0:00:00.674,0:00:02.656
So, let me add to the complexity

0:00:02.680,0:00:05.246
of the situation we find ourselves in.

0:00:05.270,0:00:09.596
At the same time that we're solving[br]for climate change,

0:00:09.620,0:00:13.423
we're going to be building cities[br]for three billion people.

0:00:14.577,0:00:17.185
That's a doubling[br]of the urban environment.

0:00:17.907,0:00:19.580
If we don't get that right,

0:00:19.604,0:00:24.135
I'm not sure all the climate solutions[br]in the world will save mankind,

0:00:24.807,0:00:28.582
because so much depends[br]on how we shape our cities:

0:00:28.606,0:00:30.836
not just environmental impacts,

0:00:30.860,0:00:32.496
but our social well-being,

0:00:32.520,0:00:34.802
our economic vitality,

0:00:34.826,0:00:37.625
our sense of community and connectedness.

0:00:38.154,0:00:41.325
Fundamentally, the way we shape cities[br]is a manifestation

0:00:41.349,0:00:44.008
of the kind of humanity we bring to bear.

0:00:44.032,0:00:47.142
And so getting it right is, I think,

0:00:47.166,0:00:48.812
the order of the day.

0:00:48.836,0:00:52.464
And to a certain degree, getting it right[br]can help us solve climate change,

0:00:52.488,0:00:53.640
because in the end,

0:00:53.664,0:00:57.092
it's our behavior that seems[br]to be driving the problem.

0:00:57.116,0:00:58.994
The problem isn't free-floating,

0:00:59.018,0:01:02.924
and it isn't just ExxonMobil[br]and oil companies.

0:01:02.948,0:01:04.661
It's us; how we live.

0:01:06.341,0:01:07.560
How we live.

0:01:08.044,0:01:09.609
There's a villain in this story.

0:01:09.633,0:01:13.146
It's called sprawl,[br]and I'll be upfront about that.

0:01:13.170,0:01:16.955
But it's not just the kind of sprawl[br]you think of, or many people think of,

0:01:16.979,0:01:18.609
as low-density development

0:01:18.633,0:01:21.281
out at the periphery[br]of the metropolitan area.

0:01:22.132,0:01:26.652
Actually, I think sprawl can happen[br]anywhere, at any density.

0:01:27.340,0:01:30.497
The key attribute[br]is that it isolates people.

0:01:31.054,0:01:34.944
It segregates people[br]into economic enclaves

0:01:34.968,0:01:36.560
and land-use enclaves.

0:01:36.584,0:01:38.680
It separates them from nature.

0:01:38.704,0:01:41.858
It doesn't allow the cross-fertilization,

0:01:41.882,0:01:43.146
the interaction,

0:01:43.170,0:01:45.593
that make cities great places

0:01:45.617,0:01:47.863
and that make society thrive.

0:01:48.389,0:01:53.131
So the antidote to sprawl is really[br]what we all need to be thinking about,

0:01:53.155,0:01:57.578
especially when we're taking on[br]this massive construction project.

0:01:58.105,0:02:00.590
So let me take you through one exercise.

0:02:00.614,0:02:04.380
We developed the model[br]for the state of California

0:02:04.404,0:02:07.487
so they could get on[br]with reducing carbon emissions.

0:02:08.046,0:02:13.542
We did a whole series of scenarios[br]for how the state could grow,

0:02:13.566,0:02:16.689
and this is just one[br]overly simplified one.

0:02:16.713,0:02:19.509
We mixed different development prototypes

0:02:19.533,0:02:23.344
and said they're going to carry us[br]through the year 2050,

0:02:23.368,0:02:28.124
10 million new crew[br]in our state of California.

0:02:28.691,0:02:29.943
And one was sprawl.

0:02:29.967,0:02:33.499
It's just more of the same:[br]shopping malls, subdivisions,

0:02:33.523,0:02:34.707
office parks.

0:02:34.731,0:02:38.521
The other one was dominated by,[br]not everybody moving to the city,

0:02:38.545,0:02:40.228
but just compact development,

0:02:40.252,0:02:42.810
what we used to think of[br]as streetcar suburbs,

0:02:42.834,0:02:44.073
walkable neighborhoods,

0:02:44.097,0:02:48.362
low-rise, but integrated,[br]mixed-used environments.

0:02:48.969,0:02:51.405
And the results are astounding.

0:02:51.429,0:02:54.592
They're astounding not just[br]for the scale of the difference

0:02:54.616,0:02:58.851
of this one shift[br]in our city-making habit

0:02:58.875,0:03:03.589
but also because each one represents[br]a special interest group,

0:03:04.233,0:03:08.622
a special interest group[br]that used to advocate for their concerns

0:03:08.646,0:03:09.811
one at a time.

0:03:09.835,0:03:14.934
They did not see the, what I call,[br]"co-benefits" of urban form

0:03:14.958,0:03:17.433
that allows them to join with others.

0:03:17.457,0:03:19.045
So, land consumption:

0:03:19.069,0:03:21.883
environmentalists are really[br]concerned about this,

0:03:21.907,0:03:23.092
so are farmers;

0:03:23.696,0:03:25.918
there's a whole range of people,

0:03:25.942,0:03:29.329
and, of course, neighborhood groups[br]that want open space nearby.

0:03:29.861,0:03:31.947
The sprawl version of California

0:03:31.971,0:03:35.597
almost doubles the urban[br]physical footprint.

0:03:36.429,0:03:39.104
Greenhouse gas: tremendous savings,

0:03:39.128,0:03:43.943
because in California, our biggest[br]carbon emission comes from cars,

0:03:43.967,0:03:47.667
and cities that don't depend[br]on cars as much

0:03:47.691,0:03:50.738
obviously create huge savings.

0:03:51.601,0:03:54.677
Vehicle miles traveled:[br]that's what I was just talking about.

0:03:54.701,0:03:59.686
Just reducing the average 10,000 miles[br]per household per year,

0:03:59.710,0:04:05.040
from somewhere[br]in the mid-26,000 per household,

0:04:05.064,0:04:09.944
has a huge impact[br]not just on air quality and carbon

0:04:09.968,0:04:12.539
but also on the household pocketbook.

0:04:12.563,0:04:15.556
It's very expensive to drive that much,

0:04:15.580,0:04:16.972
and as we've seen,

0:04:16.996,0:04:19.511
the middle class is struggling to hold on.

0:04:20.313,0:04:24.298
Health care: we were talking about[br]how do you fix it once we broke it --

0:04:24.322,0:04:25.481
clean the air.

0:04:25.505,0:04:27.496
Why not just stop polluting?

0:04:27.520,0:04:30.948
Why not just use our feet and bikes more?

0:04:30.972,0:04:34.163
And that's a function of the kinds[br]of cities that we shape.

0:04:35.314,0:04:36.706
Household costs:

0:04:37.243,0:04:39.541
2008 was a mark in time,

0:04:39.565,0:04:43.127
not of just the financial[br]industry running amok.

0:04:43.643,0:04:48.302
It was that we were trying to sell[br]too many of the wrong kind of housing:

0:04:48.326,0:04:51.277
large lot, single family, distant,

0:04:51.301,0:04:55.502
too expensive for the average[br]middle-class family to afford

0:04:55.526,0:04:59.128
and, quite frankly, not a good fit[br]to their lifestyle anymore.

0:04:59.152,0:05:01.068
But in order to move inventory,

0:05:01.466,0:05:04.672
you can discount the financing[br]and get it sold.

0:05:04.696,0:05:06.544
I think that's a lot of what happened.

0:05:06.568,0:05:09.234
Reducing cost by 10,000 dollars --

0:05:09.258,0:05:12.095
remember, in California[br]the median is 50,000 --

0:05:12.119,0:05:14.000
this is a big element.

0:05:14.024,0:05:16.653
That's just cars and utility costs.

0:05:16.677,0:05:20.877
So the affordable housing advocates,[br]who often sit off in their silos

0:05:20.901,0:05:25.365
separate from the environmentalists,[br]separate from the politicians,

0:05:25.389,0:05:27.367
everybody fighting with everyone,

0:05:27.391,0:05:29.309
now begin to see common cause,

0:05:29.333,0:05:32.769
and I think the common cause[br]is what really brings about the change.

0:05:33.837,0:05:36.717
Los Angeles, as a result of these efforts,

0:05:36.741,0:05:39.765
has now decided to transform itself

0:05:39.789,0:05:43.161
into a more transit-oriented environment.

0:05:43.185,0:05:44.919
As a matter of fact, since '08,

0:05:44.943,0:05:48.892
they've voted in 400 billion dollars[br]of bonds for transit

0:05:48.916,0:05:51.765
and zero dollars for new highways.

0:05:51.789,0:05:52.957
What a transformation:

0:05:52.981,0:05:56.312
LA becomes a city of walkers and transit,

0:05:56.336,0:05:57.515
not a city of cars.

0:05:57.539,0:05:58.546
(Applause)

0:05:58.570,0:05:59.770
How does it happen?

0:05:59.794,0:06:01.931
You take the least[br]desirable land, the strip,

0:06:01.955,0:06:04.002
you add where there's space, transit

0:06:04.026,0:06:08.289
and then you infill mixed-use development,

0:06:08.313,0:06:10.496
you satisfy new housing demands

0:06:10.520,0:06:12.511
and you make the existing neighborhoods

0:06:12.535,0:06:14.000
all around it more complex,

0:06:14.024,0:06:15.929
more interesting, more walkable.

0:06:16.840,0:06:19.073
Here's another kind of sprawl:

0:06:19.787,0:06:23.295
China, high-density sprawl,[br]what you think of as an oxymoron,

0:06:23.319,0:06:26.753
but the same problems,[br]everything isolated in superblocks,

0:06:26.777,0:06:30.305
and of course this amazing smog[br]that was just spoken to.

0:06:30.329,0:06:33.558
Twelve percent of GDP[br]in China now is spent

0:06:33.582,0:06:35.779
on the health impacts of that.

0:06:35.803,0:06:39.068
The history, of course,[br]of Chinese cities is robust.

0:06:39.092,0:06:40.344
It's like any other place.

0:06:40.368,0:06:43.380
Community was all about small, local shops

0:06:43.404,0:06:47.547
and local services and walking,[br]interacting with your neighbors.

0:06:47.571,0:06:49.695
It may sound utopian, but it's not.

0:06:49.719,0:06:51.686
It's actually what people really want.

0:06:51.710,0:06:53.257
The new superblocks --

0:06:53.281,0:06:57.201
these are blocks that would have[br]5,000 units in them,

0:06:57.225,0:07:01.037
and they're gated as well,[br]because nobody knows anybody else.

0:07:01.061,0:07:04.561
And of course, there isn't even[br]a sidewalk, no ground floor shops --

0:07:04.585,0:07:06.449
a very sterile environment.

0:07:07.018,0:07:11.634
I found this one case[br]here in one of the superblocks

0:07:11.658,0:07:14.884
where people had illicitly set up[br]shops in their garages

0:07:14.908,0:07:18.606
so that they could have that kind[br]of local service economy.

0:07:18.630,0:07:23.387
The desire of people[br]to get it right is there.

0:07:23.411,0:07:26.699
We just have to get the planners[br]on board and the politicians.

0:07:27.162,0:07:30.969
All right. Some technical planning stuff.

0:07:30.993,0:07:34.166
Chongqing is a city of 30 million people.

0:07:34.190,0:07:36.553
It's almost as big as California.

0:07:36.577,0:07:38.267
This is a small growth area.

0:07:38.291,0:07:41.903
They wanted us to test[br]the alternative to sprawl

0:07:41.927,0:07:44.701
in several cities across China.

0:07:45.072,0:07:48.354
This is for four-and-a-half[br]million people.

0:07:48.378,0:07:50.309
What the takeaway from this image is,

0:07:50.333,0:07:52.982
every one of those circles[br]is a walking radius

0:07:53.006,0:07:54.622
around a transit station --

0:07:55.280,0:07:58.235
massive investment in metro and BRT,

0:07:58.944,0:08:01.276
and a distribution that allows everybody

0:08:01.300,0:08:03.911
to work within walking distance of that.

0:08:03.935,0:08:06.232
The red area, this is a blow-up.

0:08:06.256,0:08:09.413
All of a sudden, our principles[br]called for green space

0:08:09.437,0:08:13.127
preserving the important[br]ecological features.

0:08:13.151,0:08:17.478
And then those other streets in there[br]are auto-free streets.

0:08:17.502,0:08:21.125
So instead of bulldozing,[br]leveling the site

0:08:21.149,0:08:23.212
and building right up to the river,

0:08:23.236,0:08:27.460
this green edge was something[br]that really wasn't normative in China

0:08:27.484,0:08:30.055
until these set of practices

0:08:30.079,0:08:32.633
began experimentation there.

0:08:33.063,0:08:35.018
The urban fabric, small blocks,

0:08:35.042,0:08:37.658
maybe 500 families per block.

0:08:37.682,0:08:38.951
They know each other.

0:08:38.975,0:08:41.338
The street perimeter has shops

0:08:41.362,0:08:43.284
so there's local destinations.

0:08:43.308,0:08:45.663
And the streets themselves become smaller,

0:08:45.687,0:08:47.217
because there are more of them.

0:08:47.241,0:08:48.792
Very simple,

0:08:48.816,0:08:51.371
straightforward urban design.

0:08:51.395,0:08:54.605
Now, here you have something[br]I dearly love.

0:08:54.629,0:08:55.903
Think of the logic.

0:08:56.352,0:08:58.499
If only a third of the people have cars,

0:08:58.523,0:09:02.287
why do we give 100 percent[br]of our streets to cars?

0:09:02.928,0:09:06.107
What if we gave 70 percent of the streets

0:09:06.131,0:09:08.306
to car-free, to everybody else,

0:09:08.330,0:09:10.575
so that the transit[br]could move well for them,

0:09:10.599,0:09:12.924
so that they could walk,[br]so they could bike?

0:09:12.948,0:09:14.346
Why not have --

0:09:14.370,0:09:15.823
(Applause)

0:09:15.847,0:09:18.000
geographic equity

0:09:18.024,0:09:20.395
in our circulation system?

0:09:20.698,0:09:24.091
And quite frankly,[br]cities would function better.

0:09:24.480,0:09:25.770
No matter what they do,

0:09:25.794,0:09:28.224
no matter how many ring roads[br]they build in Beijing,

0:09:28.248,0:09:31.176
they just can't overcome[br]complete gridlock.

0:09:31.200,0:09:34.888
So this is an auto-free street,[br]mixed use along the edge.

0:09:35.666,0:09:37.525
It has transit running down the middle.

0:09:37.549,0:09:40.653
I'm happy to make that transit[br]autonomous vehicles,

0:09:40.677,0:09:43.587
but maybe I'll have a chance[br]to talk about that later.

0:09:43.611,0:09:47.334
So there are seven principles[br]that have now been adopted

0:09:47.358,0:09:50.058
by the highest levels[br]in the Chinese government,

0:09:50.082,0:09:51.877
and they're moving to implement them.

0:09:51.901,0:09:53.063
And they're simple,

0:09:53.087,0:09:55.700
and they are globally,[br]I think, universal principles.

0:09:55.724,0:09:59.377
One is to preserve[br]the natural environment, the history

0:09:59.401,0:10:01.368
and the critical agriculture.

0:10:02.306,0:10:03.629
Second is mix.

0:10:03.653,0:10:06.170
Mixed use is popular,[br]but when I say mixed,

0:10:06.194,0:10:08.633
I mean mixed incomes, mixed age groups,

0:10:08.657,0:10:11.149
as well as mixed-land use.

0:10:12.190,0:10:13.344
Walk.

0:10:13.368,0:10:16.388
There's no great city[br]that you don't enjoy walking in.

0:10:16.412,0:10:17.730
You don't go there.

0:10:17.754,0:10:20.306
The places you go on vacation[br]are places you can walk.

0:10:20.330,0:10:22.092
Why not make it everywhere?

0:10:22.561,0:10:26.133
Bike is the most efficient[br]means of transportation we know.

0:10:26.506,0:10:30.254
China has now adopted policies[br]that put six meters of bike lane

0:10:30.278,0:10:31.607
on every street.

0:10:31.631,0:10:35.573
They're serious about getting back[br]to their biking history.

0:10:35.597,0:10:37.053
(Applause)

0:10:37.077,0:10:39.380
Complicated planner you see here.

0:10:39.404,0:10:40.733
Connect.

0:10:40.757,0:10:44.269
It's a street network[br]that allows many routes

0:10:44.293,0:10:46.104
instead of singular routes,

0:10:46.128,0:10:49.675
and provides many kinds of streets[br]instead of just one.

0:10:50.752,0:10:52.096
Ride.

0:10:52.120,0:10:54.430
We have to invest more in transit.

0:10:54.454,0:10:56.229
There's no silver bullet.

0:10:56.253,0:10:59.317
Autonomous vehicles are not[br]going to solve this for us.

0:10:59.341,0:11:04.507
As a matter of fact, they're going[br]to generate more traffic, more VMT,

0:11:04.531,0:11:05.893
than the alternative.

0:11:05.917,0:11:07.131
And focus.

0:11:07.155,0:11:11.311
We have a hierarchy of the city[br]based on transit,

0:11:11.335,0:11:14.498
rather than the old armature of freeways.

0:11:14.522,0:11:16.672
It's a big paradigm shift,

0:11:17.245,0:11:19.912
but those two things[br]have to get reconnected

0:11:19.936,0:11:24.456
in ways that really shape[br]the structure of the city.

0:11:25.443,0:11:27.676
So I'm very hopeful.

0:11:27.700,0:11:32.473
In California, the United States, China --[br]these changes are well accepted.

0:11:32.497,0:11:35.132
I'm hopeful for two reasons.

0:11:35.156,0:11:37.235
One is, most people get it.

0:11:37.259,0:11:39.141
They understand intrinsically

0:11:39.165,0:11:41.807
what a great city can and should be.

0:11:41.831,0:11:46.672
The second is that the kind of analysis[br]we can bring to bear now

0:11:46.696,0:11:49.424
allows people to connect the dots,

0:11:49.936,0:11:52.905
allows people to shape[br]political coalitions

0:11:52.929,0:11:54.358
that didn't exist in the past.

0:11:54.719,0:11:58.459
That allows them to bring into being[br]the kinds of communities we all need.

0:11:58.483,0:11:59.672
Thank you.

0:11:59.696,0:12:06.273
(Applause)

0:12:08.018,0:12:11.455
Chris Anderson: So, OK:[br]autonomous driving, self-driving cars.

0:12:11.479,0:12:14.824
A lot of people here[br]are very excited about them.

0:12:15.443,0:12:18.402
What are your concerns[br]or issues about them?

0:12:18.426,0:12:21.568
Peter Calthorpe: Well, I think[br]there's almost too much hype here.

0:12:21.592,0:12:25.166
First is, everybody says[br]we're going to get rid of a lot of cars.

0:12:25.190,0:12:28.484
What they don't say is you're going[br]to get a lot more vehicle miles.

0:12:28.508,0:12:31.055
You're going to get a lot more[br]cars moving on streets.

0:12:31.079,0:12:32.948
There will be more congestion.

0:12:32.972,0:12:35.280
CA: Because they're so appealing --

0:12:35.304,0:12:37.358
you can drive while reading or sleeping.

0:12:37.382,0:12:38.879
PC: Well, a couple of reasons.

0:12:38.903,0:12:42.874
One is, if they're privately owned,[br]people will travel greater distances.

0:12:42.898,0:12:44.839
It'll be a new lease on life to sprawl.

0:12:44.863,0:12:46.878
If you can work on your way to work,

0:12:46.902,0:12:48.969
you can live in more remote locations.

0:12:48.993,0:12:51.535
It'll revitalize sprawl

0:12:51.559,0:12:53.892
in a way that I'm deeply frightened.

0:12:53.916,0:12:55.770
Taxis:

0:12:55.794,0:12:59.542
about 50 percent of the surveys say[br]that people won't share them.

0:12:59.566,0:13:00.940
If they don't share them,

0:13:00.964,0:13:06.161
you can end up with a 90 percent[br]increase in vehicle miles traveled.

0:13:06.597,0:13:07.918
If you share them,

0:13:07.942,0:13:11.472
you're still at around[br]a 30 percent increase in VMT.

0:13:11.496,0:13:14.534
CA: Sharing them, meaning[br]having multiple people riding at once

0:13:14.558,0:13:16.534
in some sort of intelligent ride-sharing?

0:13:16.558,0:13:19.089
PC: Yeah, so the Uber share[br]without a steering wheel.

0:13:19.113,0:13:22.962
The reality is, the efficiency[br]of vehicles -- you can do it

0:13:22.986,0:13:25.477
with or without a steering wheel,[br]it doesn't matter.

0:13:25.501,0:13:28.994
They claim they're the only ones[br]that are going to be efficient electric,

0:13:29.018,0:13:30.172
but that's not true.

0:13:30.196,0:13:33.766
But the real bottom line[br]is that walking, biking and transit

0:13:33.790,0:13:36.954
are the way cities and communities thrive.

0:13:36.978,0:13:39.785
And putting people[br]in their private bubbles,

0:13:39.809,0:13:42.106
whether they have a steering wheel or not,

0:13:42.130,0:13:43.701
is the wrong direction.

0:13:43.725,0:13:44.876
And quite frankly,

0:13:44.900,0:13:50.579
the image of an AV on its way[br]to McDonald's to pick up a pack

0:13:50.603,0:13:52.287
without its owner,

0:13:52.311,0:13:56.021
just being sent off on these[br]kind of random errands

0:13:56.045,0:13:57.442
is really frightening to me.

0:13:57.466,0:14:00.824
CA: Well, thank you for that,[br]and I have to say, the images you showed

0:14:00.848,0:14:04.024
of those mixed-use streets[br]were really inspiring, really beautiful.

0:14:04.048,0:14:06.207
PC: Thank you.[br]CA: Thank you for your work.

0:14:06.231,0:14:07.690
(Applause)