WEBVTT 00:00:00.917 --> 00:00:01.792 I'm going to talk to you about optimism -- 00:00:01.792 --> 00:00:05.321 or more precisely, the optimism bias. 00:00:05.321 --> 00:00:06.750 It's a cognitive illusion 00:00:06.750 --> 00:00:10.000 that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years, 00:00:10.000 --> 00:00:11.750 and 80 percent of us have it. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:11.750 --> 00:00:13.100 It's our tendency to overestimate 00:00:13.100 --> 00:00:17.792 our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives 00:00:17.792 --> 00:00:19.792 and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events. 00:00:19.792 --> 00:00:24.917 So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer, 00:00:24.917 --> 00:00:25.792 being in a car accident. 00:00:25.792 --> 00:00:28.917 We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects. 00:00:28.917 --> 00:00:32.500 In short, we're more optimistic than realistic, 00:00:32.500 --> 00:00:34.708 but we are oblivious to the fact. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:34.708 --> 00:00:36.458 Take marriage for example. 00:00:36.458 --> 00:00:40.500 In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent. 00:00:40.500 --> 00:00:44.000 That means that out of five married couples, 00:00:44.000 --> 00:00:47.167 two will end up splitting their assets. 00:00:47.167 --> 00:00:50.542 But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce, 00:00:50.542 --> 00:00:53.542 they estimate it at zero percent. 00:00:53.542 --> 00:00:56.625 And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better, 00:00:56.625 --> 00:01:00.750 hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce. 00:01:00.750 --> 00:01:04.000 So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce, 00:01:04.000 --> 00:01:07.083 but they are more likely to remarry. 00:01:07.083 --> 00:01:08.833 In the words of Samuel Johnson, 00:01:08.833 --> 00:01:13.583 "Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience." NOTE Paragraph 00:01:13.583 --> 00:01:14.792 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:01:14.792 --> 00:01:19.750 So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids. 00:01:19.750 --> 00:01:23.000 And we all think our kids will be especially talented. 00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:26.167 This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy. 00:01:26.167 --> 00:01:28.542 And I just want to make it absolutely clear 00:01:28.542 --> 00:01:30.667 that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias, 00:01:30.667 --> 00:01:34.125 because he is in fact uniquely talented. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:34.125 --> 00:01:35.083 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:01:35.083 --> 00:01:37.167 And I'm not alone. 00:01:37.167 --> 00:01:38.042 Out of four British people, three said 00:01:38.042 --> 00:01:42.750 that they were optimistic about the future of their own families. 00:01:42.750 --> 00:01:44.917 That's 75 percent. 00:01:44.917 --> 00:01:46.667 But only 30 percent said 00:01:46.667 --> 00:01:49.750 that they thought families in general 00:01:49.750 --> 00:01:51.500 are doing better than a few generations ago. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:51.500 --> 00:01:53.583 And this is a really important point, 00:01:53.583 --> 00:01:55.333 because we're optimistic about ourselves, 00:01:55.333 --> 00:01:57.412 we're optimistic about our kids, 00:01:57.412 --> 00:02:00.216 we're optimistic about our families, 00:02:00.216 --> 00:02:02.783 but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us, 00:02:02.783 --> 00:02:04.458 and we're somewhat pessimistic 00:02:04.458 --> 00:02:08.583 about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country. 00:02:08.583 --> 00:02:12.542 But private optimism about our own personal future 00:02:12.542 --> 00:02:14.292 remains persistent. 00:02:14.292 --> 00:02:18.250 And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay, 00:02:18.250 --> 00:02:22.375 but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:22.375 --> 00:02:25.292 Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments. 00:02:25.292 --> 00:02:26.167 So to show you what I mean, 00:02:26.167 --> 00:02:29.625 I'm going to do an experiment here with you. 00:02:29.625 --> 00:02:33.875 So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics, 00:02:33.875 --> 00:02:37.292 and I want you to think for each of these abilities 00:02:37.292 --> 00:02:40.500 where you stand relative to the rest of the population. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:40.500 --> 00:02:44.917 The first one is getting along well with others. 00:02:44.917 --> 00:02:48.708 Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent? 00:02:48.708 --> 00:02:52.583 Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500. 00:02:52.583 --> 00:02:58.458 Who believes they're at the top 25 percent? 00:02:58.458 --> 00:03:01.583 That's most of us here. 00:03:01.583 --> 00:03:05.375 Okay, now do the same for your driving ability. 00:03:05.375 --> 00:03:08.958 How interesting are you? 00:03:08.958 --> 00:03:10.971 How attractive are you? 00:03:10.971 --> 00:03:14.833 How honest are you? 00:03:14.833 --> 00:03:18.417 And finally, how modest are you? NOTE Paragraph 00:03:18.417 --> 00:03:23.167 So most of us put ourselves above average 00:03:23.167 --> 00:03:24.042 on most of these abilities. 00:03:24.042 --> 00:03:27.327 Now this is statistically impossible. 00:03:27.327 --> 00:03:29.248 We can't all be better than everyone else. 00:03:29.248 --> 00:03:31.583 (Laughter) 00:03:31.583 --> 00:03:34.875 But if we believe we're better than the other guy, 00:03:34.875 --> 00:03:38.958 well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married. 00:03:38.958 --> 00:03:39.833 Because we're more social, more interesting. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:39.833 --> 00:03:43.042 And it's a global phenomenon. 00:03:43.042 --> 00:03:44.833 The optimism bias has been observed 00:03:44.833 --> 00:03:47.429 in many different countries -- 00:03:47.429 --> 00:03:50.333 in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures, 00:03:50.333 --> 00:03:51.546 in females and males, 00:03:51.546 --> 00:03:54.240 in kids, in the elderly. 00:03:54.240 --> 00:03:56.023 It's quite widespread. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:56.023 --> 00:03:58.015 But the question is, Is it good for us? 00:03:58.015 --> 00:04:01.208 So some people say no. 00:04:01.208 --> 00:04:03.833 Some people say the secret to happiness 00:04:03.833 --> 00:04:06.833 is low expectations. 00:04:06.833 --> 00:04:09.137 I think the logic goes something like this: 00:04:09.137 --> 00:04:11.918 If we don't expect greatness, 00:04:11.918 --> 00:04:15.167 if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful, 00:04:15.167 --> 00:04:18.250 well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen. 00:04:18.250 --> 00:04:21.750 And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen, 00:04:21.750 --> 00:04:23.375 and we're pleasantly surprised when they do, 00:04:23.375 --> 00:04:25.125 we will be happy. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:25.125 --> 00:04:27.858 So it's a very good theory, 00:04:27.858 --> 00:04:30.208 but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons. 00:04:30.208 --> 00:04:35.500 Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail, 00:04:35.500 --> 00:04:38.865 people with high expectations always feel better. 00:04:38.865 --> 00:04:42.875 Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month 00:04:42.875 --> 00:04:45.458 depends on how we interpret that event. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:45.458 --> 00:04:49.708 The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown 00:04:49.708 --> 00:04:52.333 studied students with high and low expectations. 00:04:52.333 --> 00:04:55.625 And they found that when people with high expectations succeed, 00:04:55.625 --> 00:04:59.750 they attribute that success to their own traits. 00:04:59.750 --> 00:05:01.500 "I'm a genius, therefore I got an A, 00:05:01.500 --> 00:05:04.667 therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future." 00:05:04.667 --> 00:05:07.625 When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb, 00:05:07.625 --> 00:05:10.875 but because the exam just happened to be unfair. 00:05:10.875 --> 00:05:12.958 Next time they will do better. 00:05:12.958 --> 00:05:16.250 People with low expectations do the opposite. 00:05:16.250 --> 00:05:19.667 So when they failed it was because they were dumb, 00:05:19.667 --> 00:05:21.167 and when they succeeded 00:05:21.167 --> 00:05:23.792 it was because the exam just happened to be really easy. 00:05:23.792 --> 00:05:26.500 Next time reality would catch up with them. 00:05:26.500 --> 00:05:28.958 So they felt worse. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:28.958 --> 00:05:31.583 Number two: Regardless of the outcome, 00:05:31.583 --> 00:05:35.583 the pure act of anticipation makes us happy. 00:05:35.583 --> 00:05:38.667 The behavioral economist George Lowenstein 00:05:38.667 --> 00:05:40.417 asked students in his university 00:05:40.417 --> 00:05:43.625 to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity. 00:05:43.625 --> 00:05:47.125 Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay 00:05:47.125 --> 00:05:50.375 to get a kiss from a celebrity 00:05:50.375 --> 00:05:52.125 if the kiss was delivered immediately, 00:05:52.125 --> 00:05:57.625 in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days, 00:05:57.625 --> 00:05:59.458 in one year, in 10 years? 00:05:59.458 --> 00:06:01.542 He found that the students were willing to pay the most 00:06:01.542 --> 00:06:04.833 not to get a kiss immediately, 00:06:04.833 --> 00:06:08.167 but to get a kiss in three days. 00:06:08.167 --> 00:06:10.583 They were willing to pay extra in order to wait. 00:06:10.583 --> 00:06:14.417 Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years; 00:06:14.417 --> 00:06:16.500 no one wants an aging celebrity. 00:06:16.500 --> 00:06:21.042 But three days seemed to be the optimum amount. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:21.042 --> 00:06:22.792 So why is that? 00:06:22.792 --> 00:06:26.708 Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with. 00:06:26.708 --> 00:06:28.458 But if you get the kiss in three days, 00:06:28.458 --> 00:06:33.458 well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait. 00:06:33.458 --> 00:06:34.958 The students wanted that time 00:06:34.958 --> 00:06:37.708 to imagine where is it going to happen, 00:06:37.708 --> 00:06:38.583 how is it going to happen. 00:06:38.583 --> 00:06:40.333 Anticipation made them happy. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:40.333 --> 00:06:45.417 This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday. 00:06:45.417 --> 00:06:47.500 It's a really curious fact, 00:06:47.500 --> 00:06:50.917 because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure, 00:06:50.917 --> 00:06:53.083 so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday, 00:06:53.083 --> 00:06:55.542 but they don't. 00:06:55.542 --> 00:06:58.417 It's not because they really, really like being in the office 00:06:58.417 --> 00:06:59.646 and they can't stand strolling in the park 00:06:59.646 --> 00:07:01.583 or having a lazy brunch. 00:07:01.583 --> 00:07:03.643 We know that, because when you ask people 00:07:03.643 --> 00:07:06.162 about their ultimate favorite day of the week, 00:07:06.162 --> 00:07:08.567 surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first, 00:07:08.567 --> 00:07:12.333 then Friday, then Sunday. 00:07:12.333 --> 00:07:13.417 People prefer Friday 00:07:13.417 --> 00:07:18.458 because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead, 00:07:18.458 --> 00:07:20.375 all the plans that you have. 00:07:20.375 --> 00:07:22.125 On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to 00:07:22.125 --> 00:07:23.000 is the work week. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:23.000 --> 00:07:29.625 So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future, 00:07:29.625 --> 00:07:31.331 more strolls in the park. 00:07:31.331 --> 00:07:35.500 And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing. 00:07:35.500 --> 00:07:38.125 In fact, without the optimism bias, 00:07:38.125 --> 00:07:40.875 we would all be slightly depressed. 00:07:40.875 --> 00:07:43.250 People with mild depression, 00:07:43.250 --> 00:07:45.875 they don't have a bias when they look into the future. 00:07:45.875 --> 00:07:49.958 They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals. 00:07:49.958 --> 00:07:53.167 But individuals with severe depression, 00:07:53.167 --> 00:07:54.042 they have a pessimistic bias. 00:07:54.042 --> 00:07:57.213 So they tend to expect the future 00:07:57.213 --> 00:07:59.413 to be worse than it ends up being. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:59.413 --> 00:08:03.333 So optimism changes subjective reality. 00:08:03.333 --> 00:08:07.083 The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it. 00:08:07.083 --> 00:08:08.833 But it also changes objective reality. 00:08:08.833 --> 00:08:12.083 It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. 00:08:12.083 --> 00:08:15.458 And that is the third reason 00:08:15.458 --> 00:08:17.208 why lowering your expectations will not make you happy. 00:08:17.208 --> 00:08:19.750 Controlled experiments have shown 00:08:19.750 --> 00:08:22.667 that optimism is not only related to success, 00:08:22.667 --> 00:08:23.542 it leads to success. 00:08:23.542 --> 00:08:28.667 Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics. 00:08:28.667 --> 00:08:32.958 And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health. 00:08:32.958 --> 00:08:37.083 If we expect the future to be bright, 00:08:37.083 --> 00:08:39.500 stress and anxiety are reduced. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:39.500 --> 00:08:43.458 So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits. 00:08:43.458 --> 00:08:47.500 But the question that was really confusing to me was, 00:08:47.500 --> 00:08:51.000 How do we maintain optimism in the face of reality? 00:08:51.000 --> 00:08:54.833 As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing, 00:08:54.833 --> 00:08:58.083 because according to all the theories out there, 00:08:58.083 --> 00:09:02.625 when your expectations are not met, you should alter them. 00:09:02.625 --> 00:09:03.500 But this is not what we find. 00:09:03.500 --> 00:09:06.583 We asked people to come into our lab 00:09:06.583 --> 00:09:09.208 in order to try and figure out what was going on. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:09.208 --> 00:09:12.417 We asked them to estimate their likelihood 00:09:12.417 --> 00:09:14.167 of experiencing different terrible events in their lives. 00:09:14.167 --> 00:09:19.542 So for example, What is your likelihood of suffering from cancer? 00:09:19.542 --> 00:09:20.417 And then we told them the average likelihood 00:09:20.417 --> 00:09:24.875 of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes. 00:09:24.875 --> 00:09:26.625 So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent. 00:09:26.625 --> 00:09:31.375 And then we asked them again, 00:09:31.375 --> 00:09:33.665 How likely are you to suffer from cancer? NOTE Paragraph 00:09:33.665 --> 00:09:35.667 What we wanted to know 00:09:35.667 --> 00:09:39.167 was whether people will take the information that we gave them 00:09:39.167 --> 00:09:40.667 to change their beliefs. 00:09:40.667 --> 00:09:43.667 And indeed they did -- 00:09:43.667 --> 00:09:45.417 but mostly when the information we gave them 00:09:45.417 --> 00:09:48.417 was better than what they expected. 00:09:48.417 --> 00:09:49.292 So for example, 00:09:49.292 --> 00:09:52.458 if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer 00:09:52.458 --> 00:09:54.208 is about 50 percent," 00:09:54.208 --> 00:09:57.667 and we said, "Hey, good news. 00:09:57.667 --> 00:10:00.833 The average likelihood is only 30 percent," 00:10:00.833 --> 00:10:02.125 the next time around they would say, 00:10:02.125 --> 00:10:04.917 "Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent." 00:10:04.917 --> 00:10:07.292 So they learned quickly and efficiently. 00:10:07.292 --> 00:10:09.042 But if someone started off saying, 00:10:09.042 --> 00:10:12.583 "My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent," 00:10:12.583 --> 00:10:16.875 and we said, "Hey, bad news. 00:10:16.875 --> 00:10:19.333 The average likelihood is about 30 percent," 00:10:19.333 --> 00:10:21.083 the next time around they would say, 00:10:21.083 --> 00:10:25.125 "Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent." NOTE Paragraph 00:10:25.125 --> 00:10:26.000 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:28.042 So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did -- 00:10:28.042 --> 00:10:32.208 but much, much less than when we gave them 00:10:32.208 --> 00:10:33.958 positive information about the future. 00:10:33.958 --> 00:10:37.208 And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them; 00:10:37.208 --> 00:10:39.958 everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer 00:10:39.958 --> 00:10:40.833 is about 30 percent 00:10:40.833 --> 00:10:44.083 and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent. 00:10:44.083 --> 00:10:48.375 But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:48.375 --> 00:10:51.000 What this means is that warning signs such as these 00:10:51.000 --> 00:10:55.292 may only have limited impact. 00:10:55.292 --> 00:10:58.667 Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:58.667 --> 00:11:03.042 What I wanted to know 00:11:03.042 --> 00:11:05.333 was what was going on inside the human brain 00:11:05.333 --> 00:11:09.458 that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally. 00:11:09.458 --> 00:11:12.375 But at the same time, when we hear that the housing market is hopeful, 00:11:12.375 --> 00:11:16.500 we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price." 00:11:16.500 --> 00:11:19.000 To try and figure that out, 00:11:19.000 --> 00:11:20.750 I asked the participants in the experiment 00:11:20.750 --> 00:11:23.958 to lie in a brain imaging scanner. 00:11:23.958 --> 00:11:25.208 It looks like this. 00:11:25.208 --> 00:11:27.792 And using a method called functional MRI, 00:11:27.792 --> 00:11:31.583 we were able to identify regions in the brain 00:11:31.583 --> 00:11:35.000 that were responding to positive information. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:35.000 --> 00:11:37.625 One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus. 00:11:37.625 --> 00:11:41.875 So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent," 00:11:41.875 --> 00:11:44.500 and we said, "Hey, good news. 00:11:44.500 --> 00:11:45.375 Average likelihood is 30 percent," 00:11:45.375 --> 00:11:49.500 the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely. 00:11:49.500 --> 00:11:52.125 And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist 00:11:52.125 --> 00:11:54.438 or slightly pessimistic, 00:11:54.438 --> 00:11:59.500 everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus 00:11:59.500 --> 00:12:00.375 was functioning perfectly well, 00:12:00.375 --> 00:12:04.250 whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:04.250 --> 00:12:05.125 On the other side of the brain, 00:12:05.125 --> 00:12:09.542 the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news. 00:12:09.542 --> 00:12:14.083 And here's the thing: It wasn't doing a very good job. 00:12:14.083 --> 00:12:16.083 The more optimistic you were, 00:12:16.083 --> 00:12:16.958 the less likely this region was 00:12:16.958 --> 00:12:21.125 to respond to unexpected negative information. 00:12:21.125 --> 00:12:22.875 And if your brain is failing 00:12:22.875 --> 00:12:27.500 at integrating bad news about the future, 00:12:27.500 --> 00:12:32.000 you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:36.000 So we wanted to know, Could we change this? 00:12:36.000 --> 00:12:40.458 Could we alter people's optimism bias 00:12:40.458 --> 00:12:44.375 by interfering with the brain activity in these regions? 00:12:44.375 --> 00:12:47.000 And there's a way for us to do that. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:47.000 --> 00:12:48.750 This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai. 00:12:48.750 --> 00:12:54.167 And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse 00:12:54.167 --> 00:12:55.917 through the skull of the participant in our study 00:12:55.917 --> 00:12:58.208 into their inferior frontal gyrus. 00:12:58.208 --> 00:13:00.458 And by doing that, 00:13:00.458 --> 00:13:02.208 he's interfering with the activity of this brain region 00:13:02.208 --> 00:13:05.208 for about half an hour. 00:13:05.208 --> 00:13:06.083 After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:06.083 --> 00:13:07.833 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:13:07.833 --> 00:13:09.583 So let's see what happens. 00:13:09.583 --> 00:13:14.542 First of all, I'm going to show you 00:13:14.542 --> 00:13:16.292 the average amount of bias that we see. 00:13:16.292 --> 00:13:19.792 So if I was to test all of you now, 00:13:19.792 --> 00:13:22.125 this is the amount that you would learn 00:13:22.125 --> 00:13:23.875 more from good news relative to bad news. 00:13:23.875 --> 00:13:27.667 Now we interfere with the region 00:13:27.667 --> 00:13:31.042 that we found to integrate negative information in this task, 00:13:31.042 --> 00:13:34.083 and the optimism bias grew even larger. 00:13:34.083 --> 00:13:40.583 We made people more biased in the way that they process information. 00:13:40.583 --> 00:13:43.542 Then we interfered with the brain region 00:13:43.542 --> 00:13:47.583 that we found to integrate good news in this task, 00:13:47.583 --> 00:13:50.208 and the optimism bias disappeared. 00:13:50.208 --> 00:13:54.000 We were quite amazed by these results 00:13:54.000 --> 00:13:55.792 because we were able to eliminate 00:13:55.792 --> 00:13:57.542 a deep-rooted bias in humans. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:57.542 --> 00:14:02.500 And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves, 00:14:02.500 --> 00:14:08.125 Would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits? 00:14:08.125 --> 00:14:13.292 If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away? 00:14:13.292 --> 00:14:18.292 Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias, 00:14:18.292 --> 00:14:22.875 which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life. 00:14:22.875 --> 00:14:23.750 But there are, of course, pitfalls, 00:14:23.750 --> 00:14:27.833 and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:27.833 --> 00:14:31.333 Take for example this email I recieved 00:14:31.333 --> 00:14:33.750 from a firefighter here in California. 00:14:33.750 --> 00:14:37.208 He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters 00:14:37.208 --> 00:14:40.458 often include 'we didn't think the fire was going to do that,' 00:14:40.458 --> 00:14:43.083 even when all of the available information 00:14:43.083 --> 00:14:46.292 was there to make safe decisions." 00:14:46.292 --> 00:14:49.750 This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias 00:14:49.750 --> 00:14:50.625 to try to explain to the firefighters 00:14:50.625 --> 00:14:53.875 why they think the way they do, 00:14:53.875 --> 00:14:59.708 to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:59.708 --> 00:15:05.750 So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior, 00:15:05.750 --> 00:15:09.250 to financial collapse, to faulty planning. 00:15:09.250 --> 00:15:11.542 The British government, for example, 00:15:11.542 --> 00:15:15.708 has acknowledged that the optimism bias 00:15:15.708 --> 00:15:18.333 can make individuals more likely 00:15:18.333 --> 00:15:22.375 to underestimate the costs and durations of projects. 00:15:22.375 --> 00:15:25.875 So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget for the optimism bias. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:25.875 --> 00:15:31.573 My friend who's getting married in a few weeks 00:15:31.573 --> 00:15:34.007 has done the same for his wedding budget. 00:15:34.007 --> 00:15:35.792 And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce, 00:15:35.792 --> 00:15:39.875 he said he was quite sure it was zero percent. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:39.875 --> 00:15:42.292 So what we would really like to do, 00:15:42.292 --> 00:15:45.792 is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism, 00:15:45.792 --> 00:15:50.958 but at the same time remain hopeful, 00:15:50.958 --> 00:15:51.833 benefiting from the many fruits of optimism. 00:15:51.833 --> 00:15:56.083 And I believe there's a way for us to do that. 00:15:56.083 --> 00:15:56.958 The key here really is knowledge. 00:15:56.958 --> 00:16:00.208 We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases. 00:16:00.208 --> 00:16:02.833 These have to be identified by scientific investigation. 00:16:02.833 --> 00:16:07.833 But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias 00:16:07.833 --> 00:16:10.208 does not shatter the illusion. 00:16:10.208 --> 00:16:12.125 It's like visual illusions, 00:16:12.125 --> 00:16:16.292 in which understanding them does not make them go away. 00:16:16.292 --> 00:16:20.083 And this is good because it means we should be able to strike a balance, 00:16:20.083 --> 00:16:23.583 to come up with plans and rules 00:16:23.583 --> 00:16:25.596 to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism, 00:16:25.596 --> 00:16:28.625 but at the same time remain hopeful. NOTE Paragraph 00:16:28.625 --> 00:16:32.788 I think this cartoon portrays it nicely. 00:16:32.788 --> 00:16:36.083 Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there 00:16:36.083 --> 00:16:37.833 who just does not believe they can fly, 00:16:37.833 --> 00:16:40.792 you certainly never will. 00:16:40.792 --> 00:16:41.792 Because to make any kind of progress, 00:16:41.792 --> 00:16:45.788 we need to be able to imagine a different reality, 00:16:45.804 --> 00:16:48.704 and then we need to believe that that reality is possible. 00:16:48.729 --> 00:16:51.500 But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin 00:16:51.500 --> 00:16:55.000 who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best, 00:16:55.000 --> 00:16:58.458 you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground. 00:16:58.458 --> 00:17:00.208 But if you're an optimistic penguin 00:17:00.208 --> 00:17:05.958 who believes they can fly, but then adjusts a parachute to your back 00:17:05.958 --> 00:17:08.208 just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned, 00:17:08.208 --> 00:17:09.917 you will soar like an eagle, 00:17:09.917 --> 00:17:13.458 even if you're just a penguin. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:13.458 --> 00:17:14.333 Thank you. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:14.333 --> 00:17:17.833 (Applause)