9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's [br]wonderful to be with educators 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 who care about the intersection[br]of learning and technology, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because that's going to shape the future. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Whether we're able [br]to get this right or not 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 will determine whether we have[br]a glorious 21st century 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or a period of unmitigated risks. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The walls are coming down everywhere and[br]it's difficult to not think about this, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 being so close to it, here in Berlin, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 25 years ago, these walls coming down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But it's not just about physical walls[br]coming down, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 it's about mental walls,[br]it's about financial walls, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 it's about technological walls. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 All the walls are coming down,[br]and it's that 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 which makes this the most exciting century [br]in the history of humanity. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It changes all of our lives[br]in surprising ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And it's certainly changed mine. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I was living in Paris [br]when this wall came down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I didn't imagine that it would touch me[br]personally. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I thought it was about Eastern Europe,[br]about the Cold War, about something else. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But within 6 months, I would, [br]much to my surprise, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I was invited to have dinner with[br]President Mandela in Paris. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 He wasn't president then, [br]he had just been released from prison. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But he was released [br]because the Cold War ended. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the defining feature of this period[br]we live in, our lives, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is that what happens elsewhere will[br]dramatically affect us in new ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's this change that results [br]from the walls coming down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And it's this change that will shape[br]education going forward 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and technological progress. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And of course, the other fundamental [br]period of -- in this time -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is technology, technology[br]which got off the ground 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 at the same time as the Berlin Wall[br]came down, over 25 years, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 this exponential growth in[br]virtual connectivity. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And now we have a world of 5 billion[br]literate, educated people 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 whereas we had a world, [br]only 30 years ago, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 of well less than a billion [br]connected people. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Four billion more literate[br]connected people in the world, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and this is the engine of change, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where the people in the slums of Mumbai,[br]Soweto's Sao Paulo (check) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or in apartments in Berlin, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 they will contribute to change [br]in surprising new ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And they're coming together. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There is a release of individual genius. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 If you believe in the random distribution[br]of exceptional capabilities, which I do, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 there is just more people out there,[br]educated, connected, giving, learning. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But I also believe in collective genius, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the capabilities of people [br]coming together, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to form teams, [br]to learn from each other 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 through the methods that [br]we heard about this morning. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and in other ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So new cures for cancer being developed[br]on 24-hour cycles around the world. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 My lab in Oxford, doing this with people [br]in Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and all over, in real time. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There is no sleep on innovation any more. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And that's the power, the engine,[br]which brings change. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So if you think you've seen [br]a lot of change 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 be ready for much more surprises. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is the slowest time in history[br]you will know. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's going to get faster,[br]the pace of change greater, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the surprises more intense. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's always going to be 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 more and more difficult [br]to predict what's next. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Uncertainty will grow because[br]the pace of change is growing. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Because the walls have come down, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 there are two billion more people [br]in the world since 1990. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And that's because ideas have traveled,[br]simple ideas, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like washing your hands prevents[br]contagious diseases; 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 really complicated ideas[br]like those embedded in vaccines 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in new cures for cancer[br]and many other things. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Two billion more people coming together,[br]most of them now urbanized, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and even those that aren't[br]physically together, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 virtually together. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 A quite extraordinary moment[br]in human history, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 one where we've come together[br]as a community, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like we were 150,000 years ago,[br]when we lived in villages together, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 our ancestors in East Africa,[br]and then dispersed around the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and now, reconnected. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And it's this reconnection, which[br]I believe, gives us the potential. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But do we learn from it? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And are we able to think of ourselves[br]in new ways, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because we're connecting in new ways? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Is this wall coming down changing the way[br]we are and we think? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Or do we still think like individualists[br]in our nation states, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 pursuing our own self-interest[br]and those of our countries, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 not realizing that now,[br]we are in a different game? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Now we're in a game in which[br]we have to cooperate, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where we have to think about others, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where our actions, for the first time,[br]spill over in dramatic new ways 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and affect people [br]on the other side of the planet. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This pace of education means that [br]not only are we liberating ourselves, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but we're liberating people from[br]all sorts of past habits. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And this change is leading [br]to quick changes in social norms. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Acceptance of gay marriage [br]is one of those, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but there'll be many, many, many others. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so, what we think about [br]as normal today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 will seem very strange [br]in a few years' time: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 this pace of change driven by education, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 more doctorates being created [br]in China now 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 than in the rest of the world [br]put together every year, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 more scientists alive today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 than all the scientists [br]that ever lived in history, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 more literate people alive today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 than all the literate people [br]that ever lived in history. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is the engine of change. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But it's not simply about [br]more and more progress. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's not simply that we know 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that this is going to get [br]better and better. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's about what's next. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We don't know what the future holds. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We live in this extraordinary moment [br]of our lives 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where we've seen exponential growth[br]in incomes: that's red. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we seen this most rapid [br]increase in populations, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and income growth, even more rapid[br]than population growth, which is why 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 people have escaped poverty at a pace[br]that has never happened in history. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Despite the world's population increasing[br]by two billion over the last 25 years, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the number of desperately poor people[br]has gone down by about 300 million. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This has never happened before. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is an incredible time, by far [br]the best time to be alive. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Just while you're here, your average [br]life expectancy should increase 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 by about 10 hours. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 That's the pace of progress: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 what you're learning,[br]and what's happening in the labs. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And it's that which makes me [br]incredibly optimistic. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is the age of discovery,[br]this is the new Renaissance. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is a period of creativity[br]and technological change 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 which hasn't been seen for 500 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is from my stem cell lab[br]in the Oxford Martin School: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the lab technician's skin[br]turned into a heart cell. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And this is one of the [br]extraordinary things that's happening 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that makes one so excited [br]about the future. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 A future of rising life expectancy,[br]so children being born today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,[br]will have life expectancies well over 100, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and not having to worry about the things[br]that I worry about, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But what skills are they learning today[br]that will help them shape this future, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 prepare for it, and will still be relevant[br]in a hundred years time? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's those skills that you have [br]the responsibility to help shape. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We can imagine this glorious future,[br]an extraordinary time in human history. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But we can also realize 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that it could come very, very badly[br]at stuck. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I looked at the Renaissance [br]for inspiration 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to try and understand how people[br]interpreted these choices. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 That was a period of [br]creative exceptionalism, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 scientific exceptionalism. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we think today of the iconic figures,[br]the Michelangelos, the Da Vincis, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the Copernicuses, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 discovering the earth went round the sun,[br]not the other way round, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 fundamentally changing our understanding[br]of ourselves in the universe 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in ways that will happen [br]in our lifetimes. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Fundamental changes [br]which lead to Humanism, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Enlightenment and many, [br]many other things, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 spurred by technologies. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Then, it was the Gutenberg press. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Simple ideas travel very rapidly. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Until then only monks [br]could read and write, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in Latin, in their monasteries. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Less than half of 1% of the world[br]was literate. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There was nothing to read [br]-- and it was in Latin. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And then, this invention lead[br]to a whole new way of thinking. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Ideas traveled, people could learn[br]in their own languages, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and we had the Renaissance. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We also had the development [br]of nationalism 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because people could identify. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and of course, massive [br]technological push-back. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The Bonfire of the Vanities, [br]the burning of books, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 not far from here and across Europe. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Destruction of presses,[br]religious fundamentalism, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 extremism,[br]religious wars for 150 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Now if you recall those curves I put up, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 of the long trajectory of income growth[br]and population growth, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but the Renaissance did not figure. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It was a non-event, [br]it lead to no improvements 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in people's welfare in Europe or beyond. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Are we different? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Can we embrace our technologies in ways[br]that lead to sustained progress? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And there are two things I worry about[br]in this respect. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 First, while the walls have gone down[br]between societies, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 within societies, [br]the walls are going up everywhere. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 All countries are experiencing [br]rising inequality. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Why is this? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's because the pace of progress [br]is so fast at the frontier 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that this process of integration[br]-- some call it globalization -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 has led to such rapid change[br]that if you aren't on the frontier, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 if you don't have the skills, [br]the mobility, the attitude to change, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to adapt, to grab new things,[br]you're left further and further behind. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 If you're in the wrong place, [br]with the wrong skills at the wrong time, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or you're too old,[br]you're left further and further behind. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so we see in all societies [br]rising inequality. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And some people have been able to capture[br]the goods of globalization. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 They've been able to park their money, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 whether they are a corporation [br]in Bermuda or somewhere, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or an individual in Monaco [br]or Lichtenstein or Luxembourg. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so governments are becoming [br]less and less able 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to tax their citizens [br]and tax their corporates 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and less able to fund education,[br]health, infrastructure, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the other things we need. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the second big problem[br]of this integration process 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is when things connect. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Unfortunately,[br]not only good stuff connects. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Rarely, bad stuff connects too. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so the question is how do we have [br]this complex, dense, intertwined system 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 without becoming overwhelmed by it? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Are we able to manage[br]our interdependencies 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in ways that will be sustained[br]and benefit us, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or will they overwhelm us? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And this is both the intended[br]consequences which lead 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to unintended bads. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Our intended consequence of using[br]more antibiotics around the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 leading to antibiotic resistance. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Or as our energy growth grows[br]around the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because people are escaping poverty,[br]leading to climate change. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Or as our resource use increases[br]because people are consuming more food, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 leading to resource depletion. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the unintended consequences,[br]banks which spread around the globe 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 becoming centers of cascading risk[br]and financial crisis. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Airports spreading pandemics, what I call[br]the butterfly defect of globalization. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The spreading of risk is not a new idea. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We think in England that a rat coming[br]off a ship in Liverpool 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 might have killed half the British[br]population in the Black Death. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Early globalization leading [br]to systemic risk. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But what's new is the pace[br]and scale of the change. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So the swine flu that starts [br]in Mexico City 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in 160 countries in thirty days. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the emerging infections group[br]in the Oxford Martin School 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 has modeled spread of this[br]with airline traffic 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and shown it exactly replicates. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So the super-spreaders of the good[br]of globalization 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt, [br]and other great airports 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 become the super-spreaders of the bads,[br]in this case, pandemics. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And in the cybersphere, of course,[br]we see this dramatically, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that anything can be instantaneously[br]elsewhere, be it good or be it bad. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 In finance, we've seen a dramatic [br]indication of this, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 this collapsing system starting [br]from a subprime crisis in the US 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 leading to 100 million people laid off[br]in work from work around the world. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So what happens somewhere[br]dramatically affecting people 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 on the other side of the world[br]in the same way that my life 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 was shaped, but sometimes[br]with disastrous consequences. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And what the financial system also teaches[br]us is the rising power of individuals. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 These new technologies give individuals[br]simply unprecedented powers. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Barings Bank had existed for 200 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It had withstood the most amazing[br]technological, political, and other changes, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and one young man, Nick Leeson, [br]having some fun, a bit of trading, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 managed to bring it down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the same thing almost happened[br]in Societe Generale with Jerome Kerviel, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 JP Morgan, UBS, and many others. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We see that these individuals[br]now have power in new ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And of course, individuals can also[br]in new ways, develop biopathogens 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 using a DNA sequencing which[br]is going down exponentially in price, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 a single individual now[br]can build something using 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 a technology like a drone to distribute[br]it, and kill perhaps tens, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 if not hundreds of millions of people. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This new capability, this new power[br]of individuals has changed 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 so that nation states are becoming[br]less and less powerful 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 relative to the power of individuals. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And there are seven billion of us[br]growing to nine billion 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 over the next 35 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Within the cybersphere,[br]we see this dramatically, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 how small groups can cause mayhem,[br]steal all our records, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 open our bank accounts, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 They'll be opening our front door locks,[br]controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 communication, etc. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Understanding how we build systems[br]which liberate us, and yet 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we do not become slaves [br]or vulnerable to, is the central question. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Can we create interdependent systems[br]where we are in control, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and what does that mean? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And that education process requires[br]a new understanding of responsibility. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 As these technologies pervade into[br]our bodies and everything we do, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 it becomes more and more important. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Trust, integrity, judgment, [br]these old things become more 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and more important. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The financial crisis was characterized[br]by a number of remarkable things. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Over 250,000 extremely well-paid[br]people in the central banks of the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in the IMF and other institutions[br]with this enormous amount of data 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 do not see it coming. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Too much data, too little integrity. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And as machines begin to take our jobs 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 -- and one of my groups in the Oxford[br]Martin School has said that 47% of US jobs 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 will be lost to machine intelligence[br]over the next 20 years -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 people will increasingly see[br]machine intelligence as a threat 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 not only to their bank accounts[br]and other systems, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but to their jobs and their careers. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so, how do we create education[br]systems where we are not vulnerable 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to automation taking our jobs? (16:33) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the answer is, we need to do things[br]which are not automatable. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 What does that mean? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It means creativity, dexterity, [br]empathy, judgment 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and that's what will keep us [br]different from machines 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 for at least the next 50 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So, creating an environment where [br]machines complement our abilities, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 help us, do many of the things 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that are really, in many ways, [br]inhumane for people to be doing, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 dangerous and others; 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 help us be more effective, [br]but don't supplant us. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Being in Germany, we're reminded always 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that it's not that technologies exist[br]that people decide to adopt them. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's society's attitude. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Germany has banned nuclear power,[br]It has banned GMOs. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Many other places [br]embrace these technologies. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's what we feel about these technologies[br]that matters. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's how we feel we can control them,[br]whether we feel that we're on top, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 which will shape the way [br]that societies adopt them. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so, in education, it seems [br]absolutely vital that we understand them. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 People need to understand[br]what genetic modification is. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 People need to understand[br]what DNA sequencing is. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 People need to understand these new, [br]extremely powerful technologies, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 which will change the way we are[br]and the choices we face going forward. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There will be societal choices:[br]do we want to create superhumans, or not? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And if others do it, [br]what is our attitude to that? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 These are choices that we will face,[br]let alone the next generation. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So this handshake, [br]this understanding of technology, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the literacy becomes [br]more and more important, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 as well as the interconnectivity. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 As we will become wealthier,[br]as we will become more connected, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the spillovers of our choices[br]get stronger and stronger. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we see this in many, many areas.[br]We see -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 -- sorry, I just want to go back to the [br]slide before with the video, if I may -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (people arguing animatedly around[br]a big tuna in Japanese, then clapping) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Goldin) This is the tuna market in Tokyo. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This tuna was sold for about 1.5 million Euro. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This the market's response to the scarcity[br]of a natural resource. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The price goes up, the tuna don't know[br]how much they're worth, of course. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 They don't reproduce more [br]when they're worth more. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Hi-tech fishermen go and chase[br]the remaining tuna 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and you get extinction. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the same thing, of course, with rhino[br]and any natural resource. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Natural resources don't understand [br]markets. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 they are irrelevant to them. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and so, as we go forward and we have[br]a market system which determines choice, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 on the one hand, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and more and more people [br]with more wealth 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 are claiming resources [br]through this system. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But on the other hand, we have [br]the supply of natural resources, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 determined in totally different ways, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we have a very serious problem [br]of extinction. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Governments are not [br]very smart at this either. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Thinking short term, [br]they extract resource, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 often for the good of their people, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but collectively, in the long term, [br]a disaster. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is the Aral Sea. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Peop-- countries, six countries[br]doing the right thing, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 drawing water to feed their people. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Collectively, a disaster. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The examples of success [br]-- and the Mediterranean is one -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where citizens, scientists, politicians,[br]civil society movements came together 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and saved this. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And with climate change, of course,[br]we have this dramatic problem. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 What's happening in Paris this week[br]is of huge significance 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to the future of the planet. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But it's not enough;[br]we need to do much more. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we need to do it in a way [br]that allows people around the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to benefit from the things that we have. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We've created 90% of the problem[br]in the rich countries 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but 80%, already 70% of the flows, (check)[br]growing to 80 over the next 15 years, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 will be coming from emerging markets. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So how do we let the rest of the world[br]clime the energy curve, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 while ensuring we keep global warming[br]to below 2 degrees? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 These collective decisions, increasingly,[br]will shape the way that the planet moves. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Who's going to do this? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This set of institutions is totally unfit[br]for purpose. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It was built in a different era,[br]with different power structures. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It is unable to meet [br]the challenges of our time, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and in some areas, like cyber (check)[br]there is no institution at all. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Small changes, [br]largely rearranging the furniture. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (laughter) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Goldin) So I think of us as nations,[br]like in a cabin within a big ocean liner, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 each in our little cabin, drifting[br]with no captain, on Planet Earth's deck. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Again, part of this is the result[br]of extroardinarily positive changes. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We're no longer in a world[br]where twelve white men, smoking cigars, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 could sit in their room and decide[br]the earth's future, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 as they did after the Second World War. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 New power balances mean we have [br]to have a transition in power. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But we're in this dangerous time[br]where the old powers no longer rule 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the new powers have not been able[br]to step up to the plate. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So it's a time of transition, it's a time [br]where the big institutions, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the best of them like the IMF,[br]have proved themselves 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 totally unfit for purpose. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It requires citizens, it requires [br]thinking in new ways 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to overcome this problem. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Thinking which overcomes short-termism, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 be it in business or [br]be it in our own decisions. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We need to think long, [br]because we're here for the long term 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the kids of today will be here[br]for at least the next century. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 How we do this and how we realize[br]that our own decisions, increasingly, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 are entangled with others'[br]is of course the critical question. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 What we see in the politics[br]is a reversal. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 People feel the future is scary,[br]uncertain. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 They feel that openness and connectivity[br]makes them more vulnerable, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and they're right. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so, we see this political revulsion[br]with extremism growing 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in all countries, but certainly in Europe[br]and in the US. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 People wanting to return to an age[br]which they romanticize as being better: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 protectionist, nationalist, xenophobic. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's profoundly misguided. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 In order to ensure that [br]we can manage this world, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we need to be more connected, not less. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We need to ensure that we're able[br]to come together, but be protected; 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 resilient, thinking together, and insuring[br]that through our decisions 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we not only protect our own futures[br]but protect those of others, and the planet. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Thank you.[br](Applause) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 If we can do all that, we can rock on[br]to a happy old age. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Moderator) (laughs) Thank you very much[br]indeed. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There's (check) a lot of comments here[br]but there is one theme that is emerging. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Let me just give you this one comment[br]from Anastasia Brua (check), I think it was? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's just nipped out as -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I want to pick up actually, really,[br]on what David said right at the beginning 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 about "Don't be afraid, [br]don't be in denial" 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and this need for change, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and what you said about the new normal[br]will feel very strange 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in a few years' time, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because Jeff Kortenbush (check)[br]makes this comment: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "A key skill set should be about [br]adapting to rapid change, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "to learn, unlearn and relearn." 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the debate tonight is going to be[br]about 21st century skills 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 are not being taught in schools[br]and should be. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Now, much of the work in the Martin School[br]is about behavior 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and about understanding [br]how the brain works 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and adaptability and the fears of [br]the second (check) generation 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to be able to adapt to this new shift, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 which is accelerating probably even faster[br]than most realize. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 How optimistic can we be that actually,[br]our human capacity can cope with this? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Goldin) Yes, this is [br]the most difficult question. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 My sense is that the world is moving[br]at a revolutionary speed 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and we and our institutions are[br]evolutionary very slow adapters. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 My hope is that this concentration[br]of knowledge which is being unleashed 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 through the new connectivity and literacy[br]will allow us to leapfrog. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we do see that, [br]and we see signs of this in so many ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So there's all sorts of exciting things, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like the things we heard about [br]earlier today, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that are happening. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The big question, and I think it's going[br]to be partly a question that's resolved 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in Paris this week, is can we learn[br]to cooperate on these big challenges. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Are we able to give up [br]some independence and sovereignty 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 as individuals or as countries, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to ensure that collectively, [br]we'll all have a bigger future. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Are we able take longer term--[br](Moderator) What about the .... (check) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the ability and -- we've only got[br]about 3 minutes to run now -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but what about the ability [br]of the human being 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to cope with this enormity, particularly[br]to adapt to the speed 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that the next generation, [br]through the education process, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 will be expecting? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Goldin) Humans can do anything. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 In my college at Oxford Balliol, we had[br]a third of the college giving their lives 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in the First World War, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and about 20% of the college giving [br]their lives in the Second World War 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to defend ideals of freedom. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 People are prepared to make the most[br]extraordinary sacrifices, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to change their lives fundamentally, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 if they believe that [br]it's the right thing to do. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Moderator) Can they do it?[br](Goldin), Yes, they can. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We've done it before, we can do it again:[br]I'm absolutely convinced. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Applause) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Moderator) But again, I'm picking up and[br]trying to bring together 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 a number of themes here, but that --[br]what David said right at the beginning: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "Don't be afraid, don't be in denial." 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 That is achievable, is it, that kind of[br]reversal with this scale of change, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the shift, [br]the acceleration taking place? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Goldin) Yes. I think one has to [br]open one's eyes 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 before one can see [br]what's happening around. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And this pace of change is really [br]what it's about. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Are we able to appreciate 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 this extraordinary moment in history[br]we're in? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This age of discovery, are we able[br]to recognize it for what it is, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and seize the opportunities[br]that come with it? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Moderator) Yes, I'm going to stop there.[br]I'm afraid you - because you ran too much, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 25 minutes, so the 30 minutes is up, so[br]I have to stop you at that point 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because some people have begun to leave,[br]there's coffee and everything else 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and a very tight schedule. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Remember, this is going to be part of [br]a big debate later tonight 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and also, let me underscore that [br]everyone here can talk more about it. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And indeed, David Price is signing [br]his book, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "How will we work, live and learn[br]in the future?" at 13:05, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and that's in Potsdam 3, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and "Information doesn't want to be free",[br]Cory is going to be speaking about that 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 on copyright in the digital age, as well,[br]at 12 o'clock. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So, plenty: we've really burdened you[br]with an enormous number of concepts. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And David, can I tell you as well, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 there are large numbers of people [br]who sent messages, admiring your battle 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and how you've won your battle on health. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Can I thank you all very much indeed, [br]and also for contributing 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 some important comments and questions[br]from the floor. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's coffee time.[br](Applause) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 [Recordings of this session will be [br]uploaded to www.online-educa.com] 28:31