[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.03,0:00:01.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [音乐] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.63,0:00:05.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,欢迎来到诺贝尔谈话
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.93,0:00:10.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,本集中 Josh Angrist \N和 Guido Imbens
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.30,0:00:13.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,将会和 Isaiah Andrews \N一同探讨
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.38,0:00:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们获得诺贝尔奖的合作中的一些关键部分
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.70,0:00:19.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Josh，Guido，首先恭喜你们\N获得了诺贝尔奖！
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.59,0:00:20.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,谢谢
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.62,0:00:23.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] 你们一起完成的工作
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.19,0:00:24.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,特别是在局部平均处理效应
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.78,0:00:25.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,或 LATE 框架
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.99,0:00:28.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,据说是获奖的重要原因之一
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.20,0:00:32.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而且，你们在哈佛重合的时间只有一年
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.90,0:00:34.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,如果我没记错的话——
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.21,0:00:36.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,跟我们分享一下
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.65,0:00:38.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你们是如何开始合作的
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.50,0:00:40.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以及是什么让你们的工作关系富有成效
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.96,0:00:43.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有没有什么方式让你觉得可以互相称赞
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.60,0:00:46.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是什么让事情变得这么有成效？
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.79,0:00:50.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得你的工作，Guido，没那么有意思
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.62,0:00:52.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但我觉得这是一个基于选择的样本
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.74,0:00:54.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是的，是的
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.60,0:00:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我其实是一个非常边缘化的雇员
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.28,0:00:58.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因为他们根本没按正常的招聘市场那样面试我
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.34,0:00:59.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,。
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.83,0:01:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但我觉得他们非常急切的需要一个人
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.00,0:01:04.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,来教授这些课程
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.92,0:01:08.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,其实已经过去好几个研讨会了
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.47,0:01:11.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但他们还想找人来教计量经济学
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.14,0:01:13.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- 所以 Gary 给我打电话\N- [Josh] Gary Chamberlain?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.94,0:01:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gary Chamberlain 打给我\N然后电话面试了我
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.40,0:01:19.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他说：“要不你来一趟
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.47,0:01:20.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们谈谈？”
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.09,0:01:23.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] 我有点印象
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.41,0:01:26.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得我们和 Gary 一起吃了个晚饭
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.00,0:01:32.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得我对你的工作经验不是非常满意
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.60,0:01:38.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但幸运的是，Gary 的观点占了上风
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.58,0:01:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,没错
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.60,0:01:41.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] 然后哈佛给了你录取通知
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.40,0:01:46.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后从你1990年秋天来了以后
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.06,0:01:49.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得我们就经常在一起讲话了，对吧？
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.81,0:01:52.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,就像我说的，我来了以后\N没有一个清楚的日常安排
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.99,0:01:55.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,来了以后我有点被吓到
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.00,0:01:59.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是 Gary 说 “不\N你应该和 Josh 谈谈”
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.78,0:02:04.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你应该去参加劳工研讨会\N看看这些人是怎么做的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.58,0:02:06.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们做的事挺有意思的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.47,0:02:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我听了 Gary 的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.88,0:02:10.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,就像我们一样
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.94,0:02:14.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,就像我们当年以及之后所做的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.83,0:02:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我觉得我们是邻居这点帮了不少忙
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.70,0:02:20.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们都住在哈佛的初级教师宿舍
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.03,0:02:25.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,部分原因是因为相比我们非常低的薪水来说
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.04,0:02:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,剑桥的住宿费太高了
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.80,0:02:29.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我觉得我们都不是来自剑桥这一点
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.46,0:02:31.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,也帮了不少忙
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.21,0:02:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,那里有很多麻省理工的人
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.36,0:02:36.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们已经有自己的社交圈了
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.44,0:02:37.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,就像我们的合作者一样
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.80,0:02:39.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [音乐] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.46,0:02:41.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] 我觉得我们琢磨出
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.85,0:02:43.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,一套适合我们的工作方式
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.80,0:02:46.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们过的非常规律，所以才能是邻居
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.86,0:02:48.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们经常一起洗衣服
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.51,0:02:51.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在我们的公寓里没有洗衣机
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.50,0:02:55.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但我们过去经常洗衣服，经常一起聊天
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.45,0:02:59.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你有一种非常系统的方式
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.33,0:03:03.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,来解决我们讨论中会出现的问题
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.30,0:03:05.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我印象深刻的一件事是
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.40,0:03:08.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们早期的互动，你会持续跟进
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.99,0:03:11.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你会把事情记下来
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.50,0:03:13.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,回想那段时间，还是挺记忆犹新的
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.25,0:03:16.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我有大量的时间去思考
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.46,0:03:17.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我现在看到我初级的同事们
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.92,0:03:19.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Guido] 你现在没空思考了
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.58,0:03:22.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Josh] 没有，但是对我来说，这是一回事
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.75,0:03:24.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我现在觉得很多初级同事
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.85,0:03:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,没有足够多的时间思考
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.20,0:03:29.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,人们在做很多项目
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.71,0:03:31.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这些项目都很难
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.80,0:03:34.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,人们出版的压力很大
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.56,0:03:38.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得我花很多时间坐在我的办公室里
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.08,0:03:41.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,想着 “我现在应该干什么？”
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.50,0:03:42.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[笑声]
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.41,0:03:45.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我有很多时间
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.10,0:03:46.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,去想这些问题
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.88,0:03:48.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后尝试解决它们
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.79,0:03:50.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我可以去研讨会
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.00,0:03:56.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后第二天和 Josh 或者 Gary \N一起喝咖啡或者吃午饭
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.65,0:03:58.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后讨论事情
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.64,0:04:00.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] 你们一起在哈佛的时间
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.17,0:04:01.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,其实没有那么长
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.56,0:04:03.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你们很快就在一起工作了
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.30,0:04:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你们当时是否都在寻找共同作者的心态
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.60,0:04:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,或者当时正在寻找特定类型的共同作者
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.26,0:04:11.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,还是比这更偶然？
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.60,0:04:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] 我觉得我们很幸运
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.02,0:04:15.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我不记得我在寻找什么
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.13,0:04:17.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我觉得这更多是偶然
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.37,0:04:21.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我说我进来了，我已经做完了我的就业市场论文
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.41,0:04:23.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以及另一篇论文
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.11,0:04:25.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我很高兴来到哈佛
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.50,0:04:27.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,突然间有所有这些研讨会可以参加
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.26,0:04:30.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,还有很多有趣的人可以交谈
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.20,0:04:35.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但这对我来说并不是一件非常有意识的事情
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.30,0:04:39.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,回想起来，我想有一段时间
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.70,0:04:42.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我和 Guido 讨论了
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.93,0:04:46.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,工具变量、潜在结果、治疗效果
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.00,0:04:49.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们进行了很好的讨论
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.86,0:04:54.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,之后他也给我发了一些笔记
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.77,0:05:00.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这些笔记非常有条理的记录了我们的讨论
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.70,0:05:02.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,和您的想法
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.60,0:05:07.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们以一种相当正式的方式得出结论
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.46,0:05:09.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我想，“嗯，那太好了。”
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.34,0:05:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,光说没用，对吧，但是和...
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.02,0:05:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] 对，但是\N- 书写了他们的故事
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.90,0:05:18.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] 对我来说，把事情写下来更好
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.50,0:05:22.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得和 Josh 一起工作
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.77,0:05:26.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,坐在我的办公室里，把事情写下来
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.63,0:05:28.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你们都和 Gary 说过话
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.88,0:05:32.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,之后我们需要坐下来
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.21,0:05:33.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,真正写下事情
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.92,0:05:36.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以弄清楚到底发生了什么
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.81,0:05:39.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得另一件我们一起做的事情，Guido
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.36,0:05:40.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们从应用当中
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.51,0:05:41.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,得出来很多非常具体的问题
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.66,0:05:43.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] 对
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.61,0:05:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在我看来，我们学习的
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.60,0:05:47.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,很多计量经济学都是关于模型的
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.87,0:05:51.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这里有一个模型，你对这个模型有什么看法？
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.42,0:05:55.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我想我们在考虑，这是一个特殊的场景
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.11,0:06:00.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,草拟资格是衡量你是否在军队服役的一个工具
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.50,0:06:03.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们学到了什么？
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.83,0:06:06.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] 没错
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.30,0:06:07.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,对，这就是你对我现在研究方式
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.30,0:06:11.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,影响仍然非常明显的地方——
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.93,0:06:14.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [音乐] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.89,0:06:16.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] 回到现在一点，
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.97,0:06:19.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,想想你们什么时候开始研究这个
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.24,0:06:20.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,什么时候开始一起工作
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.94,0:06:22.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,对于那些只想
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.10,0:06:24.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,找到富有成效的合著者的人
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.41,0:06:26.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有什么想法吗？
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.89,0:06:28.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Guido 已经提到过，时间的重要性
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.17,0:06:30.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这个是对的
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.90,0:06:32.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,没有足够多的时间思考是很容易的
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.10,0:06:34.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你一定要创造时间
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.86,0:06:36.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这是个问题 Isaiah
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.25,0:06:38.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我跟我的学生说
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.40,0:06:42.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,挑选合著者的时候需要足够细心
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.74,0:06:46.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,甚至要比挑选伴侣时更细心
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.50,0:06:48.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你想找到的合著者
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.39,0:06:51.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,和你需要有互补
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.80,0:06:57.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这可以加强关系
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.12,0:07:00.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你不想与和你看世界一样的人
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.20,0:07:05.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,一起工作
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.05,0:07:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,虽然我和 Guido 可以达成一致
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.37,0:07:11.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是我们经常争论
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.07,0:07:14.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这些讨论非常有效果
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.56,0:07:18.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们有互补的能力
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.25,0:07:21.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我非常的经验主义\N我不能空想
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.40,0:07:24.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Guido 对于梳理出概念非常在行
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.50,0:07:29.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,对，我完全统一
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.10,0:07:34.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这样的关系非常好
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.70,0:07:37.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你看很多人在一起工作
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.83,0:07:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是未必效果很好
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.40,0:07:45.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有很多时候跳出这种关系非常难
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.00,0:07:51.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,好的合作关系，非常美好，就像婚姻一样
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.90,0:07:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,会孕育出很棒的孩子
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.50,0:07:58.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,学术研究的成果很可能非常好
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.50,0:08:03.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,超出独自创作的能力
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.41,0:08:07.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是一个不好的合著关系可以是毁灭式的
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.90,0:08:10.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,费时间，痛苦，就像不好的婚姻一样
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.84,0:08:14.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,争论可能始于谁在何时做了什么
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.19,0:08:18.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以及知识产权类型问题
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.92,0:08:22.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,尤其是当事情变得有点糟糕
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.64,0:08:24.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,并且有人认为对方没有发挥作用时
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.70,0:08:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在经济学中，合著关系越来越多
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.10,0:08:32.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得这是有记载的，多得多
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.07,0:08:34.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] 没错
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.25,0:08:35.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有更多的团队，也有更大的团队
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.27,0:08:37.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为这很棒，我喜欢在团队中工作
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.10,0:08:40.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们确实在有大团队的学校工作
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.65,0:08:43.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我经常和宾大的团队合作，\N像 Parag Pathak 和 David Autor
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.07,0:08:49.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以及研究生团队
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.23,0:08:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我发现学生的合作，并不是一直
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.10,0:08:54.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在某种程度上过于杂乱
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.26,0:08:56.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,。
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.48,0:08:58.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们思考不清楚
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.70,0:09:00.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,思考清楚很难
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.18,0:09:03.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我觉得对于我来说，和人合作
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.93,0:09:08.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,意味着要花很多一对一的时间
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.50,0:09:11.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你要搞清楚他们怎么思考
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.43,0:09:12.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们对什么问题感兴趣
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.71,0:09:17.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们对于这些问题有什么想法
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.46,0:09:19.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们喜欢怎么写作...
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.55,0:09:23.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,适应每个人的性格需要一些成熟度
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.60,0:09:26.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- 对，对\N- [Isaiah] 怎么说？
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.06,0:09:28.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,知道什么对他们有用
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.34,0:09:30.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,知道什么时候有用还是什么时候没用？
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.70,0:09:32.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] 成熟的意思是有一些判断
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.20,0:09:36.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,才能诚实地面对它，如果进展不顺利
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.60,0:09:40.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有时你必须进行一些艰难的讨论
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.15,0:09:42.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,继续有意义吗？
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.58,0:09:45.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,“我希望你这样做，但你没有”
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.40,0:09:48.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,也许事实证明在另一个方向上有一些感觉
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.10,0:09:51.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,同样的方式
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.56,0:09:53.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Josh 很棒
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.16,0:09:56.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,诚实的来说，从一开始就是
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.80,0:09:59.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] 无论好坏
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.00,0:10:01.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] 我把这些事情写下来，然后我记得
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.31,0:10:03.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得和 Rubin 的第一稿论文
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.60,0:10:08.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Josh 那时在以色列
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.96,0:10:10.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我和 Don 在剑桥
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.70,0:10:14.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,所以我和 Don 会经常交流
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.16,0:10:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是 Don 那时并没有做太多写作
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.01,0:10:18.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我会把东西写下来，然后传真给 Josh
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.60,0:10:21.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后他会回复我
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.80,0:10:22.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,第一页上写着一个大大的 “不”
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.95,0:10:26.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,第二页，一行写着 “不”
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.73,0:10:29.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,会持续一段时间，他现在还这样
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.57,0:10:33.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我把我诺贝尔演讲的第一稿发给他
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.47,0:10:36.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后 Josh 说 “不，不！”
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.80,0:10:39.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我得到了一些 PDF 批注，\N就像 Josh 的，非常有用
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.33,0:10:44.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,省略不必要的词
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.15,0:10:46.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我只有少量的合著者愿意这么做
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.39,0:10:51.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,特别是年纪变大以后，更难忍这种事情
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.28,0:10:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我会发现现在开始与早期在合著者关系中
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.30,0:11:02.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这样做的人合作变得更加困难
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.81,0:11:05.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这特别困难因为你需要有足够的信任
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.83,0:11:08.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Josh，愿意变得非常具有批判性
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.52,0:11:16.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,永远愿意承认错误
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.56,0:11:20.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [音乐] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.47,0:11:22.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] 但是您必须寻找好的合作伙伴
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.50,0:11:25.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,可以帮助您回答
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.80,0:11:28.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,您自己无法回答的问题的人
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.01,0:11:29.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为人们有一种自然的倾向
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.20,0:11:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,即倾向于与观点和技能相似的人
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.00,0:11:37.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而这并没有那么有用
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.78,0:11:39.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] Josh 是对的，现在
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.22,0:11:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,很多人倾向找和自己思考同样问题的人
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.13,0:11:46.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,思考方式也相近
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.13,0:11:49.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这样的话不会有什么新想法迸发的
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.73,0:11:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但与此同时
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.50,0:12:00.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,寻找和自己想法不同的人
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.84,0:12:02.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,会花很多时间
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.80,0:12:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Guido，你之前提到过和 Josh 共事
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.68,0:12:07.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是如何影响你自己做研究的方式
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.57,0:12:10.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,可以展开说说吗？
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.27,0:12:11.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,从 Josh 的角度听，可能会更有趣
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.88,0:12:14.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,和 Guido 共事，有没有影响你研究的方式？
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.43,0:12:16.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] 现在，我更加意识到一个现实
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.91,0:12:19.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,对我来说，好的经济学研究
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.62,0:12:21.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,来自于和有经验的人沟通
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.99,0:12:25.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而不是阅读计量经济学
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.60,0:12:29.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,或者是读数据期刊
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.02,0:12:31.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而是和有实际经验的人交谈
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.42,0:12:34.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,去参加经验研讨会
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.55,0:12:37.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我在伯克利的时候
Dialogue: 0,0:12:38.77,0:12:40.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,David Carr 和 Raj Chetty 是那里的同事
Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.25,0:12:44.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我会和他们谈话，听他们的观点
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.78,0:12:46.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,尝试去观察
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.90,0:12:48.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们解决问题的办法
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.60,0:12:53.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,和其他我对他们做事的方式不太满意的地方
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.53,0:12:57.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,并试图寻找方法上的问题
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.11,0:13:01.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,可能这样会有一些更通用的解决方案
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.71,0:13:07.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我尝试告诉我的学生，我鼓励他们
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.90,0:13:11.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,去为哈佛有经验的人
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.70,0:13:13.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,做研究助手
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.20,0:13:18.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我在读研究生时学到的东西并没有掩饰
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.53,0:13:22.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但它真的来自与 Josh 的合作
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.19,0:13:25.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以及与 Gary 的交谈
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.60,0:13:26.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gary 总是鼓励这样做
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.99,0:13:30.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因为他自己这样做了
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.37,0:13:31.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在他职业早期
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.86,0:13:36.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他和有实际经验问题 Zvi Griliches 一起工作过
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.81,0:13:39.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,对
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.50,0:13:40.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.50,0:13:44.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.41,0:13:47.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.10,0:13:51.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.96,0:13:55.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.04,0:13:59.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.30,0:14:00.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.74,0:14:04.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.10,0:14:05.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.10,0:14:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.86,0:14:09.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.60,0:14:12.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.42,0:14:19.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.61,0:14:22.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.73,0:14:25.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:26.56,0:14:29.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.60,0:14:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.36,0:14:35.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.50,0:14:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:37.27,0:14:40.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.70,0:14:42.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.63,0:14:44.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.50,0:14:46.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.30,0:14:48.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.56,0:14:51.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.46,0:14:53.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.19,0:14:54.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.30,0:14:57.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.25,0:15:00.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.59,0:15:02.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.15,0:15:06.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:06.48,0:15:08.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.90,0:15:13.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:13.51,0:15:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.00,0:15:18.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.30,0:15:24.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.50,0:15:28.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.40,0:15:31.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.33,0:15:36.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.88,0:15:40.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.30,0:15:41.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.95,0:15:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.00,0:15:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.00,0:15:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.80,0:15:53.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.30,0:15:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.60,0:15:59.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.10,0:16:01.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.38,0:16:04.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:05.80,0:16:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.25,0:16:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:08.69,0:16:09.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.81,0:16:10.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.83,0:16:12.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.24,0:16:15.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.10,0:16:17.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.02,0:16:21.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.71,0:16:23.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.81,0:16:26.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.90,0:16:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.00,0:16:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.00,0:16:35.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.29,0:16:37.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.92,0:16:40.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.05,0:16:45.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.59,0:16:48.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:49.35,0:16:53.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:53.89,0:16:55.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:55.90,0:16:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.00,0:16:59.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.27,0:17:00.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:00.99,0:17:02.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.60,0:17:07.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.66,0:17:10.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.30,0:17:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:12.50,0:17:15.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.94,0:17:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:19.71,0:17:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:22.00,0:17:23.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:26.80,0:17:30.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:30.76,0:17:33.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:33.10,0:17:35.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:35.45,0:17:37.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:37.80,0:17:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:42.81,0:17:44.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.31,0:17:46.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:49.34,0:17:51.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:51.71,0:17:55.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:55.55,0:17:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:57.00,0:18:01.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:01.53,0:18:02.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:02.53,0:18:04.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:04.30,0:18:07.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:07.73,0:18:12.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.89,0:18:15.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:15.69,0:18:18.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.27,0:18:20.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:20.69,0:18:24.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:25.00,0:18:27.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:27.55,0:18:28.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.43,0:18:32.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.81,0:18:34.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:34.80,0:18:36.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:37.40,0:18:39.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:39.81,0:18:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:43.20,0:18:46.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:46.80,0:18:50.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:50.35,0:18:52.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:52.21,0:18:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:53.50,0:18:55.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:55.48,0:18:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:58.80,0:19:02.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:03.27,0:19:06.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:07.50,0:19:11.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:11.99,0:19:13.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:13.60,0:19:15.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:16.71,0:19:18.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:20.30,0:19:22.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:22.67,0:19:24.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
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