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(Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's 
wonderful to be with educators

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who care about the intersection
of learning and technology,

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because that's going to shape the future.

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Whether we're able 
to get this right or not

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will determine whether we have
a glorious 21st century

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or a period of unmitigated risks.

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The walls are coming down everywhere and
it's difficult to not think about this,

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being so close to it, here in Berlin,

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25 years ago, these walls coming down.

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But it's not just about physical walls
coming down,

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it's about mental walls,
it's about financial walls,

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it's about technological walls.

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All the walls are coming down,
and it's that

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which makes this the most exciting century 
in the history of humanity.

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It changes all of our lives
in surprising ways.

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And it's certainly changed mine.

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I was living in Paris 
when this wall came down.

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I didn't imagine that it would touch me
personally.

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I thought it was about Eastern Europe,
about the Cold War, about something else.

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But within 6 months, I would, 
much to my surprise,

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I was invited to have dinner with
President Mandela in Paris.

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He wasn't president then, 
he had just been released from prison.

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But he was released 
because the Cold War ended.

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And the defining feature of this period
we live in, our lives,

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is that what happens elsewhere will
dramatically affect us in new ways.

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It's this change that results 
from the walls coming down.

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And it's this change that will shape
education going forward

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and technological progress.

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And of course, the other fundamental 
period of -- in this time --

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is technology, technology
which got off the ground

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at the same time as the Berlin Wall
came down, over 25 years,

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this exponential growth in
virtual connectivity.

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And now we have a world of 5 billion
literate, educated people

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whereas we had a world, 
only 30 years ago,

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of well less than a billion 
connected people.

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Four billion more literate
connected people in the world,

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and this is the engine of change,

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where the people in the slums of Mumbai,
Soweto, Sao Paulo,

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or in apartments in Berlin,

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they will contribute to change 
in surprising new ways.

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And they're coming together.

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There is a release of individual genius.

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If you believe in the random distribution
of exceptional capabilities, which I do,

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there is just more people out there,
educated, connected, giving, learning.

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But I also believe in collective genius,

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the capabilities of people 
coming together,

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to form teams, 
to learn from each other

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through the methods that 
we heard about this morning.

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and in other ways.

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So new cures for cancer being developed
on 24-hour cycles around the world.

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My lab in Oxford, doing this with people 
in Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto

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and all over, in real time.

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There is no sleep on innovation any more.

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And that's the power, the engine,
which brings change.

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So if you think you've seen 
a lot of change

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be ready for much more surprises.

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This is the slowest time in history
you will know.

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It's going to get faster,
the pace of change greater,

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the surprises more intense.

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It's always going to be

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more and more difficult 
to predict what's next.

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Uncertainty will grow because
the pace of change is growing.

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Because the walls have come down,

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there are two billion more people 
in the world since 1990.

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And that's because ideas have traveled,
simple ideas,

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like washing your hands prevents
contagious diseases;

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really complicated ideas
like those embedded in vaccines

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in new cures for cancer
and many other things.

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Two billion more people coming together,
most of them now urbanized,

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and even those that aren't
physically together,

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virtually together.

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A quite extraordinary moment
in human history,

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one where we've come together
as a community,

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like we were 150,000 years ago,
when we lived in villages together,

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our ancestors in East Africa,
and then dispersed around the world

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and now, reconnected.

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And it's this reconnection, which
I believe, gives us the potential.

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But do we learn from it?

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And are we able to think of ourselves
in new ways,

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because we're connecting in new ways?

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Is this wall coming down changing the way
we are and we think?

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Or do we still think like individualists
in our nation states,

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pursuing our own self-interest
and those of our countries,

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not realizing that now,
we are in a different game?

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Now we're in a game in which
we have to cooperate,

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where we have to think about others,

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where our actions, for the first time,
spill over in dramatic new ways

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and affect people 
on the other side of the planet.

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This pace of education means that 
not only are we liberating ourselves,

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but we're liberating people from
all sorts of past habits.

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And this change is leading 
to quick changes in social norms.

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Acceptance of gay marriage 
is one of those,

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but there'll be many, many, many others.

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And so, what we think about 
as normal today

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will seem very strange 
in a few years' time:

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this pace of change driven by education,

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more doctorates being created 
in China now

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than in the rest of the world 
put together every year,

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more scientists alive today

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than all the scientists 
that ever lived in history,

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more literate people alive today

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than all the literate people 
that ever lived in history.

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This is the engine of change.

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But it's not simply about 
more and more progress.

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It's not simply that we know

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that this is going to get 
better and better.

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It's about what's next.

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We don't know what the future holds.

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We live in this extraordinary moment 
of our lives

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where we've seen exponential growth
in incomes: that's red.

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And we seen this most rapid 
increase in populations,

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and income growth, even more rapid
than population growth, which is why

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people have escaped poverty at a pace
that has never happened in history.

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Despite the world's population increasing
by two billion over the last 25 years,

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the number of desperately poor people
has gone down by about 300 million.

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This has never happened before.

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This is an incredible time, by far 
the best time to be alive.

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Just while you're here, your average 
life expectancy should increase

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by about 10 hours.

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That's the pace of progress:

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what you're learning,
and what's happening in the labs.

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And it's that which makes me 
incredibly optimistic.

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This is the age of discovery,
this is the new Renaissance.

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This is a period of creativity
and technological change

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which hasn't been seen for 500 years.

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This is from my stem cell lab
in the Oxford Martin School:

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the lab technician's skin
turned into a heart cell.

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And this is one of the 
extraordinary things that's happening

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that makes one so excited 
about the future.

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A future of rising life expectancy,
so children being born today

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in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,
will have life expectancies well over 100,

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and not having to worry about the things
that I worry about,

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like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia.

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But what skills are they learning today
that will help them shape this future,

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prepare for it, and will still be relevant
in a hundred years time?

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It's those skills that you have 
the responsibility to help shape.

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We can imagine this glorious future,
an extraordinary time in human history.

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But we can also realize

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that it could come very, very badly
at stuck.

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I looked at the Renaissance 
for inspiration

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to try and understand how people
interpreted these choices.

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That was a period of 
creative exceptionalism,

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scientific exceptionalism.

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And we think today of the iconic figures,
the Michelangelos, the Da Vincis,

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the Copernicuses,

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discovering the earth went round the sun,
not the other way round,

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fundamentally changing our understanding
of ourselves in the universe

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in ways that will happen 
in our lifetimes.

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Fundamental changes 
which lead to Humanism,

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Enlightenment and many, 
many other things,

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spurred by technologies.

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Then, it was the Gutenberg press.

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Simple ideas travel very rapidly.

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Until then only monks 
could read and write,

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in Latin, in their monasteries.

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Less than half of 1% of the world
was literate.

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There was nothing to read 
-- and it was in Latin.

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And then, this invention lead
to a whole new way of thinking.

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Ideas traveled, people could learn
in their own languages,

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and we had the Renaissance.

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We also had the development 
of nationalism

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because people could identify.

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and of course, massive 
technological push-back.

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The Bonfire of the Vanities, 
the burning of books,

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not far from here and across Europe.

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Destruction of presses,
religious fundamentalism,

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extremism,
religious wars for 150 years.

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Now if you recall those curves I put up,

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of the long trajectory of income growth
and population growth,

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but the Renaissance did not figure.

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It was a non-event, 
it lead to no improvements

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in people's welfare in Europe or beyond.

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Are we different?

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Can we embrace our technologies in ways
that lead to sustained progress?

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And there are two things I worry about
in this respect.

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First, while the walls have gone down
between societies,

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within societies, 
the walls are going up everywhere.

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All countries are experiencing 
rising inequality.

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Why is this?

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It's because the pace of progress 
is so fast at the frontier

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that this process of integration
-- some call it globalization --

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has led to such rapid change
that if you aren't on the frontier,

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if you don't have the skills, 
the mobility, the attitude to change,

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to adapt, to grab new things,
you're left further and further behind.

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If you're in the wrong place, 
with the wrong skills at the wrong time,

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or you're too old,
you're left further and further behind.

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And so we see in all societies 
rising inequality.

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And some people have been able to capture
the goods of globalization.

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They've been able to park their money,

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whether they are a corporation 
in Bermuda or somewhere,

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or an individual in Monaco 
or Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.

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And so governments are becoming 
less and less able

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to tax their citizens 
and tax their corporates

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and less able to fund education,
health, infrastructure,

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and the other things we need.

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And the second big problem
of this integration process

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is when things connect.

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Unfortunately,
not only good stuff connects.

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Rarely, bad stuff connects too.

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And so the question is how do we have 
this complex, dense, intertwined system

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without becoming overwhelmed by it?

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Are we able to manage
our interdependencies

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in ways that will be sustained
and benefit us,

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or will they overwhelm us?

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And this is both the intended
consequences which lead

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to unintended bads.

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Our intended consequence of using
more antibiotics around the world

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leading to antibiotic resistance.

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Or as our energy growth grows
around the world

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because people are escaping poverty,
leading to climate change.

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Or as our resource use increases
because people are consuming more food,

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leading to resource depletion.

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And the unintended consequences,
banks which spread around the globe

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becoming centers of cascading risk
and financial crisis.

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Airports spreading pandemics, what I call
the butterfly defect of globalization.

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The spreading of risk is not a new idea.

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We think in England that a rat coming
off a ship in Liverpool

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might have killed half the British
population in the Black Death.

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Early globalization leading 
to systemic risk.

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But what's new is the pace
and scale of the change.

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So the swine flu that starts 
in Mexico City

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in 160 countries in thirty days.

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And the emerging infections group
in the Oxford Martin School

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has modeled spread of this
with airline traffic

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and shown it exactly replicates.

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So the super-spreaders of the good
of globalization

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like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt, 
and other great airports

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become the super-spreaders of the bads,
in this case, pandemics.

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And in the cybersphere, of course,
we see this dramatically,

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that anything can be instantaneously
elsewhere, be it good or be it bad.

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In finance, we've seen a dramatic 
indication of this,

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this collapsing system starting 
from a subprime crisis in the US

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leading to 100 million people laid off
in work from work around the world.

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So what happens somewhere
dramatically affecting people

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on the other side of the world
in the same way that my life

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was shaped, but sometimes
with disastrous consequences.

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And what the financial system also teaches
us is the rising power of individuals.

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These new technologies give individuals
simply unprecedented powers.

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Barings Bank had existed for 200 years.

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99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It had withstood the most amazing
technological, political, and other changes,

241
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and one young man, Nick Leeson, 
having some fun, a bit of trading,

242
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
managed to bring it down.

243
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And the same thing almost happened
in Societe Generale with Jerome Kerviel,

244
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
JP Morgan, UBS, and many others.

245
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
We see that these individuals
now have power in new ways.

246
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And of course, individuals can also
in new ways, develop biopathogens

247
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
using a DNA sequencing which
is going down exponentially in price,

248
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
a single individual now
can build something using

249
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
a technology like a drone to distribute
it, and kill perhaps tens,

250
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
if not hundreds of millions of people.

251
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
This new capability, this new power
of individuals has changed

252
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
so that nation states are becoming
less and less powerful

253
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
relative to the power of individuals.

254
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And there are seven billion of us
growing to nine billion

255
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
over the next 35 years.

256
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Within the cybersphere,
we see this dramatically,

257
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
how small groups can cause mayhem,
steal all our records,

258
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
open our bank accounts,

259
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
They'll be opening our front door locks,
controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle

260
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
communication, etc.

261
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Understanding how we build systems
which liberate us, and yet

262
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
we do not become slaves 
or vulnerable to, is the central question.

263
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Can we create interdependent systems
where we are in control,

264
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and what does that mean?

265
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And that education process requires
a new understanding of responsibility.

266
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
As these technologies pervade into
our bodies and everything we do,

267
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
it becomes more and more important.

268
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Trust, integrity, judgment, 
these old things become more

269
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and more important.

270
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
The financial crisis was characterized
by a number of remarkable things.

271
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Over 250,000 extremely well-paid
people in the central banks of the world

272
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
in the IMF and other institutions
with this enormous amount of data

273
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
do not see it coming.

274
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Too much data, too little integrity.

275
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And as machines begin to take our jobs

276
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
-- and one of my groups in the Oxford
Martin School has said that 47% of US jobs

277
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
will be lost to machine intelligence
over the next 20 years --

278
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
people will increasingly see
machine intelligence as a threat

279
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
not only to their bank accounts
and other systems,

280
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
but to their jobs and their careers.

281
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And so, how do we create education
systems where we are not vulnerable

282
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to automation taking our jobs? (16:33)

283
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And the answer is, we need to do things
which are not automatable.

284
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
What does that mean?

285
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It means creativity, dexterity, 
empathy, judgment

286
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and that's what will keep us 
different from machines

287
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
for at least the next 50 years.

288
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
So, creating an environment where 
machines complement our abilities,

289
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
help us, do many of the things

290
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
that are really, in many ways, 
inhumane for people to be doing,

291
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
dangerous and others;

292
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
help us be more effective, 
but don't supplant us.

293
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Being in Germany, we're reminded always

294
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
that it's not that technologies exist
that people decide to adopt them.

295
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It's society's attitude.

296
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Germany has banned nuclear power,
It has banned GMOs.

297
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Many other places 
embrace these technologies.

298
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It's what we feel about these technologies
that matters.

299
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It's how we feel we can control them,
whether we feel that we're on top,

300
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
which will shape the way 
that societies adopt them.

301
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And so, in education, it seems 
absolutely vital that we understand them.

302
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
People need to understand
what genetic modification is.

303
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
People need to understand
what DNA sequencing is.

304
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
People need to understand these new, 
extremely powerful technologies,

305
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
which will change the way we are
and the choices we face going forward.

306
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
There will be societal choices:
do we want to create superhumans, or not?

307
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And if others do it, 
what is our attitude to that?

308
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
These are choices that we will face,
let alone the next generation.

309
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
So this handshake, 
this understanding of technology,

310
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
the literacy becomes 
more and more important,

311
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
as well as the interconnectivity.

312
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
As we will become wealthier,
as we will become more connected,

313
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
the spillovers of our choices
get stronger and stronger.

314
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And we see this in many, many areas.
We see --

315
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
-- sorry, I just want to go back to the 
slide before with the video, if I may --

316
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(people arguing animatedly around
a big tuna in Japanese, then clapping)

317
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Goldin) This is the tuna market in Tokyo.

318
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
This tuna was sold for about 1.5 million Euro.

319
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
This the market's response to the scarcity
of a natural resource.

320
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
The price goes up, the tuna don't know
how much they're worth, of course.

321
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
They don't reproduce more 
when they're worth more.

322
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Hi-tech fishermen go and chase
the remaining tuna

323
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and you get extinction.

324
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And the same thing, of course, with rhino
and any natural resource.

325
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Natural resources don't understand 
markets.

326
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
they are irrelevant to them.

327
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and so, as we go forward and we have
a market system which determines choice,

328
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
on the one hand,

329
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and more and more people 
with more wealth

330
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
are claiming resources 
through this system.

331
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
But on the other hand, we have 
the supply of natural resources,

332
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
determined in totally different ways,

333
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
we have a very serious problem 
of extinction.

334
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Governments are not 
very smart at this either.

335
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Thinking short term, 
they extract resource,

336
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
often for the good of their people,

337
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
but collectively, in the long term, 
a disaster.

338
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
This is the Aral Sea.

339
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Peop-- countries, six countries
doing the right thing,

340
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
drawing water to feed their people.

341
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Collectively, a disaster.

342
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
The examples of success 
-- and the Mediterranean is one --

343
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
where citizens, scientists, politicians,
civil society movements came together

344
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and saved this.

345
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And with climate change, of course,
we have this dramatic problem.

346
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
What's happening in Paris this week
is of huge significance

347
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to the future of the planet.

348
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
But it's not enough;
we need to do much more.

349
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And we need to do it in a way 
that allows people around the world

350
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to benefit from the things that we have.

351
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
We've created 90% of the problem
in the rich countries

352
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
but 80%, already 70% of the flows, (check)
growing to 80 over the next 15 years,

353
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
will be coming from emerging markets.

354
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
So how do we let the rest of the world
clime the energy curve,

355
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
while ensuring we keep global warming
to below 2 degrees?

356
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
These collective decisions, increasingly,
will shape the way that the planet moves.

357
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Who's going to do this?

358
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
This set of institutions is totally unfit
for purpose.

359
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It was built in a different era,
with different power structures.

360
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It is unable to meet 
the challenges of our time,

361
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and in some areas, like cyber (check)
there is no institution at all.

362
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Small changes, 
largely rearranging the furniture.

363
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(laughter)

364
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Goldin) So I think of us as nations,
like in a cabin within a big ocean liner,

365
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
each in our little cabin, drifting
with no captain, on Planet Earth's deck.

366
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Again, part of this is the result
of extroardinarily positive changes.

367
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
We're no longer in a world
where twelve white men, smoking cigars,

368
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
could sit in their room and decide
the earth's future,

369
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
as they did after the Second World War.

370
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
New power balances mean we have 
to have a transition in power.

371
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
But we're in this dangerous time
where the old powers no longer rule

372
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and the new powers have not been able
to step up to the plate.

373
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
So it's a time of transition, it's a time 
where the big institutions,

374
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
the best of them like the IMF,
have proved themselves

375
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
totally unfit for purpose.

376
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It requires citizens, it requires 
thinking in new ways

377
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to overcome this problem.

378
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Thinking which overcomes short-termism,

379
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
be it in business or 
be it in our own decisions.

380
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
We need to think long, 
because we're here for the long term

381
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and the kids of today will be here
for at least the next century.

382
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
How we do this and how we realize
that our own decisions, increasingly,

383
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
are entangled with others'
is of course the critical question.

384
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
What we see in the politics
is a reversal.

385
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
People feel the future is scary,
uncertain.

386
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
They feel that openness and connectivity
makes them more vulnerable,

387
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and they're right.

388
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And so, we see this political revulsion
with extremism growing

389
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
in all countries, but certainly in Europe
and in the US.

390
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
People wanting to return to an age
which they romanticize as being better:

391
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
protectionist, nationalist, xenophobic.

392
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It's profoundly misguided.

393
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
In order to ensure that 
we can manage this world,

394
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
we need to be more connected, not less.

395
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
We need to ensure that we're able
to come together, but be protected;

396
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
resilient, thinking together, and insuring
that through our decisions

397
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
we not only protect our own futures
but protect those of others, and the planet.

398
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Thank you.
(Applause)

399
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
If we can do all that, we can rock on
to a happy old age.

400
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Moderator) (laughs) Thank you very much
indeed.

401
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
There's (check) a lot of comments here
but there is one theme that is emerging.

402
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Let me just give you this one comment
from Anastasia Brua (check), I think it was?

403
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It's just nipped out as --

404
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
I want to pick up actually, really,
on what David said right at the beginning

405
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
about "Don't be afraid, 
don't be in denial"

406
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and this need for change,

407
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and what you said about the new normal
will feel very strange

408
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
in a few years' time,

409
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
because Jeff Kortenbush (check)
makes this comment:

410
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
"A key skill set should be about 
adapting to rapid change,

411
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
"to learn, unlearn and relearn."

412
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And the debate tonight is going to be
about 21st century skills

413
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
are not being taught in schools
and should be.

414
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Now, much of the work in the Martin School
is about behavior

415
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and about understanding 
how the brain works

416
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and adaptability and the fears of 
the second (check) generation

417
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to be able to adapt to this new shift,

418
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
which is accelerating probably even faster
than most realize.

419
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
How optimistic can we be that actually,
our human capacity can cope with this?

420
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Goldin) Yes, this is 
the most difficult question.

421
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
My sense is that the world is moving
at a revolutionary speed

422
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and we and our institutions are
evolutionary very slow adapters.

423
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
My hope is that this concentration
of knowledge which is being unleashed

424
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
through the new connectivity and literacy
will allow us to leapfrog.

425
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And we do see that, 
and we see signs of this in so many ways.

426
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
So there's all sorts of exciting things,

427
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
like the things we heard about 
earlier today,

428
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
that are happening.

429
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
The big question, and I think it's going
to be partly a question that's resolved

430
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
in Paris this week, is can we learn
to cooperate on these big challenges.

431
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Are we able to give up 
some independence and sovereignty

432
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
as individuals or as countries,

433
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to ensure that collectively, 
we'll all have a bigger future.

434
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Are we able take longer term--
(Moderator) What about the .... (check)

435
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and the ability and -- we've only got
about 3 minutes to run now --

436
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
but what about the ability 
of the human being

437
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to cope with this enormity, particularly
to adapt to the speed

438
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
that the next generation, 
through the education process,

439
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
will be expecting?

440
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Goldin) Humans can do anything.

441
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
In my college at Oxford Balliol, we had
a third of the college giving their lives

442
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
in the First World War,

443
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and about 20% of the college giving 
their lives in the Second World War

444
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to defend ideals of freedom.

445
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
People are prepared to make the most
extraordinary sacrifices,

446
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
to change their lives fundamentally,

447
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
if they believe that 
it's the right thing to do.

448
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Moderator) Can they do it?
(Goldin), Yes, they can.

449
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
We've done it before, we can do it again:
I'm absolutely convinced.

450
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Applause)

451
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Moderator) But again, I'm picking up and
trying to bring together

452
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
a number of themes here, but that --
what David said right at the beginning:

453
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
"Don't be afraid, don't be in denial."

454
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
That is achievable, is it, that kind of
reversal with this scale of change,

455
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and the shift, 
the acceleration taking place?

456
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Goldin) Yes. I think one has to 
open one's eyes

457
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
before one can see 
what's happening around.

458
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And this pace of change is really 
what it's about.

459
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Are we able to appreciate

460
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
this extraordinary moment in history
we're in?

461
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
This age of discovery, are we able
to recognize it for what it is,

462
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and seize the opportunities
that come with it?

463
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
(Moderator) Yes, I'm going to stop there.
I'm afraid you - because you ran too much,

464
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
25 minutes, so the 30 minutes is up, so
I have to stop you at that point

465
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
because some people have begun to leave,
there's coffee and everything else

466
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and a very tight schedule.

467
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Remember, this is going to be part of 
a big debate later tonight

468
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and also, let me underscore that 
everyone here can talk more about it.

469
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And indeed, David Price is signing 
his book,

470
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
"How will we work, live and learn
in the future?" at 13:05,

471
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and that's in Potsdam 3,

472
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and "Information doesn't want to be free",
Cory is going to be speaking about that

473
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
on copyright in the digital age, as well,
at 12 o'clock.

474
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
So, plenty: we've really burdened you
with an enormous number of concepts.

475
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
And David, can I tell you as well,

476
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
there are large numbers of people 
who sent messages, admiring your battle

477
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
and how you've won your battle on health.

478
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Can I thank you all very much indeed, 
and also for contributing

479
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
some important comments and questions
from the floor.

480
99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
It's coffee time.
(Applause)

481
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[Recordings of this session will be 
uploaded to www.online-educa.com] 28:31