[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.42,0:00:03.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chris Anderson: You were something of\Na mathematical phenom.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.22,0:00:06.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You had already taught\Nat Harvard and MIT at a young age.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.45,0:00:09.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then the NSA came calling.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.46,0:00:11.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What was that about?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.13,0:00:15.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Jim Simons: Well the NSA --\Nthat's the National Security Agency --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.30,0:00:17.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they didn't exactly come calling.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.58,0:00:21.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had an operation at Princeton,\Nwhere they hired mathematicians
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.96,0:00:25.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to attack secret codes\Nand stuff like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.05,0:00:27.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I knew that existed.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.66,0:00:29.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they had a very good policy
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.52,0:00:33.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because you could do half your time\Nat your own mathematics
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.22,0:00:36.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at least half your time\Nworking on their stuff.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.77,0:00:39.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they paid a lot.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.06,0:00:41.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that was an irresistible pull.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.86,0:00:43.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I went there.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.02,0:00:45.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So you were a code-cracker.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.50,0:00:46.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I was.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.31,0:00:47.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Until you got fired.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.55,0:00:49.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, I did get fired. Yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.04,0:00:50.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: How come?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.78,0:00:53.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, how come?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.61,0:00:58.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I got fired because,\Nwell the Vietnam War was on,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.49,0:01:03.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the boss of bosses in my organization\Nwas a big fan of the war
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.94,0:01:08.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and wrote a New York Times article,\Na magazine section cover story,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.84,0:01:10.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how we're going\Nto win in Vietnam.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.70,0:01:13.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I didn't like that war,\NI thought it was stupid.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.81,0:01:16.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I wrote a letter to the Times,\Nwhich they published,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.27,0:01:20.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saying not everyone \Nwho works for Maxwell Taylor,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.45,0:01:25.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if anyone remembers that name,\Nagrees with his views.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.01,0:01:27.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I gave my own views.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.21,0:01:29.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Oh, OK. I can see that would --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.21,0:01:31.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Which were different from General Taylor's.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.57,0:01:34.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in the end nobody said anything.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.04,0:01:37.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then, I was 29 years old at this time\Nand some kid came around
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.66,0:01:40.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and said he was a stringer \Nfrom Newsweek magazine
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.77,0:01:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he wanted to interview me\Nand ask what I was doing about my views.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.32,0:01:49.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I told him, I said, \N"I'm doing mostly mathematics now,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.73,0:01:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when the war is over\Nthen I'll do mostly their stuff."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.00,0:01:56.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then I did the only \Nintelligent thing I'd done that day --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.86,0:02:01.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I told my local boss\Nthat I gave that interview.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.25,0:02:02.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he said, "What'd you say?"
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.69,0:02:04.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I told him what I said.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.13,0:02:06.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then he said,\N"I've got to call Taylor."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.46,0:02:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He called Taylor; that took 10 minutes.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.72,0:02:11.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was fired five minutes after that.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.66,0:02:12.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: OK.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.75,0:02:13.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: But it wasn't bad.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.71,0:02:16.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: It wasn't bad, because\Nyou went on to Stony Brook
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.37,0:02:19.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and stepped up your mathematical career.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.68,0:02:23.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You started working\Nwith this man here. Who is this?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.02,0:02:25.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Oh, [Shiing-Shen] Chern.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.76,0:02:28.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chern was one of the great \Nmathematicians of the century.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.92,0:02:34.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had known him when\NI was a graduate student at Berkeley.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.17,0:02:36.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I had some ideas,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.01,0:02:38.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I brought them to him\Nand he liked them.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.12,0:02:44.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Together, we did this work \Nwhich you can easily see up there.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.74,0:02:46.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There it is.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.48,0:02:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: It led to you publishing\Na famous paper together.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.68,0:02:54.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can you explain at all what that work was?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.28,0:02:56.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: No.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.44,0:02:58.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.77,0:03:00.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I mean, I could \Nexplain it to somebody.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.65,0:03:02.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.15,0:03:04.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: How about explaining this?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.26,0:03:07.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: But not many.\NNot many people.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.95,0:03:11.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I think you told me\Nit had something to do with spheres,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.44,0:03:13.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so let's start here.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.46,0:03:17.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, it did,\Nbut I'll say about that work --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.06,0:03:20.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it did have something to do with that,\Nbut before we get to that --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.88,0:03:24.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that work was good mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.28,0:03:27.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was very happy with it; so was Chern.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.91,0:03:32.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It even started a little subfield\Nthat's now flourishing.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.64,0:03:37.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, more interestingly,\Nit happened to apply to physics,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.96,0:03:42.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something we knew nothing about --\Nat least I knew nothing about physics,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.28,0:03:44.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I don't think Chern\Nknew a heck of a lot.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.42,0:03:47.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And about 10 years\Nafter the paper came out,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.96,0:03:53.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a guy named Ed Witten in Princeton\Nstarted applying it to string theory
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.07,0:03:57.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people in Russia started applying it\Nto what's called "condensed matter."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.95,0:04:02.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, those things in there\Ncalled Chern-Simons invariants
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.68,0:04:04.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have spread through a lot of physics.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.47,0:04:05.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it was amazing.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.72,0:04:07.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We didn't know any physics.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.44,0:04:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It never occurred to me\Nthat it would be applied to physics.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.56,0:04:14.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's the thing about mathematics --\Nyou never know where it's going to go.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.27,0:04:15.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: This is so incredible.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.92,0:04:20.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, we've been talking about\Nhow evolution shapes human minds
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.31,0:04:22.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that may or may not perceive the truth.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.63,0:04:25.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somehow, you come up\Nwith a mathematical theory,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.80,0:04:28.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not knowing any physics,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.05,0:04:30.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,discover two decades later\Nthat it's being applied
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.57,0:04:33.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to profoundly describe\Nthe actual physical world.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.80,0:04:34.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How can that happen?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.80,0:04:35.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: God knows.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.10,0:04:38.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.75,0:04:41.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there's a famous physicist\Nnamed [Eugene] Wigner,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.93,0:04:47.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he wrote an essay on the\Nunreasonable effectiveness of mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.56,0:04:49.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somehow, this mathematics,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.36,0:04:52.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is rooted in the real world\Nin some sense --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.42,0:04:56.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we learn to count, measure, \Neveryone would do that --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.36,0:04:58.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then it flourishes on its own.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.71,0:05:01.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But so often it comes back\Nto save the day.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.99,0:05:04.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,General relativity is an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.50,0:05:07.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Hermann] Minkowski had this geometry,\Nand Einstein realized,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.70,0:05:11.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hey, it's the very thing \Nin which I can cast General Relativity.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.51,0:05:14.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, you never know. It is a mystery.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.90,0:05:16.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is a mystery.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.30,0:05:19.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So, here's a mathematical\Npiece of ingenuity.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.96,0:05:20.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tell us about this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.98,0:05:26.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, that's a ball -- it's a sphere,\Nand it has a lattice around it --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.93,0:05:29.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, those squares.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.58,0:05:35.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I'm going to show here was \Noriginally observed by [Leonhard] Euler,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.34,0:05:38.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the great mathematician, in the 1700's.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.35,0:05:43.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it gradually grew to be \Na very important field in mathematics:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.04,0:05:46.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,algebraic topology, geometry.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.11,0:05:51.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That paper up there had its roots in this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.43,0:05:53.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, here's this thing:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.28,0:05:58.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it has eight vertices,\N12 edges, six faces.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.11,0:06:01.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you look at the difference --\Nvertices minus edges plus faces --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.44,0:06:02.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you get two.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.95,0:06:05.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, well, two? That's a good number.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.03,0:06:09.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's a different way of doing it --\Nthese are triangles covering --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.31,0:06:18.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this has 12 vertices and 30 edges\Nand 20 faces, 20 tiles.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.36,0:06:23.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And vertices minus edges\Nplus faces still equals two.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.19,0:06:26.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact you could\Ndo this any which way,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.28,0:06:29.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cover this thing with all kinds\Nof polygons and triangles
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.48,0:06:31.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and mix them up.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.04,0:06:34.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you take vertices minus edges\Nplus faces -- you'll get two.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.34,0:06:36.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's a different shape.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.38,0:06:39.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a torus, the surface of a donut,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.53,0:06:43.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,16 vertices covered by these rectangles,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.32,0:06:46.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,32 edges, 16 faces.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.38,0:06:49.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Vertices minus edges comes out 0.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.48,0:06:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It'll always come out 0.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.00,0:06:55.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every time you cover a torus\Nwith squares or triangles
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.07,0:06:59.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or anything like that,\Nyou're going to get 0.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.09,0:07:03.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, this is called\Nthe Euler characteristic.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.15,0:07:06.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's what's called\Na topological invariant.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.73,0:07:07.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's pretty amazing.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.94,0:07:10.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No matter how you do it,\Nyou're always get the same answer.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.47,0:07:16.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that was the first sort of thrust, \Nfrom the mid-1700s,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.40,0:07:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into a subject which is now\Ncalled algebraic topology.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.96,0:07:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And your own work\Ntook an idea like this
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.42,0:07:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and moved it into\Nhigher-dimensional theory,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.44,0:07:29.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,higher-dimensional objects,\Nand found new invariants?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.55,0:07:34.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Yes. Well, there were already \Nhigher-dimensional invariants:
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.22,0:07:38.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pontryagin classes --\Nactually, there were Chern classes.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.70,0:07:41.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There were a bunch\Nof these types of invariants.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.56,0:07:45.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was struggling to work on one of them
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.66,0:07:50.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and model it sort of combinatorially
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.66,0:07:53.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,instead of the way it was typically done,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.49,0:07:58.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that led to this work\Nand we uncovered some new things.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.25,0:08:05.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if it wasn't for Mr. Euler --\Nwho wrote almost 70 volumes of mathematics
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.12,0:08:07.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and had 13 children
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.45,0:08:13.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who he apparently would dandle on his knee\Nwhile he was writing --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.25,0:08:19.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if it wasn't for Mr. Euler, there wouldn't\Nperhaps be these invariants.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.37,0:08:24.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: OK, so that's at least given us\Na flavor of that amazing mind in there.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.80,0:08:26.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's talk about Renaissance.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.54,0:08:31.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because you took that amazing mind\Nand having been a code-cracker at the NSA,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.39,0:08:35.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you started to become a code-cracker\Nin the financial industry.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.50,0:08:38.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think you probably didn't buy \Nefficient market theory.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.60,0:08:44.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somehow you found a way of creating\Nastonishing returns over two decades.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.63,0:08:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The way it's been explained to me,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.32,0:08:49.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what's remarkable about what you did\Nwasn't just the size of the returns,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.75,0:08:53.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's that you took them\Nwith surprisingly low volatility and risk
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.75,0:08:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared with other hedge funds.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.60,0:08:57.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how on earth did you do this, Jim?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.81,0:09:02.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I did it by assembling\Na wonderful group of people.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.04,0:09:05.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I started doing trading, I had \Ngotten a little tired of mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.77,0:09:09.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was in my late 30s. \NI had a little money.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.28,0:09:13.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started trading and it went very well.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.18,0:09:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I made quite a lot of money\Nwith pure luck.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.01,0:09:17.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, I think it was pure luck.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.59,0:09:19.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It certainly wasn't mathematical modeling.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.66,0:09:23.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in looking at the data,\Nafter a while I realized:
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.51,0:09:26.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it looks like there's some structure here.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.09,0:09:29.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I hired a few mathematicians,\Nand we started making some models --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.67,0:09:34.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just the kind of thing we did back \Nat IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses].
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.10,0:09:36.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You design an algorithm,\Nyou test it out on a computer.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.96,0:09:39.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Does it work? Doesn't it work? And so on.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.42,0:09:40.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Can we take a look at this?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.95,0:09:45.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because here's a typical graph\Nof some commodity.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.62,0:09:50.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I look at that, and I say, \NThat's just a random, up-and-down walk --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.58,0:09:53.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe a slight upward trend\Nover that whole period of time.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.34,0:09:54.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How on earth could you trade,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.83,0:09:57.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looking at that and see something\Nthat wasn't just random?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.54,0:10:01.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: In the old days -- this is \Nkind of a graph from the old days,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.20,0:10:05.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,commodities or currencies\Nhad a tendency to trend.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.68,0:10:11.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not necessarily the very light trend\Nyou see here, but trending in periods.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.34,0:10:16.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you decided, OK, I'm going \Nto predict today, by the average move
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.89,0:10:20.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the past 20 days -- there's 20 days --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.66,0:10:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe that would be a good prediction,\Nand I'd make some money.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.42,0:10:29.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, years ago\Nsuch a system would work --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.16,0:10:31.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not beautifully, but it would work.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.92,0:10:33.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'd make money, \Nyou'd lose money,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.40,0:10:34.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'd make money.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.45,0:10:37.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this is a year's worth of days,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.01,0:10:41.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you'd make a little money\Nduring that period.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.18,0:10:44.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a very vestigial system.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.52,0:10:48.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So you would test\Na bunch of lengths of trends in time
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.08,0:10:50.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see whether, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.80,0:10:54.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a 10-day trend or a 15-day trend\Nwas predictive of what happens next.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.67,0:11:00.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Sure, you would try all those things\Nand see what worked best.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.52,0:11:04.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trend-following would've \Nbeen great in the '60s,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.89,0:11:09.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it was sort of OK in the '70s.\NBy the '80s, it wasn't.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.51,0:11:11.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Because everyone could see that.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.78,0:11:15.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, how did you stay ahead of the pack?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.05,0:11:21.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: We stayed ahead of the pack\Nby finding other approaches --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.20,0:11:23.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shorter-term approaches to some extent.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.42,0:11:28.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The real thing was to gather\Na tremendous amount of data,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.32,0:11:32.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we had to get it by hand\Nin the early days.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.08,0:11:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We went down to the Federal Reserve\Nand copied interest rate histories
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.64,0:11:36.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and stuff like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.65,0:11:38.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because it didn't exist on computers.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.58,0:11:40.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We got a lot of data.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.81,0:11:44.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And very smart people -- that was the key.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.99,0:11:49.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I didn't really know how\Nto hire people to do fundamental trading.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.40,0:11:52.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had hired a few -- some made money,\Nsome didn't make money.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.72,0:11:54.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I couldn't make a business out of that.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.63,0:11:56.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I did know how to hire scientists,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.69,0:12:00.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I have some taste\Nin that department.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.10,0:12:02.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, that's what we did.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.15,0:12:05.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And gradually these models\Ngot better and better,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.17,0:12:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and better and better.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.93,0:12:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: You're credited with doing \Nsomething remarkable at Renaissance,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.12,0:12:12.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is building this culture,\Nthis group of people,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.61,0:12:15.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who weren't just hired guns\Nwho could be lured away by money.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.73,0:12:19.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Their motivation was \Ndoing exciting mathematics and science.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.82,0:12:22.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well I'd hoped that might be true.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.44,0:12:25.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But some of it was money.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.50,0:12:27.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: They made a lot of money.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.11,0:12:29.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I can't say that \Nno one came because of the money.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.68,0:12:31.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think a lot of them\Ncame because of the money.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.97,0:12:33.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they also came\Nbecause it would be fun.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.97,0:12:36.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: What role did machine learning\Nplay in all of this?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.70,0:12:39.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: In a certain sense,\Nwhat we did was machine learning.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.76,0:12:47.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You look at a lot of data, and you try\Nto simulate different predictive schemes
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.19,0:12:49.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until you get better and better at it.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.40,0:12:53.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It doesn't necessarily feed back on itself\Nthe way we did things.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.39,0:12:56.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it worked.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:56.32,0:13:00.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So these different predictive schemes \Ncan be really quite wild and unexpected.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.23,0:13:02.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, you look at everything, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.17,0:13:05.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You look at the weather, \Nlength of dresses, political opinion.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.51,0:13:07.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Yes, length of dresses we didn't try.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.42,0:13:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.88,0:13:10.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: What sort of things?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.11,0:13:12.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, everything.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.03,0:13:16.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Everything is grist for the mill --\Nexcept hem lengths.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.100,0:13:19.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Weather, annual reports,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.18,0:13:24.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,quarterly reports, historic data itself,\Nvolumes, you name it.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.01,0:13:25.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whatever there is.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.27,0:13:27.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We take in terabytes of data a day.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.75,0:13:33.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And store it away, massage it,\Nget it ready for analysis.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.31,0:13:34.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're looking for anomalies.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.96,0:13:36.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're looking for, like you said,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.62,0:13:40.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the efficient market \Nhypothesis is not correct.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.30,0:13:43.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But any one anomaly\Nmight be just a random thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.48,0:13:47.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so is the secret here\Nto just look at multiple strange anomalies
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.48,0:13:49.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see when they align?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.61,0:13:52.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Any one anomaly\Nmight be a random thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.63,0:13:56.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, if you have enough data\Nyou can tell that it's not.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.33,0:14:00.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see an anomaly that's persistent\Nfor a sufficiently long time --
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.16,0:14:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the probability\Nof it being random is not high.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.22,0:14:08.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But these things fade after a while.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.65,0:14:13.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anomalies can get washed out;\Nyou have to keep on top of the business.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.04,0:14:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: A lot of people look \Nat the hedge fund industry now
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.51,0:14:19.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and are sort of --
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.11,0:14:20.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shocked by it,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.18,0:14:22.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by how much wealth is created there
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.24,0:14:24.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how much talent is going into it.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:24.40,0:14:29.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you have any worries \Nabout that industry
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.90,0:14:31.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and perhaps the financial\Nindustry in general?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.97,0:14:34.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kind of being on a runaway train that's --
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.58,0:14:38.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't know, helping increase inequality?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.88,0:14:43.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How would you champion what's happening\Nin the hedge fund industry?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.79,0:14:45.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I think in the last\Nthree of four years,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.85,0:14:47.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hedge funds have not done especially well.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.85,0:14:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've done dandy,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.70,0:14:53.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the hedge fund industry as a whole\Nhas not done so wonderfully.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.12,0:14:58.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The stock market has been on a roll,\Ngoing up as everybody knows,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.56,0:15:01.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and price-earnings ratios have grown.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.34,0:15:04.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So an awful lot of the wealth \Nthat's been created in the last,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.57,0:15:07.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's say, five or six years\Nhas not been created by hedge funds.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.43,0:15:11.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People would ask me,\N"What's a hedge fund?"
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.83,0:15:14.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'd say, "One and 20."
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.36,0:15:17.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which means -- now it's two and 20 --
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.12,0:15:21.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's two percent fixed fee\Nand 20 percent of profits.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.16,0:15:23.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hedge funds are all different\Nkinds of creatures.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.47,0:15:26.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Rumor has it you charge\Nslightly higher fees than that.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.23,0:15:27.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.92,0:15:30.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: We charged the highest \Nfees in the world at one time.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:30.17,0:15:33.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Five and 44, that's what we charge.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.84,0:15:35.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Five and 44.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:35.09,0:15:38.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So 5 percent flat,\N44 percent of upside.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.64,0:15:41.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You still made your investors\Nspectacular amounts of money.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.40,0:15:42.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: We made good returns, yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.83,0:15:43.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People got very mad at my investors.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.83,0:15:45.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"How could you charge such high fees?"
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.68,0:15:47.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, "OK, you can withdraw."
Dialogue: 0,0:15:47.52,0:15:50.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"But how can I get more?"
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.17,0:15:51.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.97,0:15:53.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But at a certain point, as I told you,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.69,0:15:59.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we bought out all the investors \Nbecause there's a capacity to the fund.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.36,0:16:02.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But should we worry\Nabout the hedge fund industry
Dialogue: 0,0:16:02.32,0:16:05.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,attracting too much\Nof the world's great mathematical
Dialogue: 0,0:16:05.98,0:16:08.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and other talent to work on that
Dialogue: 0,0:16:08.44,0:16:10.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as opposed to the many\Nother problems in the world?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.82,0:16:12.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well it's not just mathematical.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.54,0:16:15.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We hire astronomers and physicists\Nand things like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.68,0:16:21.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think we should worry too much.\NIt's still a pretty small industry.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.68,0:16:27.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, bringing science \Ninto the investing world
Dialogue: 0,0:16:27.74,0:16:29.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has improved that world.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.88,0:16:33.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's reduced volatility.\NIt's increased liquidity.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.83,0:16:36.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Spreads are narrower because\Npeople are trading that kind of stuff.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.94,0:16:42.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'm not too worried about Einstein\Ngoing off and starting a hedge fund.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.61,0:16:46.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: You're at a phase in your life now\Nwhere you're actually investing, though,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.67,0:16:50.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the other end of the supply chain --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:50.18,0:16:54.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in boosting mathematics across America.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:54.07,0:16:56.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is your wife, Marilyn.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.44,0:17:00.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're working on \Nphilanthropic issues together.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:00.74,0:17:02.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tell me about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:02.41,0:17:06.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, Marilyn started --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:06.08,0:17:09.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there she is up there,\Nmy beautiful wife --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.68,0:17:12.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she started the foundation\Nabout 20 years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:12.68,0:17:13.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think '94.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.96,0:17:16.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I claim it was '93, \Nshe says it was '94,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:16.07,0:17:18.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it was one of those two years.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:18.44,0:17:20.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.60,0:17:23.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We started the foundation
Dialogue: 0,0:17:23.18,0:17:27.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just as a convenient way to give charity.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:27.96,0:17:30.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She kept the books, and so on.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:30.88,0:17:37.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We did not have a vision at that time,\Nbut gradually a vision emerged --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:37.24,0:17:43.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was to focus on math and science,\Nto focus on basic research.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:43.12,0:17:46.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's what we've done.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:46.14,0:17:52.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Six years ago or so, I left Renaissance\Nand went to work at the foundation.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:52.94,0:17:54.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's what we do.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:54.47,0:17:56.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And so Math for America here
Dialogue: 0,0:17:56.26,0:17:59.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is basically investing in math teachers\Naround the country,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:59.44,0:18:03.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,giving them some extra income,\Ngiving them support and coaching.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:03.76,0:18:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And really trying\Nto make that more effective
Dialogue: 0,0:18:06.90,0:18:09.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make that a calling\Nto which teachers can aspire.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:09.34,0:18:11.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Yeah, yeah.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:11.24,0:18:14.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead of beating up the bad teachers --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:14.44,0:18:18.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has created morale problems\Nall through the educational community,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.69,0:18:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in particular in math and science --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:21.62,0:18:27.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we focus on celebrating the good ones \Nand giving them status.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:27.77,0:18:31.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, we give them extra money,\N15,000 dollars a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:31.34,0:18:35.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have 800 math and science teachers\Nin New York City in public schools today
Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.48,0:18:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as part of a core.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:37.27,0:18:43.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a great morale among them.\NThey're staying in the field.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:43.26,0:18:46.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next year, it'll be 1,000 [teachers],\Nand that'll be 10 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:18:46.21,0:18:49.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the math and science teachers\Nin New York public schools.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:49.78,0:18:54.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:18:55.23,0:18:58.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Jim, here's another project\Nthat you've supported philanthropically:
Dialogue: 0,0:18:58.67,0:19:02.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Research into origins of life, I guess.\NWhat are we looking at here?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:03.40,0:19:05.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I'll save that for a second.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:05.78,0:19:07.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then I'll tell you\Nwhat you're looking at.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:07.47,0:19:13.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Origins of life is a fascinating question.\NHow did we get here?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:13.49,0:19:15.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, there's two questions.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:15.12,0:19:20.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One is, What is the root\Nfrom geology to biology?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:20.90,0:19:22.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How did we get here?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:22.69,0:19:25.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the other question is,\NWhat did we start with?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:25.02,0:19:27.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What material, if any,\Ndid we have to work with on this route?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:27.96,0:19:31.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those are two very,\Nvery interesting questions.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:31.58,0:19:37.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first question is a tortuous path\Nfrom geology up to RNA
Dialogue: 0,0:19:37.73,0:19:39.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or something like that --\Nhow did that all work?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:39.97,0:19:42.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the other,\NWhat do we have to work with?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:42.32,0:19:44.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, more than we think.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:44.12,0:19:49.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what's pictured there\Nis a star in formation.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:49.78,0:19:53.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now every year in our Milky Way,\Nwhich has 100 billion stars,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:53.28,0:19:56.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about two near stars are created.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:56.14,0:19:58.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Don't ask me how, but they're created.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:58.25,0:20:02.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it takes them\Nabout a million years to settle out.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:02.13,0:20:04.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, in steady state,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:04.52,0:20:08.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's about 2 million stars\Nin formation at any time.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:08.42,0:20:11.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That one is somewhere along\Nthis settling down period.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:11.84,0:20:15.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's all this crap\Nsort of circling around it.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:15.39,0:20:17.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Dust and stuff.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:17.48,0:20:20.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it'll form probably a solar system,\Nor whatever it forms.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:20.92,0:20:23.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But here's the thing --
Dialogue: 0,0:20:23.83,0:20:28.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in this dust that surrounds a forming star
Dialogue: 0,0:20:28.92,0:20:35.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been found, now,\Nsignificant organic molecules.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:35.59,0:20:42.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Molecules not just like methane\Nbut formaldehyde and cyanide --
Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.12,0:20:48.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things that are the building blocks,\Nthe seeds, if you will, of life.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:49.14,0:20:52.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, that may be typical.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:52.22,0:20:58.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it may be typical\Nthat planets around the universe
Dialogue: 0,0:20:58.97,0:21:03.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,start off with some of these\Nbasic building blocks.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:03.64,0:21:06.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, does that mean \Nthere's going to be life all around?
Dialogue: 0,0:21:06.54,0:21:07.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:07.96,0:21:12.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's a question\Nof how tortuous this path is
Dialogue: 0,0:21:12.28,0:21:16.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from those frail beginnings,\Nthose seeds, all the way to life.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:16.73,0:21:21.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And most of those seeds\Nwill fall on fallow planets.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:21.93,0:21:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So for you, personally,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:23.42,0:21:26.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,finding an answer to this question\Nof where we came from,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:26.09,0:21:29.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how did this thing happen,\Nthat is something you would love to see.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:29.78,0:21:32.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Would love to see. And like to know.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:32.20,0:21:38.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If that path is tortuous enough, \Nand so improbable
Dialogue: 0,0:21:38.44,0:21:43.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that no matter what you start with,\Nwe could be a singularity.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:43.25,0:21:44.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, on the other hand,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:44.69,0:21:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,given all this organic dust\Nthat's floating around,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:47.71,0:21:52.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we could have lots of friends out there.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:52.24,0:21:54.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It'd be great to know.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:54.30,0:21:56.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Jim, a couple of years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:56.44,0:22:00.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I got the chance to speak with Elon Musk,\Nand I asked him the secret of his success.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:00.71,0:22:04.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He said taking physics seriously was it.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:04.80,0:22:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Listening to you, what I hear you saying\Nis taking math seriously,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:08.72,0:22:11.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has infused your whole life.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:11.90,0:22:16.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's made you an absolute fortune,\Nand now it's allowing you to invest
Dialogue: 0,0:22:16.71,0:22:21.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the futures of thousands and thousands\Nof kids across America and elsewhere.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:21.10,0:22:26.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Could it be that science actually works?\NThat math actually works?
Dialogue: 0,0:22:26.65,0:22:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, math certainly works.\NMath certainly works.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:30.92,0:22:33.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this has been fun.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:33.03,0:22:37.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Working with Marilyn and giving it away\Nhas been very enjoyable.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:37.96,0:22:41.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I just find it --\Nit's an inspirational thought to me,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:41.23,0:22:44.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that by taking knowledge seriously,\Nso much more can come from it.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:44.97,0:22:47.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So thank you for your amazing life\Nand for coming here to TED.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:47.62,0:22:48.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Truly. Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:48.61,0:22:49.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Jim Simons.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:49.96,0:22:54.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)