1 00:00:00,420 --> 00:00:03,225 Chris Anderson: You were something of a mathematical phenom. 2 00:00:03,225 --> 00:00:06,453 You had already taught at Harvard and MIT at a young age. 3 00:00:06,453 --> 00:00:09,464 And then the NSA came calling. 4 00:00:09,464 --> 00:00:11,128 What was that about? 5 00:00:11,128 --> 00:00:15,296 Jim Simons: Well the NSA -- that's the National Security Agency -- 6 00:00:15,296 --> 00:00:17,575 they didn't exactly come calling. 7 00:00:17,575 --> 00:00:21,963 They had an operation at Princeton, where they hired mathematicians 8 00:00:21,963 --> 00:00:25,052 to attack secret codes and stuff like that. 9 00:00:25,052 --> 00:00:27,658 And I knew that existed. 10 00:00:27,658 --> 00:00:29,519 And they had a very good policy 11 00:00:29,519 --> 00:00:33,225 because you could do half your time at your own mathematics 12 00:00:33,225 --> 00:00:36,708 and at least half your time working on their stuff. 13 00:00:37,768 --> 00:00:39,057 And they paid a lot. 14 00:00:39,057 --> 00:00:41,857 So that was an irresistible pull. 15 00:00:41,857 --> 00:00:43,795 So, I went there. 16 00:00:44,025 --> 00:00:45,500 CA: So you were a code-cracker. 17 00:00:45,500 --> 00:00:46,306 JS: I was. 18 00:00:46,306 --> 00:00:47,550 CA: Until you got fired. 19 00:00:47,550 --> 00:00:49,033 JS: Well, I did get fired. Yes. 20 00:00:49,043 --> 00:00:50,778 CA: How come? 21 00:00:50,778 --> 00:00:53,161 JS: Well, how come? 22 00:00:53,611 --> 00:00:58,487 I got fired because, well the Vietnam War was on, 23 00:00:58,487 --> 00:01:03,943 and the boss of bosses in my organization was a big fan of the war 24 00:01:03,943 --> 00:01:08,842 and wrote a New York Times article, a magazine section cover story, 25 00:01:08,842 --> 00:01:10,699 about how we're going to win in Vietnam. 26 00:01:10,699 --> 00:01:13,810 And I didn't like that war, I thought it was stupid. 27 00:01:13,810 --> 00:01:16,273 And I wrote a letter to the Times, which they published, 28 00:01:16,273 --> 00:01:20,446 saying not everyone who works for Maxwell Taylor, 29 00:01:20,446 --> 00:01:25,006 if anyone remembers that name, agrees with his views. 30 00:01:25,006 --> 00:01:27,210 And I gave my own views. 31 00:01:27,210 --> 00:01:29,206 CA: Oh, OK. I can see that would -- 32 00:01:29,206 --> 00:01:31,574 JS: Which were different from General Taylor's. 33 00:01:31,574 --> 00:01:34,035 But in the end nobody said anything. 34 00:01:34,035 --> 00:01:37,657 But then, I was 29 years old at this time and some kid came around 35 00:01:37,657 --> 00:01:40,769 and said he was a stringer from Newsweek magazine 36 00:01:40,769 --> 00:01:46,318 and he wanted to interview me and ask what I was doing about my views. 37 00:01:46,318 --> 00:01:49,731 And I told him, I said, "I'm doing mostly mathematics now, 38 00:01:49,731 --> 00:01:54,004 and when the war is over then I'll do mostly their stuff." 39 00:01:54,004 --> 00:01:56,859 Then I did the only intelligent thing I'd done that day -- 40 00:01:56,859 --> 00:02:01,247 I told my local boss that I gave that interview. 41 00:02:01,247 --> 00:02:02,686 And he said, "What'd you say?" 42 00:02:02,686 --> 00:02:04,126 And I told him what I said. 43 00:02:04,126 --> 00:02:06,465 And then he said, "I've got to call Taylor." 44 00:02:06,465 --> 00:02:08,725 He called Taylor; that took 10 minutes. 45 00:02:08,725 --> 00:02:11,655 I was fired five minutes after that. 46 00:02:11,655 --> 00:02:12,230 CA: OK. 47 00:02:12,750 --> 00:02:13,709 JS: But it wasn't bad. 48 00:02:13,709 --> 00:02:16,369 CA: It wasn't bad, because you went on to Stony Brook 49 00:02:16,369 --> 00:02:19,684 and stepped up your mathematical career. 50 00:02:19,684 --> 00:02:23,301 You started working with this man here. Who is this? 51 00:02:24,021 --> 00:02:25,757 JS: Oh, [Shiing-Shen] Chern. 52 00:02:25,757 --> 00:02:28,916 Chern was one of the great mathematicians of the century. 53 00:02:28,916 --> 00:02:34,173 I had known him when I was a graduate student at Berkeley. 54 00:02:34,173 --> 00:02:36,007 And I had some ideas, 55 00:02:36,007 --> 00:02:38,120 and I brought them to him and he liked them. 56 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:44,738 Together, we did this work which you can easily see up there. 57 00:02:44,738 --> 00:02:46,490 There it is. 58 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,681 CA: It led to you publishing a famous paper together. 59 00:02:50,681 --> 00:02:54,484 Can you explain at all what that work was? 60 00:02:55,284 --> 00:02:56,289 JS: No. 61 00:02:56,439 --> 00:02:58,484 (Laughter) 62 00:02:58,774 --> 00:03:00,654 JS: I mean, I could explain it to somebody. 63 00:03:00,654 --> 00:03:02,473 (Laughter) 64 00:03:03,153 --> 00:03:04,868 CA: How about explaining this? 65 00:03:05,257 --> 00:03:07,770 JS: But not many. Not many people. 66 00:03:08,950 --> 00:03:11,440 CA: I think you told me it had something to do with spheres, 67 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,460 so let's start here. 68 00:03:13,460 --> 00:03:17,064 JS: Well, it did, but I'll say about that work -- 69 00:03:17,064 --> 00:03:20,880 it did have something to do with that, but before we get to that -- 70 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:24,280 that work was good mathematics. 71 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,520 I was very happy with it; so was Chern. 72 00:03:27,910 --> 00:03:32,638 It even started a little subfield that's now flourishing. 73 00:03:32,638 --> 00:03:37,956 But, more interestingly, it happened to apply to physics, 74 00:03:37,956 --> 00:03:42,275 something we knew nothing about -- at least I knew nothing about physics, 75 00:03:42,275 --> 00:03:44,179 and I don't think Chern knew a heck of a lot. 76 00:03:44,419 --> 00:03:47,963 And about 10 years after the paper came out, 77 00:03:47,963 --> 00:03:53,072 a guy named Ed Witten in Princeton started applying it to string theory 78 00:03:53,072 --> 00:03:57,948 and people in Russia started applying it to what's called "condensed matter." 79 00:03:57,948 --> 00:04:02,681 Today, those things in there called Chern-Simons invariants 80 00:04:02,681 --> 00:04:04,473 have spread through a lot of physics. 81 00:04:04,473 --> 00:04:05,724 And it was amazing. 82 00:04:05,724 --> 00:04:07,435 We didn't know any physics. 83 00:04:07,435 --> 00:04:10,556 It never occurred to me that it would be applied to physics. 84 00:04:10,556 --> 00:04:14,271 But that's the thing about mathematics -- you never know where it's going to go. 85 00:04:14,271 --> 00:04:15,920 CA: This is so incredible. 86 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:20,308 So, we've been talking about how evolution shapes human minds 87 00:04:20,308 --> 00:04:22,630 that may or may not perceive the truth. 88 00:04:22,630 --> 00:04:25,804 Somehow, you come up with a mathematical theory, 89 00:04:25,804 --> 00:04:28,049 not knowing any physics, 90 00:04:28,049 --> 00:04:30,571 discover two decades later that it's being applied 91 00:04:30,571 --> 00:04:33,696 to profoundly describe the actual physical world. 92 00:04:33,799 --> 00:04:34,803 How can that happen? 93 00:04:34,803 --> 00:04:35,997 JS: God knows. 94 00:04:36,097 --> 00:04:38,094 (Laughter) 95 00:04:38,754 --> 00:04:41,926 But there's a famous physicist named [Eugene] Wigner, 96 00:04:41,926 --> 00:04:47,390 and he wrote an essay on the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics. 97 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:49,356 Somehow, this mathematics, 98 00:04:49,356 --> 00:04:52,420 which is rooted in the real world in some sense -- 99 00:04:52,420 --> 00:04:56,363 we learn to count, measure, everyone would do that -- 100 00:04:56,363 --> 00:04:58,713 and then it flourishes on its own. 101 00:04:58,713 --> 00:05:01,987 But so often it comes back to save the day. 102 00:05:01,987 --> 00:05:04,495 General relativity is an example. 103 00:05:04,495 --> 00:05:07,699 [Hermann] Minkowski had this geometry, and Einstein realized, 104 00:05:07,699 --> 00:05:11,507 hey, it's the very thing in which I can cast General Relativity. 105 00:05:11,507 --> 00:05:14,619 So, you never know. It is a mystery. 106 00:05:14,899 --> 00:05:16,089 It is a mystery. 107 00:05:16,297 --> 00:05:19,965 CA: So, here's a mathematical piece of ingenuity. 108 00:05:19,965 --> 00:05:20,983 Tell us about this. 109 00:05:20,983 --> 00:05:26,931 JS: Well, that's a ball -- it's a sphere, and it has a lattice around it -- 110 00:05:26,931 --> 00:05:29,562 you know, those squares. 111 00:05:30,582 --> 00:05:35,336 What I'm going to show here was originally observed by [Leonhard] Euler, 112 00:05:35,336 --> 00:05:38,306 the great mathematician, in the 1700's. 113 00:05:38,346 --> 00:05:43,045 And it gradually grew to be a very important field in mathematics: 114 00:05:43,045 --> 00:05:46,879 algebraic topology, geometry. 115 00:05:47,109 --> 00:05:51,427 That paper up there had its roots in this. 116 00:05:51,427 --> 00:05:53,285 So, here's this thing: 117 00:05:53,285 --> 00:05:58,114 it has eight vertices, 12 edges, six faces. 118 00:05:58,114 --> 00:06:01,441 And if you look at the difference -- vertices minus edges plus faces -- 119 00:06:01,441 --> 00:06:02,946 you get two. 120 00:06:02,946 --> 00:06:05,034 OK, well, two? That's a good number. 121 00:06:05,034 --> 00:06:09,306 Here's a different way of doing it -- these are triangles covering -- 122 00:06:09,306 --> 00:06:18,361 this has 12 vertices and 30 edges and 20 faces, 20 tiles. 123 00:06:18,361 --> 00:06:23,191 And vertices minus edges plus faces still equals two. 124 00:06:23,191 --> 00:06:26,279 And in fact you could do this any which way, 125 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:29,484 cover this thing with all kinds of polygons and triangles 126 00:06:29,484 --> 00:06:31,039 and mix them up. 127 00:06:31,039 --> 00:06:34,336 And you take vertices minus edges plus faces -- you'll get two. 128 00:06:34,336 --> 00:06:36,377 Here's a different shape. 129 00:06:36,377 --> 00:06:39,527 This is a torus, the surface of a donut, 130 00:06:39,527 --> 00:06:43,315 16 vertices covered by these rectangles, 131 00:06:43,315 --> 00:06:46,385 32 edges, 16 faces. 132 00:06:46,385 --> 00:06:49,475 Vertices minus edges comes out 0. 133 00:06:49,475 --> 00:06:51,003 It'll always come out 0. 134 00:06:51,003 --> 00:06:55,071 Every time you cover a torus with squares or triangles 135 00:06:55,071 --> 00:06:59,881 or anything like that, you're going to get 0. 136 00:07:00,091 --> 00:07:03,151 So, this is called the Euler characteristic. 137 00:07:03,151 --> 00:07:06,726 And it's what's called a topological invariant. 138 00:07:06,726 --> 00:07:07,935 It's pretty amazing. 139 00:07:07,935 --> 00:07:10,466 No matter how you do it, you're always get the same answer. 140 00:07:10,466 --> 00:07:16,399 So that was the first sort of thrust, from the mid-1700s, 141 00:07:16,399 --> 00:07:20,960 into a subject which is now called algebraic topology. 142 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,422 CA: And your own work took an idea like this 143 00:07:23,422 --> 00:07:26,440 and moved it into higher-dimensional theory, 144 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,552 higher-dimensional objects, and found new invariants? 145 00:07:29,552 --> 00:07:34,219 JS: Yes. Well, there were already higher-dimensional invariants: 146 00:07:34,219 --> 00:07:38,700 Pontryagin classes -- actually, there were Chern classes. 147 00:07:38,700 --> 00:07:41,556 There were a bunch of these types of invariants. 148 00:07:41,556 --> 00:07:45,658 I was struggling to work on one of them 149 00:07:45,658 --> 00:07:50,658 and model it sort of combinatorially 150 00:07:50,658 --> 00:07:53,491 instead of the way it was typically done, 151 00:07:53,491 --> 00:07:58,251 and that led to this work and we uncovered some new things. 152 00:07:58,251 --> 00:08:05,118 But if it wasn't for Mr. Euler -- who wrote almost 70 volumes of mathematics 153 00:08:05,118 --> 00:08:07,446 and had 13 children 154 00:08:07,446 --> 00:08:13,252 who he apparently would dandle on his knee while he was writing -- 155 00:08:13,252 --> 00:08:19,612 if it wasn't for Mr. Euler, there wouldn't perhaps be these invariants. 156 00:08:20,366 --> 00:08:24,254 CA: OK, so that's at least given us a flavor of that amazing mind in there. 157 00:08:24,804 --> 00:08:26,541 Let's talk about Renaissance. 158 00:08:26,541 --> 00:08:31,394 Because you took that amazing mind and having been a code-cracker at the NSA, 159 00:08:31,394 --> 00:08:35,504 you started to become a code-cracker in the financial industry. 160 00:08:35,504 --> 00:08:38,596 I think you probably didn't buy efficient market theory. 161 00:08:38,596 --> 00:08:44,629 Somehow you found a way of creating astonishing returns over two decades. 162 00:08:44,629 --> 00:08:46,324 The way it's been explained to me, 163 00:08:46,324 --> 00:08:49,754 what's remarkable about what you did wasn't just the size of the returns, 164 00:08:49,754 --> 00:08:53,754 it's that you took them with surprisingly low volatility and risk 165 00:08:53,754 --> 00:08:55,524 compared with other hedge funds. 166 00:08:55,602 --> 00:08:57,766 So how on earth did you do this, Jim? 167 00:08:57,806 --> 00:09:02,035 JS: I did it by assembling a wonderful group of people. 168 00:09:02,035 --> 00:09:05,773 When I started doing trading, I had gotten a little tired of mathematics. 169 00:09:05,773 --> 00:09:09,279 I was in my late 30s. I had a little money. 170 00:09:09,279 --> 00:09:13,180 I started trading and it went very well. 171 00:09:13,180 --> 00:09:16,012 I made quite a lot of money with pure luck. 172 00:09:16,012 --> 00:09:17,591 I mean, I think it was pure luck. 173 00:09:17,591 --> 00:09:19,658 It certainly wasn't mathematical modeling. 174 00:09:19,658 --> 00:09:23,513 But in looking at the data, after a while I realized: 175 00:09:23,513 --> 00:09:26,090 it looks like there's some structure here. 176 00:09:26,090 --> 00:09:29,666 And I hired a few mathematicians, and we started making some models -- 177 00:09:29,666 --> 00:09:34,100 just the kind of thing we did back at IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses]. 178 00:09:34,100 --> 00:09:36,957 You design an algorithm, you test it out on a computer. 179 00:09:36,957 --> 00:09:39,418 Does it work? Doesn't it work? And so on. 180 00:09:39,418 --> 00:09:40,946 CA: Can we take a look at this? 181 00:09:40,946 --> 00:09:45,487 Because here's a typical graph of some commodity. 182 00:09:45,617 --> 00:09:50,580 I look at that, and I say, That's just a random, up-and-down walk -- 183 00:09:50,580 --> 00:09:53,343 maybe a slight upward trend over that whole period of time. 184 00:09:53,343 --> 00:09:54,832 How on earth could you trade, 185 00:09:54,832 --> 00:09:57,543 looking at that and see something that wasn't just random? 186 00:09:57,543 --> 00:10:01,196 JS: In the old days -- this is kind of a graph from the old days, 187 00:10:01,196 --> 00:10:05,679 commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend. 188 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:11,343 Not necessarily the very light trend you see here, but trending in periods. 189 00:10:11,343 --> 00:10:16,893 And if you decided, OK, I'm going to predict today, by the average move 190 00:10:16,893 --> 00:10:20,655 in the past 20 days -- there's 20 days -- 191 00:10:20,655 --> 00:10:23,418 maybe that would be a good prediction, and I'd make some money. 192 00:10:23,418 --> 00:10:29,146 And in fact, years ago such a system would work -- 193 00:10:29,156 --> 00:10:31,596 not beautifully, but it would work. 194 00:10:31,919 --> 00:10:33,400 You'd make money, you'd lose money, 195 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:34,449 you'd make money. 196 00:10:34,449 --> 00:10:37,013 But this is a year's worth of days, 197 00:10:37,013 --> 00:10:41,182 and you'd make a little money during that period. 198 00:10:41,182 --> 00:10:44,155 It's a very vestigial system. 199 00:10:44,525 --> 00:10:48,078 CA: So you would test a bunch of lengths of trends in time 200 00:10:48,078 --> 00:10:50,795 and see whether, for example, 201 00:10:50,795 --> 00:10:54,674 a 10-day trend or a 15-day trend was predictive of what happens next. 202 00:10:54,674 --> 00:11:00,805 JS: Sure, you would try all those things and see what worked best. 203 00:11:01,515 --> 00:11:04,889 Trend-following would've been great in the '60s, 204 00:11:04,889 --> 00:11:09,512 and it was sort of OK in the '70s. By the '80s, it wasn't. 205 00:11:09,512 --> 00:11:11,783 CA: Because everyone could see that. 206 00:11:11,783 --> 00:11:15,046 So, how did you stay ahead of the pack? 207 00:11:15,046 --> 00:11:21,202 JS: We stayed ahead of the pack by finding other approaches -- 208 00:11:21,202 --> 00:11:23,943 shorter-term approaches to some extent. 209 00:11:24,423 --> 00:11:28,317 The real thing was to gather a tremendous amount of data, 210 00:11:28,317 --> 00:11:32,080 and we had to get it by hand in the early days. 211 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,644 We went down to the Federal Reserve and copied interest rate histories 212 00:11:35,644 --> 00:11:36,653 and stuff like that. 213 00:11:36,653 --> 00:11:38,581 Because it didn't exist on computers. 214 00:11:38,581 --> 00:11:40,810 We got a lot of data. 215 00:11:40,810 --> 00:11:44,686 And very smart people -- that was the key. 216 00:11:44,986 --> 00:11:49,239 I didn't really know how to hire people to do fundamental trading. 217 00:11:49,399 --> 00:11:52,722 I had hired a few -- some made money, some didn't make money. 218 00:11:52,722 --> 00:11:54,626 I couldn't make a business out of that. 219 00:11:54,626 --> 00:11:56,692 But I did know how to hire scientists, 220 00:11:56,692 --> 00:12:00,105 because I have some taste in that department. 221 00:12:00,105 --> 00:12:02,148 So, that's what we did. 222 00:12:02,148 --> 00:12:05,167 And gradually these models got better and better, 223 00:12:05,167 --> 00:12:06,932 and better and better. 224 00:12:06,932 --> 00:12:10,122 CA: You're credited with doing something remarkable at Renaissance, 225 00:12:10,122 --> 00:12:12,608 which is building this culture, this group of people, 226 00:12:12,608 --> 00:12:15,731 who weren't just hired guns who could be lured away by money. 227 00:12:15,731 --> 00:12:19,819 Their motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science. 228 00:12:19,819 --> 00:12:22,442 JS: Well I'd hoped that might be true. 229 00:12:22,442 --> 00:12:25,496 But some of it was money. 230 00:12:25,496 --> 00:12:27,112 CA: They made a lot of money. 231 00:12:27,112 --> 00:12:29,681 JS: I can't say that no one came because of the money. 232 00:12:29,681 --> 00:12:31,966 I think a lot of them came because of the money. 233 00:12:31,966 --> 00:12:33,970 But they also came because it would be fun. 234 00:12:33,970 --> 00:12:36,699 CA: What role did machine learning play in all of this? 235 00:12:36,699 --> 00:12:39,763 JS: In a certain sense, what we did was machine learning. 236 00:12:39,763 --> 00:12:47,194 You look at a lot of data, and you try to simulate different predictive schemes 237 00:12:47,194 --> 00:12:49,400 until you get better and better at it. 238 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,394 It doesn't necessarily feed back on itself the way we did things. 239 00:12:53,394 --> 00:12:56,318 But it worked. 240 00:12:56,318 --> 00:13:00,233 CA: So these different predictive schemes can be really quite wild and unexpected. 241 00:13:00,233 --> 00:13:02,171 I mean, you look at everything, right? 242 00:13:02,171 --> 00:13:05,513 You look at the weather, length of dresses, political opinion. 243 00:13:05,513 --> 00:13:07,417 JS: Yes, length of dresses we didn't try. 244 00:13:07,417 --> 00:13:08,881 (Laughter) 245 00:13:08,881 --> 00:13:10,112 CA: What sort of things? 246 00:13:10,112 --> 00:13:12,032 JS: Well, everything. 247 00:13:12,032 --> 00:13:16,547 Everything is grist for the mill -- except hem lengths. 248 00:13:16,997 --> 00:13:19,176 Weather, annual reports, 249 00:13:19,176 --> 00:13:24,008 quarterly reports, historic data itself, volumes, you name it. 250 00:13:24,008 --> 00:13:25,267 Whatever there is. 251 00:13:25,267 --> 00:13:27,752 We take in terabytes of data a day. 252 00:13:27,752 --> 00:13:33,186 And store it away, massage it, get it ready for analysis. 253 00:13:33,306 --> 00:13:34,963 You're looking for anomalies. 254 00:13:34,963 --> 00:13:36,615 You're looking for, like you said, 255 00:13:36,615 --> 00:13:40,305 the efficient market hypothesis is not correct. 256 00:13:40,305 --> 00:13:43,483 CA: But any one anomaly might be just a random thing, 257 00:13:43,483 --> 00:13:47,478 so is the secret here to just look at multiple strange anomalies 258 00:13:47,478 --> 00:13:49,607 and see when they align? 259 00:13:49,607 --> 00:13:52,633 JS: Any one anomaly might be a random thing. 260 00:13:52,633 --> 00:13:56,328 However, if you have enough data you can tell that it's not. 261 00:13:56,328 --> 00:14:00,156 You can see an anomaly that's persistent for a sufficiently long time -- 262 00:14:00,156 --> 00:14:05,218 the probability of it being random is not high. 263 00:14:05,218 --> 00:14:08,654 But these things fade after a while. 264 00:14:08,654 --> 00:14:13,041 Anomalies can get washed out; you have to keep on top of the business. 265 00:14:13,041 --> 00:14:15,514 CA: A lot of people look at the hedge fund industry now 266 00:14:15,514 --> 00:14:19,107 and are sort of -- 267 00:14:19,107 --> 00:14:20,177 shocked by it, 268 00:14:20,177 --> 00:14:22,236 by how much wealth is created there 269 00:14:22,236 --> 00:14:24,396 and how much talent is going into it. 270 00:14:24,396 --> 00:14:29,900 Do you have any worries about that industry 271 00:14:29,900 --> 00:14:31,966 and perhaps the financial industry in general? 272 00:14:31,966 --> 00:14:34,584 Kind of being on a runaway train that's -- 273 00:14:34,584 --> 00:14:38,884 I don't know, helping increase inequality? 274 00:14:38,884 --> 00:14:43,788 How would you champion what's happening in the hedge fund industry? 275 00:14:43,788 --> 00:14:45,849 JS: I think in the last three of four years, 276 00:14:45,849 --> 00:14:47,847 hedge funds have not done especially well. 277 00:14:47,847 --> 00:14:48,705 We've done dandy, 278 00:14:48,705 --> 00:14:53,119 but the hedge fund industry as a whole has not done so wonderfully. 279 00:14:53,119 --> 00:14:58,562 The stock market has been on a roll, going up as everybody knows, 280 00:14:58,562 --> 00:15:01,339 and price-earnings ratios have grown. 281 00:15:01,339 --> 00:15:04,570 So an awful lot of the wealth that's been created in the last, 282 00:15:04,570 --> 00:15:07,300 let's say, five or six years has not been created by hedge funds. 283 00:15:08,430 --> 00:15:11,830 People would ask me, "What's a hedge fund?" 284 00:15:11,830 --> 00:15:14,361 And I'd say, "One and 20." 285 00:15:14,361 --> 00:15:17,124 Which means -- now it's two and 20 -- 286 00:15:17,124 --> 00:15:21,165 it's two percent fixed fee and 20 percent of profits. 287 00:15:21,165 --> 00:15:23,468 Hedge funds are all different kinds of creatures. 288 00:15:23,468 --> 00:15:26,229 CA: Rumor has it you charge slightly higher fees than that. 289 00:15:26,229 --> 00:15:27,925 (Laughter) 290 00:15:27,925 --> 00:15:30,169 JS: We charged the highest fees in the world at one time. 291 00:15:30,169 --> 00:15:33,835 Five and 44, that's what we charge. 292 00:15:33,835 --> 00:15:35,091 CA: Five and 44. 293 00:15:35,091 --> 00:15:38,641 So 5 percent flat, 44 percent of upside. 294 00:15:38,641 --> 00:15:41,400 You still made your investors spectacular amounts of money. 295 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:42,826 JS: We made good returns, yes. 296 00:15:42,826 --> 00:15:43,826 People got very mad at my investors. 297 00:15:43,826 --> 00:15:45,681 "How could you charge such high fees?" 298 00:15:45,681 --> 00:15:47,516 I said, "OK, you can withdraw." 299 00:15:47,516 --> 00:15:50,174 "But how can I get more?" 300 00:15:50,174 --> 00:15:51,967 (Laughter) 301 00:15:51,967 --> 00:15:53,692 But at a certain point, as I told you, 302 00:15:53,692 --> 00:15:59,351 we bought out all the investors because there's a capacity to the fund. 303 00:15:59,365 --> 00:16:02,315 CA: But should we worry about the hedge fund industry 304 00:16:02,315 --> 00:16:05,978 attracting too much of the world's great mathematical 305 00:16:05,978 --> 00:16:08,439 and other talent to work on that 306 00:16:08,439 --> 00:16:10,817 as opposed to the many other problems in the world? 307 00:16:10,817 --> 00:16:12,540 JS: Well it's not just mathematical. 308 00:16:12,540 --> 00:16:15,426 We hire astronomers and physicists and things like that. 309 00:16:15,676 --> 00:16:21,681 I don't think we should worry too much. It's still a pretty small industry. 310 00:16:21,681 --> 00:16:27,742 And in fact, bringing science into the investing world 311 00:16:27,742 --> 00:16:29,878 has improved that world. 312 00:16:29,878 --> 00:16:33,826 It's reduced volatility. It's increased liquidity. 313 00:16:33,826 --> 00:16:36,937 Spreads are narrower because people are trading that kind of stuff. 314 00:16:36,937 --> 00:16:42,394 So I'm not too worried about Einstein going off and starting a hedge fund. 315 00:16:42,614 --> 00:16:46,666 CA: You're at a phase in your life now where you're actually investing, though, 316 00:16:46,666 --> 00:16:50,182 at the other end of the supply chain -- 317 00:16:50,182 --> 00:16:54,072 in boosting mathematics across America. 318 00:16:54,072 --> 00:16:56,441 This is your wife, Marilyn. 319 00:16:56,441 --> 00:17:00,743 You're working on philanthropic issues together. 320 00:17:00,743 --> 00:17:02,408 Tell me about that. 321 00:17:02,408 --> 00:17:06,081 JS: Well, Marilyn started -- 322 00:17:06,081 --> 00:17:09,683 there she is up there, my beautiful wife -- 323 00:17:09,683 --> 00:17:12,678 she started the foundation about 20 years ago. 324 00:17:12,678 --> 00:17:13,955 I think '94. 325 00:17:13,955 --> 00:17:16,067 I claim it was '93, she says it was '94, 326 00:17:16,067 --> 00:17:18,437 but it was one of those two years. 327 00:17:18,437 --> 00:17:20,596 (Laughter) 328 00:17:20,596 --> 00:17:23,178 We started the foundation 329 00:17:23,178 --> 00:17:27,958 just as a convenient way to give charity. 330 00:17:27,958 --> 00:17:30,877 She kept the books, and so on. 331 00:17:30,877 --> 00:17:37,244 We did not have a vision at that time, but gradually a vision emerged -- 332 00:17:37,244 --> 00:17:43,119 which was to focus on math and science, to focus on basic research. 333 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,136 And that's what we've done. 334 00:17:46,136 --> 00:17:52,941 Six years ago or so, I left Renaissance and went to work at the foundation. 335 00:17:52,941 --> 00:17:54,473 So that's what we do. 336 00:17:54,473 --> 00:17:56,260 CA: And so Math for America here 337 00:17:56,260 --> 00:17:59,442 is basically investing in math teachers around the country, 338 00:17:59,442 --> 00:18:03,760 giving them some extra income, giving them support and coaching. 339 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,895 And really trying to make that more effective 340 00:18:06,895 --> 00:18:09,340 and make that a calling to which teachers can aspire. 341 00:18:09,340 --> 00:18:11,242 JS: Yeah, yeah. 342 00:18:11,242 --> 00:18:14,442 Instead of beating up the bad teachers -- 343 00:18:14,442 --> 00:18:18,691 which has created morale problems all through the educational community, 344 00:18:18,691 --> 00:18:21,616 in particular in math and science -- 345 00:18:21,616 --> 00:18:27,770 we focus on celebrating the good ones and giving them status. 346 00:18:27,770 --> 00:18:31,345 Yeah, we give them extra money, 15,000 dollars a year. 347 00:18:31,345 --> 00:18:35,478 We have 800 math and science teachers in New York City in public schools today 348 00:18:35,478 --> 00:18:37,266 as part of a core. 349 00:18:37,266 --> 00:18:43,259 There's a great morale among them. They're staying in the field. 350 00:18:43,259 --> 00:18:46,213 Next year, it'll be 1,000 [teachers], and that'll be 10 percent 351 00:18:46,213 --> 00:18:49,781 of the math and science teachers in New York public schools. 352 00:18:49,781 --> 00:18:54,217 (Applause) 353 00:18:55,227 --> 00:18:58,674 CA: Jim, here's another project that you've supported philanthropically: 354 00:18:58,674 --> 00:19:02,781 Research into origins of life, I guess. What are we looking at here? 355 00:19:03,401 --> 00:19:05,779 Well, I'll save that for a second. 356 00:19:05,779 --> 00:19:07,474 And then I'll tell you what you're looking at. 357 00:19:07,474 --> 00:19:13,486 Origins of life is a fascinating question. How did we get here? 358 00:19:13,486 --> 00:19:15,122 Well, there's two questions. 359 00:19:15,122 --> 00:19:20,905 One is, What is the root from geology to biology? 360 00:19:20,905 --> 00:19:22,694 How did we get here? 361 00:19:22,694 --> 00:19:25,024 And the other question is, What did we start with? 362 00:19:25,024 --> 00:19:27,955 What material, if any, did we have to work with on this route? 363 00:19:27,955 --> 00:19:31,583 Those are two very, very interesting questions. 364 00:19:31,583 --> 00:19:37,726 The first question is a tortuous path from geology up to RNA 365 00:19:37,726 --> 00:19:39,966 or something like that -- how did that all work? 366 00:19:39,966 --> 00:19:42,325 And the other, What do we have to work with? 367 00:19:42,325 --> 00:19:44,120 Well, more than we think. 368 00:19:44,120 --> 00:19:49,778 So what's pictured there is a star in formation. 369 00:19:49,778 --> 00:19:53,285 Now every year in our Milky Way, which has 100 billion stars, 370 00:19:53,285 --> 00:19:56,141 about two near stars are created. 371 00:19:56,141 --> 00:19:58,254 Don't ask me how, but they're created. 372 00:19:58,254 --> 00:20:02,132 And it takes them about a million years to settle out. 373 00:20:02,132 --> 00:20:04,522 So, in steady state, 374 00:20:04,522 --> 00:20:08,423 there's about 2 million stars in formation at any time. 375 00:20:08,423 --> 00:20:11,837 That one is somewhere along this settling down period. 376 00:20:11,837 --> 00:20:15,390 And there's all this crap sort of circling around it. 377 00:20:15,390 --> 00:20:17,479 Dust and stuff. 378 00:20:17,479 --> 00:20:20,916 And it'll form probably a solar system, or whatever it forms. 379 00:20:20,916 --> 00:20:23,834 But here's the thing -- 380 00:20:23,834 --> 00:20:28,924 in this dust that surrounds a forming star 381 00:20:28,924 --> 00:20:35,591 have been found, now, significant organic molecules. 382 00:20:35,591 --> 00:20:42,121 Molecules not just like methane but formaldehyde and cyanide -- 383 00:20:42,121 --> 00:20:48,816 things that are the building blocks, the seeds, if you will, of life. 384 00:20:49,136 --> 00:20:52,215 So, that may be typical. 385 00:20:52,215 --> 00:20:58,974 And it may be typical that planets around the universe 386 00:20:58,974 --> 00:21:03,639 start off with some of these basic building blocks. 387 00:21:03,639 --> 00:21:06,542 Now, does that mean there's going to be life all around? 388 00:21:06,542 --> 00:21:07,957 Maybe. 389 00:21:07,957 --> 00:21:12,276 But it's a question of how tortuous this path is 390 00:21:12,276 --> 00:21:16,734 from those frail beginnings, those seeds, all the way to life. 391 00:21:16,734 --> 00:21:21,931 And most of those seeds will fall on fallow planets. 392 00:21:21,931 --> 00:21:23,423 CA: So for you, personally, 393 00:21:23,423 --> 00:21:26,090 finding an answer to this question of where we came from, 394 00:21:26,090 --> 00:21:29,783 of how did this thing happen, that is something you would love to see. 395 00:21:29,783 --> 00:21:32,199 JS: Would love to see. And like to know. 396 00:21:32,199 --> 00:21:38,444 If that path is tortuous enough, and so improbable 397 00:21:38,444 --> 00:21:43,251 that no matter what you start with, we could be a singularity. 398 00:21:43,251 --> 00:21:44,691 But, on the other hand, 399 00:21:44,691 --> 00:21:47,710 given all this organic dust that's floating around, 400 00:21:47,710 --> 00:21:52,237 we could have lots of friends out there. 401 00:21:52,237 --> 00:21:54,304 It'd be great to know. 402 00:21:54,304 --> 00:21:56,440 CA: Jim, a couple of years ago, 403 00:21:56,440 --> 00:22:00,712 I got the chance to speak with Elon Musk, and I asked him the secret of his success. 404 00:22:00,712 --> 00:22:04,798 He said taking physics seriously was it. 405 00:22:04,798 --> 00:22:08,723 Listening to you, what I hear you saying is taking math seriously, 406 00:22:08,723 --> 00:22:11,903 that has infused your whole life. 407 00:22:11,903 --> 00:22:16,710 It's made you an absolute fortune, and now it's allowing you to invest 408 00:22:16,710 --> 00:22:21,098 in the futures of thousands and thousands of kids across America and elsewhere. 409 00:22:21,098 --> 00:22:26,648 Could it be that science actually works? That math actually works? 410 00:22:26,648 --> 00:22:30,920 JS: Well, math certainly works. Math certainly works. 411 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,033 But this has been fun. 412 00:22:33,033 --> 00:22:37,956 Working with Marilyn and giving it away has been very enjoyable. 413 00:22:37,956 --> 00:22:41,230 CA: I just find it -- it's an inspirational thought to me, 414 00:22:41,230 --> 00:22:44,968 that by taking knowledge seriously, so much more can come from it. 415 00:22:44,968 --> 00:22:47,615 So thank you for your amazing life and for coming here to TED. 416 00:22:47,615 --> 00:22:48,614 Truly. Thank you. 417 00:22:48,614 --> 00:22:49,960 Jim Simons. 418 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:54,186 (Applause)