[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.95,0:00:02.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm a meteorologist by degree,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.74,0:00:05.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have a bachelor's,\Nmaster's and PhD in physical meteorology,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.90,0:00:08.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I'm a meteorologist, card carrying.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.44,0:00:13.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so with that comes\Nfour questions, always.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.17,0:00:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is one prediction\NI will always get right.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.75,0:00:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.63,0:00:19.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And those questions are,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.70,0:00:22.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Marshall, what channel are you on?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.21,0:00:24.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.05,0:00:26.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Doctor Shepherd, what's the weather\Ngoing to be tomorrow?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.91,0:00:27.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.94,0:00:29.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And oh, I love this one:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.55,0:00:32.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"My daughter is getting married\Nnext September, it's an outdoor wedding.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.02,0:00:34.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is it going to rain?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.25,0:00:35.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.66,0:00:38.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not kidding, I get those,\Nand I don't know the answer to that,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.59,0:00:40.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the science isn't there.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.18,0:00:44.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the one I get a lot these days is,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.11,0:00:48.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Doctor Shepherd, do you believe\Nin climate change?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.33,0:00:52.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do you believe in global warming?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.81,0:00:56.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I have to gather myself\Nevery time I get that question.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.53,0:00:58.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because it's an ill-posed question --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.32,0:01:00.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,science isn't a belief system.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.91,0:01:04.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My son, he's 10 --\Nhe believes in the tooth fairy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.100,0:01:08.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he needs to get over that,\Nbecause I'm losing dollars, fast.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.41,0:01:10.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.75,0:01:12.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But he believes in the tooth fairy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.60,0:01:14.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But consider this.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.36,0:01:17.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bank of America building,\Nthere, in Atlanta.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.93,0:01:20.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You never hear anyone say,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.51,0:01:23.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do you believe, if you go\Nto the top of that building
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.12,0:01:25.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and throw a ball off, it's going to fall?"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.81,0:01:29.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You never hear that,\Nbecause gravity is a thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.43,0:01:32.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So why don't we hear the question,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.74,0:01:34.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do you believe in gravity?"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.56,0:01:36.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But of course, we hear the question,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.45,0:01:38.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do you believe in global warming?"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.16,0:01:42.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, consider these facts.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.80,0:01:46.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The American Association\Nfor the Advancement of Science, AAAS,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.92,0:01:49.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of the leading\Norganizations in science,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.79,0:01:53.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,queried scientists and the public\Non different science topics.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.74,0:01:54.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here are some of them:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.96,0:01:58.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,genetically modified food,\Nanimal research, human evolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.71,0:02:02.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And look at what the scientists\Nsay about those,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.23,0:02:04.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the people that actually\Nstudy those topics, in red,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.97,0:02:07.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,versus the gray, what the public thinks.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.62,0:02:09.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How did we get there?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.98,0:02:11.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How did we get there?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.74,0:02:16.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That scientists and the public\Nare so far apart on these science issues.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.26,0:02:19.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I'll come a little bit\Ncloser to home for me,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.68,0:02:20.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,climate change.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.34,0:02:24.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eighty-seven percent of scientists
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.26,0:02:28.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,believe that humans are contributing\Nto climate change.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.45,0:02:31.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But only 50 percent of the public?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.32,0:02:34.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How did we get there?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.73,0:02:36.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it begs the question,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.06,0:02:40.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what shapes perceptions about science?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.66,0:02:44.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an interesting question,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.07,0:02:46.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and one that I've been\Nthinking about quite a bit.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.43,0:02:53.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think that one thing that shapes\Nperceptions in the public, about science,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.12,0:02:55.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is belief systems and biases.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.34,0:02:57.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Belief systems and biases.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.80,0:02:59.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Go with me for a moment.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.00,0:03:02.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I want to talk\Nabout three elements of that:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.48,0:03:06.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,confirmation bias, Dunning-Kruger effect
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.18,0:03:08.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and cognitive dissonance.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.07,0:03:12.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, these sound like big, fancy,\Nacademic terms, and they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.58,0:03:16.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when I describe them,\Nyou're going to be like, "Oh!
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.24,0:03:19.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I recognize that, I even know\Nsomebody that does that."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.36,0:03:22.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Confirmation bias.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.26,0:03:28.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Finding evidence that supports\Nwhat we already believe.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.76,0:03:31.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, we're probably all\Na little bit guilty of that at times.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.43,0:03:34.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take a look at this.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.99,0:03:36.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm on Twitter.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.33,0:03:38.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And often, when it snows,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.76,0:03:40.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'll get this tweet back to me.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.67,0:03:43.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.17,0:03:46.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Hey, Doctor Shepherd, I have 20 inches\Nof Global Warming in my yard,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.92,0:03:49.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what are you guys\Ntalking about, climate change?"
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.93,0:03:51.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I get that tweet a lot, actually.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.91,0:03:55.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a cute tweet,\Nit makes me chuckle as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.87,0:03:59.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's oh, so fundamentally\Nscientifically flawed.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.29,0:04:01.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because it illustrates
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.87,0:04:03.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the person tweeting\Ndoesn't understand
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.92,0:04:06.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the difference\Nbetween weather and climate.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.47,0:04:11.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I often say, weather is your mood
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.04,0:04:13.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and climate is your personality.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.98,0:04:16.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Think about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.16,0:04:18.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Weather is your mood,\Nclimate is your personality.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.62,0:04:22.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Your mood today doesn't necessarily\Ntell me anything about your personality.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.63,0:04:25.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nor does a cold day tell me anything\Nabout climate change,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.43,0:04:27.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or a hot day, for that matter.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.97,0:04:31.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Dunning-Kruger.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.62,0:04:34.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two scholars from Cornell\Ncame up with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.70,0:04:37.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you go look up\Nthe peer-reviewed paper for this,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.10,0:04:39.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you will see all kinds\Nof fancy terminology:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.59,0:04:43.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's an illusory superiority complex,\Nthinking we know things.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.26,0:04:46.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other words, people think\Nthey know more than they do.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.55,0:04:50.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or they underestimate\Nwhat they don't know.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.85,0:04:53.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, there's cognitive dissonance.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.83,0:04:57.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Cognitive dissonance is interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.54,0:05:00.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We just recently had Groundhog Day, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.13,0:05:03.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, there's no better definition\Nof cognitive dissonance
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.88,0:05:07.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than intelligent people asking me\Nif a rodent's forecast is accurate.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.42,0:05:10.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.17,0:05:12.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I get that, all of the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.74,0:05:13.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.02,0:05:17.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I also hear\Nabout the Farmer's Almanac.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.65,0:05:20.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We grew up on the Farmer's Almanac,\Npeople are familiar with it.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.26,0:05:25.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The problem is, it's only\Nabout 37 percent accurate,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.70,0:05:28.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,according to studies\Nat Penn State University.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.46,0:05:35.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we're in an era of science
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.05,0:05:37.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we actually\Ncan forecast the weather.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.14,0:05:40.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And believe it or not, and I know\Nsome of you are like, "Yeah, right,"
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.59,0:05:43.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're about 90 percent accurate, or more,\Nwith weather forecast.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.63,0:05:46.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You just tend to remember\Nthe occasional miss, you do.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.28,0:05:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.26,0:05:53.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So confirmation bias,\NDunning-Kruger and cognitive dissonance.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.69,0:05:59.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think those shape biases and perceptions\Nthat people have about science.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.62,0:06:01.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then, there's literacy\Nand misinformation
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.80,0:06:03.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that keep us boxed in, as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.91,0:06:08.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,During the hurricane season of 2017,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.42,0:06:12.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,media outlets had to actually\Nassign reporters
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.66,0:06:16.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to dismiss fake information\Nabout the weather forecast.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.20,0:06:20.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the era that we're in.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.64,0:06:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I deal with this all the time\Nin social media.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.10,0:06:24.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Someone will tweet a forecast --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.72,0:06:27.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's a forecast for Hurricane Irma,\Nbut here's the problem:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.68,0:06:29.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it didn't come from the Hurricane Center.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.61,0:06:33.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But people were tweeting\Nand sharing this; it went viral.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.42,0:06:36.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It didn't come from\Nthe National Hurricane Center at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.36,0:06:40.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I spent 12 years of my career at NASA
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.87,0:06:42.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before coming\Nto the University of Georgia,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.93,0:06:45.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I chair their Earth Science\NAdvisory Committee,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.47,0:06:47.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was just up there last week in DC.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.31,0:06:49.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I saw some really interesting things.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.32,0:06:52.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's a NASA model\Nand science data from satellite
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.58,0:06:54.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,showing the 2017 hurricane season.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.89,0:06:56.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see Hurricane Harvey there?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.65,0:07:00.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Look at all the dust coming off of Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.62,0:07:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Look at the wildfires up in northwest US\Nand in western Canada.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.63,0:07:07.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There comes Hurricane Irma.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.92,0:07:11.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is fascinating to me.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.69,0:07:13.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But admittedly, I'm a weather geek.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.98,0:07:18.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But more importantly, it illustrates\Nthat we have the technology
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.48,0:07:21.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to not only observe the weather\Nand climate system,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.08,0:07:22.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but predict it.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.62,0:07:24.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's scientific understanding,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.41,0:07:27.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so there's no need for some\Nof those perceptions and biases
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.52,0:07:29.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we've been talking about.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.12,0:07:30.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have knowledge.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.34,0:07:31.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But think about this ...
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.60,0:07:34.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is Houston, Texas,\Nafter Hurricane Harvey.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.74,0:07:38.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I write a contribution\Nfor "Forbes" magazine periodically
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.69,0:07:43.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I wrote an article a week before\NHurricane Harvey made landfall, saying,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.29,0:07:46.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"There's probably going to be\N40 to 50 inches of rainfall."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.78,0:07:49.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I wrote that a week before it happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.28,0:07:51.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But yet, when you talk\Nto people in Houston,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.43,0:07:54.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people are saying, "We had no idea\Nit was going to be this bad."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.09,0:07:56.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm just...
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.29,0:07:57.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Sigh)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.50,0:07:58.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.66,0:07:59.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A week before.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.86,0:08:01.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.07,0:08:03.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I know, it's amusing, but the reality is,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.59,0:08:09.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we all struggle with perceiving something\Noutside of our experience level.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.76,0:08:12.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People in Houston\Nget rain all of the time,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.05,0:08:13.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they flood all of the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.51,0:08:16.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they've never experienced that.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.56,0:08:21.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Houston gets about 34 inches of rainfall\Nfor the entire year.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.97,0:08:24.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They got 50 inches in three days.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.30,0:08:28.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's an anomaly event,\Nthat's outside of the normal.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.19,0:08:33.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So belief systems and biases,\Nliteracy and misinformation.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.05,0:08:36.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How do we step out of the boxes\Nthat are cornering our perceptions?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.63,0:08:42.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well we don't even have to go to Houston,\Nwe can come very close to home.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.39,0:08:43.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.60,0:08:45.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Remember "Snowpocalypse?"
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.53,0:08:47.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.36,0:08:48.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Snowmageddon?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.88,0:08:50.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Snowzilla?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.06,0:08:52.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whatever you want to call it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.11,0:08:54.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All two inches of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.45,0:08:57.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.08,0:08:59.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two inches of snow\Nshut the city of Atlanta down.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.97,0:09:01.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.98,0:09:07.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the reality is,\Nwe were in a winter storm watch,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.26,0:09:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we went to a winter weather advisory,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.92,0:09:12.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a lot of people perceived that\Nas being a downgrade,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.59,0:09:14.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh, it's not going to be as bad."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.28,0:09:17.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When in fact, the perception\Nwas that it was not going to be as bad,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.54,0:09:19.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it was actually an upgrade.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.20,0:09:21.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Things were getting worse\Nas the models were coming in.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.81,0:09:25.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's an example of how we get\Nboxed in by our perceptions.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.16,0:09:28.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, the question becomes,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.16,0:09:31.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do we expand our radius?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.82,0:09:35.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The area of a circle is "pi r squared".
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.76,0:09:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We increase the radius,\Nwe increase the area.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.02,0:09:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How do we expand our radius\Nof understanding about science?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.59,0:09:43.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here are my thoughts.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.72,0:09:47.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You take inventory of your own biases.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.82,0:09:49.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm challenging you all to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.86,0:09:52.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take an inventory of your own biases.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.90,0:09:54.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Where do they come from?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.21,0:09:57.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Your upbringing, your political\Nperspective, your faith --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.61,0:10:00.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what shapes your own biases?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.98,0:10:03.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, evaluate your sources --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.44,0:10:05.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where do you get\Nyour information on science?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.55,0:10:08.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do you read, what do you listen to,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.55,0:10:10.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to consume your information on science?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.02,0:10:13.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, it's important to speak out.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.79,0:10:17.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Talk about how you evaluated your biases\Nand evaluated your sources.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.93,0:10:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want you to listen to this\Nlittle 40-second clip
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.73,0:10:25.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from one of the top\NTV meteorologists in the US, Greg Fishel,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.53,0:10:27.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the Raleigh, Durham area.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.08,0:10:28.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He's revered in that region.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.78,0:10:30.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But he was a climate skeptic.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.20,0:10:32.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But listen to what he says\Nabout speaking out.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.47,0:10:34.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Greg Fishel:\NThe mistake I was making
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.23,0:10:36.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and didn't realize until very recently,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.20,0:10:38.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that I was only looking\Nfor information
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.82,0:10:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to support what I already thought,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.71,0:10:45.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and was not interested\Nin listening to anything contrary.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.56,0:10:48.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so I woke up one morning,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.65,0:10:52.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there was this question in my mind,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.92,0:10:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Greg, are you engaging\Nin confirmation bias?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.55,0:10:59.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are you only looking for information\Nto support what you already think?"
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.07,0:11:02.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if I was honest with myself,\Nand I try to be,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.46,0:11:04.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I admitted that was going on.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.27,0:11:07.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so the more I talked to scientists,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.81,0:11:09.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and read peer-reviewed literature
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.89,0:11:14.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and tried to conduct myself the way\NI've been taught to conduct myself
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.62,0:11:16.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at Penn State when I was a student,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.66,0:11:20.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it became very difficult for me\Nto make the argument
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.38,0:11:22.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we weren't at least\Nhaving some effect.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.46,0:11:24.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe there was still a doubt\Nas to how much,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.92,0:11:29.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but to say "nothing" was not\Na responsible thing for me to do
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.66,0:11:31.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a scientist or a person.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.39,0:11:37.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Greg Fishel just talked\Nabout expanding his radius
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.27,0:11:38.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of understanding of science.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.92,0:11:40.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when we expand our radius,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.100,0:11:44.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not about making a better future,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.22,0:11:47.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's about preserving\Nlife as we know it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:48.18,0:11:53.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So as we think about expanding\Nour own radius in understanding science,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.29,0:11:57.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's critical for Athens, Georgia,\Nfor Atlanta, Georgia,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.69,0:12:00.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the state of Georgia,\Nand for the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.86,0:12:02.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So expand your radius.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.95,0:12:04.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.16,0:12:08.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)