WEBVTT 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Chris Anderson: You were something of a mathematical phenom. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 You had already taught at Harvard and MIT at a young age. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And then the NSA came calling. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What was that about? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Jim Simons: Well the NSA -- that's the National Security Agency -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 they didn't exactly come calling. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 They had an operation at Princeton where they hired mathematicians 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to attack secret codes and stuff like that. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I knew that existed. And they had a very good policy 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And they had a very good policy because you could do half your time 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 at your own mathematics 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and at least half your time working on their stuff. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And they paid a lot. So that was an irresistible pull. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So, I went there. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: So you were a code-cracker. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: I was. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: Until you got fired. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: Well, I did get fired. Yes. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: How come? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: Well, how come? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I got fired because, well the Vietnam War was on, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and the boss of bosses in my organization was a big fan of the war 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and wrote a New York Times article, a magazine section cover story, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 about how we're going to win in Vietnam and so on. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I didn't like that war, I thought it was stupid 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and I wrote a letter to the Times, which they published, saying 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 not everyone who works for Maxwell Taylor, if anyone remembers that name, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 agrees with his views. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I gave my own views. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: Oh, OK. I can see that would -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: Which were different from General Taylor's. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But in the end nobody said anything. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But then, I was 29 years old at this time and some kid came around 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and said he was a stringer from Newsweek magazine 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and he wanted to interview me and ask what I was doing about my views. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I told him, I said, "I'm doing mostly mathematics now, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and when the war is over then I'll do mostly their stuff." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Then I did the only intelligent thing I'd done that day -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I told my local boss that I gave that interview. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And he said, "What'd you say?" 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I told him what I said. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And then he said, "I've got to call Taylor." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 He calls Taylor; that took 10 minutes. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I was fired five minutes after that. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But it wasn't bad. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: It wasn't bad, because you went on to Stony Brook 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and stepped up your mathematical career. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 You started working with this man here. Who is this? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: Oh, [Shiing-Shen] Chern. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Chern was one of the great mathematicians of the century. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I had known him when I was a graduate student at Berkeley. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I had some ideas, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and I brought them to him and he liked them. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Together, we did this work which you can easily see up there. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 There it is. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: It led to you publishing a famous paper together. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Can you explain at all what that work was? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: No. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: I mean, I could explain it to somebody. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: How about explaining this? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: But not many. Not many people. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: I think you told me it had something to do with spheres, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 so let's start here. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: Well, it did. But I'll say about that work -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 it did have something to do with that, but before we get to that -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that work was good mathematics. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I was very happy with it; so was Chern. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It even started a little subfield that's now flourishing. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But, more interestingly, it happened to apply to physics, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 something we knew nothing about -- at least I knew nothing about physics, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and I don't think Chern knew a heck of a lot. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And about 10 years after the paper came out, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 a guy named Ed Witten in Princeton started applying it to string theory 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and people in Russia started applying it to what's called "condensed matter." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Today, those things in there called Chern-Simons invariants 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 have spread through a lot of physics. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And it was amazing. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 We didn't know any physics. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It never occurred to me that it would be applied to physics. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But that's the thing about mathematics -- you never know where it's going to go. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: This is so incredible. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So, we've been talking about how evolution shapes human minds 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that may or may not perceive the truth. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Somehow, you come up with a mathematical theory, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 not knowing any physics, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 discover two decades later that it's being applied 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 to profoundly describe he actual physical world. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 How can that happen? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: God knows. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 (Laughter) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But there's a famous physicist named [Eugene] Wigner, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and he wrote an essay on the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Somehow, this mathematics, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 which is rooted in the real world in some sense -- we learn to count, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 measure, everyone would do that -- and then it flourishes on its own. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But so often it comes back to save the day. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 General relativity is an example. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 [Hermann] Minkowski had this geometry, and Einstein realized, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 "Hey, it's the very thing in which I can cast General Relativity." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So, you never know. It is a mystery. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It is a mystery. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: So, here's a mathematical piece of ingenuity. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Tell us about this. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: Well, that's a ball -- it's a sphere, and it has a lattice around it -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you know, those squares. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 What I'm going to show here was originally observed by [Leonhard] Euler, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 the great mathematician, in the 1700's. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And it gradually grew to be a very important field in mathematics: 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 algebraic topology, geometry. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 That paper up there had its roots in this. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So, here's this thing: 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 it has eight vertices, 12 edges, six faces. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And if you look at the difference -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 vertices minus edges plus faces -- you get two. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 OK, well, two? That's a good number. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Here's a different way of doing it -- these are triangles covering -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 this has 12 vertices and 30 edges and 20 faces, 20 tiles. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And vertices minus edges plus faces still equals two. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And in fact you could do this any which way, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 cover this thing with all kinds of polygons and triangles 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and mix them up. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And you take vertices minus edges plus faces -- you'll get two. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Here's a different shape. This is a torus, the surface of a donut, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 16 vertices covered by these rectangles, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 32 edges, 16 faces, vertices minus edges comes out 0. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It'll always come out 0. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Every time you cover a torus with squares or triangles 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 or anything like that, you're going to get 0. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So, this is called the Euler characteristic. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And it's what's called a topological invariant. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It's pretty amazing, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 no matter how you do it you'll always get the same answer. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So that was the first sort of thrust, from the mid-1700s, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 into a subject which is now called algebraic topology. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: And your own work took an idea like this 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and moved it into higher-dimensional theory, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 higher-dimensional objects, and found new invariants? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: Yes. Well, there were already higher-dimensional invariants: 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Pontryagin classes -- actually, there were Chern classes. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 There were a bunch of these types of invariants. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I was struggling to work on one of them and model it sort of combinatorially 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 instead of the way it was typically done, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and that led to this work and we uncovered some new things. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But if it wasn't for Mr. Euler -- who wrote almost 70 volumes of mathematics 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and had 13 children 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 who he apparently would dandle on his knee as he was writing -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 if it wasn't for Mr. Euler, there wouldn't perhaps be these invariants. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: OK, so that's at least given us a flavor of that amazing mind in there. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Let's talk about Renaissance. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Because you took that amazing mind and having been a code-cracker at the NSA, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you started to become a code-cracker in the financial industry. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I think you probably didn't buy efficient market theory. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Somehow you found a way of creating astonishing returns over two decades. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 The way it's been explained to me, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 what's remarkable about what you did wasn't just the size of the returns, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 it's that you took them with surprisingly low volatility and risk 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 compared with other hedge funds. So how on earth did you do this, Jim? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: I did it by assembling a wonderful group of people. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 When I started doing trading, I had gotten a little tired of mathematics. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I was in my late 30s. I had a little money. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I started trading and it went very well. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I made quite a lot of money with pure luck. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I mean, I think it was pure luck. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 It certainly wasn't mathematical modeling. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But in looking at the data, after a while I realized: 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 it looks like there's some structure here. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And I hired a few mathematicians, and we started making some models -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 just the kind of thing we did back at IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses]. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 You design an algorithm, you test it out on a computer. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Does it work? Doesn't it work? And so on. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 CA: Can we take a look at this? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Because here's a typical graph of some commodity. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 I look at that, and I say, "That's just a random, up-and-down walk -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 maybe a slight upward trend over that whole period of time." 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 How on earth could you trade, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 looking at that and see something that wasn't just random? 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 JS: In the old days -- this is kind of a graph from the old days, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Not necessarily the very light trend you see here, but trending in periods. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And if you decided, "OK, I'm going to predict today, by the average move 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 in the past 20 days -- there's 20 days -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 maybe that would be a good prediction, and I'd make some money. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 And in fact, years ago such a system would work -- 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 not beautifully, but it would work. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 You'd make money, you'd lose money, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 you'd make money. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 But this is a year's worth of days, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and you'd make a little money during that period.