:39.200 00:04:39.700 --> 00:04:42.933 00:04:42.933 --> 00:04:46.020 00:04:47.000 --> 00:04:49.859 00:04:49.859 --> 00:04:54.539 00:04:55.770 --> 00:05:00.695 00:05:00.695 --> 00:05:02.966 00:05:03.600 --> 00:05:07.457 00:05:07.457 --> 00:05:09.887 00:05:10.340 --> 00:05:13.020 00:05:13.020 --> 00:05:15.514 00:05:15.900 --> 00:05:18.500 00:05:18.500 --> 00:05:22.771 00:05:22.771 --> 00:05:26.163 00:05:26.633 --> 00:05:28.880 00:05:28.880 --> 00:05:32.212 00:05:32.212 --> 00:05:33.920 00:05:33.920 --> 00:05:36.641 00:05:37.810 --> 00:05:39.360 00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:41.655 00:05:41.655 --> 00:05:43.610 00:05:43.610 --> 00:05:45.000 00:05:45.600 --> 00:05:47.465 00:05:47.870 --> 00:05:51.421 00:05:51.421 --> 00:05:55.411 00:05:57.110 --> 00:06:00.200 00:06:00.500 --> 00:06:03.800 00:06:04.830 --> 00:06:06.300 00:06:06.300 --> 00:06:07.300 00:06:07.300 --> 00:06:11.930 00:06:11.930 --> 00:06:14.890 00:06:14.890 --> 00:06:16.970 00:06:16.970 --> 00:06:19.240 00:06:19.240 --> 00:06:20.940 00:06:20.940 --> 00:06:22.353 00:06:23.100 --> 00:06:24.410 00:06:24.410 --> 00:06:26.890 00:06:26.890 --> 00:06:28.170 00:06:28.170 --> 00:06:30.900 00:06:30.900 --> 00:06:32.100 00:06:32.100 --> 00:06:34.860 00:06:34.860 --> 00:06:36.250 00:06:36.250 --> 00:06:38.569 00:06:40.400 --> 00:06:42.738 00:06:42.738 --> 00:06:46.500 00:06:46.500 --> 00:06:48.805 00:06:49.390 --> 00:06:51.774 00:06:53.800 --> 00:06:57.724 00:06:58.120 --> 00:07:00.985 00:07:03.200 --> 00:07:05.050 00:07:05.050 --> 00:07:06.900 00:07:09.370 --> 00:07:11.754 00:07:12.071 --> 00:07:14.820 00:07:15.565 --> 00:07:18.688 00:07:19.250 --> 00:07:21.400 00:07:21.400 --> 00:07:24.821 00:07:25.500 --> 00:07:29.800 00:07:30.100 --> 00:07:34.500 00:07:34.700 --> 00:07:37.829 00:07:37.829 --> 00:07:42.400 00:07:42.400 --> 00:07:45.679 00:07:47.000 --> 00:07:51.990 00:07:52.900 --> 00:07:56.000 00:07:56.500 --> 00:07:58.500 00:07:59.500 --> 00:08:03.408 00:08:03.408 --> 00:08:07.666 00:08:07.900 --> 00:08:10.842 00:08:10.842 --> 00:08:14.336 00:08:16.190 --> 00:08:18.922 00:08:18.922 --> 00:08:22.640 00:08:22.640 --> 00:08:24.700 00:08:24.700 --> 00:08:27.602 00:08:30.100 --> 00:08:32.070 00:08:32.070 --> 00:08:34.250 00:08:34.250 --> 00:08:35.270 00:08:35.270 --> 00:08:37.460 00:08:38.100 --> 00:08:40.651 00:08:40.651 --> 00:08:43.070 00:08:43.070 --> 00:08:49.230 00:08:49.230 --> 00:08:51.100 00:08:51.100 --> 00:08:54.260 00:08:54.260 --> 00:08:56.480 00:08:56.480 --> 00:08:58.700 00:08:58.700 --> 00:09:00.420 00:09:01.180 --> 00:09:03.600 00:09:03.930 --> 00:09:08.500 00:09:08.500 --> 00:09:11.061 00:09:11.431 --> 00:09:12.981 00:09:14.712 --> 00:09:17.465 00:09:17.465 --> 00:09:19.546 00:09:19.546 --> 00:09:23.127 00:09:23.600 --> 00:09:26.060 00:09:26.060 --> 00:09:28.339 00:09:28.339 --> 00:09:30.700 00:09:30.700 --> 00:09:32.640 00:09:33.200 --> 00:09:36.131 00:09:36.600 --> 00:09:40.151 00:09:40.151 --> 00:09:42.603 00:09:43.583 --> 00:09:45.075 00:09:46.400 --> 00:09:48.795 00:09:49.100 --> 00:09:51.560 00:09:51.560 --> 00:09:53.445 00:09:54.155 --> 00:09:56.800 00:09:56.800 --> 00:09:59.600 00:10:00.000 --> 00:10:01.310 00:10:01.310 --> 00:10:03.896 00:10:04.600 --> 00:10:08.192 00:10:08.963 --> 00:10:10.590 00:10:12.700 --> 00:10:14.165 00:10:14.165 --> 00:10:16.010 00:10:16.010 --> 00:10:18.600 00:10:18.600 --> 00:10:21.801 00:10:21.801 --> 00:10:22.946 00:10:22.946 --> 00:10:26.733 00:10:26.733 --> 00:10:29.555 00:10:30.570 --> 00:10:33.470 00:10:33.470 --> 00:10:36.800 00:10:36.800 --> 00:10:39.309 00:10:40.330 --> 00:10:44.649 00:10:45.150 --> 00:10:46.720 00:10:47.390 --> 00:10:51.717 00:10:54.280 --> 00:10:58.400 00:10:59.300 --> 00:11:02.905 00:11:03.810 --> 00:11:05.830 00:11:05.830 --> 00:11:08.900 00:11:12.520 --> 00:11:16.559 00:11:16.559 --> 00:11:20.470 00:11:20.470 --> 00:11:22.500 00:11:22.500 --> 00:11:25.370 00:11:25.800 --> 00:11:28.010 00:11:28.010 --> 00:11:29.710 00:11:30.200 --> 00:11:33.000 00:11:33.000 --> 00:11:37.365 00:11:37.779 --> 00:11:39.763 00:11:40.220 --> 00:11:43.131 00:11:43.131 --> 00:11:46.134 00:11:46.134 --> 00:11:49.176 00:11:49.730 --> 00:11:56.283 00:11:58.500 --> 00:12:00.838 00:12:00.838 --> 00:12:02.800 00:12:02.800 --> 00:12:04.380 00:12:04.680 --> 00:12:07.570 00:12:07.570 --> 00:12:10.270 00:12:10.270 --> 00:12:11.880 00:12:11.880 --> 00:12:14.430 00:12:14.430 --> 00:12:16.910 00:12:16.910 --> 00:12:19.460 00:12:20.620 --> 00:12:21.990 00:12:21.990 --> 00:12:25.270 00:12:25.600 --> 00:12:29.300 00:12:30.020 --> 00:12:31.420 00:12:31.420 --> 00:12:34.550 00:12:34.550 --> 00:12:37.034 00:12:38.770 --> 00:12:40.400 00:12:41.250 --> 00:12:44.167 00:12:44.780 --> 00:12:46.700 00:12:46.900 --> 00:12:48.200 00:12:48.601 --> 00:12:53.534 00:12:53.534 --> 00:12:57.111 00:12:57.111 --> 00:13:01.097 00:13:02.710 --> 00:13:07.532 00:13:07.900 --> 00:13:11.700 00:13:11.700 --> 00:13:13.199 00:13:13.199 --> 00:13:18.704 00:13:19.530 --> 00:13:22.190 00:13:22.190 --> 00:13:25.600 00:13:25.600 --> 00:13:26.990 00:13:26.990 --> 00:13:30.367 00:13:30.367 --> 00:13:31.860 00:13:31.860 --> 00:13:36.210 00:13:37.810 --> 00:13:39.500 00:13:39.500 --> 00:13:40.500 00:13:40.500 --> 00:13:44.600 00:13:45.410 --> 00:13:47.100 00:13:47.100 --> 00:13:51.960 00:13:51.960 --> 00:13:55.040 00:13:55.040 --> 00:13:59.100 00:13:59.300 --> 00:14:00.740 00:14:00.740 --> 00:14:04.100 00:14:04.100 --> 00:14:05.100 00:14:05.100 --> 00:14:07.005 00:14:07.860 --> 00:14:09.729 00:14:10.604 --> 00:14:12.441 00:14:14.420 --> 00:14:19.613 00:14:19.613 --> 00:14:22.348 00:14:22.733 --> 00:14:25.220 00:14:26.560 --> 00:14:29.307 00:14:31.600 --> 00:14:33.360 00:14:33.360 --> 00:14:35.500 00:14:35.500 --> 00:14:37.270 00:14:37.270 --> 00:14:40.700 00:14:40.700 --> 00:14:42.630 00:14:42.630 --> 00:14:44.500 00:14:44.500 --> 00:14:46.300 00:14:46.300 --> 00:14:48.560 00:14:48.560 --> 00:14:51.462 00:14:51.462 --> 00:14:53.190 00:14:53.190 --> 00:14:54.760 00:14:55.300 --> 00:14:57.361 00:14:58.251 --> 00:15:00.588 00:15:00.588 --> 00:15:02.150 00:15:02.150 --> 00:15:06.477 00:15:06.477 --> 00:15:08.358 00:15:08.900 --> 00:15:13.512 00:15:13.512 --> 00:15:15.000 00:15:15.000 --> 00:15:18.731 00:15:19.300 --> 00:15:24.314 00:15:25.500 --> 00:15:28.400 00:15:28.400 --> 00:15:31.300 00:15:33.330 --> 00:15:36.885 00:15:36.885 --> 00:15:40.300 00:15:40.300 --> 00:15:41.949 00:15:41.949 --> 00:15:44.000 00:15:44.000 --> 00:15:48.400 00:15:49.000 --> 00:15:51.100 00:15:51.800 --> 00:15:53.300 00:15:53.300 --> 00:15:56.600 00:15:56.600 --> 00:15:59.100 00:15:59.100 --> 00:16:01.380 00:16:01.380 --> 00:16:04.900 00:16:05.800 --> 00:16:07.250 00:16:07.250 --> 00:16:08.690 00:16:08.690 --> 00:16:09.813 00:16:09.813 --> 00:16:10.831 00:16:10.831 --> 00:16:12.240 00:16:12.240 --> 00:16:15.100 00:16:15.100 --> 00:16:17.300 00:16:18.020 --> 00:16:21.707 00:16:21.707 --> 00:16:23.814 00:16:23.814 --> 00:16:26.900 00:16:26.900 --> 00:16:31.000 00:16:31.000 --> 00:16:34.000 00:16:34.000 --> 00:16:35.980 00:16:36.290 --> 00:16:37.920 00:16:37.920 --> 00:16:40.047 00:16:40.047 --> 00:16:45.200 00:16:46.590 --> 00:16:48.620 00:16:49.350 --> 00:16:53.610 00:16:53.890 --> 00:16:55.900 00:16:55.900 --> 00:16:58.000 00:16:58.000 --> 00:16:59.270 00:16:59.270 --> 00:17:00.990 00:17:00.990 --> 00:17:02.670 00:17:03.600 --> 00:17:07.664 00:17:07.664 --> 00:17:10.600 00:17:11.300 --> 00:17:12.500 00:17:12.500 --> 00:17:15.940 00:17:15.940 --> 00:17:19.000 00:17:19.710 --> 00:17:22.000 00:17:22.000 --> 00:17:23.260 00:17:26.800 --> 00:17:30.758 00:17:30.758 --> 00:17:33.098 00:17:33.098 --> 00:17:35.448 00:17:35.448 --> 00:17:37.128 00:17:37.800 --> 00:17:41.000 00:17:42.810 --> 00:17:44.310 00:17:44.310 --> 00:17:46.310 00:17:49.340 --> 00:17:51.710 00:17:51.710 --> 00:17:55.550 00:17:55.550 --> 00:17:57.000 00:17:57.000 --> 00:18:01.530 00:18:01.530 --> 00:18:02.530 00:18:02.530 --> 00:18:04.300 00:18:04.300 --> 00:18:07.730 00:18:07.730 --> 00:18:12.887 00:18:12.887 --> 00:18:15.687 00:18:15.687 --> 00:18:18.267 00:18:18.267 --> 00:18:20.678 00:18:20.689 --> 00:18:24.300 00:18:25.000 --> 00:18:27.550 00:18:27.550 --> 00:18:28.790 00:18:29.430 --> 00:18:32.810 00:18:32.810 --> 00:18:34.800 00:18:34.800 --> 00:18:36.800 00:18:37.400 --> 00:18:39.810 00:18:39.810 --> 00:18:42.400 00:18:43.200 --> 00:18:46.500 00:18:46.800 --> 00:18:50.350 00:18:50.350 --> 00:18:52.210 00:18:52.210 --> 00:18:53.500 00:18:53.500 --> 00:18:55.480 00:18:55.480 --> 00:18:57.885 00:18:58.800 --> 00:19:02.869 00:19:03.270 --> 00:19:06.542 00:19:07.500 --> 00:19:11.618 00:19:11.990 --> 00:19:13.210 00:19:13.600 --> 00:19:15.879 00:19:16.710 --> 00:19:18.612 00:19:20.300 --> 00:19:22.672 00:19:22.672 --> 00:19:24.995 00:19:26.300 --> 00:19:28.346 00:19:28.346 --> 00:19:31.400 00:19:31.400 --> 00:19:35.350 00:19:35.350 --> 00:19:37.140 00:19:37.640 --> 00:19:40.730 00:19:41.300 --> 00:19:43.757 00:19:43.757 --> 00:19:45.356 00:19:46.600 --> 00:19:48.940 00:19:50.920 --> 00:19:53.400 00:19:54.740 --> 00:19:56.011 00:19:56.011 --> 00:19:58.022 00:19:59.620 --> 00:20:04.133 00:20:05.200 --> 00:20:09.193 00:20:09.193 --> 00:20:11.790 00:20:11.790 --> 00:20:13.350 00:20:13.350 --> 00:20:14.375 00:20:14.375 --> 00:20:15.990 00:20:15.990 --> 00:20:18.198 00:20:18.198 --> 00:20:20.516 00:20:20.516 --> 00:20:23.290 00:20:23.845 --> 00:20:26.713 00:20:26.713 --> 00:20:28.514 00:20:28.514 --> 00:20:30.347