0:00:00.828,0:00:03.694
So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

0:00:03.694,0:00:06.505
that you're a soldier[br]in the heat of battle.

0:00:06.505,0:00:10.443
Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier,[br]or a medieval archer,

0:00:10.443,0:00:12.434
or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

0:00:12.434,0:00:16.467
Regardless of your time and place,[br]there's some things that are constant.

0:00:16.467,0:00:18.586
Your adrenaline is elevated,

0:00:18.586,0:00:23.420
and your actions are stemming[br]from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

0:00:23.420,0:00:27.775
reflexes rooted in a need[br]to protect yourself and your side

0:00:27.775,0:00:30.523
and to defeat the enemy.

0:00:30.523,0:00:34.387
So now, I'd like you to imagine[br]playing a very different role,

0:00:34.387,0:00:36.122
that of the scout.

0:00:36.122,0:00:39.600
So the scout's job is not[br]to attack or defend.

0:00:39.600,0:00:42.345
The scout's job is to understand.

0:00:42.345,0:00:44.318
The scout is the one going out,

0:00:44.318,0:00:48.610
mapping the terrain,[br]identifying potential obstacles,

0:00:48.610,0:00:52.191
and the scout may hope to learn[br]that, say, there's a bridge

0:00:52.191,0:00:54.496
in a convenient location across a river.

0:00:54.496,0:00:57.620
But above all, the scout wants to know[br]what's really there

0:00:57.620,0:00:59.659
as accurately as possible.

0:00:59.659,0:01:05.265
And in a real, actual army, both[br]the soldier and the scout are essential.

0:01:05.265,0:01:10.874
But you can also think of each[br]of these roles as a mindset,

0:01:10.874,0:01:14.524
a metaphor for how all of us[br]process information and ideas

0:01:14.524,0:01:16.447
in our daily lives.

0:01:16.447,0:01:20.213
And what I'm going to argue today[br]is that having good judgment,

0:01:20.213,0:01:23.450
making accurate predictions,[br]making good decisions,

0:01:23.450,0:01:26.905
is mostly about which mindset you're in.

0:01:26.905,0:01:29.707
So to illustrate these mindsets in action,

0:01:29.707,0:01:33.367
I'm going to take you back[br]to 19th century France

0:01:33.367,0:01:36.063
where this innocuous-looking[br]piece of paper

0:01:36.063,0:01:40.028
launched one of the biggest[br]political scandals in history.

0:01:40.028,0:01:44.449
It was discovered in 1894[br]by officers in the French general staff,

0:01:44.449,0:01:47.540
and it was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

0:01:47.540,0:01:49.465
but when they pieced it back together,

0:01:49.465,0:01:51.520
they discovered that someone[br]in their ranks

0:01:51.520,0:01:54.118
had been selling[br]military secrets to Germany.

0:01:54.118,0:01:56.781
So they launched a big investigation,

0:01:56.781,0:02:00.810
and their suspicions[br]quickly converged on this man,

0:02:00.810,0:02:02.701
Alfred Dreyfus.

0:02:02.701,0:02:04.300
He had a sterling record,

0:02:04.300,0:02:07.847
no past history of wrongdoing,[br]no motive as far as they could tell,

0:02:07.847,0:02:13.339
but Dreyfus was the only[br]Jewish officer at that rank in the Army,

0:02:13.339,0:02:17.635
and unfortunately at this time,[br]the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

0:02:17.635,0:02:20.857
So they compared Dreyfus's handwriting[br]to that on the memo

0:02:20.857,0:02:23.062
and concluded that it was a match,

0:02:23.062,0:02:25.955
even though outside[br]professional handwriting experts

0:02:25.955,0:02:29.666
were much less confident[br]in the similarity, but never mind that.

0:02:29.666,0:02:33.449
They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment[br]looking for any signs of espionage.

0:02:33.449,0:02:35.160
They went through his files,

0:02:35.160,0:02:36.671
and they didn't find anything.

0:02:36.671,0:02:39.584
And this just convinced them more[br]that Dreyfus was not only guilty

0:02:39.584,0:02:42.673
but sneaky as well, because clearly[br]he had hidden all of the evidence

0:02:42.673,0:02:44.778
before they had managed to get to it.

0:02:44.778,0:02:48.197
Next, they went and looked[br]through his personal history

0:02:48.197,0:02:50.779
for any incriminating details.

0:02:50.779,0:02:51.880
They talked to his teachers.

0:02:51.880,0:02:54.610
They found that he had studied[br]foreign languages in school,

0:02:54.610,0:02:59.080
which clearly showed a desire[br]to conspire with foreign governments

0:02:59.080,0:03:00.544
later in life.

0:03:00.544,0:03:06.007
His teachers also said that Dreyfus[br]was known for having a good memory,

0:03:06.007,0:03:08.436
which was highly suspicious, right?

0:03:08.436,0:03:12.431
Because a spy has to remember[br]a lot of things.

0:03:12.431,0:03:16.115
So the case went to trial,[br]and Dreyfus was found guilty,

0:03:16.115,0:03:20.160
and afterwards, they took him out[br]into this public square

0:03:20.160,0:03:23.908
and ritualistically tore his insignia[br]from his uniform

0:03:23.908,0:03:26.037
and broke his sword in two.

0:03:26.037,0:03:28.710
This was called[br]the Degradation of Dreyfus.

0:03:28.710,0:03:31.554
And they sentenced him[br]to life imprisonment

0:03:31.554,0:03:34.447
on the aptly named Devil's Island,

0:03:34.447,0:03:37.556
which is this barren rock[br]off the coast of South America.

0:03:37.556,0:03:41.141
So there he went,[br]and there he spent his days alone,

0:03:41.141,0:03:44.050
writing letters and letters[br]to the French government

0:03:44.050,0:03:47.751
begging them to reopen his case[br]so they could discover his innocence.

0:03:47.751,0:03:51.499
But for the most part,[br]France considered the matter closed.

0:03:51.499,0:03:55.857
So one thing that's really interesting[br]to me about the Dreyfus Affair

0:03:55.857,0:03:59.556
is this question of why the officers[br]were so convinced

0:03:59.556,0:04:01.628
that Dreyfus was guilty.

0:04:01.628,0:04:04.356
I mean, you might even assume[br]that they were setting him up,

0:04:04.356,0:04:06.067
that they were intentionally framing him.

0:04:06.067,0:04:08.238
But historians don't think[br]that's what happened.

0:04:08.238,0:04:11.444
As far as we can tell,[br]the officers genuinely believed

0:04:11.444,0:04:13.598
that the case against Dreyfus was strong,

0:04:13.598,0:04:18.629
which makes you wonder,[br]what does it say about the human mind

0:04:18.629,0:04:20.964
that we can find such paltry evidence

0:04:20.964,0:04:24.105
to be compelling enough to convict a man?

0:04:24.105,0:04:28.757
Well, this is a case of what scientists[br]call "motivated reasoning."

0:04:28.757,0:04:31.850
It's this phenomenon in which[br]our unconscious motivations,

0:04:31.850,0:04:34.133
our desires and fears,

0:04:34.133,0:04:36.502
shape the way we interpret information.

0:04:36.502,0:04:40.006
So some information, some ideas,[br]feel like our allies.

0:04:40.006,0:04:42.735
We want them to win.[br]We want to defend them.

0:04:42.735,0:04:45.168
And other information and ideas[br]are the enemy,

0:04:45.168,0:04:47.026
and we want to shoot them down.

0:04:47.026,0:04:49.939
So this is why I call motivated reasoning

0:04:49.939,0:04:51.580
"soldier mindset."

0:04:51.580,0:04:55.017
And probably most of you[br]have never persecuted

0:04:55.017,0:04:57.401
a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

0:04:57.401,0:04:58.897
I assume,

0:04:58.897,0:05:03.994
but maybe you've followed sports,[br]or politics, so you might have noticed

0:05:03.994,0:05:08.040
that when the referee judges[br]that your team committed a foul,

0:05:08.040,0:05:09.204
for example,

0:05:09.204,0:05:12.480
you're highly motivated[br]to find reasons why he's wrong.

0:05:12.480,0:05:14.797
But if he judges that the other team[br]committed a foul,

0:05:14.797,0:05:18.037
awesome, that's a good call,[br]let's not examine it too closely.

0:05:18.037,0:05:22.149
Or maybe you've read an article[br]or a study that's examined

0:05:22.149,0:05:25.238
some controversial policy,[br]like capital punishment,

0:05:25.238,0:05:27.645
and as researchers have demonstrated,

0:05:27.645,0:05:29.773
if you support capital punishment

0:05:29.773,0:05:32.194
and the study shows[br]that it's not effective,

0:05:32.194,0:05:35.415
then you're highly motivated[br]to find all the reasons

0:05:35.415,0:05:37.850
why the study was poorly designed.

0:05:37.850,0:05:39.772
But if it shows[br]that capital punishment works,

0:05:39.772,0:05:41.025
awesome, it's a good study.

0:05:41.025,0:05:44.049
And vice versa. If you don't[br]support capital punishment, same thing.

0:05:44.049,0:05:48.242
Our judgment is just strongly influenced[br]unconsciously by which side

0:05:48.242,0:05:50.527
we want to win.

0:05:50.527,0:05:51.811
And this is ubiquitous.

0:05:51.811,0:05:55.046
It shapes how we think about our health,[br]our relationships,

0:05:55.046,0:05:57.021
how we decide how to vote,

0:05:57.021,0:05:59.358
what we consider fair or ethical.

0:05:59.358,0:06:01.692
And what's most scary to me

0:06:01.692,0:06:03.764
about motivated reasoning,[br]or soldier mindset,

0:06:03.764,0:06:05.507
is how unconscious it is.

0:06:05.507,0:06:08.680
We can think we're being[br]objective and fair-minded,

0:06:08.680,0:06:12.906
and still wind up ruining the life[br]of an innocent man.

0:06:12.906,0:06:15.915
However, fortunately for Dreyfus,[br]his story is not over.

0:06:15.915,0:06:17.740
This is Colonel Picquart.

0:06:17.740,0:06:20.042
He's another high-ranking officer[br]in the French Army,

0:06:20.042,0:06:22.424
and like most people,[br]he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

0:06:22.424,0:06:27.342
Also, like most people in the Army,[br]he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

0:06:27.342,0:06:29.102
But at a certain point,

0:06:29.102,0:06:30.976
Picquart began to suspect,

0:06:30.976,0:06:34.560
uh, what if we were all wrong[br]about Dreyfus.

0:06:34.560,0:06:37.915
And what happened was he had discovered[br]evidence that the spying for Germany

0:06:37.915,0:06:41.516
had continued even after[br]Dreyfus was in prison.

0:06:41.516,0:06:44.836
And he had also discovered that[br]another officer in the Army

0:06:44.836,0:06:47.764
had handwriting that perfectly[br]matched the memo,

0:06:47.764,0:06:50.297
much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

0:06:50.297,0:06:52.959
So he brought these discoveries[br]to his superiors,

0:06:52.959,0:06:55.473
but to his dismay,

0:06:55.473,0:06:57.579
they either didn't care

0:06:57.579,0:07:01.543
or came up with elaborate rationalizations[br]to explain his findings,

0:07:01.543,0:07:06.811
like, well, all you've really shown,[br]Picquart, is that there's another spy

0:07:06.811,0:07:09.205
who learned how[br]to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

0:07:09.205,0:07:13.299
and he picked up the torch of spying[br]after Dreyfus left,

0:07:13.299,0:07:15.389
but Dreyfus is still guilty.

0:07:15.389,0:07:19.056
Eventually, Picquart managed[br]to get Dreyfus exonerated,

0:07:19.056,0:07:20.684
but it took him 10 years,

0:07:20.684,0:07:22.783
and for part of that time,[br]he himself was in prison

0:07:22.783,0:07:26.221
for the crime of disloyalty to the Army.

0:07:26.221,0:07:31.386
So a lot of people feel like[br]Picquart can't really be the hero

0:07:31.386,0:07:32.716
of this story

0:07:32.716,0:07:37.216
because he was an anti-Semite,[br]and that's bad, which I agree with.

0:07:37.216,0:07:39.443
But personally, for me,

0:07:39.443,0:07:41.713
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

0:07:41.713,0:07:44.607
actually makes his actions more admirable,

0:07:44.607,0:07:47.813
because he had the same prejudices,[br]the same reasons to be biased

0:07:47.813,0:07:49.375
as his fellow officers,

0:07:49.375,0:07:54.652
but his motivations to find the truth[br]and uphold it just trumped all of that.

0:07:54.652,0:07:56.321
So to me,

0:07:56.321,0:08:00.369
Picquart is a poster child[br]for what I call "scout mindset."

0:08:00.369,0:08:04.570
It's the drive not to make one idea win[br]or another lose,

0:08:04.570,0:08:06.646
but just to see what's really there

0:08:06.646,0:08:09.633
as honestly and accurately as you can,

0:08:09.633,0:08:12.937
even if it's not pretty[br]or convenient or pleasant.

0:08:12.937,0:08:16.341
And this mindset is what I'm personally[br]passionate about,

0:08:16.341,0:08:22.227
and what I've spent the last few years[br]examining and trying to figure out

0:08:22.227,0:08:24.020
what causes scout mindset.

0:08:24.020,0:08:27.045
Why are some people, sometimes at least,

0:08:27.045,0:08:31.008
able to cut through their own[br]prejudices and biases and motivations

0:08:31.008,0:08:33.177
and just try to see the facts[br]and the evidence

0:08:33.177,0:08:34.919
as objectively as they can?

0:08:34.919,0:08:38.637
And the answer is emotional.

0:08:38.637,0:08:42.074
So just as soldier mindset[br]is rooted in emotions

0:08:42.074,0:08:45.922
like defensiveness or tribalism,

0:08:45.922,0:08:48.178
scout mindset is too.

0:08:48.178,0:08:50.131
It's just rooted in different emotions.

0:08:50.131,0:08:53.403
So for example, scouts are curious.

0:08:53.403,0:08:56.904
They're more likely to say[br]that they feel pleasure

0:08:56.904,0:08:58.829
when they learn new information

0:08:58.829,0:09:01.164
or an itch to solve a puzzle.

0:09:01.164,0:09:04.737
They're more likely to feel intrigued[br]when they encounter something

0:09:04.737,0:09:07.467
that contradicts their expectations.

0:09:07.467,0:09:09.457
Scouts also have different values.

0:09:09.457,0:09:12.303
They're more likely to say that[br]they think it's virtuous

0:09:12.303,0:09:14.027
to test your own beliefs,

0:09:14.027,0:09:17.626
and they're less likely to say[br]that someone who changes his mind

0:09:17.626,0:09:19.169
seems weak.

0:09:19.169,0:09:21.440
And above all, scouts are grounded,

0:09:21.440,0:09:23.070
which means that

0:09:23.070,0:09:27.722
their self-worth as a person[br]isn't tied to how right or wrong

0:09:27.722,0:09:30.322
they are about any particular topic.

0:09:30.322,0:09:33.117
So they can believe[br]that capital punishment works,

0:09:33.117,0:09:35.535
and if studies come out[br]showing that it doesn't,

0:09:35.535,0:09:37.984
they can say, "Huh,[br]looks like I might be wrong.

0:09:37.984,0:09:40.467
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

0:09:40.467,0:09:44.266
So these traits, this cluster of traits

0:09:44.266,0:09:46.188
is what researchers have found,

0:09:46.188,0:09:50.283
and I've also found anecdotally,[br]predicts good judgment.

0:09:50.283,0:09:53.950
And the key takeaway I want[br]to leave you with about those traits

0:09:53.950,0:09:57.354
is that they're primarily[br]not about how smart you are

0:09:57.354,0:09:59.489
or about how much you know.

0:09:59.489,0:10:02.187
In fact, they don't correlate[br]very much with IQ at all.

0:10:02.187,0:10:05.081
They're about how you feel.

0:10:05.081,0:10:07.401
So there's a quote that I keep[br]coming back to

0:10:07.401,0:10:08.929
by Saint-Exupéry.

0:10:08.929,0:10:11.100
He's the author of "The Little Prince."

0:10:11.100,0:10:14.075
And he said, "If you want to build a ship,

0:10:14.075,0:10:15.767
don't drum up your men

0:10:15.767,0:10:19.157
to collect wood and give orders

0:10:19.157,0:10:20.669
and distribute the work.

0:10:20.669,0:10:26.507
Instead, teach them to yearn[br]for the vast and endless sea."

0:10:26.507,0:10:28.496
In other words, I claim,

0:10:28.496,0:10:32.048
if we really want to improve[br]our judgment as individuals

0:10:32.048,0:10:33.578
and as societies,

0:10:33.578,0:10:38.575
what we need most is not more instruction[br]in logic or rhetoric

0:10:38.575,0:10:40.878
or probability or economics,

0:10:40.878,0:10:42.818
even though those things[br]are quite valuable.

0:10:42.818,0:10:46.041
But what we most need[br]to use those principles well

0:10:46.041,0:10:47.637
is scout mindset.

0:10:47.637,0:10:49.609
We need to change the way we feel.

0:10:49.609,0:10:53.529
We need to learn how to feel proud[br]instead of ashamed

0:10:53.529,0:10:56.094
when we notice we might[br]have been wrong about something.

0:10:56.094,0:10:59.628
We need to learn how to feel intrigued[br]instead of defensive

0:10:59.628,0:11:04.611
when we encounter some information[br]that contradicts our beliefs.

0:11:04.611,0:11:07.439
So the question I want[br]to leave you with is,

0:11:07.439,0:11:10.481
what do you most yearn for?

0:11:10.481,0:11:13.787
Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

0:11:13.787,0:11:18.471
Or do you yearn to see the world[br]as clearly as you possibly can?

0:11:18.471,0:11:20.265
Thank you.

0:11:20.265,0:11:24.518
(Applause)