0:00:00.917,0:00:01.792 I'm going to talk to you about optimism -- 0:00:01.792,0:00:05.321 or more precisely, the optimism bias. 0:00:05.321,0:00:06.750 It's a cognitive illusion 0:00:06.750,0:00:10.000 that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years, 0:00:10.000,0:00:11.750 and 80 percent of us have it. 0:00:11.750,0:00:13.100 It's our tendency to overestimate 0:00:13.100,0:00:17.792 our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives 0:00:17.792,0:00:19.792 and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events. 0:00:19.792,0:00:24.917 So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer, 0:00:24.917,0:00:25.792 being in a car accident. 0:00:25.792,0:00:28.917 We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects. 0:00:28.917,0:00:32.500 In short, we're more optimistic than realistic, 0:00:32.500,0:00:34.708 but we are oblivious to the fact. 0:00:34.708,0:00:36.458 Take marriage for example. 0:00:36.458,0:00:40.500 In the Western World, divorce rates are about 40 percent. 0:00:40.500,0:00:44.000 That means that out of five married couples, 0:00:44.000,0:00:47.167 two will end up splitting their assets. 0:00:47.167,0:00:50.542 But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce, 0:00:50.542,0:00:53.542 they estimate it at zero percent. 0:00:53.542,0:00:56.625 And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better, 0:00:56.625,0:01:00.750 hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce. 0:01:00.750,0:01:04.000 So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce, 0:01:04.000,0:01:07.083 but they are more likely to remarry. 0:01:07.083,0:01:08.833 In the words of Samuel Johnson, 0:01:08.833,0:01:13.583 "Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience." 0:01:13.583,0:01:14.792 (Laughter) 0:01:14.792,0:01:19.750 So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids. 0:01:19.750,0:01:23.000 And we all think our kids will be especially talented. 0:01:23.000,0:01:26.167 This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy. 0:01:26.167,0:01:28.542 And I just want to make it absolutely clear 0:01:28.542,0:01:30.667 that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias, 0:01:30.667,0:01:34.125 because he is in fact uniquely talented. 0:01:34.125,0:01:35.083 (Laughter) 0:01:35.083,0:01:37.167 And I'm not alone. 0:01:37.167,0:01:38.042 Out of four British people, three said 0:01:38.042,0:01:42.750 that they were optimistic about the future of their own families. 0:01:42.750,0:01:44.917 That's 75 percent. 0:01:44.917,0:01:46.667 But only 30 percent said 0:01:46.667,0:01:49.750 that they thought families in general 0:01:49.750,0:01:51.500 are doing better than a few generations ago. 0:01:51.500,0:01:53.583 And this is a really important point, 0:01:53.583,0:01:55.333 because we're optimistic about ourselves, 0:01:55.333,0:01:57.412 we're optimistic about our kids, 0:01:57.412,0:02:00.216 we're optimistic about our families, 0:02:00.216,0:02:02.783 but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us, 0:02:02.783,0:02:04.458 and we're somewhat pessimistic 0:02:04.458,0:02:08.583 about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country. 0:02:08.583,0:02:12.542 But private optimism about our own personal future 0:02:12.542,0:02:14.292 remains persistent. 0:02:14.292,0:02:18.250 And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay, 0:02:18.250,0:02:22.375 but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so. 0:02:22.375,0:02:25.292 Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments. 0:02:25.292,0:02:26.167 So to show you what I mean, 0:02:26.167,0:02:29.625 I'm going to do an experiment here with you. 0:02:29.625,0:02:33.875 So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics, 0:02:33.875,0:02:37.292 and I want you to think for each of these abilities 0:02:37.292,0:02:40.500 where you stand relative to the rest of the population. 0:02:40.500,0:02:44.917 The first one is getting along well with others. 0:02:44.917,0:02:48.708 Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent? 0:02:48.708,0:02:52.583 Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500. 0:02:52.583,0:02:58.458 Who believes they're at the top 25 percent? 0:02:58.458,0:03:01.583 That's most of us here. 0:03:01.583,0:03:05.375 Okay, now do the same for your driving ability. 0:03:05.375,0:03:08.958 How interesting are you? 0:03:08.958,0:03:10.971 How attractive are you? 0:03:10.971,0:03:14.833 How honest are you? 0:03:14.833,0:03:18.417 And finally, how modest are you? 0:03:18.417,0:03:23.167 So most of us put ourselves above average 0:03:23.167,0:03:24.042 on most of these abilities. 0:03:24.042,0:03:27.327 Now this is statistically impossible. 0:03:27.327,0:03:29.248 We can't all be better than everyone else. 0:03:29.248,0:03:31.583 (Laughter) 0:03:31.583,0:03:34.875 But if we believe we're better than the other guy, 0:03:34.875,0:03:38.958 well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married. 0:03:38.958,0:03:39.833 Because we're more social, more interesting. 0:03:39.833,0:03:43.042 And it's a global phenomenon. 0:03:43.042,0:03:44.833 The optimism bias has been observed 0:03:44.833,0:03:46.583 in many different countries -- 0:03:46.583,0:03:50.333 in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures, 0:03:50.333,0:03:51.208 in females and males, 0:03:51.208,0:03:53.625 in kids, in the elderly. 0:03:53.625,0:03:54.500 It's quite widespread. 0:03:54.500,0:03:56.250 But the question is, Is it good for us? 0:03:56.250,0:04:01.208 So some people say no. 0:04:01.208,0:04:03.833 Some people say the secret to happiness 0:04:03.833,0:04:06.833 is low expectations. 0:04:06.833,0:04:08.583 I think the logic goes something like this: 0:04:08.583,0:04:10.333 If we don't expect greatness, 0:04:10.333,0:04:15.167 if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful, 0:04:15.167,0:04:18.250 well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen. 0:04:18.250,0:04:21.750 And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen, 0:04:21.750,0:04:23.375 and we're pleasantly surprised when they do, 0:04:23.375,0:04:25.125 we will be happy. 0:04:25.125,0:04:27.858 So it's a very good theory, 0:04:27.858,0:04:30.208 but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons. 0:04:30.208,0:04:35.500 Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail, 0:04:35.500,0:04:37.250 people with high expectations always feel better. 0:04:37.250,0:04:42.875 Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month 0:04:42.875,0:04:45.458 depends on how we interpret that event. 0:04:45.458,0:04:49.708 The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown 0:04:49.708,0:04:52.333 studied students with high and low expectations. 0:04:52.333,0:04:55.625 And they found that when people with high expectations succeed, 0:04:55.625,0:04:59.750 they attribute that success to their own traits. 0:04:59.750,0:05:01.500 "I'm a genius, therefore I got an A, 0:05:01.500,0:05:04.667 therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future." 0:05:04.667,0:05:07.625 When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb, 0:05:07.625,0:05:10.875 but because the exam just happened to be unfair. 0:05:10.875,0:05:12.958 Next time they will do better. 0:05:12.958,0:05:16.250 People with low expectations do the opposite. 0:05:16.250,0:05:19.667 So when they failed it was because they were dumb, 0:05:19.667,0:05:21.167 and when they succeeded 0:05:21.167,0:05:23.792 it was because the exam just happened to be really easy. 0:05:23.792,0:05:26.500 Next time reality would catch up with them. 0:05:26.500,0:05:28.958 So they felt worse. 0:05:28.958,0:05:31.583 Number two: Regardless of the outcome, 0:05:31.583,0:05:35.583 the pure act of anticipation makes us happy. 0:05:35.583,0:05:38.667 The behavioral economist George Lowenstein 0:05:38.667,0:05:40.417 asked students in his university 0:05:40.417,0:05:43.625 to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity. 0:05:43.625,0:05:47.125 Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay 0:05:47.125,0:05:50.375 to get a kiss from a celebrity 0:05:50.375,0:05:52.125 if the kiss was delivered immediately, 0:05:52.125,0:05:57.625 in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days, 0:05:57.625,0:05:59.458 in one year, in 10 years? 0:05:59.458,0:06:01.542 He found that the students were willing to pay the most 0:06:01.542,0:06:04.833 not to get a kiss immediately, 0:06:04.833,0:06:08.167 but to get a kiss in three days. 0:06:08.167,0:06:10.583 They were willing to pay extra in order to wait. 0:06:10.583,0:06:14.417 Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years; 0:06:14.417,0:06:16.500 no one wants an aging celebrity. 0:06:16.500,0:06:21.042 But three days seemed to be the optimum amount. 0:06:21.042,0:06:22.792 So why is that? 0:06:22.792,0:06:26.708 Well if you get the kiss now, it's over an done with. 0:06:26.708,0:06:28.458 But if you get the kiss in three days, 0:06:28.458,0:06:33.458 well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait. 0:06:33.458,0:06:34.958 The students wanted that time 0:06:34.958,0:06:37.708 to imagine where is it going to happen, 0:06:37.708,0:06:38.583 how is it going to happen. 0:06:38.583,0:06:40.333 Anticipation made them happy. 0:06:40.333,0:06:45.417 This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday. 0:06:45.417,0:06:47.500 It's a really curious fact. 0:06:47.500,0:06:50.917 Because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure, 0:06:50.917,0:06:53.083 so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday, 0:06:53.083,0:06:55.542 but they don't. 0:06:55.542,0:06:58.417 It's not because they really, really like being in the office 0:06:58.417,0:06:59.292 and they can't stand strolling in the park 0:06:59.292,0:07:01.583 or having a lazy brunch. 0:07:01.583,0:07:02.458 We know that, because when you ask people 0:07:02.458,0:07:04.208 about their ultimate favorite day of the week, 0:07:04.208,0:07:08.167 surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first, 0:07:08.167,0:07:12.333 then Friday, then Sunday. 0:07:12.333,0:07:13.417 People prefer Friday 0:07:13.417,0:07:18.458 because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead, 0:07:18.458,0:07:20.375 all the plans that you have. 0:07:20.375,0:07:22.125 On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to 0:07:22.125,0:07:23.000 is the work week. 0:07:23.000,0:07:29.625 So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future, 0:07:29.625,0:07:30.500 more strolls in the park. 0:07:30.500,0:07:35.500 And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing. 0:07:35.500,0:07:38.125 In fact, without the optimism bias, 0:07:38.125,0:07:40.875 we would all slightly depressed. 0:07:40.875,0:07:43.250 People with mild depression, 0:07:43.250,0:07:45.875 they don't have a bias when they look into the future. 0:07:45.875,0:07:49.958 They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals. 0:07:49.958,0:07:53.167 But individuals with severe depression, 0:07:53.167,0:07:54.042 they have a pessimistic bias. 0:07:54.042,0:07:56.875 So they tend to expect the future 0:07:56.875,0:07:59.167 to be worse than it ends up being. 0:07:59.167,0:08:03.333 So optimism changes subjective reality. 0:08:03.333,0:08:07.083 The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it. 0:08:07.083,0:08:08.833 But it also changes objective reality. 0:08:08.833,0:08:12.083 It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. 0:08:12.083,0:08:15.458 And that is the third reason 0:08:15.458,0:08:17.208 why lowering your expectations will not make you happy. 0:08:17.208,0:08:19.750 Controlled experiments have shown 0:08:19.750,0:08:22.667 that optimism is not only related to success, 0:08:22.667,0:08:23.542 it leads to success. 0:08:23.542,0:08:28.667 Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics. 0:08:28.667,0:08:32.958 And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health. 0:08:32.958,0:08:37.083 If we expect the future to be bright, 0:08:37.083,0:08:39.500 stress and anxiety are reduced. 0:08:39.500,0:08:43.458 So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits. 0:08:43.458,0:08:47.500 But the question that was really confusing to me was, 0:08:47.500,0:08:51.000 How do we maintain optimism in the face of reality? 0:08:51.000,0:08:54.833 As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing, 0:08:54.833,0:08:58.083 because according to all the theories out there, 0:08:58.083,0:09:02.625 when your expectations are not met, you should alter them. 0:09:02.625,0:09:03.500 But this is not what we find. 0:09:03.500,0:09:06.583 We asked people to come into our lab 0:09:06.583,0:09:09.208 in order to try and figure out what was going on. 0:09:09.208,0:09:12.417 We asked them to estimate their likelihood 0:09:12.417,0:09:14.167 of experiencing different terrible events in their lives. 0:09:14.167,0:09:19.542 So for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer? 0:09:19.542,0:09:20.417 And then we told them the average likelihood 0:09:20.417,0:09:24.875 of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes. 0:09:24.875,0:09:26.625 So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent. 0:09:26.625,0:09:31.375 And then we asked them again, 0:09:31.375,0:09:32.250 How likely are you to suffer from cancer? 0:09:32.250,0:09:35.667 What we wanted to know 0:09:35.667,0:09:39.167 was whether people will take the information that we gave them 0:09:39.167,0:09:40.667 to change their beliefs. 0:09:40.667,0:09:43.667 And indeed they did -- 0:09:43.667,0:09:45.417 but mostly when the information we gave them 0:09:45.417,0:09:48.417 was better that what they expected. 0:09:48.417,0:09:49.292 So for example, 0:09:49.292,0:09:52.458 if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer 0:09:52.458,0:09:54.208 is about 50 percent," 0:09:54.208,0:09:57.667 and we said, "Hey, good news. 0:09:57.667,0:10:00.833 The average likelihood is only 30 percent," 0:10:00.833,0:10:02.125 the next time around they would say, 0:10:02.125,0:10:04.917 "Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent." 0:10:04.917,0:10:07.292 So they learned quickly and efficiently. 0:10:07.292,0:10:09.042 But if someone started off saying, 0:10:09.042,0:10:12.583 "My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent," 0:10:12.583,0:10:16.875 and we said, "Hey, bad news. 0:10:16.875,0:10:19.333 The average likelihood is about 30 percent," 0:10:19.333,0:10:21.083 they next time around they would say, 0:10:21.083,0:10:25.125 "Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent." 0:10:25.125,0:10:26.000 (Laughter) 0:10:26.000,0:10:28.042 So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did -- 0:10:28.042,0:10:32.208 but much, much less than when we gave them 0:10:32.208,0:10:33.958 positive information about the future. 0:10:33.958,0:10:37.208 And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them; 0:10:37.208,0:10:39.958 everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer 0:10:39.958,0:10:40.833 is about 30 percent 0:10:40.833,0:10:44.083 and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent. 0:10:44.083,0:10:48.375 But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them. 0:10:48.375,0:10:51.000 What this means is that warning signs such as these 0:10:51.000,0:10:55.292 may only have limited impact. 0:10:55.292,0:10:58.667 Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy. 0:10:58.667,0:11:03.042 What I wanted to know 0:11:03.042,0:11:05.333 was what was going on inside the human brain 0:11:05.333,0:11:09.458 that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally. 0:11:09.458,0:11:12.375 But at the same time, when we hear that the housing market is hopeful, 0:11:12.375,0:11:16.500 we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price." 0:11:16.500,0:11:19.000 To try and figure that out, 0:11:19.000,0:11:20.750 I asked the participants in the experiment 0:11:20.750,0:11:23.958 to lie in a brain imaging scanner. 0:11:23.958,0:11:25.208 It looks like this. 0:11:25.208,0:11:27.792 And using a method called functional MRI, 0:11:27.792,0:11:31.583 we were able to identify regions in the brain 0:11:31.583,0:11:35.000 that were responding to positive information. 0:11:35.000,0:11:37.625 One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus. 0:11:37.625,0:11:41.875 So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent," 0:11:41.875,0:11:44.500 and we said, "Hey, good news. 0:11:44.500,0:11:45.375 Average likelihood is 30 percent," 0:11:45.375,0:11:49.500 the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely. 0:11:49.500,0:11:52.125 And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist 0:11:52.125,0:11:54.500 or slightly pessimistic, 0:11:54.500,0:11:59.500 everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus 0:11:59.500,0:12:00.375 was functioning perfectly well, 0:12:00.375,0:12:04.250 whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen. 0:12:04.250,0:12:05.125 On the other side of the brain, 0:12:05.125,0:12:09.542 the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news. 0:12:09.542,0:12:14.083 And here's the thing, it wasn't doing a very good job. 0:12:14.083,0:12:16.083 The more optimistic you were, 0:12:16.083,0:12:16.958 the less likely this region was 0:12:16.958,0:12:21.125 to respond to unexpected negative information. 0:12:21.125,0:12:22.875 And if your brain is failing 0:12:22.875,0:12:27.500 at integrating bad news about the future, 0:12:27.500,0:12:32.000 you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on. 0:12:32.000,0:12:36.000 So we wanted to know could we change this. 0:12:36.000,0:12:40.458 Could we alter people's optimism bias 0:12:40.458,0:12:44.375 by interfering with the brain activity in these regions? 0:12:44.375,0:12:47.000 And there's a way for us to do that. 0:12:47.000,0:12:48.750 This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai. 0:12:48.750,0:12:54.167 And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse 0:12:54.167,0:12:55.917 through the skull of the participant in our study 0:12:55.917,0:12:58.208 into their inferior frontal gyrus. 0:12:58.208,0:13:00.458 And my doing that, 0:13:00.458,0:13:02.208 he's interfering with the activity of this brain region 0:13:02.208,0:13:05.208 for about half an hour. 0:13:05.208,0:13:06.083 After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you. 0:13:06.083,0:13:07.833 (Laughter) 0:13:07.833,0:13:09.583 So let's see what happens. 0:13:09.583,0:13:14.542 First of all, I'm going to show you 0:13:14.542,0:13:16.292 the average amount of bias that we see. 0:13:16.292,0:13:19.792 So if I was to test all of you now, 0:13:19.792,0:13:22.125 this is the amount that you would learn 0:13:22.125,0:13:23.875 more from good news relative to bad news. 0:13:23.875,0:13:27.667 Now we interfere with the region 0:13:27.667,0:13:31.042 that we found to integrate negative information in this task, 0:13:31.042,0:13:34.083 and the optimism bias grew even larger. 0:13:34.083,0:13:40.583 We made people more biased in the way that they process information. 0:13:40.583,0:13:43.542 Then we interfered with the brain region 0:13:43.542,0:13:47.583 that we found to integrate good news in this task, 0:13:47.583,0:13:50.208 and the optimism bias disappeared. 0:13:50.208,0:13:54.000 We were quite amazed by these results 0:13:54.000,0:13:55.792 because we were able to eliminate 0:13:55.792,0:13:57.542 a deep-rooted bias in humans. 0:13:57.542,0:14:02.500 And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves, 0:14:02.500,0:14:08.125 Would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits? 0:14:08.125,0:14:13.292 If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away? 0:14:13.292,0:14:18.292 Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias, 0:14:18.292,0:14:22.875 which probably makes you want hold onto it for dear life. 0:14:22.875,0:14:23.750 But there are, of course, pitfalls, 0:14:23.750,0:14:27.833 and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them. 0:14:27.833,0:14:31.333 Take for example this email I recieved 0:14:31.333,0:14:33.750 from a firefighter here in California. 0:14:33.750,0:14:37.208 He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters 0:14:37.208,0:14:40.458 often include 'we didn't think the fire was going to do that' 0:14:40.458,0:14:43.083 even when all of the available information 0:14:43.083,0:14:46.292 was there to make safe decisions." 0:14:46.292,0:14:49.750 This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias 0:14:49.750,0:14:50.625 to try and explain to the firefighters 0:14:50.625,0:14:53.875 why they think the way they do, 0:14:53.875,0:14:59.708 to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans. 0:14:59.708,0:15:05.750 So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior, 0:15:05.750,0:15:09.250 to financial collapse, to faulty planning. 0:15:09.250,0:15:11.542 The British government, for example, 0:15:11.542,0:15:15.708 has a acknowledged that the optimism bias 0:15:15.708,0:15:18.333 can make individuals more likely 0:15:18.333,0:15:22.375 to underestimate the costs and durations of projects. 0:15:22.375,0:15:25.875 So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget for the optimism bias. 0:15:25.875,0:15:29.958 My friend who's getting married in a few weeks 0:15:29.958,0:15:32.792 has done the same for his wedding budget. 0:15:32.792,0:15:35.792 And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce, 0:15:35.792,0:15:39.875 he said he was quite sure it was zero percent. 0:15:39.875,0:15:42.292 So what we would really like to do, 0:15:42.292,0:15:45.792 is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism, 0:15:45.792,0:15:50.958 but at the same time remain hopeful, 0:15:50.958,0:15:51.833 benefiting from the many fruits of optimism. 0:15:51.833,0:15:56.083 And I believe there's a way for us to do that. 0:15:56.083,0:15:56.958 The key here really is knowledge. 0:15:56.958,0:16:00.208 We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases. 0:16:00.208,0:16:02.833 These have to be identified by scientific investigation. 0:16:02.833,0:16:07.833 But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias 0:16:07.833,0:16:10.208 does not shatter the illusion. 0:16:10.208,0:16:12.125 It's like visual illusions 0:16:12.125,0:16:16.292 in which understanding them does not make them go away. 0:16:16.292,0:16:20.083 And this is good because it means we should be able to strike a balance, 0:16:20.083,0:16:23.583 to come up with plans and rules 0:16:23.583,0:16:24.458 to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism, 0:16:24.458,0:16:28.625 but at the same time remain hopeful. 0:16:28.625,0:16:31.250 I think this cartoon portrays it nicely. 0:16:31.250,0:16:36.083 Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there 0:16:36.083,0:16:37.833 who just does not believe they can fly, 0:16:37.833,0:16:40.792 you certainly never will. 0:16:40.792,0:16:41.792 Because to make any kind of progress, 0:16:41.792,0:16:43.542 we need to be able to imagine a different reality, 0:16:43.542,0:16:45.958 and then we need to believe that that reality is possible. 0:16:48.729,0:16:51.500 But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin 0:16:51.500,0:16:55.000 who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best, 0:16:55.000,0:16:58.458 you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground. 0:16:58.458,0:17:00.208 But if you're an optimistic penguin 0:17:00.208,0:17:05.958 who believes they can fly, but adjusts a parachute to your back 0:17:05.958,0:17:08.208 just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned, 0:17:08.208,0:17:09.917 you will soar like an eagle, 0:17:09.917,0:17:13.458 even if you're just a penguin. 0:17:13.458,0:17:14.333 Thank you. 0:17:14.333,0:17:17.833 (Applause)