WEBVTT

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♪ [音乐] ♪

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欢迎来到诺贝尔谈话

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本集中 Josh Angrist 
和 Guido Imbens

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将会和 Isaiah Andrews 
一同探讨

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他们获得诺贝尔奖的合作中的一些关键部分

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Josh，Guido，首先恭喜你们
获得了诺贝尔奖！

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谢谢

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- [Isaiah] 你们一起完成的工作

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特别是在局部平均处理效应

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或 LATE 框架

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据说是获奖的重要原因之一

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而且，你们在哈佛重合的时间只有一年

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如果我没记错的话——

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跟我们分享一下

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你们是如何开始合作的

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以及是什么让你们的工作关系富有成效

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有没有什么方式让你觉得可以互相称赞

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是什么让事情变得这么有成效？

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我记得你的工作，Guido，没那么有意思

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但我觉得这是一个基于选择的样本

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是的，是的

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我其实是一个非常边缘化的雇员

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因为他们根本没按正常的招聘市场那样面试我

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。

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但我觉得他们非常急切的需要一个人

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来教授这些课程

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其实已经过去好几个研讨会了

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但他们还想找人来教计量经济学

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- 所以 Gary 给我打电话
- [Josh] Gary Chamberlain?

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Gary Chamberlain 打给我
然后电话面试了我

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他说：“要不你来一趟

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我们谈谈？”

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- [Josh] 我有点印象

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我记得我们和 Gary 一起吃了个晚饭

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我记得我对你的工作经验不是非常满意

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但幸运的是，Gary 的观点占了上风

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没错

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- [Josh] 然后哈佛给了你录取通知

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然后从你1990年秋天来了以后

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我记得我们就经常在一起讲话了，对吧？

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就像我说的，我来了以后
没有一个清楚的日常安排

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来了以后我有点被吓到

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但是 Gary 说 “不
你应该和 Josh 谈谈”

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你应该去参加劳工研讨会
看看这些人是怎么做的

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他们做的事挺有意思的

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我听了 Gary 的

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就像我们一样

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就像我们当年以及之后所做的

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我觉得我们是邻居这点帮了不少忙

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我们都住在哈佛的初级教师宿舍

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部分原因是因为相比我们非常低的薪水来说

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剑桥的住宿费太高了

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我觉得我们都不是来自剑桥这一点

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也帮了不少忙

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那里有很多麻省理工的人

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他们已经有自己的社交圈了

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就像我们的合作者一样

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♪ [音乐] ♪

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- [Josh] 我觉得我们琢磨出

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一套适合我们的工作方式

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我们过的非常规律，所以才能是邻居

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我们经常一起洗衣服

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在我们的公寓里没有洗衣机

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但我们过去经常洗衣服，经常一起聊天

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你有一种非常系统的方式

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来解决我们讨论中会出现的问题

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我印象深刻的一件事是

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我们早期的互动，你会持续跟进

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你会把事情记下来

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回想那段时间，还是挺记忆犹新的

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我有大量的时间去思考

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我现在看到我初级的同事们

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[Guido] 你现在没空思考了

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[Josh] 没有，但是对我来说，这是一回事

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我现在觉得很多初级同事

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没有足够多的时间思考

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人们在做很多项目

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这些项目都很难

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人们出版的压力很大

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我记得我花很多时间坐在我的办公室里

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想着 “我现在应该干什么？”

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[笑声]

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我有很多时间

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去想这些问题

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然后尝试解决它们

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我可以去研讨会

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然后第二天和 Josh 或者 Gary 
一起喝咖啡或者吃午饭

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然后讨论事情

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- [Isaiah] 你们一起在哈佛的时间

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其实没有那么长

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你们很快就在一起工作了

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你们当时是否都在寻找共同作者的心态

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或者当时正在寻找特定类型的共同作者

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还是比这更偶然？

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- [Josh] 我觉得我们很幸运

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我不记得我在寻找什么

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我觉得这更多是偶然

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我说我进来了，我已经做完了我的就业市场论文

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以及另一篇论文

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我很高兴来到哈佛

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突然间有所有这些研讨会可以参加

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还有很多有趣的人可以交谈

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但这对我来说并不是一件非常有意识的事情

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回想起来，我想有一段时间

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我和 Guido 讨论了

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工具变量、潜在结果、治疗效果

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我们进行了很好的讨论

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之后他也给我发了一些笔记

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这些笔记非常有条理的记录了我们的讨论

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和您的想法

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我们以一种相当正式的方式得出结论

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我想，“嗯，那太好了。”

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光说没用，对吧，但是和...

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- [Guido] 对，但是
- 书写了他们的故事

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- [Guido] 对我来说，把事情写下来更好

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我记得和 Josh 一起工作

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坐在我的办公室里，把事情写下来

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你们都和 Gary 说过话

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之后我们需要坐下来

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真正写下事情

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以弄清楚到底发生了什么

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我记得另一件我们一起做的事情，Guido

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我们从应用当中

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得出来很多非常具体的问题

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- [Guido] 对

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在我看来，我们学习的

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很多计量经济学都是关于模型的

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这里有一个模型，你对这个模型有什么看法？

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我想我们在考虑，这是一个特殊的场景

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草拟资格是衡量你是否在军队服役的一个工具

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我们学到了什么？

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- [Guido] 没错

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对，这就是你对我现在研究方式

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影响仍然非常明显的地方——

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♪ [音乐] ♪

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- [Isaiah] 回到现在一点，

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想想你们什么时候开始研究这个

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什么时候开始一起工作

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对于那些只想

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找到富有成效的合著者的人

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有什么想法吗？

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Guido 已经提到过，时间的重要性

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这个是对的

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没有足够多的时间思考是很容易的

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你一定要创造时间

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这是个问题 Isaiah

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我跟我的学生说

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挑选合著者的时候需要足够细心

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甚至要比挑选伴侣时更细心

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你想找到的合著者

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和你需要有互补

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这可以加强关系

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你不想与和你看世界一样的人

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一起工作

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虽然我和 Guido 可以达成一致

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但是我们经常争论

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这些讨论非常有效果

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我们有互补的能力

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我非常的经验主义
我不能空想

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Guido 对于梳理出概念非常在行

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对，我完全统一

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这样的关系非常好

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你看很多人在一起工作

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但是未必效果很好

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有很多时候跳出这种关系非常难

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好的合作关系，非常美好，就像婚姻一样

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会孕育出很棒的孩子

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学术研究的成果很可能非常好

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超出独自创作的能力

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但是一个不好的合著关系可以是毁灭式的

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费时间，痛苦，就像不好的婚姻一样

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争论可能始于谁在何时做了什么

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以及知识产权类型问题

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尤其是当事情变得有点糟糕

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并且有人认为对方没有发挥作用时

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在经济学中，合著关系越来越多

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我记得这是有记载的，多得多

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- [Guido] 没错

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有更多的团队，也有更大的团队

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我认为这很棒，我喜欢在团队中工作

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我们确实在有大团队的学校工作

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我经常和宾大的团队合作，
像 Parag Pathak 和 David Autor

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以及研究生团队

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我发现学生的合作，并不是一直

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在某种程度上过于杂乱

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。

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他们思考不清楚

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思考清楚很难

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我觉得对于我来说，和人合作

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意味着要花很多一对一的时间

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你要搞清楚他们怎么思考

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他们对什么问题感兴趣

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他们对于这些问题有什么想法

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他们喜欢怎么写作...

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适应每个人的性格需要一些成熟度

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- 对，对
- [Isaiah] 怎么说？

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知道什么对他们有用

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知道什么时候有用还是什么时候没用？

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- [Josh] 成熟的意思是有一些判断

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才能诚实地面对它，如果进展不顺利

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有时你必须进行一些艰难的讨论

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继续有意义吗？

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“我希望你这样做，但你没有”

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也许事实证明在另一个方向上有一些感觉

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同样的方式

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Josh 很棒

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诚实的来说，从一开始就是

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- [Josh] 无论好坏

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- [Guido] 我把这些事情写下来，然后我记得

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我记得和 Rubin 的第一稿论文

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Josh 那时在以色列

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我和 Don 在剑桥

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所以我和 Don 会经常交流

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但是 Don 那时并没有做太多写作

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我会把东西写下来，然后传真给 Josh

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然后他会回复我

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第一页上写着一个大大的 “不”

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第二页，一行写着 “不”

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会持续一段时间，他现在还这样

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我把我诺贝尔演讲的第一稿发给他

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然后 Josh 说 “不，不！”

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我得到了一些 PDF 批注，
就像 Josh 的，非常有用

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省略不必要的词

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我只有少量的合著者愿意这么做

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特别是年纪变大以后，更难忍这种事情

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我会发现现在开始与早期在合著者关系中

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这样做的人合作变得更加困难

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这特别困难因为你需要有足够的信任

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Josh，愿意变得非常具有批判性

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永远愿意承认错误

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♪ [音乐] ♪

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