[Script Info] Title: [Events] Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so, good morning everyone. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'll just get started. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My name is Shailesh and I give these talks Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,almost every year so this is a very deja-vu feeling for me. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The only thing different this time Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the stage is slightly thinner. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But great crowd, great list of talks so far. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, Daniel called me a couple of weeks ago and said Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Why don't you give a keynote again?" Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I said, "You know, I'm running out of things to say now." Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've given four talks at different forums Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with The Fifth Elephant and I wasn't so sure Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what I want to talk about. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, then, one of these days I was talking Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to one of my non-geek friends Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he was very excited about what I do Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so he said, 'What do you do?' Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I, you know, it was on the phone Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I started talking to him about this, that, and the other. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And for about 45 minutes I was rambling Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this guy was very quiet. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I didn't realise he wasn't a techie Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I was going on and on and after 45 minutes I stopped Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and said, "Are you still there? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Are you listening?" Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he said, "Yeah, I'm listening. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Can you tell me what do you do again?"\N(audience laughs) Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then I realized, how do I summarize this in 2 words? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So then I told him, "Hey, I'm building thinking machines." Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's when he said, "Why didn't you say that before? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"It was so easy to say that, right?" Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's how the title came by Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and obviously we're not building thinking machines Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but what I'm going talk about is towards thinking machines, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, we have a long way to go. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I added the word "towards" later. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what I'm gonna talk about is all over the place. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to talk about philosophy, science fiction. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to talk about algorithms Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'm going to talk about, you know, deep learning Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how to think about things beyond deep learning. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And let me give you a perspective and then we'll start. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'll take questions at the end. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Start working this. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All right, so, I ended my last year's talk on this quotation Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I thought I'll start on this quotation this time. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I like this quotation because it puts a lot Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of things into perspective of what we're doing, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how our civilisation got here, and where we're headed. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it says, "Our technology, our machines, is part of our humanity. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"We created them to extend ourselves Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"and that is what is unique about human beings!" Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you look at chairs, and dogs, and animals, and cats Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they don't create machines to extend themselves. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They just have instincts and they follow their instincts. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right, that's very unique about human civilization. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've created Taj Mahal, and space flights, and internet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so we've come a very long way. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you think about the tools, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The cavemen had tools and now we have Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a completely robotic assembly line with no humans Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you could turn the lights off and nothing will happen Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the cars will get produced, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've gone from just on-road, bullock carts, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to massive amounts of transportation that we can do now. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at our ability to look further Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into space, again, since Galileo, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have made a lot of progress. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Recently we saw the news of Pluto flyby Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so now we're able to send satellites into space. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at the first computer we built Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and where we are today, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have a huge data center, and really Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you look at the whole thing in perspective Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have made an enormous amount of progress Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the last so many centuries, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you look just at the technical part Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the IT kind of intelligent machines Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're not talking about mixies Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and other things, just look at what AI Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and deep learning, this stuff, has produced. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today's machines can play chess. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's no human on the planet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who can play chess better than the machine. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to take a pause and think about where we are. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's no human on the planet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who can play chess better than the machine. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's no human on the planet Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who can play Jeopardy better than the machine. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And recently, Google came out with automatic cars Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the machines can drive cars and record show Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that these cars are better than humans under ideal conditions Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they have much less accident rates Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all the accidents happened because of other humans drivers. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're not because of cars. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And recently also saw how machines Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are able to create pictures, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is one of the things Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that deep learning is internally doing. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And now think about all this. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just think about where machines have gone today. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many things they can do Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are way beyond our imagination Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that machines could have done. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So obviously there's a lot they've done. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But can they do the following? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So obviously there's a lot they've done. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So one of the holy grails of AI is to have a machine Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have a conversation with a human being. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We all know the Turing test and the Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,repercussions of this will be huge. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We could think about how we talk to the internet today. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We carefully craft word-for-word queries, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you know, we allow the internet to make mistakes. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We craft queries again, and we take the suggestions or not. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We talk to the internet like we're talking to a three-year-old. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now in the daily needs of massive data computers, NLP Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all its deploying staff, imagine how shameful it is Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to talk to a computer like a 3-year-old. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's got the capacity of thousands of people Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it can't understand language. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we need to change that. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now imagine beyond keywords what can happen. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can do question answering Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but how do we do question answering today? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've created Yahoo Answers, we've created Quora Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where people can type questions Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We do a match between the questions and the answers Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we again do retrieval. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So not answering questions. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now think about conversations.\NConversation is an even more complex thing Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If it works out, what are the\Nrepercussions? I don't want to study Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,physics from my physics teacher. I want to\Nstudy from Einstein or Feynman. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We already know all the language and\Nknowledge of these people. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we not have a persona or a person\NFeynman or Einstein, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and have a conversation with that person,\Nright? So just imagine the future Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what will happen if we're just able to\Nhave conversations with the machines. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there's a long way to go between\Nkeyword search and conversations. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we discover a cure for cancer?\NThere are a lot of diseases out there. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now obviously there is a lot of research\Npharma companies are doing. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a lot of new initiatives on how\Nto use the high end machine learning Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in pharma research. But my contention is\NI believe that the cure for a lot of Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,diseases is already out there. In all the\Nmedical literature, if somebody could Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually read them, hold that knowledge in\Nthe brain, in RAM, and do interconnections Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we should be able to find a lot of things.\NBut what is the problem? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A single human expert, even in one field\Ncannot keep up with that quest of Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knowledge, right. We forget some things,\Nwe want to read certain papers. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And therefore, it's the other problem. \NWe have too much knowledge Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and our individual brains are not\Ncapable of forming those connections Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the - because we can't even read that\Nmany docs, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But machines could do it, the way, and\Nthen there's progress. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we not find cures or new medicine\Ntoo. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can I crack the next IIT Entrance Exam?\NYou laughing today, but you never know. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Five years from now, what will happen?\NWe should hope that if Watson is Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a test of intelligence, if Igloo is a test\Nof intelligence, could this not be Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a test of intelligence.\NThe ability of AI system to be able to Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually solve an IIT paper and get a\Nrank 1. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What about, can I search all the video\Nscenes, which only have a goal shot Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the football videos and nothing else.\NI don't want to watch the rest of it. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A lot of balls going here and there.\NI just want to see the goal shots. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today I cannot do that.\NCan my machines be intelligent enough Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to vision part, to actually find, this is\Na goal, this is a goal, this is a goal - Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the rest of it is something else.\NSo we can imagine the applications now. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were talking about sarcasm a lot and we\Nall understand sarcasm is a very hard Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,thing to do. And imagine if you could\Ndetect sarcasm, what else can you do? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You writing an email to your boss\NYou're angry, you've written Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a sarcastic comment, and ? says,\N'Hey are you sure about this?' Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the heat of the moment, can\NI put it this way? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, like, today we do attachments. Can you\Ndetect sarcasm and things like that. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And to me the holy grail of AI is not\Nreally all these big things, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but a really simple thing. Can a machine\Nfind a joke funny? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now there are a lot of - don't know if you\Nguys watch Star Trek - but data entry Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,300, 400 years from now, is an android who\Nis capable of all these other things. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He's a great supercomputer in human form\Nbut he's still struggling with humans. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's how hard the problem is.\NSo obviously we have a long way to go. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've come a long way and we have a long\Nway to go. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this talk is really about the way\Nforward. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, what do we imagine the future to be?\NWe want something like this. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Golden ?\NWe all want a Jarvis, right? Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who takes care of the chores and gets rid\Nof the whatever and then we all want Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a Jarvis right? So if you watch these\Nmovies again, after watching this talk, Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'll have a very different perspective\Non what we need to do to get here. Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not going to happen just because\Nwe're going to make more and more Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hollywood movies like this.