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So let me add to the complexity

2
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of the situation we find ourselves in.

3
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At the same time that we're
solving for climate change,

4
00:00:09,807 --> 00:00:11,649
we're going to be building cities

5
00:00:11,649 --> 00:00:14,784
for three billion people.

6
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That's a doubling
of the urban environment.

7
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If we don't get that right,

8
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I'm not sure all the climate solutions

9
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in the world will save mankind,

10
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because so much depends
on how we shape our cities,

11
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not just environmental impacts,

12
00:00:31,083 --> 00:00:32,742
but our social well beling,

13
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our economic vitality,

14
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our sense of community and connectedness.

15
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Fundamentally, the way we shape cities

16
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is a manifestation of the kind
of humanity we bring to bear,

17
00:00:44,260 --> 00:00:47,166
and so getting it right is, I think,

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00:00:47,166 --> 00:00:49,472
the order of the day.

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00:00:49,472 --> 00:00:52,500
And to a certain degree, getting it right
can help us solve climate change,

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because in the end, it's our behavior

21
00:00:55,022 --> 00:00:57,243
that seems to be driving the problem.

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The problem isn't free-floating,

23
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and it isn't just ExxonMobil

24
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and oil companies,

25
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it's us,

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how we live,

27
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how we live.

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There's a villain in this story.

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It's called sprawl,

30
00:01:11,604 --> 00:01:13,326
and I'll be up front about that,

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but it's not just the kind of sprawl
you think of or many people think of

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as low-density development

33
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out the periphery
of the metropolitan area.

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Actually, I think that sprawl
can happen anywhere

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at any density.

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The key attribute
is that it isolates people.

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It segregates people
into economic enclaves

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and land use enclaves.

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It separates them from nature.

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It doesn't allow the cross-fertilization,

41
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the interaction
that make cities great places

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and that make society thrive.

43
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And so the antidote to sprawl is really
what we'll need to be thinking about,

44
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especially when we're taking on
this massive construction project.

45
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So let me take you through one exercise.

46
00:02:01,302 --> 00:02:01,552
We did this --

47
00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,058
We developed the model
for the state of California

48
00:02:06,058 --> 00:02:07,582
so they could get on with reducing

49
00:02:07,582 --> 00:02:08,562
carbon emissions.

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00:02:08,562 --> 00:02:11,768
We did a whole series of scenarios

51
00:02:11,768 --> 00:02:13,669
for how the state could grow,

52
00:02:13,669 --> 00:02:16,867
and this is just one
overly simplified one.

53
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We mixed different development prototypes

54
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and said they're going to carry us

55
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through the year 2050,

56
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10 million new crew

57
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in our state of California.

58
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And one was sprawl.

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It's just more of the same:

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shopping malls, subdivisions,

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office parks.

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The other one was dominated

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by not everybody moving to the city

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but just compact development,

65
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what we used to think of
as streetcar suburbs,

66
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walkable neighborhoods,

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low-rise

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but integrated, mixed-used environments.

69
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And the results are astounding.

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They're astounding not just
for the scale of the difference

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of this one shift in our
city-making habit,

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but also because each one represents

73
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a special interest group,

74
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a special interest group that used
to advocate for their concerns

75
00:03:08,265 --> 00:03:09,920
one at a time.

76
00:03:09,920 --> 00:03:13,593
They did not see what I call co-benefits

77
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of urban form

78
00:03:15,365 --> 00:03:17,775
that allows them to join with others.

79
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So land consumption.

80
00:03:19,386 --> 00:03:22,449
Environmentalists are really
concerned about this.

81
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So are farmers.

82
00:03:23,624 --> 00:03:26,037
There's a whole range of people,

83
00:03:26,037 --> 00:03:29,534
and of course neighborhood groups
that want open space nearby.

84
00:03:29,534 --> 00:03:32,541
The sprawl version of California,

85
00:03:32,541 --> 00:03:36,675
it almost doubles the urban,
the physical footprint.

86
00:03:36,675 --> 00:03:38,021
Greenhouse gas,

87
00:03:38,021 --> 00:03:39,609
tremendous savings

88
00:03:39,609 --> 00:03:41,301
because, in California,

89
00:03:41,301 --> 00:03:44,212
our biggest carbon emission
comes from cars,

90
00:03:44,212 --> 00:03:47,935
and cities that don't
depend on cars as much

91
00:03:47,935 --> 00:03:51,705
obviously create huge savings.

92
00:03:51,705 --> 00:03:53,990
Vehicle miles traveled.

93
00:03:53,990 --> 00:03:54,858
That's what I was just talking about.

94
00:03:54,858 --> 00:03:59,866
Just reducing the average 10,000 miles
per household per year

95
00:03:59,866 --> 00:04:05,064
from somewhere in the mid
26,000 per household

96
00:04:05,064 --> 00:04:08,426
has a huge impact not just on air quality

97
00:04:08,426 --> 00:04:10,115
and carbon

98
00:04:10,115 --> 00:04:12,844
but also on the household pocketbook.

99
00:04:12,844 --> 00:04:14,588
It's very expensive to drive that much,

100
00:04:14,588 --> 00:04:17,082
and as we've seen,

101
00:04:17,082 --> 00:04:18,964
the middle class is struggling to hold on.

102
00:04:18,964 --> 00:04:21,329
Health care.

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00:04:21,329 --> 00:04:24,646
Well you know, we were
talking about how do you fix it

104
00:04:24,646 --> 00:04:25,359
once we broke it,

105
00:04:25,359 --> 00:04:26,320
clean the air.

106
00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:27,715
Why not just stop polluting?

107
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Why not just use our feet

108
00:04:30,172 --> 00:04:31,199
and bikes more?

109
00:04:31,199 --> 00:04:35,378
And that's a function of the kinds
of cities that we shape.

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Household costs.

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00:04:36,927 --> 00:04:39,795
2008 was a mark in time,

112
00:04:39,795 --> 00:04:43,381
not of just financial
industry running amok.

113
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It was that we were trying to sell
too many of the wrong kind of housing:

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large lot, single family, distant,

115
00:04:50,527 --> 00:04:52,801
too expensive for the average
middle class family to afford,

116
00:04:52,801 --> 00:04:59,526
and quite frankly not a good fit
to their lifestyle anymore.

117
00:04:59,526 --> 00:05:01,466
But in order to move inventory,

118
00:05:01,466 --> 00:05:04,867
you can discount the financing
and get it sold.

119
00:05:04,867 --> 00:05:06,738
I think that's a lot of what happened.

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00:05:06,738 --> 00:05:09,696
Reducing cost by 10,000 dollars --

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00:05:09,696 --> 00:05:11,133
remember, in California
the median is 50,000 --

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this is a big element.

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00:05:14,024 --> 00:05:16,677
That's just cars and utility costs.

124
00:05:16,677 --> 00:05:18,628
So the affordable housing advocates,

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who often sit off in their silo

126
00:05:21,066 --> 00:05:23,209
separate from the environmentalists,

127
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separate from the politicians,

128
00:05:25,747 --> 00:05:27,361
everybody fighting with everybody,

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00:05:27,361 --> 00:05:29,599
now begin to see common cause,

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00:05:29,599 --> 00:05:33,837
and I think the common cause
is what really brings about the change.

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Los Angeles,

132
00:05:35,276 --> 00:05:36,944
as a result of these efforts,

133
00:05:36,944 --> 00:05:39,789
has now decided to transform itself

134
00:05:39,789 --> 00:05:43,311
into a more transit-oriented environment.

135
00:05:43,311 --> 00:05:45,943
As a matter of fact, since '08,

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they voted in 400 billion dollars
of bonds for transit

137
00:05:48,775 --> 00:05:51,962
and zero dollars for new highways.

138
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What a transformation:

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00:05:53,153 --> 00:05:56,255
LA becomes a city of walkers and transit,

140
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not a city of cars.

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00:05:57,469 --> 00:05:58,315
(Applause)

142
00:05:58,315 --> 00:05:59,488
How does it happen?

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00:05:59,488 --> 00:06:02,022
You take the least
desirable land, the strip.

144
00:06:02,022 --> 00:06:04,224
You add where there's space, transit,

145
00:06:04,224 --> 00:06:08,313
and then you infill mixed use development,

146
00:06:08,313 --> 00:06:10,606
you satisfy new housing demands,

147
00:06:10,606 --> 00:06:12,991
and you make the existing neighborhoods

148
00:06:12,991 --> 00:06:14,312
all around it more complex,

149
00:06:14,312 --> 00:06:16,840
more interesting, more walkable.

150
00:06:16,840 --> 00:06:19,588
Okay. Here's another kind of sprawl:

151
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China, high density sprawl,

152
00:06:22,068 --> 00:06:24,355
what you think of as an oxymoron,
but the same problems,

153
00:06:24,355 --> 00:06:27,054
everything isolated in superblocks,

154
00:06:27,054 --> 00:06:30,605
and of course this amazing smog
that was just spoken to.

155
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Twelve percent of GDP in China now
is spent on the health impacts of that.

156
00:06:36,130 --> 00:06:38,187
The history, of course,
of Chinese cities is robust.

157
00:06:38,187 --> 00:06:40,306
It's like any other place.

158
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Community was all about
small, local shops and local services

159
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and walking,

160
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interacting with your neighbors.

161
00:06:47,571 --> 00:06:49,824
It may sound utopian, but it's not.

162
00:06:49,824 --> 00:06:51,814
It's actually what people really want.

163
00:06:51,814 --> 00:06:53,509
The new superblocks,

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00:06:53,509 --> 00:06:57,452
these are blocks that would have
5,000 units in them,

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and they're gated as well,
because nobody knows anybody else.

166
00:07:01,316 --> 00:07:03,545
And of course, there
isn't even a sidewalk,

167
00:07:03,545 --> 00:07:06,995
no ground floor shops,
a very sterile environment.

168
00:07:06,995 --> 00:07:10,280
I found this one case

169
00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:11,817
here in one of the superblocks

170
00:07:11,817 --> 00:07:15,066
where people had illicitly set up
shops in their garages

171
00:07:15,066 --> 00:07:19,132
so that they could have that kind
of local service economy.

172
00:07:19,132 --> 00:07:23,411
The desire of people
to get it right is there.

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00:07:23,411 --> 00:07:27,361
We just have to get the planners
on board and the politicians.

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All right.

175
00:07:28,118 --> 00:07:31,150
Some technical planning stuff.

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00:07:31,150 --> 00:07:34,189
Xianching is a city of 30 million people.

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It's almost as big as California.

178
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This is a small growth area.

179
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They wanted us to test
the alternative to sprawl

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00:07:42,187 --> 00:07:45,277
in several cities across China.

181
00:07:45,277 --> 00:07:48,378
This is for four
and a half million people.

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The takeaway from this image is

183
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every one of those circles

184
00:07:51,798 --> 00:07:55,280
is a walking radius
around a transit station,

185
00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:59,024
massive investment in metro and BRT

186
00:07:59,024 --> 00:08:01,379
and a distribution that allows everybody

187
00:08:01,379 --> 00:08:04,321
to work within walking distance of that.

188
00:08:04,321 --> 00:08:06,447
The red area, this is a blow-up.

189
00:08:06,447 --> 00:08:09,627
All of a sudden, our principles
called for green space

190
00:08:09,627 --> 00:08:13,558
preserving the important
ecological features.

191
00:08:13,558 --> 00:08:15,743
And then those other streets in there

192
00:08:15,743 --> 00:08:17,614
are auto-free streets.

193
00:08:17,614 --> 00:08:21,545
So instead of bulldozing,
leveling the site,

194
00:08:21,545 --> 00:08:22,971
and building right up to the river,

195
00:08:22,971 --> 00:08:25,056
this green edge was something

196
00:08:25,056 --> 00:08:27,484
that really wasn't normative in China

197
00:08:27,484 --> 00:08:29,775
until these set of practices

198
00:08:29,775 --> 00:08:33,294
began experimentation there.

199
00:08:33,294 --> 00:08:35,272
The urban fabric, small blocks,

200
00:08:35,272 --> 00:08:37,911
maybe 500 families per block.

201
00:08:37,911 --> 00:08:39,311
They know each other.

202
00:08:39,311 --> 00:08:41,521
The street perimeter has shops

203
00:08:41,521 --> 00:08:43,466
so there's local destinations.

204
00:08:43,466 --> 00:08:45,687
And the streets themselves become smaller

205
00:08:45,687 --> 00:08:47,539
because there are more of them.

206
00:08:47,539 --> 00:08:49,550
Very simple,

207
00:08:49,550 --> 00:08:51,641
straightforward urban design.

208
00:08:51,641 --> 00:08:54,874
Now here you have something I dearly love.

209
00:08:54,874 --> 00:08:56,172
Think of the logic.

210
00:08:56,172 --> 00:08:58,646
If only a third of the people have cars,

211
00:08:58,646 --> 00:09:03,127
why do we give 100 percent
of our streets to cars?

212
00:09:03,127 --> 00:09:05,865
What if we gave 70 percent of the streets

213
00:09:05,865 --> 00:09:08,485
to car-free, to everybody else,

214
00:09:08,485 --> 00:09:11,027
so that the transit
could move well for them,

215
00:09:11,027 --> 00:09:12,365
so that they could walk,
so they could bike?

216
00:09:12,365 --> 00:09:13,202
(Applause)

217
00:09:13,202 --> 00:09:17,834
Why not have geographic equity

218
00:09:17,834 --> 00:09:21,272
in our circulation system?

219
00:09:21,272 --> 00:09:23,772
And quite frankly,

220
00:09:23,772 --> 00:09:24,986
cities would function better.

221
00:09:24,986 --> 00:09:25,957
No matter what they do,

222
00:09:25,957 --> 00:09:28,237
no matter how many ring roads
they build in Beijing,

223
00:09:28,237 --> 00:09:31,337
they just can't overcome
complete gridlock.

224
00:09:31,337 --> 00:09:34,926
So this is an auto-free street,

225
00:09:34,926 --> 00:09:35,952
mixed use along the edge.

226
00:09:35,952 --> 00:09:37,630
It has transit running down the middle.

227
00:09:37,630 --> 00:09:40,884
I'm happy to make that transit
autonomous vehicles,

228
00:09:40,884 --> 00:09:43,817
but maybe I'll have a chance
to talk about that later.

229
00:09:43,817 --> 00:09:47,895
So there are seven principles
that have now been adopted

230
00:09:47,895 --> 00:09:50,618
by the highest levels
in the Chinese government,

231
00:09:50,618 --> 00:09:51,970
and they're moving to implement them.

232
00:09:51,970 --> 00:09:55,924
And they're simple,

233
00:09:55,924 --> 00:09:57,250
and they are globally,
I think, universal principles.

234
00:09:57,250 --> 00:09:58,639
One is to preserve
the natural environment,

235
00:09:58,639 --> 00:10:01,504
the history, and the critical agriculture.

236
00:10:01,504 --> 00:10:03,780
Second is mix.

237
00:10:03,780 --> 00:10:05,274
Mixed use is popular,

238
00:10:05,274 --> 00:10:07,686
but when I say mix, I mean mix incomes,

239
00:10:07,686 --> 00:10:11,596
mix age groups as well as
mixed land use.

240
00:10:11,596 --> 00:10:13,213
Walk.

241
00:10:13,213 --> 00:10:16,100
There's no great city that
you don't enjoy walking in.

242
00:10:16,100 --> 00:10:17,614
You don't go there.

243
00:10:17,614 --> 00:10:20,446
The places you go on vacation
are places you can walk.

244
00:10:20,446 --> 00:10:22,561
Why not make it everywhere?

245
00:10:22,561 --> 00:10:26,044
Bike is the most efficient
means of transportation we know.

246
00:10:26,044 --> 00:10:30,278
China has now adopted policies
that put six meters of bike lane

247
00:10:30,278 --> 00:10:31,793
on every street.

248
00:10:31,793 --> 00:10:35,759
They're serious about getting back
to their biking history.

249
00:10:35,759 --> 00:10:37,238
(Applause)

250
00:10:37,238 --> 00:10:39,564
Complicated planner you see here.

251
00:10:39,564 --> 00:10:40,830
Connect.

252
00:10:40,830 --> 00:10:44,126
It's a street network
that allows many routes

253
00:10:44,126 --> 00:10:46,207
instead of singular routes

254
00:10:46,207 --> 00:10:48,359
and provides many kinds of streets

255
00:10:48,359 --> 00:10:51,308
instead of just one.

256
00:10:51,308 --> 00:10:52,326
Ride.

257
00:10:52,326 --> 00:10:54,659
We have to invest more in transit.

258
00:10:54,659 --> 00:10:56,457
There's no silver bullet.

259
00:10:56,457 --> 00:10:59,341
Autonomous vehicles are not
going to solve this for us.

260
00:10:59,341 --> 00:11:03,659
As a matter of fact, they're going
to generate more traffic,

261
00:11:03,659 --> 00:11:04,769
more VMT

262
00:11:04,769 --> 00:11:06,641
than the alternative.

263
00:11:06,641 --> 00:11:07,422
And focus.

264
00:11:07,422 --> 00:11:10,011
We have a hierarchy of the city

265
00:11:10,011 --> 00:11:12,107
based on transit

266
00:11:12,107 --> 00:11:14,697
rather than the old armiture of freeways.

267
00:11:14,697 --> 00:11:17,695
It's a big paradigm shift,

268
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but those two things have to get
reconnected in ways

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that really shape
the structure of the city.

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So I'm very hopeful.

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In California, in the United States,

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China, these changes are well accepted.

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I'm hopeful for two reasons.

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One is most people get it.

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They understand intrinsically

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what a great city can and should be.

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And the second is

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that the kind of analysis
we can bring to bear now

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allows people to connect the dots,

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allows people to shape
political coalitions

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that didn't exist in the past.

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That allows them to bring into being
the kinds of communities we all need.

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Thank you.

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(Applause)

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Chris Anderson: So okay,
autonomous driving, self-driving cars.

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A lot of people are
very excited about them.

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What are your concerns
or issues about them?

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Peter Calthorpe: Well, you know,
I think there's almost too much hype here.

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First is, everybody says, well
we're going to get rid of a lot of cars.

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What they don't say is you're going
to get a lot more vehicle miles.

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You're going to get a lot more
cars moving on streets.

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There will be more congestion.

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CA: Because they're so appealing,

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you can drive while reading or sleeping.

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PC: Couple reasons. Couple reasons.

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One is, if they're privately owned,

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people will travel greater distances.

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It'll be a new lease on life to sprawl.

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If you can work on your way to work,

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you can live in more remote locations.

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It'll revitalize sprawl

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in a way that I'm deeply frightened.

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Taxis:

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about 50 percent of the surveys

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say that people won't share them.

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If they don't share them,

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you can end up with a 90 percent
increase in vehicle miles traveled.

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If you share them,

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you're still at around 30 percent
increased in VMT.

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CA: Sharing them meaning
having multiple people riding at once

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in some sort of intelligent ride-sharing.

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PC: Yeah, so the Uber share
without a steering wheel.

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The reality is,
the efficiency of vehicles,

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you know, you can do it
with or without a steering wheel.

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It doesn't matter.

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They claim that they're the only ones
that are going to be efficient electric,

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but that's not true.

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But the real bottom line

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is that walking, biking and transit

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are the way cities and communities thrive,

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and putting people
in their private bubbles,

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whether they have a steering wheel or not,

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is the wrong direction.

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And quite frankly,

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the image of an AV
on its way to McDonald's

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to pick up a pack

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without its owner,

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just being sent off on these kinds
of random errands

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is really frightening to me.

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CA: Well thank you for that,
and I have to say the images you showed

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of those mixed use streets,
really inspiring, really beautiful.

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Thank you for your work.

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PC: Thank you.
CA: Thank you.

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(Applause)