WEBVTT

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So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

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that you're a soldier
in the heat of battle.

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Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier,
or a medieval archer,

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or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

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Regardless of your time and place,
there's some things that are constant.

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Your adrenaline is elevated,

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and your actions are stemming
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

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reflexes rooted in a need
to protect yourself and your side

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and to defeat the enemy.

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So now, I'd like you to imagine
playing a very different role,

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that of the scout.

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So the scout's job is not
to attack or defend.

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The scout's job is to understand.

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The scout is the one going out,

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mapping the terrain,
identifying potential obstacles,

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and the scout may hope to learn
that, say, there's a bridge

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in a convenient location across a river.

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But above all, the scout wants to know
what's really there

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as accurately as possible.

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And in a real, actual army, both
the soldier and the scout are essential.

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But you can also think of each
of these roles as a mindset,

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a metaphor for how all of us
process information and ideas

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in our daily lives.

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And what I'm going to argue today
is that having good judgment,

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making accurate predictions,
making good decisions,

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is mostly about which mindset you're in.

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So to illustrate these mindsets in action,

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I'm going to take you back
to 19th century France

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where this innocuous-looking
piece of paper

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launched one of the biggest
political scandals in history.

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It was discovered in 1894
by officers in the French general staff,

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and it was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

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but when they pieced it back together,

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they discovered that someone
in their ranks

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had been selling
military secrets to Germany.

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So they launched a big investigation,

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and their suspicions
quickly converged on this man,

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Alfred Dreyfus.

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He had a sterling record,

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no past history of wrongdoing,
no motive as far as they could tell,

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but Dreyfus was the only
Jewish officer at that rank in the Army,

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and unfortunately at this time,
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

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So they compared Dreyfus's handwriting
to that on the memo

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and concluded that it was a match,

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even though outside
professional handwriting experts

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were much less confident
in the similarity, but never mind that.

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They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment
looking for any signs of espionage.

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They went through his files,

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and they didn't find anything.

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And this just convinced them more
that Dreyfus was not only guilty

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but sneaky as well, because clearly
he had hidden all of the evidence

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before they had managed to get to it.

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Next, they went and looked
through his personal history

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for any incriminating details.

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They talked to his teachers.

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They found that he had studied
foreign languages in school,

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which clearly showed a desire
to conspire with foreign governments

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later in life.

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His teachers also said that Dreyfus
was known for having a good memory,

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which was highly suspicious, right?

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Because a spy has to remember
a lot of things.

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So the case went to trial,
and Dreyfus was found guilty,

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and afterwards, they took him out
into this public square

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and ritualistically tore his insignia
from his uniform

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and broke his sword in two.

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This was called
the Degradation of Dreyfus.

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And they sentenced him
to life imprisonment

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on the aptly named Devil's Island,

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which is this barren rock
off the coast of South America.

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So there he went,
and there he spent his days alone,

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writing letters and letters
to the French government

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begging them to reopen his case
so they could discover his innocence.

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But for the most part,
France considered the matter closed.

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So one thing that's really interesting
to me about the Dreyfus Affair

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is this question of why the officers
were so convinced

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that Dreyfus was guilty.

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I mean, you might even assume
that they were setting him up,

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that they were intentionally framing him.

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But historians don't think
that's what happened.

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As far as we can tell,
the officers genuinely believed

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that the case against Dreyfus was strong,

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which makes you wonder,
what does it say about the human mind

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that we can find such paltry evidence

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to be compelling enough to convict a man?

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Well, this is a case of what scientists
call "motivated reasoning."

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It's this phenomenon in which
our unconscious motivations,

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our desires and fears,

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shape the way we interpret information.

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So some information, some ideas,
feel like our allies.

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We want them to win.
We want to defend them.

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And other information and ideas
are the enemy,

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and we want to shoot them down.

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So this is why I call motivated reasoning

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"soldier mindset."

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And probably most of you
have never persecuted

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a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

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I assume,

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but maybe you've followed sports,
or politics, so you might have noticed

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that when the referee judges
that your team committed a foul,

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for example,

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you're highly motivated
to find reasons why he's wrong.

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But if he judges that the other team
committed a foul,

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awesome, that's a good call,
let's not examine it too closely.

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Or maybe you've read an article
or a study that's examined

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some controversial policy,
like capital punishment,

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and as researchers have demonstrated,

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if you support capital punishment

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and the study shows
that it's not effective,

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then you're highly motivated
to find all the reasons

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why the study was poorly designed.

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But if it shows
that capital punishment works,

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awesome, it's a good study.

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And vice versa. If you don't
support capital punishment, same thing.

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Our judgment is just strongly influenced
unconsciously by which side

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we want to win.

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And this is ubiquitous.

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It shapes how we think about our health,
our relationships,

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how we decide how to vote,

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what we consider fair or ethical.

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And what's most scary to me

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about motivated reasoning,
or soldier mindset,

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is how unconscious it is.

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We can think we're being
objective and fair-minded,

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and still wind up ruining the life
of an innocent man.

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However, fortunately for Dreyfus,
his story is not over.

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This is Colonel Picquart.

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He's another high-ranking officer
in the French Army,

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and like most people,
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

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Also, like most people in the Army,
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

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But at a certain point,

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Picquart began to suspect,

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uh, what if we were all wrong
about Dreyfus.

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And what happened was he had discovered
evidence that the spying for Germany

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had continued even after
Dreyfus was in prison.

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And he had also discovered that
another officer in the Army

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had handwriting that perfectly
matched the memo,

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much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

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So he brought these discoveries
to his superiors,

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but to his dismay,

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they either didn't care

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or came up with elaborate rationalizations
to explain his findings,

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like, well, all you've really shown,
Picquart, is that there's another spy

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who learned how
to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

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and he picked up the torch of spying
after Dreyfus left,

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but Dreyfus is still guilty.

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Eventually, Picquart managed
to get Dreyfus exonerated,

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but it took him 10 years,

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and for part of that time,
he himself was in prison

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for the crime of disloyalty to the Army.

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So a lot of people feel like
Picquart can't really be the hero

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of this story

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because he was an anti-Semite,
and that's bad, which I agree with.

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But personally, for me,

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the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

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actually makes his actions more admirable,

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because he had the same prejudices,
the same reasons to be biased

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as his fellow officers,

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but his motivations to find the truth
and uphold it just trumped all of that.

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So to me,

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Picquart is a poster child
for what I call "scout mindset."

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It's the drive not to make one idea win
or another lose,

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but just to see what's really there

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as honestly and accurately as you can,

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even if it's not pretty
or convenient or pleasant.

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And this mindset is what I'm personally
passionate about,

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and what I've spent the last few years
examining and trying to figure out

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what causes scout mindset.

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Why are some people, sometimes at least,

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able to cut through their own
prejudices and biases and motivations

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and just try to see the facts
and the evidence

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as objectively as they can?

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And the answer is emotional.

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So just as soldier mindset
is rooted in emotions

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like defensiveness or tribalism,

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scout mindset is too.

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It's just rooted in different emotions.

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So for example, scouts are curious.

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They're more likely to say
that they feel pleasure

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when they learn new information

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or an itch to solve a puzzle.

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They're more likely to feel intrigued
when they encounter something

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that contradicts their expectations.

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Scouts also have different values.

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They're more likely to say that
they think it's virtuous

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to test your own beliefs,

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and they're less likely to say
that someone who changes his mind

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seems weak.

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And above all, scouts are grounded,

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which means that

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their self-worth as a person
isn't tied to how right or wrong

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they are about any particular topic.

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So they can believe
that capital punishment works,

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and if studies come out
showing that it doesn't,

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they can say, "Huh,
looks like I might be wrong.

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Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

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So these traits, this cluster of traits

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is what researchers have found,

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and I've also found anecdotally,
predicts good judgment.

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And the key takeaway I want
to leave you with about those traits

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is that they're primarily
not about how smart you are

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or about how much you know.

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In fact, they don't correlate
very much with IQ at all.

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They're about how you feel.

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So there's a quote that I keep
coming back to

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by Saint-Exupéry.

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He's the author of "The Little Prince."

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And he said, "If you want to build a ship,

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don't drum up your men

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to collect wood and give orders

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and distribute the work.

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Instead, teach them to yearn
for the vast and endless sea."

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In other words, I claim,

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if we really want to improve
our judgment as individuals

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and as societies,

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what we need most is not more instruction
in logic or rhetoric

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or probability or economics,

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even though those things
are quite valuable.

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But what we most need
to use those principles well

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is scout mindset.

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We need to change the way we feel.

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We need to learn how to feel proud
instead of ashamed

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when we notice we might
have been wrong about something.

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We need to learn how to feel intrigued
instead of defensive

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when we encounter some information
that contradicts our beliefs.

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So the question I want
to leave you with is,

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what do you most yearn for?

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Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

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Or do you yearn to see the world
as clearly as you possibly can?

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Thank you.

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(Applause)