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♪ [音乐] ♪

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欢迎来到诺贝尔谈话

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本集中 Josh Angrist 
和 Guido Imbens

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将会和 Isaiah Andrews 
一同探讨

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他们获得诺贝尔奖的合作中的一些关键部分

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Josh，Guido，首先恭喜你们
获得了诺贝尔奖！

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谢谢

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- [Isaiah] 你们一起完成的工作

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特别是在局部平均处理效应

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或 LATE 框架

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据说是获奖的重要原因之一

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而且，你们在哈佛重合的时间只有一年

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如果我没记错的话——

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跟我们分享一下

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你们是如何开始合作的

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以及是什么让你们的工作关系富有成效

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有没有什么方式让你觉得可以互相称赞

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是什么让事情变得这么有成效？

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我记得你的工作，Guido，没那么有意思

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但我觉得这是一个基于选择的样本

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是的，是的

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我其实是一个非常边缘化的雇员

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因为他们根本没按正常的招聘市场那样面试我

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。

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但我觉得他们非常急切的需要一个人

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来教授这些课程

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其实已经过去好几个研讨会了

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但他们还想找人来教计量经济学

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- 所以 Gary 给我打电话
- [Josh] Gary Chamberlain?

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Gary Chamberlain 打给我
然后电话面试了我

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他说：“要不你来一趟

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我们谈谈？”

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- [Josh] 我有点印象

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我记得我们和 Gary 一起吃了个晚饭

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我记得我对你的工作经验不是非常满意

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但幸运的是，Gary 的观点占了上风

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没错

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- [Josh] 然后哈佛给了你录取通知

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然后从你1990年秋天来了以后

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我记得我们就经常在一起讲话了，对吧？

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就像我说的，我来了以后
没有一个清楚的日常安排

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来了以后我有点被吓到

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但是 Gary 说 “不
你应该和 Josh 谈谈”

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你应该去参加劳工研讨会
看看这些人是怎么做的

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他们做的事挺有意思的

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我听了 Gary 的

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就像我们一样

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就像我们当年以及之后所做的

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我觉得我们是邻居这点帮了不少忙

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我们都住在哈佛的初级教师宿舍

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部分原因是因为相比我们非常低的薪水来说

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剑桥的住宿费太高了

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我觉得我们都不是来自剑桥这一点

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也帮了不少忙

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那里有很多麻省理工的人

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他们已经有自己的社交圈了

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就像我们的合作者一样

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♪ [音乐] ♪

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- [Josh] 我觉得我们琢磨出

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一套适合我们的工作方式

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我们过的非常规律，所以才能是邻居

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我们经常一起洗衣服

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在我们的公寓里没有洗衣机

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但我们过去经常洗衣服，经常一起聊天

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你有一种非常系统的方式

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来解决我们讨论中会出现的问题

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我印象深刻的一件事是

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我们早期的互动，你会持续跟进

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你会把事情记下来

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回想那段时间，还是挺记忆犹新的

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我有大量的时间去思考

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我现在看到我初级的同事们

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[Guido] 你现在没空思考了

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[Josh] 没有，但是对我来说，这是一回事

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我现在觉得很多初级同事

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没有足够多的时间思考

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人们在做很多项目

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这些项目都很难

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人们出版的压力很大

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我记得我花很多时间坐在我的办公室里

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想着 “我现在应该干什么？”

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[笑声]

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我有很多时间

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去想这些问题

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然后尝试解决它们

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我可以去研讨会

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然后第二天和 Josh 或者 Gary 
一起喝咖啡或者吃午饭

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然后讨论事情

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- [Isaiah] 你们一起在哈佛的时间

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其实没有那么长

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你们很快就在一起工作了

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你们当时是否都在寻找共同作者的心态

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或者当时正在寻找特定类型的共同作者

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还是比这更偶然？

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- [Josh] 我觉得我们很幸运

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我不记得我在寻找什么

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我觉得这更多是偶然

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我说我进来了，我已经做完了我的就业市场论文

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以及另一篇论文

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我很高兴来到哈佛

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突然间有所有这些研讨会可以参加

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还有很多有趣的人可以交谈

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但这对我来说并不是一件非常有意识的事情

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回想起来，我想有一段时间

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我和 Guido 讨论了

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工具变量、潜在结果、治疗效果

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我们进行了很好的讨论

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之后他也给我发了一些笔记

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这些笔记非常有条理的记录了我们的讨论

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和您的想法

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我们以一种相当正式的方式得出结论

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我想，“嗯，那太好了。”

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光说没用，对吧，但是和...

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- [Guido] 对，但是
- 书写了他们的故事

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- [Guido] 对我来说，把事情写下来更好

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我记得和 Josh 一起工作

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坐在我的办公室里，把事情写下来

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你们都和 Gary 说过话

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之后我们需要坐下来

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真正写下事情

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以弄清楚到底发生了什么

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我记得另一件我们一起做的事情，Guido

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我们从应用当中

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得出来很多非常具体的问题

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- [Guido] 对

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在我看来，我们学习的

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很多计量经济学都是关于模型的

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这里有一个模型，你对这个模型有什么看法？

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我想我们在考虑，这是一个特殊的场景

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草拟资格是衡量你是否在军队服役的一个工具

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我们学到了什么？

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- [Guido] 没错

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对，这就是你对我现在研究方式

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影响仍然非常明显的地方——

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♪ [音乐] ♪

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- [Isaiah] 回到现在一点，

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想想你们什么时候开始研究这个

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什么时候开始一起工作

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对于那些只想

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找到富有成效的合著者的人

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有什么想法吗？

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Guido 已经提到过，时间的重要性

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这个是对的

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没有足够多的时间思考是很容易的

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你一定要创造时间

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这是个问题 Isaiah

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我跟我的学生说

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挑选合著者的时候需要足够细心

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甚至要比挑选伴侣时更细心

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你想找到的合著者

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和你需要有互补

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这可以加强关系

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你不想与和你看世界一样的人

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一起工作

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虽然我和 Guido 可以达成一致

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但是我们经常争论

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这些讨论非常有效果

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我们有互补的能力

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我非常的经验主义
我不能空想

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Guido 对于梳理出概念非常在行

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对，我完全统一

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这样的关系非常好

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你看很多人在一起工作

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但是未必效果很好

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有很多时候跳出这种关系非常难

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好的合作关系，非常美好，就像婚姻一样

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会孕育出很棒的孩子

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学术研究的成果很可能非常好

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超出独自创作的能力

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但是一个不好的合著关系可以是毁灭式的

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费时间，痛苦，就像不好的婚姻一样

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争论可能始于谁在何时做了什么

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以及知识产权类型问题

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尤其是当事情变得有点糟糕

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并且有人认为对方没有发挥作用时

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在经济学中，合著关系越来越多

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我记得这是有记载的，多得多

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- [Guido] 没错

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有更多的团队，也有更大的团队

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我认为这很棒，我喜欢在团队中工作

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我们确实在有大团队的学校工作

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我经常和宾大的团队合作，
像 Parag Pathak 和 David Autor

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以及研究生团队

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我发现学生的合作，并不是一直

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在某种程度上过于杂乱

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。

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他们思考不清楚

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思考清楚很难

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我觉得对于我来说，和人合作

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意味着要花很多一对一的时间

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你要搞清楚他们怎么思考

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他们对什么问题感兴趣

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他们对于这些问题有什么想法

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他们喜欢怎么写作...

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适应每个人的性格需要一些成熟度

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- 对，对
- [Isaiah] 怎么说？

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知道什么对他们有用

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知道什么时候有用还是什么时候没用？

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- [Josh] 成熟的意思是有一些判断

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才能诚实地面对它，如果进展不顺利

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有时你必须进行一些艰难的讨论

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继续有意义吗？

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“我希望你这样做，但你没有”

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也许事实证明在另一个方向上有一些感觉

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同样的方式

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Josh 很棒

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诚实的来说，从一开始就是

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- [Josh] 无论好坏

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- [Guido] 我把这些事情写下来，然后我记得

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我记得和 Rubin 的第一稿论文

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Josh 那时在以色列

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我和 Don 在剑桥

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所以我和 Don 会经常交流

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但是 Don 那时并没有做太多写作

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我会把东西写下来，然后传真给 Josh

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00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:20,470


232
00:11:20,470 --> 00:11:22,500


233
00:11:22,500 --> 00:11:25,370


234
00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,010


235
00:11:28,010 --> 00:11:29,710


236
00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:33,000


237
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:37,365


238
00:11:37,779 --> 00:11:39,763


239
00:11:40,220 --> 00:11:43,131


240
00:11:43,131 --> 00:11:46,134


241
00:11:46,134 --> 00:11:49,176


242
00:11:49,730 --> 00:11:56,283


243
00:11:58,500 --> 00:12:00,838


244
00:12:00,838 --> 00:12:02,800


245
00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:04,380


246
00:12:04,680 --> 00:12:07,570


247
00:12:07,570 --> 00:12:10,270


248
00:12:10,270 --> 00:12:11,880


249
00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,430


250
00:12:14,430 --> 00:12:16,910


251
00:12:16,910 --> 00:12:19,460


252
00:12:20,620 --> 00:12:21,990


253
00:12:21,990 --> 00:12:25,270


254
00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,300


255
00:12:30,020 --> 00:12:31,420


256
00:12:31,420 --> 00:12:34,550


257
00:12:34,550 --> 00:12:37,034


258
00:12:38,770 --> 00:12:40,400


259
00:12:41,250 --> 00:12:44,167


260
00:12:44,780 --> 00:12:46,700


261
00:12:46,900 --> 00:12:48,200


262
00:12:48,601 --> 00:12:53,534


263
00:12:53,534 --> 00:12:57,111


264
00:12:57,111 --> 00:13:01,097


265
00:13:02,710 --> 00:13:07,532


266
00:13:07,900 --> 00:13:11,700


267
00:13:11,700 --> 00:13:13,199


268
00:13:13,199 --> 00:13:18,704


269
00:13:19,530 --> 00:13:22,190


270
00:13:22,190 --> 00:13:25,600


271
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:26,990


272
00:13:26,990 --> 00:13:30,367


273
00:13:30,367 --> 00:13:31,860


274
00:13:31,860 --> 00:13:36,210


275
00:13:37,810 --> 00:13:39,500


276
00:13:39,500 --> 00:13:40,500


277
00:13:40,500 --> 00:13:44,600


278
00:13:45,410 --> 00:13:47,100


279
00:13:47,100 --> 00:13:51,960


280
00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,040


281
00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:59,100


282
00:13:59,300 --> 00:14:00,740


283
00:14:00,740 --> 00:14:04,100


284
00:14:04,100 --> 00:14:05,100


285
00:14:05,100 --> 00:14:07,005


286
00:14:07,860 --> 00:14:09,729


287
00:14:10,604 --> 00:14:12,441


288
00:14:14,420 --> 00:14:19,613


289
00:14:19,613 --> 00:14:22,348


290
00:14:22,733 --> 00:14:25,220


291
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,307


292
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,360


293
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,500


294
00:14:35,500 --> 00:14:37,270


295
00:14:37,270 --> 00:14:40,700


296
00:14:40,700 --> 00:14:42,630


297
00:14:42,630 --> 00:14:44,500


298
00:14:44,500 --> 00:14:46,300


299
00:14:46,300 --> 00:14:48,560


300
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,462


301
00:14:51,462 --> 00:14:53,190


302
00:14:53,190 --> 00:14:54,760


303
00:14:55,300 --> 00:14:57,361


304
00:14:58,251 --> 00:15:00,588


305
00:15:00,588 --> 00:15:02,150


306
00:15:02,150 --> 00:15:06,477


307
00:15:06,477 --> 00:15:08,358


308
00:15:08,900 --> 00:15:13,512


309
00:15:13,512 --> 00:15:15,000


310
00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:18,731


311
00:15:19,300 --> 00:15:24,314


312
00:15:25,500 --> 00:15:28,400


313
00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,300


314
00:15:33,330 --> 00:15:36,885


315
00:15:36,885 --> 00:15:40,300


316
00:15:40,300 --> 00:15:41,949


317
00:15:41,949 --> 00:15:44,000


318
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:48,400


319
00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,100


320
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,300


321
00:15:53,300 --> 00:15:56,600


322
00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,100


323
00:15:59,100 --> 00:16:01,380


324
00:16:01,380 --> 00:16:04,900


325
00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:07,250


326
00:16:07,250 --> 00:16:08,690


327
00:16:08,690 --> 00:16:09,813


328
00:16:09,813 --> 00:16:10,831


329
00:16:10,831 --> 00:16:12,240


330
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,100


331
00:16:15,100 --> 00:16:17,300


332
00:16:18,020 --> 00:16:21,707


333
00:16:21,707 --> 00:16:23,814


334
00:16:23,814 --> 00:16:26,900


335
00:16:26,900 --> 00:16:31,000


336
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,000


337
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:35,980


338
00:16:36,290 --> 00:16:37,920


339
00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,047


340
00:16:40,047 --> 00:16:45,200


341
00:16:46,590 --> 00:16:48,620


342
00:16:49,350 --> 00:16:53,610


343
00:16:53,890 --> 00:16:55,900


344
00:16:55,900 --> 00:16:58,000


345
00:16:58,000 --> 00:16:59,270


346
00:16:59,270 --> 00:17:00,990


347
00:17:00,990 --> 00:17:02,670


348
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:07,664


349
00:17:07,664 --> 00:17:10,600


350
00:17:11,300 --> 00:17:12,500


351
00:17:12,500 --> 00:17:15,940


352
00:17:15,940 --> 00:17:19,000


353
00:17:19,710 --> 00:17:22,000


354
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:23,260


355
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,758


356
00:17:30,758 --> 00:17:33,098


357
00:17:33,098 --> 00:17:35,448


358
00:17:35,448 --> 00:17:37,128


359
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:41,000


360
00:17:42,810 --> 00:17:44,310


361
00:17:44,310 --> 00:17:46,310


362
00:17:49,340 --> 00:17:51,710


363
00:17:51,710 --> 00:17:55,550


364
00:17:55,550 --> 00:17:57,000


365
00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:01,530


366
00:18:01,530 --> 00:18:02,530


367
00:18:02,530 --> 00:18:04,300


368
00:18:04,300 --> 00:18:07,730


369
00:18:07,730 --> 00:18:12,887


370
00:18:12,887 --> 00:18:15,687


371
00:18:15,687 --> 00:18:18,267


372
00:18:18,267 --> 00:18:20,678


373
00:18:20,689 --> 00:18:24,300


374
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,550


375
00:18:27,550 --> 00:18:28,790


376
00:18:29,430 --> 00:18:32,810


377
00:18:32,810 --> 00:18:34,800


378
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:36,800


379
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,810


380
00:18:39,810 --> 00:18:42,400


381
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,500


382
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,350


383
00:18:50,350 --> 00:18:52,210


384
00:18:52,210 --> 00:18:53,500


385
00:18:53,500 --> 00:18:55,480


386
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,885


387
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,869


388
00:19:03,270 --> 00:19:06,542


389
00:19:07,500 --> 00:19:11,618


390
00:19:11,990 --> 00:19:13,210


391
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,879


392
00:19:16,710 --> 00:19:18,612


393
00:19:20,300 --> 00:19:22,672


394
00:19:22,672 --> 00:19:24,995


395
00:19:26,300 --> 00:19:28,346


396
00:19:28,346 --> 00:19:31,400


397
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:35,350


398
00:19:35,350 --> 00:19:37,140


399
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,730


400
00:19:41,300 --> 00:19:43,757


401
00:19:43,757 --> 00:19:45,356


402
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,940


403
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,400


404
00:19:54,740 --> 00:19:56,011


405
00:19:56,011 --> 00:19:58,022


406
00:19:59,620 --> 00:20:04,133


407
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:09,193


408
00:20:09,193 --> 00:20:11,790


409
00:20:11,790 --> 00:20:13,350


410
00:20:13,350 --> 00:20:14,375


411
00:20:14,375 --> 00:20:15,990


412
00:20:15,990 --> 00:20:18,198


413
00:20:18,198 --> 00:20:20,516


414
00:20:20,516 --> 00:20:23,290


415
00:20:23,845 --> 00:20:26,713


416
00:20:26,713 --> 00:20:28,514


417
00:20:28,514 --> 00:20:30,347