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♪ [music] ♪

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- [Narrator] Welcome to [br]Nobel Conversations.

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In this episode,[br]Josh Angrist and Guido Imbens,

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sit down with Isaiah Andrews [br]to discuss the key ingredients

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in their Nobel-winning collaboration.

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Josh and Guido, first [br]congratulations on the Nobel Prize!

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Thank you.

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- [Isaiah] The work you did together,[br]particularly the work

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on the Local Average Treatment Effect,[br]or LATE framework

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was cited as one of the big reasons[br]you won the prize.

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At the same time, you only[br]overlapped at Harvard for a year--

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if I'm remembering correctly--

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it would be great to hear [br]a bit more

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about how you started [br]this collaboration

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and what made your working[br]relationship productive.

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Are there ways in which you felt like [br]you complimented each other,

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what got things started[br]on such a productive trajectory?

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Your job talk, as I recall, Guido,[br]it wasn't very interesting

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but I think it was [br]a choice-based sampling--

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It was. It was.[br][laughter]

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I was a very marginal hire there

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because they didn't [br]actually interview me

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on the regular job market,

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but I think they were very desperate [br]to get someone else

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to actually teach their courses.

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It was after they had [br]a couple of seminars already

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and they're still looking [br]in econometrics,

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- ...so Gary called me and kind of--[br]- [Josh] Gary Chamberlain?

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Gary Chamberlain called me and[br]interviewed me over the telephone.

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He said, "Okay, well, why don't you [br]come out and give a talk?"

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- [Josh] I remember this talk [br]a little bit.

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I remember the dinner that [br]you and Gary and I had.

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I remember not being very excited[br]about your job market paper,

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but I saw that Gary was and luckily,[br]Gary's view prevailed...

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Yes.

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- [Josh] ...and Harvard [br]made you an offer

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and I think we started talking to [br]each other pretty pretty soon after

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you arrived in the fall of 1990, [br]right?

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As I said, I came [br]and I didn't have a very clear agenda.

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I was a little intimidated getting there.

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But Gary kind of said, [br]"No, you should talk to Josh."

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You should go to the labor seminar,[br]kind of see what these people do.

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They're doing very [br]interesting things there."

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I listened to Gary.

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As we did.

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As we did in the those days [br]and ever since.

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I think it helped that [br]we were neighbors.

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We both lived in Harvard's[br]junior faculty housing,

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partly because housing costs[br]were very high in Cambridge

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relative to our salary, [br]which was very low.

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I think it also made a difference,

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neither of us came from Cambridge,

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so there were a lot of MIT people

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who already had their whole networks,

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kind of our collaborators.

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♪ [music] ♪

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- [Josh] Well, I think we figured out

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a mode of working together, also.

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We had kind of a regular date, [br]so we were neighbors

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and we often did [br]our laundry together.

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We didn't have laundry[br]machines at our apartments.

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But we used to do our laundry[br]and we were talking

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and you had a way [br]of fairly systematically,

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addressing questions that[br]would come up in our discussions

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and the one thing that [br]I was very impressed by,

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our early interaction,[br]is you would follow up.

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You would write some things down.

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Looking back at those days,[br]sort of clearly,

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I just had a lot more time [br]to actually think.

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- I look at my junior colleagues now-- [br]- You don't have time to think now.

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No, but for me that is [br]kind of one thing,

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but I feel now a lot of [br]my junior colleagues

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don't actually have a lot [br]of time to think.

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People are just doing [br]so many projects,

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and it's actually so hard

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and there's so much pressure [br]on people to publish.

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I remember spending a lot of time [br]sitting in my office

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and thinking, [br]"Wow, what shall I do now?"

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[laughter]

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But it would give me a lot of time

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to actually think about [br]these problems

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and trying to figure it them out

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and I could actually go to seminars

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and then the next day have coffee [br]or lunch with Josh or Gary

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and actually talk about [br]those things.

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- [Isaiah] You guys weren't actually [br]at Harvard together all that long,

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you started working[br]together pretty quickly.

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Were you both in the mindset that [br]you were looking for co-authors,

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or looking for a particular type[br]of types of co-authors at the time

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or was it more sort of [br]fortuitous than that?

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- [Josh] I think we were lucky.

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I don't remember that I was looking.

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I think, it was more fortuitous.

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I said I came in, [br]I'd done my job market paper,

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and another paper for my thesis

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and I was just very happy [br]to come to Harvard

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and suddenly there were all these[br]seminars to go to,

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and lots of interesting people [br]to talk to,

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but it wasn't a very[br]conscious thing on my part.

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Looking back, I think there[br]was a moment for me,

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where I was discussing [br]instrumental variables,

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potential outcomes, [br]treatment effects with Guido

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and we had a pretty good discussion,

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but then he also sent me some notes

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and the notes were very methodical[br]write-up of our discussion

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and what you thought

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we had been concluding [br]in a fairly formal way

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and I thought, [br]"Well, that's great."

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Talk is cheap, right, [br]but with somebody...

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- [Guido] Yeah, but--[br]- ...really writes out their story.

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- [Guido] For me, it really helps[br]writing things down

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and I do remember working with Josh

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and sitting in my office [br]and writing things out

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and you guys have all[br]had the discussions with Gary

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where afterwards we need [br]to then sit down

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and actually write things up

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to figure out exactly [br]what was going on.

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I think the other thing we had, [br]Guido,

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is we had some [br]very concrete questions

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that came from applications.

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- [Guido] Yeah.

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A lot of econometrics, in my view,

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that we were schooled in [br]was about models,

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here's a model and what can [br]you say about this model?

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I think we were thinking about, [br]here's a particular scenario,

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draft eligibility is an instrument[br]for whether you serve in the Army.

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What do we learn from that?

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- [Guido] That's right.

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That's right, and that's sort of [br]where your influence

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on the way I do research now [br]is still very clear--

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♪ [music] ♪

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- [Isaiah] Zooming out [br]a little bit, just thinking about

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when you guys started [br]working on this,

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when you started working together,

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any thoughts for folks

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who are just interested in[br]finding productive

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co-authors being productive?

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I mean, Guido already mentioned[br]the importance of having time,

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right, which it is.

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It is very easily not to have [br]a lot of time to think--

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You definitely have to make time.

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That's a great question though, [br]Isaiah,

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and I tell my students that

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you should pick your co-authors [br]as carefully,

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maybe more carefully [br]than you pick your spouse.

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You want to find co-authors who,

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you have some complementarity

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and that's what makes [br]a strong relationship.

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You don't want to work with somebody[br]who sees the world exactly like you

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and as much as Guido [br]and I agree about things,

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we often disagree [br]about things to this day

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and it's fruitful to have [br]those discussions

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and we had complimentary skills.

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I was very empirical. [br]I'm not really an abstract thinker.

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Guido was great at figuring out [br]what the principles were.

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Yeah, that's right and I totally[br]agree, kind of [inaudible].

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These are incredibly[br]important relationships

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and you see a lot of[br]people working together

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and not necessarily working [br]very well

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and then it's very hard often [br]to get out of this relationship.

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A good partnering is a[br]beautiful thing, like a marriage.

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It produces wonderful children,

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the fruits of the scholarship are[br]potentially wonderful

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and they exceed the capacity of the[br]partners to do it on their own

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but a bad co-authorship [br]can be very destructive

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and time consuming and painful,[br]just like a bad marriage.

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Arguments may start about [br]who did what when

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and intellectual property[br]type issues,

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especially when it when [br]it goes a little sour

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and somebody thinks the other party[br]is not pulling their weight.

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There's more co-authorship[br]now in economics,

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I think that's been documented, [br]much more.

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- [Guido] Yes.

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There's more teams[br]and there's larger teams

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and I think that's great, [br]I love working on teams.

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We do work on schools [br]with big teams.

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I work often with PI teammates [br]like Parag Pathak and David Autor

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and then a team of [br]graduate students,

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but I see that the students [br]are not always,

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in some ways they're a little [br]too promiscuous,

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in my view, in their partnering.

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They don't think it through.

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It's difficult to think it through.

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I think, for me, working[br]with people always has involved

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spending a lot of one-on-one[br]time with people,

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you need to figure out [br]how they think

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and what kind of problems [br]they're interested in

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and how they think about [br]these problems,

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how they like to write, [br]to make that--

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And it takes some maturity on[br]everybody's part.

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- Yes. Yes.[br]- [Isaiah] In what sense?

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Just in the sense of knowing [br]what's going to work for them,

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knowing when things are[br]versus aren't working?

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- [Josh] Maturity in the[br]sense of having some judgment

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to be able to face it honestly,[br]if it's not going well,

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sometimes you have to have [br]some difficult discussions.

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Is it worth continuing?

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"I was hoping you would do this, [br]and you didn't,"

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maybe it turns out [br]there's some feeling

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in the other direction, [br]the same way.

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And Josh is very good[br][chuckles]

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in the being honest,[br]part from the beginning,

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- [Josh] For better or worse.

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- [Guido] I would write this stuff [br]and then I remember

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the first version of the paper [br]with Rubin,

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Josh was in Israel at the time,

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Don and I were in Cambridge

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and so I would talk [br]with Don regularly,

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but Don wasn't really doing[br]much writing in those days,

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I would write things [br]and then I would fax them to Josh

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and they would come back, [br]first page just one big cross, "No,"

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second page, one big line, "No"

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and that would go for awhile[br]but he still does that.

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I sent him the first draft [br]of my Nobel lecture,

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and Josh goes, [br]"No, no!"

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I've gotten some PDF comments [br]like that from Josh, very helpful.

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Omit needless words.

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I have few co-authors[br]who are willing to do that.

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Especially as you get older, [br]it's harder to put up with that.

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I would find it harder now to start[br]working with people who did that

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early on in a co-author [br]relationship.

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It's also very hard because [br]you need to have enough trust.

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Josh, for being willing [br]to be very critical,

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he was also willing [br]to admit being wrong.

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♪ [music] ♪

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- [Josh] But you have to be on[br]the lookout for good partners,

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somebody who can help you [br]answer questions

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that you can't answer yourself.

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I think there's a natural tendency [br]for people to gravitate

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to people who are similar [br]in outlook and skills

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and that's not as useful.

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- [Guido] Josh is right, nowadays [br]it's very tempting

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to find people who think [br]about the same problems

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you're already thinking about,[br]who think along the same lines

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and that may not lead [br]to very novel stuff.

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But at the same time finding people

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who actually have [br]very different ideas,

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it's going to take a lot of time.

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Guido, you mentioned in passing [br]how working with Josh

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has influenced how you do research,

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could you say a little more [br]about that?

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I'd also be interested [br]to hear from Josh,

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did working with Guido influence [br]the way that you do research?

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- [Guido] Nowadays, I'm much [br]more conscious of the fact that,

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for me, good economic research

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comes out of talking to people [br]doing empirical work,

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and it's really not reading [br]econometrica

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or the reading the stats journals,

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but it's actually talking to people[br]doing empirical work,

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going to the empirical seminars.

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When I was at Berkeley,

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David Carr and Raj Chetty, [br]as colleagues there

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and I would talk to them [br]and listen to them,

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trying to figure out

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how are they solving their problems[br]and other things there

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where I'm not really quite happy [br]with the way they're doing things

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and trying to look for [br]methodological problems,

0:13:02.710,0:13:07.532
where there's some more [br]general solutions possible.

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I tried to tell it to my students[br]that I encourage them to work

0:13:11.700,0:13:13.199
as research assistants also,

0:13:13.199,0:13:18.704
for the people doing empirical work[br]at Stanford.

0:13:19.700,0:13:21.920
There was no subbing what I learned[br]while I was in graduate school,

0:13:21.920,0:13:25.600
but it really came out of [br]working with Josh,

0:13:25.600,0:13:26.990
as well as talking to Gary,

0:13:26.990,0:13:30.367
Gary was always encouraging [br]of doing that

0:13:30.367,0:13:31.860
and because he done that himself,

0:13:31.860,0:13:36.210
he'd worked with on empirical [br]problems with Zvi Griliches

0:13:37.810,0:13:39.500
early in his career.

0:13:39.500,0:13:40.500
Yeah.

0:13:40.500,0:13:44.600
Well, I became more more interested[br]in the econometric theory

0:13:45.410,0:13:47.100
through our interaction,

0:13:47.100,0:13:51.960
and I think empiricists are often [br]impatient with econometric theory,

0:13:51.960,0:13:55.040
partly because empirical work is[br]very time-consuming,

0:13:55.040,0:13:59.100
and you may have a sense [br]that something is

0:13:59.300,0:14:00.740
convincing and sensible

0:14:00.740,0:14:04.100
and you haven't really fully [br]made the case for that,

0:14:04.100,0:14:05.100
but you're convinced

0:14:05.100,0:14:07.005
and that motivates you [br]to pursue it,

0:14:07.860,0:14:09.729
like the draft lottery story.

0:14:10.604,0:14:12.441
I was pretty sure that was[br]worth doing

0:14:14.420,0:14:19.613
and I came away from [br]working with Guido

0:14:19.613,0:14:22.348
seeing that there was [br]the potential to say something

0:14:22.733,0:14:25.220
more than just about [br]that particular problem,

0:14:26.560,0:14:29.307
and I think over the those early[br]years in the 90s,

0:14:31.600,0:14:33.360
our thinking evolved together

0:14:33.360,0:14:35.500
that there's actually [br]a framework here,

0:14:35.500,0:14:37.270
a way to solve a lot of problems

0:14:37.270,0:14:40.700
and I think that that is the power[br]of the LATE framework,

0:14:40.700,0:14:42.630
is it answers a lot of questions.

0:14:42.630,0:14:44.500
♪ [music] ♪

0:14:44.500,0:14:46.300
- [Isaiah] In some sense, [br]did you find that,

0:14:46.300,0:14:48.560
email versus facts [br]versus in-person,

0:14:48.560,0:14:51.462
the medium mattered[br]to how collaboration went

0:14:51.462,0:14:53.190
or they're ways that you felt like

0:14:53.190,0:14:54.760
it was the most useful [br]to collaborate?

0:14:55.300,0:14:57.361
To me, I think [br]what matters most is,

0:14:58.251,0:15:00.588
initially you have a period of--

0:15:00.588,0:15:02.150
We needed that initial period,

0:15:02.150,0:15:06.477
that was very intense with [br]almost daily interaction

0:15:06.477,0:15:08.358
and we also became friends.

0:15:08.900,0:15:13.512
You don't develop the kind of [br]friendship, electronically usually

0:15:13.512,0:15:15.000
[laughter]

0:15:15.000,0:15:18.731
but once you have that foundation [br]you can be pen pals

0:15:19.300,0:15:24.314
and we did use email, [br]though it wasn't as useful then

0:15:25.500,0:15:28.400
but it worked, [br]we definitely had a lot of faxes.

0:15:28.400,0:15:31.300
I still have these faxes, [br]long faxes

0:15:33.330,0:15:36.885
and then in the summer, [br]I would come to Cambridge,

0:15:36.885,0:15:40.300
usually to the NBR meetings [br]and hang around for a few weeks

0:15:40.300,0:15:41.949
and you visited me in Israel.

0:15:41.949,0:15:44.000
I visited in Israel.

0:15:44.000,0:15:48.400
But yeah, there was good foundation[br]from that that year

0:15:49.000,0:15:51.100
and in some sense that was enough.

0:15:51.800,0:15:53.300
Nowadays,

0:15:53.300,0:15:56.600
I have the co-authors[br]in lots of different places,

0:15:56.600,0:15:59.100
but it's always been important

0:15:59.100,0:16:01.380
to spend some time with people [br]in the same place,

0:16:01.380,0:16:04.900
so you understand how they work, [br]how they think,

0:16:05.800,0:16:07.350
even to the point that,

0:16:07.350,0:16:08.490
you know when [br]they actually respond,

0:16:08.490,0:16:10.267
whether they respond quickly [br]or whether that means,

0:16:10.267,0:16:11.710
they're not actually doing anything

0:16:11.710,0:16:15.100
or that mean they're thinking hard [br]about a problem

0:16:15.100,0:16:17.300
and they just take longer,

0:16:18.020,0:16:21.707
but you do need to[br]develop some understanding there.

0:16:21.707,0:16:23.814
♪ [music] ♪

0:16:23.814,0:16:26.900
- [Isaiah] We've talked about [br]how your collaboration started,

0:16:26.900,0:16:31.000
maybe just to step back slightly,[br]were they're sort of features about

0:16:31.000,0:16:34.000
the environment at Harvard [br]or in Cambridge, at the time,

0:16:34.000,0:16:35.980
which you felt contributed to it?

0:16:36.290,0:16:37.920
Coming from Brown,

0:16:37.920,0:16:42.174
I felt it was very intimidating place[br]because it clearly was a very, very

0:16:43.500,0:16:45.200
impressive set of people.

0:16:46.590,0:16:48.620
Zvi Griliches was there, [br]Dale Jorgensen--

0:16:49.350,0:16:53.610
Gary, Jerry Hausman, Whitney Newey,[br]sometimes Jamie Robins.

0:16:53.890,0:16:55.900
I mean, my view of that [br]in retrospect,

0:16:55.900,0:16:58.000
I can't say I loved every[br]minute of every talk

0:16:58.000,0:16:59.270
I ever gave in that Workshop,

0:16:59.270,0:17:00.990
but that was the highest powered,

0:17:00.990,0:17:02.670
that was the group [br]you wanted to reach

0:17:03.600,0:17:07.664
and you would get extraordinarily [br]insightful feedback,

0:17:07.664,0:17:10.600
even if it wasn't always [br]easy to swallow.

0:17:11.300,0:17:12.500
Yeah, and I have for a while,

0:17:12.500,0:17:15.940
I would basically give [br]a talk every semester

0:17:15.940,0:17:19.000
because we didn't have any money[br]to invite people.

0:17:19.710,0:17:22.000
Gary would say, [br]"Well, why don't you give a talk?"

0:17:22.000,0:17:23.260
[laughter]

0:17:26.800,0:17:30.758
That was the arena for young people[br]with our interest.

0:17:30.758,0:17:33.098
- [Guido] Yeah, it was really [br]very impressive,

0:17:33.098,0:17:35.448
but it was also quite tough--

0:17:35.448,0:17:37.128
It was intimidating.

0:17:37.800,0:17:41.000
People there had very strong[br]views on what they thought was

0:17:42.810,0:17:44.310
the way you should do econometrics,

0:17:44.310,0:17:46.310
the way the direction [br]things should go,

0:17:49.340,0:17:51.710
now, I would think things were[br]getting a little stale,

0:17:51.710,0:17:55.550
that in fact, we were bringing in [br]a lot of the new ideas...

0:17:55.550,0:17:57.000
- [Josh] Yeah.

0:17:57.000,0:18:01.530
...and that wasn't necessary[br]immediately appreciated.

0:18:01.530,0:18:02.530
[laughter]

0:18:02.530,0:18:04.300
- [Josh] But that's okay.[br]- And that's fine.

0:18:04.300,0:18:07.730
We were pushed [br]and a lot of great discussions

0:18:07.730,0:18:12.887
in that workshop about [br]what should we make of LATE

0:18:12.887,0:18:15.687
but there were other questions[br]that were just as interesting,

0:18:15.687,0:18:18.267
like the role of [br]the propensity score,

0:18:18.267,0:18:20.678
that was a big deal in the 90s

0:18:20.689,0:18:24.300
and econometrics was [br]moving towards that

0:18:25.000,0:18:27.550
and there were a lot [br]of great questions.

0:18:27.550,0:18:28.790
Yeah,

0:18:29.430,0:18:32.810
I learned a huge amount[br]there from the time I spent--

0:18:32.810,0:18:34.760
- [Josh] I think the other thing [br]that Guido and I

0:18:34.760,0:18:36.800
both benefited from is we both,

0:18:37.400,0:18:39.810
not at the same time, but in[br]early in our careers,

0:18:39.810,0:18:42.400
taught econometrics [br]with Gary Chamberlain,

0:18:43.200,0:18:46.500
and that was like an[br]apprenticeship for us, I think.

0:18:46.800,0:18:50.530
I taught a mixed graduate,[br]undergrad 1126,

0:18:50.530,0:18:52.080
I don't know if they still have [br]that number...

0:18:52.080,0:18:53.500
- [Isaiah] Mmhmm, they do.

0:18:53.500,0:18:55.480
...very interesting course [br]that it had

0:18:55.480,0:18:57.885
both graduate and undergraduate [br]enrollment

0:18:58.800,0:19:02.869
and it was relatively applied for [br]an econometrics class,

0:19:03.270,0:19:06.542
and I learned a lot by teaching [br]that with Gary.

0:19:07.500,0:19:11.618
But in that sense, [br]Harvard was a great place,

0:19:11.990,0:19:13.210
very flexible there.

0:19:13.600,0:19:15.879
The other thing I remember [br]about Harvard is,

0:19:16.710,0:19:18.612
well I had very good students,

0:19:20.300,0:19:22.672
I taught a lot of [br]wonderful students

0:19:22.672,0:19:24.995
who went on to have [br]wonderful careers.

0:19:26.300,0:19:28.346
Also, Harvard as an institution,

0:19:28.346,0:19:31.400
you're probably are aware of this, [br]Isaiah,

0:19:31.400,0:19:35.350
as a junior faculty member, [br]they didn't then ask much of us,

0:19:35.350,0:19:37.140
other than teaching our classes.

0:19:37.640,0:19:40.730
We didn't have administrative concerns,[br]to speak of.

0:19:41.300,0:19:43.757
I think I went to two [br]faculty meetings

0:19:43.757,0:19:45.356
in my two years at Harvard

0:19:46.600,0:19:48.940
and so we're left--

0:19:50.920,0:19:53.400
You were given a lot of freedom [br]and flexibility.

0:19:54.740,0:19:58.022
I went to the chair said, [br]"Can I teach this course with Rubin?"

0:19:59.620,0:20:04.133
I think it was Friedman[br]at the time. It was like, "Fine."

0:20:05.200,0:20:09.193
It wasn't really any concern about [br]what what it was about

0:20:09.193,0:20:11.790
and again, that was a very [br]intimidating experience,

0:20:11.790,0:20:13.350
but it was a great experience.

0:20:13.350,0:20:14.385
♪ [music] ♪

0:20:14.385,0:20:15.620
- [Narrator] If you'd like to [br]watch more

0:20:15.620,0:20:17.943
Nobel Conversations, [br]click here,

0:20:18.198,0:20:20.516
or if you'd like to learn more [br]about econometrics,

0:20:20.516,0:20:23.290
check out Josh's [br]"Mastering Econometrics" series.

0:20:23.845,0:20:26.713
If you'd like to learn more about [br]Guido, Josh, and Isaiah,

0:20:26.713,0:20:28.514
check out the links [br]in the description.

0:20:28.514,0:20:30.347
♪ [music] ♪