[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chris Anderson: You were something of\Na mathematical phenom.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You had already taught\Nat Harvard and MIT at a young age.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then the NSA came calling.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What was that about?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Jim Simons: Well the NSA --\Nthat's the National Security Agency --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they didn't exactly come calling.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had an operation at Princeton\Nwhere they hired mathematicians
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to attack secret codes\Nand stuff like that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I knew that existed.\NAnd they had a very good policy
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they had a very good policy\Nbecause you could do half your time
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at your own mathematics
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at least half your time\Nworking on their stuff.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they paid a lot.\NSo that was an irresistible pull.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I went there.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So you were a code-cracker.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I was.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Until you got fired.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, I did get fired. Yes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: How come?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, how come?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I got fired because,\Nwell the Vietnam War was on,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the boss of bosses in my organization\Nwas a big fan of the war
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and wrote a New York Times article,\Na magazine section cover story,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how we're going\Nto win in Vietnam and so on.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I didn't like that war,\NI thought it was stupid
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I wrote a letter to the Times,\Nwhich they published, saying
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not everyone who works for Maxwell Taylor,\Nif anyone remembers that name,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,agrees with his views.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I gave my own views.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Oh, OK. I can see that would --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Which were different from General Taylor's.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in the end nobody said anything.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then, I was 29 years old at this time\Nand some kid came around
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and said he was a stringer \Nfrom Newsweek magazine
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he wanted to interview me\Nand ask what I was doing about my views.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I told him, I said, \N"I'm doing mostly mathematics now,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when the war is over\Nthen I'll do mostly their stuff."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then I did the only \Nintelligent thing I'd done that day --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I told my local boss\Nthat I gave that interview.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he said, "What'd you say?"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I told him what I said.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then he said, "I've got to call Taylor."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He calls Taylor; that took 10 minutes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was fired five minutes after that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it wasn't bad.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: It wasn't bad, because\Nyou went on to Stony Brook
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and stepped up your mathematical career.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You started working\Nwith this man here. Who is this?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Oh, [Shiing-Shen] Chern.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chern was one of the great \Nmathematicians of the century.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had known him when\NI was a graduate student at Berkeley.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I had some ideas,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I brought them to him\Nand he liked them.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Together, we did this work \Nwhich you can easily see up there.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There it is.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: It led to you publishing\Na famous paper together.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can you explain at all what that work was?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: No.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I mean, I could \Nexplain it to somebody.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: How about explaining this?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: But not many.\NNot many people.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I think you told me\Nit had something to do with spheres,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so let's start here.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, it did. But I'll say about that work --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it did have something to do with that,\Nbut before we get to that --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that work was good mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was very happy with it; so was Chern.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It even started a little subfield\Nthat's now flourishing.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, more interestingly,\Nit happened to apply to physics,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something we knew nothing about --\Nat least I knew nothing about physics,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I don't think Chern\Nknew a heck of a lot.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And about 10 years\Nafter the paper came out,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a guy named Ed Witten in Princeton\Nstarted applying it to string theory
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people in Russia started applying it\Nto what's called "condensed matter."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, those things in there\Ncalled Chern-Simons invariants
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have spread through a lot of physics.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it was amazing.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We didn't know any physics.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It never occurred to me\Nthat it would be applied to physics.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's the thing about mathematics --\Nyou never know where it's going to go.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: This is so incredible.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, we've been talking about\Nhow evolution shapes human minds
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that may or may not perceive the truth.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somehow, you come up\Nwith a mathematical theory,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not knowing any physics,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,discover two decades later\Nthat it's being applied
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to profoundly describe\Nhe actual physical world.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How can that happen?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: God knows.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there's a famous physicist\Nnamed [Eugene] Wigner,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he wrote an essay on the\Nunreasonable effectiveness of mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somehow, this mathematics,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is rooted in the real world\Nin some sense -- we learn to count,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,measure, everyone would do that --\Nand then it flourishes on its own.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But so often it comes back\Nto save the day.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,General relativity is an example.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Hermann] Minkowski had this geometry,\Nand Einstein realized,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Hey, it's the very thing \Nin which I can cast General Relativity."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, you never know. It is a mystery.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is a mystery.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So, here's a mathematical\Npiece of ingenuity.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tell us about this.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, that's a ball -- it's a sphere,\Nand it has a lattice around it --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you know, those squares.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I'm going to show here was \Noriginally observed by [Leonhard] Euler,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the great mathematician, in the 1700's.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it gradually grew to be \Na very important field in mathematics:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,algebraic topology, geometry.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That paper up there had its roots in this.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, here's this thing:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it has eight vertices,\N12 edges, six faces.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you look at the difference --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,vertices minus edges plus faces --\Nyou get two.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, well, two? That's a good number.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's a different way of doing it --\Nthese are triangles covering --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this has 12 vertices and 30 edges\Nand 20 faces, 20 tiles.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And vertices minus edges\Nplus faces still equals two.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact you could\Ndo this any which way,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cover this thing with all kinds\Nof polygons and triangles
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and mix them up.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you take vertices minus edges\Nplus faces -- you'll get two.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's a different shape.\NThis is a torus, the surface of a donut,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,16 vertices covered by these rectangles,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,32 edges, 16 faces,\Nvertices minus edges comes out 0.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It'll always come out 0.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every time you cover a torus\Nwith squares or triangles
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or anything like that,\Nyou're going to get 0.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, this is called\Nthe Euler characteristic.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's what's called\Na topological invariant.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's pretty amazing,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no matter how you do it\Nyou'll always get the same answer.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that was the first sort of thrust, \Nfrom the mid-1700s,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into a subject which is now\Ncalled algebraic topology.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And your own work\Ntook an idea like this
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and moved it into\Nhigher-dimensional theory,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,higher-dimensional objects,\Nand found new invariants?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Yes. Well, there were already \Nhigher-dimensional invariants:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pontryagin classes --\Nactually, there were Chern classes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There were a bunch\Nof these types of invariants.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was struggling to work on one of them\Nand model it sort of combinatorially
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,instead of the way it was typically done,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that led to this work\Nand we uncovered some new things.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if it wasn't for Mr. Euler --\Nwho wrote almost 70 volumes of mathematics
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and had 13 children
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who he apparently would dandle on his knee\Nas he was writing --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if it wasn't for Mr. Euler, there wouldn't\Nperhaps be these invariants.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: OK, so that's at least given us\Na flavor of that amazing mind in there.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's talk about Renaissance.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because you took that amazing mind\Nand having been a code-cracker at the NSA,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you started to become a code-cracker\Nin the financial industry.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think you probably didn't buy \Nefficient market theory.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somehow you found a way of creating\Nastonishing returns over two decades.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The way it's been explained to me,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what's remarkable about what you did\Nwasn't just the size of the returns,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's that you took them\Nwith surprisingly low volatility and risk
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared with other hedge funds.\NSo how on earth did you do this, Jim?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I did it by assembling\Na wonderful group of people.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I started doing trading, I had \Ngotten a little tired of mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was in my late 30s. \NI had a little money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started trading and it went very well.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I made quite a lot of money\Nwith pure luck.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, I think it was pure luck.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It certainly wasn't mathematical modeling.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in looking at the data,\Nafter a while I realized:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it looks like there's some structure here.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I hired a few mathematicians,\Nand we started making some models --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just the kind of thing we did back \Nat IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses].
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You design an algorithm,\Nyou test it out on a computer.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Does it work? Doesn't it work? And so on.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Can we take a look at this?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because here's a typical graph\Nof some commodity.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I look at that, and I say, \N"That's just a random, up-and-down walk --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe a slight upward trend \Nover that whole period of time."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How on earth could you trade,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looking at that and see something\Nthat wasn't just random?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: In the old days -- this is \Nkind of a graph from the old days,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,commodities or currencies\Nhad a tendency to trend.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not necessarily the very light trend\Nyou see here, but trending in periods.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you decided, "OK, I'm going \Nto predict today, by the average move
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the past 20 days -- there's 20 days --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe that would be a good prediction,\Nand I'd make some money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, years ago\Nsuch a system would work --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not beautifully, but it would work.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'd make money, \Nyou'd lose money,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'd make money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this is a year's worth of days,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you'd make a little money\Nduring that period.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a very vestigial system.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So you would test\Na bunch of lengths of trends in time
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see whether, for example,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a 10-day trend or a 15-day trend\Nwas predictive of what happens next.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Sure, you would try all those things\Nand see what worked best.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trend-following would've \Nbeen great in the '60s,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it was sort of OK in the '70s.\NBy the '80s, it wasn't.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Because everyone could see that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, how did you stay ahead of the pack?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: We stayed ahead of the pack\Nby finding other approaches --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shorter-term approaches to some extent.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The real thing was to gather\Na tremendous amount of data,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we had to get it by hand\Nin the early days.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We went down to the Federal Reserve\Nand copied interest rate histories
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and stuff like that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because it didn't exist on computers.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We got a lot of data.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And very smart people -- that was the key.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I didn't really know how\Nto hire people to do fundamental trading.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had hired a few -- some made money,\Nsome didn't make money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I couldn't make a business out of that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I did know how to hire scientists,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I have some taste\Nin that department.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, that's what we did.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And gradually these models\Ngot better and better,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and better and better.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I think your credited with\Ndoing something remarkable at Renaissance,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is building this culture,\Nthis group of people,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who weren't just hired guns\Nwho could be lured away by money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Their motivation was \Ndoing exciting mathematics and science.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well I'd hoped that might be true.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But some of it was money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: They made a lot of money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: I can't say that \Nno one came because of the money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think a lot of them\Ncame because of the money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they also came\Nbecause it would be fun.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: What role did machine learning\Nplay in all of this?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: In a certain sense,\Nwhat we did was machine learning.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You look at a lot of data, and you try\Nto simulate different predictive schemes
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until you get better and better at it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It doesn't necessarily feed back on itself,\Nthe way we did things.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it worked.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So these different predictive schemes \Ncan be really quite wild, quite unexpected.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, you look at everything, right?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You look at the weather, \Nlength of dresses, political opinion.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Yes, length of dresses we didn't try.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: What sort of things?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, everything. \NEverything is grist for the mill --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except hem lengths.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Weather, annual reports,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,quarterly reports, historic data itself,\Nvolumes, you know it. Whatever there is.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We take in terabytes of data a day. \NAnd store it away, massage it,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get it ready for analysis.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're looking for anomalies.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're looking for, like you said,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the efficient market \Nhypothesis is not correct.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But any one anomaly\Nmight be just a random thing,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so is the secret here\Nto just look at multiple strange anomalies
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and see when they align?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Any one anomaly\Nmight be a random thing.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, if you have enough data\Nyou can tell that it's not.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see an anomaly that's persistent\Nfor a sufficiently long time --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the probability\Nof it being random is not high.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But these things fade after a while.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anomalies can get washed out;\Nyou have to keep on top of the business.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: A lot of people \Nlook at the hedge fund industry now
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and are sort of shocked by it --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by how much wealth is created there\Nand how much talent is going into it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you have any worries \Nabout that industry
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and perhaps the financial\Nindustry in general?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kind of being on a runaway train that's,\NI don't know, helping increase inequality?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How would you champion what's happening\Nin the hedge fund industry?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Actually, I think\Nthat in the last three of four years,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hedge funds have not done especially well.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've done dandy,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the hedge fund industry as a whole\Nhas not done so wonderfully.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The stock market has been on a roll,\Ngoing up as everybody knows,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and price-earnings rations have grown.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So an awful lot \Nof the wealth that's been created
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the last, let's say, five or six years\Nhas not been created by hedge funds.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People would ask me,\N"What's a hedge fund?"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'd say, "One in 20."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which means -- now it's two in 20 --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's two percent fixed fee\Non 20 percent of profits.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hedge funds are all different\Nkinds of creatures.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Rumor has it you charge\Nslightly higher fees than that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: We charged the highest \Nfees in the world at one time.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Five and 44, that's what we change.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Five and 44. So 5 percent flat, \N44 percent of upside.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You still made your investors\Nspectacular amounts of money.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: We made good returns, yes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People got very mad at my investors:\N"How could you charge such high fees?"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I said, "OK, you can withdraw."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"But how can I get more?"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But at a certain point, as I told you,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we bought out all the investors \Nbecause they's a capacity to the fund.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But should we worry
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the hedge fund industry attracting\Ntoo much of the world's great mathematical
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and other talent to work on that
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as opposed to the many\Nother problems in the world?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well it's not just mathematical.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We hire astronomers and physicists\Nand things like that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think we should worry too much.\NIt's still a pretty small industry.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, bringing science \Ninto the investing world
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has improved that world.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's reduced volatility.\NIt's increased liquidity.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Spreads are narrower because\Npeople are trading that kind of stuff.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'm not too worried about Einstein\Ngoing off and starting a hedge fund.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: You're at a phase in your life now\Nwhere you're actually investing, though,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the other end of the supply chain --\Nin boosting mathematics across America.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is your wife, Marilyn.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're working on \Nphilanthropic issues together.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tell me about that.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, Marily started --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there she is up there,\Nmy beautiful wife --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,she started the foundation\Nabout 20 years ago.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think '94.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I claim it was '93, \Nshe says it was '94,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it was one of those two years.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We started the foundation\Njust as a convenient way to give charity.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She kept the books, and so on.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We did not have a vision at that time,\Nbut gradually a vision emerged --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was to focus on math and science,\Nto focus on basic research.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's what we've done.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Six years ago or so, I left Renaissance\Nand went to work at the foundation.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's what we do.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And so Math for America here
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is basically investing in math teachers\Naround the country,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,giving them some extra income,\Ngiving them support and coaching.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And really trying\Nto make that more effective
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make that a calling\Nto which teachers can aspire.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Yeah. Instead of \Nbeating up the bad teachers --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has created morale problems\Nall through the educational community,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in particular in math and science --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we focus on celebrating the good ones \Nand giving them status.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yeah, we give them extra money,\N15,000 dollars a year.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have 800 math and science teachers\Nin New York City in public schools today
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as part of a core.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a great morale among them.\NThey're staying in the field.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next year, it'll be 1,000 [teachers],\Nand that'll be 10 percent
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the math and science teachers\Nin New York public schools.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Jim, here's another project\Nthat you've supported philanthropically:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Research into origins of life, I guess.\NWhat are we looking at here?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I'll save that for a second.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then I'll tell you\Nwhat you're looking at.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Origins of life is a fascinating question.\NHow did we get here?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, there's two questions.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One is, "What is the root\Nfrom geology to biology?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How did we get here?"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the other question is,\N"What did we start with?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What material, if any,\Ndid we have to work with on this route?"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those are two very,\Nvery interesting questions.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first question is a tortuous path\Nfrom geology up to RNA
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or something like that --\Nhow did that all work?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the other,\N"What do we have to work with?"
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, more than we think.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that picture there\Nis a star in formation.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now every year in our Milky Way,\Nwhich has 100 billion stars,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about two near stars are created.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Don't ask me how, but they're created.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it takes them\Nabout a million years to settle out.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, in steady state,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's about 2 million stars\Nin formation at any time.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That one is somewhere along\Nthis settling down period.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's all this crap\Nsort of circling around it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Dust and stuff.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it'll form probably a solar system,\Nor whatever it forms.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But here's the thing -- in this dust\Nthat surrounds a forming star,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been found, now,\Nsignificant organic molecules.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Molecules not just like methane\Nbut formaldehyde and cyanide --
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,things that are the building blocks,\Nthe seeds, if you will, of life.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, that may be typical.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it may be typical
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that planets around the universe start off\Nwith some of these basic building blocks.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, does that mean \Nthere's going to be life all around?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's a question\Nof how tortuous this path is
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from those frail beginnings,\Nthose seeds, all the way to life.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And most of those seeds\Nwill fall on fallow planets.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So for you, personally,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,finding an answer to this question\Nof where we came from,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how did this thing happen,\Nthat is something you would love to see.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Would love to see. And like to know.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If that path is tortuous enough, \Nand so improbable
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that no matter what you start with,\Nwe could be a singularity.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, on the other hand,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,given all this organic dust\Nthat's floating around,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we could have lots of friends out there.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It'd be great to know.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Jim, a couple of years ago,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I got the chance to speak with Elon Musk,\Nand I asked him the secret of his success.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He said taking physics seriously was it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Listening to you, what I hear you saying\Nis taking math seriously,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has infused your whole life.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's made you an absolute fortune,\Nand now it's allowing you to invest
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the futures of thousands and thousands\Nof kids across America and elsewhere.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Could it be that science actually works?\NThat math actually works?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JS: Well, math certainly works.\NMath certainly works.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this has been fun.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Working with Marilyn and giving it away\Nhas been very enjoyable.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I just find it --\Nit's an inspirational though to me,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that by taking knowledge seriously,\Nso much more can come from it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So thank you for your amazing life\Nand for coming here to TED.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Truly. Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Jim Simons.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)