(Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's 
wonderful to be with educators

who care about the intersection
of learning and technology,

because that's going to shape the future.

Whether we're able 
to get this right or not

will determine whether we have
a glorious 21st century

or a period of unmitigated risks.

The walls are coming down everywhere and
it's difficult to not think about this,

being so close to it, here in Berlin,

25 years ago, these walls coming down.

But it's not just about physical walls
coming down,

it's about mental walls,
it's about financial walls,

it's about technological walls.

All the walls are coming down,
and it's that

which makes this the most exciting century 
in the history of humanity.

It changes all of our lives
in surprising ways.

And it's certainly changed mine.

I was living in Paris 
when this wall came down.

I didn't imagine that it would touch me
personally.

I thought it was about Eastern Europe,
about the Cold War, about something else.

But within 6 months, I would, 
much to my surprise,

I was invited to have dinner with
President Mandela in Paris.

He wasn't president then, 
he had just been released from prison.

But he was released 
because the Cold War ended.

And the defining feature of this period
we live in, our lives,

is that what happens elsewhere will
dramatically affect us in new ways.

It's this change that results 
from the walls coming down.

And it's this change that will shape
education going forward

and technological progress.

And of course, the other fundamental 
period of -- in this time --

is technology, technology
which got off the ground

at the same time as the Berlin Wall
came down, over 25 years,

this exponential growth in
virtual connectivity.

And now we have a world of 5 billion
literate, educated people

whereas we had a world, 
only 30 years ago,

of well less than a billion 
connected people.

Four billion more literate
connected people in the world,

and this is the engine of change,

where the people in the slums of Mumbai,
Soweto's Sao Paulo (check)

or in apartments in Berlin,

they will contribute to change 
in surprising new ways.

And they're coming together.

There is a release of individual genius.

If you believe in the random distribution
of exceptional capabilities, which I do,

there is just more people out there,
educated, connected, giving, learning.

But I also believe in collective genius,

the capabilities of people 
coming together,

to form teams, 
to learn from each other

through the methods that 
we heard about this morning.

and in other ways.

So new cures for cancer being developed
on 24-hour cycles around the world.

My lab in Oxford, doing this with people 
in Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto

and all over, in real time.

There is no sleep on innovation any more.

And that's the power, the engine,
which brings change.

So if you think you've seen 
a lot of change

be ready for much more surprises.

This is the slowest time in history
you will know.

It's going to get faster,
the pace of change greater,

the surprises more intense.

It's always going to be

more and more difficult 
to predict what's next.

Uncertainty will grow because
the pace of change is growing.

Because the walls have come down,

there are two billion more people 
in the world since 1990.

And that's because ideas have traveled,
simple ideas,

like washing your hands prevents
contagious diseases;

really complicated ideas
like those embedded in vaccines

in new cures for cancer
and many other things.

Two billion more people coming together,
most of them now urbanized,

and even those that aren't
physically together,

virtually together.

A quite extraordinary moment
in human history,

one where we've come together
as a community,

like we were 150,000 years ago,
when we lived in villages together,

our ancestors in East Africa,
and then dispersed around the world

and now, reconnected.

And it's this reconnection, which
I believe, gives us the potential.

But do we learn from it?

And are we able to think of ourselves
in new ways,

because we're connecting in new ways?

Is this wall coming down changing the way
we are and we think?

Or do we still think like individualists
in our nation states,

pursuing our own self-interest
and those of our countries,

not realizing that now,
we are in a different game?

Now we're in a game in which
we have to cooperate,

where we have to think about others,

where our actions, for the first time,
spill over in dramatic new ways

and affect people 
on the other side of the planet.

This pace of education means that 
not only are we liberating ourselves,

but we're liberating people from
all sorts of past habits.

And this change is leading 
to quick changes in social norms.

Acceptance of gay marriage 
is one of those,

but there'll be many, many, many others.

And so, what we think about 
as normal today

will seem very strange 
in a few years' time:

this pace of change driven by education,

more doctorates being created 
in China now

than in the rest of the world 
put together every year,

more scientists alive today

than all the scientists 
that ever lived in history,

more literate people alive today

than all the literate people 
that ever lived in history.

This is the engine of change.

But it's not simply about 
more and more progress.

It's not simply that we know

that this is going to get 
better and better.

It's about what's next.

We don't know what the future holds.

We live in this extraordinary moment 
of our lives

where we've seen exponential growth
in incomes: that's red.

And we seen this most rapid 
increase in populations,

and income growth, even more rapid
than population growth, which is why

people have escaped poverty at a pace
that has never happened in history.

Despite the world's population increasing
by two billion over the last 25 years,

the number of desperately poor people
has gone down by about 300 million.

This has never happened before.

This is an incredible time, by far 
the best time to be alive.

Just while you're here, your average 
life expectancy should increase

by about 10 hours.

That's the pace of progress:

what you're learning,
and what's happening in the labs.

And it's that which makes me 
incredibly optimistic.

This is the age of discovery,
this is the new Renaissance.

This is a period of creativity
and technological change

which hasn't been seen for 500 years.

This is from my stem cell lab
in the Oxford Martin School:

the lab technician's skin
turned into a heart cell.

And this is one of the 
extraordinary things that's happening

that makes one so excited 
about the future.

A future of rising life expectancy,
so children being born today

in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,
will have life expectancies well over 100,

and not having to worry about the things
that I worry about,

like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia.

But what skills are they learning today
that will help them shape this future,

prepare for it, and will still be relevant
in a hundred years time?

It's those skills that you have 
the responsibility to help shape.

We can imagine this glorious future,
an extraordinary time in human history.

But we can also realize

that it could come very, very badly
at stuck.

I looked at the Renaissance 
for inspiration

to try and understand how people
interpreted these choices.

That was a period of 
creative exceptionalism,

scientific exceptionalism.

And we think today of the iconic figures,
the Michelangelos, the Da Vincis,

the Copernicuses,

discovering the earth went round the sun,
not the other way round,

fundamentally changing our understanding
of ourselves in the universe

in ways that will happen 
in our lifetimes.

Fundamental changes 
which lead to Humanism,

Enlightenment and many, 
many other things,

spurred by technologies.

Then, it was the Gutenberg press.

Simple ideas travel very rapidly.

Until then only monks 
could read and write,

in Latin, in their monasteries.

Less than half of 1% of the world
was literate.

There was nothing to read 
-- and it was in Latin.

And then, this invention lead
to a whole new way of thinking.

Ideas traveled, people could learn
in their own languages,

and we had the Renaissance.

We also had the development 
of nationalism

because people could identify.

and of course, massive 
technological push-back.

The Bonfire of the Vanities, 
the burning of books,

not far from here and across Europe.

Destruction of presses,
religious fundamentalism,

extremism,
religious wars for 150 years.

Now if you recall those curves I put up,

of the long trajectory of income growth
and population growth,

but the Renaissance did not figure.

It was a non-event, 
it lead to no improvements

in people's welfare in Europe or beyond.

Are we different?

Can we embrace our technologies in ways
that lead to sustained progress?

And there are two things I worry about
in this respect.

First, while the walls have gone down
between societies,

within societies, 
the walls are going up everywhere.

All countries are experiencing 
rising inequality.

Why is this?

It's because the pace of progress 
is so fast at the frontier

that this process of integration
-- some call it globalization --

has led to such rapid change
that if you aren't on the frontier,

if you don't have the skills, 
the mobility, the attitude to change,

to adapt, to grab new things,
you're left further and further behind.

If you're in the wrong place, 
with the wrong skills at the wrong time,

or you're too old,
you're left further and further behind.

And so we see in all societies 
rising inequality.

And some people have been able to capture
the goods of globalization.

They've been able to park their money,

whether they are a corporation 
in Bermuda or somewhere,

or an individual in Monaco 
or Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.

And so governments are becoming 
less and less able

to tax their citizens 
and tax their corporates

and less able to fund education,
health, infrastructure,

and the other things we need.

And the second big problem
of this integration process

is when things connect.

Unfortunately,
not only good stuff connects.

Rarely, bad stuff connects too.

And so the question is how do we have 
this complex, dense, intertwined system

without becoming overwhelmed by it?

Are we able to manage
our interdependencies

in ways that will be sustained
and benefit us,

or will they overwhelm us?

And this is both the intended
consequences which lead

to unintended bads.

Our intended consequence of using
more antibiotics around the world

leading to antibiotic resistance.

Or as our energy growth grows
around the world

because people are escaping poverty,
leading to climate change.

Or as our resource use increases
because people are consuming more food,

leading to resource depletion.

And the unintended consequences,
banks which spread around the globe

becoming centers of cascading risk
and financial crisis.

Airports spreading pandemics, what I call
the butterfly defect of globalization.

The spreading of risk is not a new idea.

We think in England that a rat coming
off a ship in Liverpool

might have killed half the British
population in the Black Death.

Early globalization leading 
to systemic risk.

But what's new is the pace
and scale of the change.

So the swine flu that starts 
in Mexico City

in 160 countries in thirty days.

And the emerging infections group
in the Oxford Martin School

has modeled spread of this
with airline traffic

and shown it exactly replicates.

So the super-spreaders of the good
of globalization

like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt, 
and other great airports

become the super-spreaders of the bads,
in this case, pandemics.

And in the cybersphere, of course,
we see this dramatically,

that anything can be instantaneously
elsewhere, be it good or be it bad.

In finance, we've seen a dramatic 
indication of this,

this collapsing system starting 
from a subprime crisis in the US

leading to 100 million people laid off
in work from work around the world.

So what happens somewhere
dramatically affecting people

on the other side of the world
in the same way that my life

was shaped, but sometimes
with disastrous consequences.

And what the financial system also teaches
us is the rising power of individuals.

These new technologies give individuals
simply unprecedented powers.

Barings Bank had existed for 200 years.

It had withstood the most amazing
technological, political, and other changes,

and one young man, Nick Leeson, 
having some fun, a bit of trading,

managed to bring it down.

And the same thing almost happened
in Societe Generale with Jerome Kerviel,

JP Morgan, UBS, and many others.

We see that these individuals
now have power in new ways.

And of course, individuals can also
in new ways, develop biopathogens

using a DNA sequencing which
is going down exponentially in price,

a single individual now
can build something using

a technology like a drone to distribute
it, and kill perhaps tens,

if not hundreds of millions of people.

This new capability, this new power
of individuals has changed

so that nation states are becoming
less and less powerful

relative to the power of individuals.

And there are seven billion of us
growing to nine billion

over the next 35 years.

Within the cybersphere,
we see this dramatically,

how small groups can cause mayhem,
steal all our records,

open our bank accounts,

They'll be opening our front door locks,
controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle

communication, etc.

Understanding how we build systems
which liberate us, and yet

we do not become slaves 
or vulnerable to, is the central question.

Can we create interdependent systems
where we are in control,

and what does that mean?

And that education process requires
a new understanding of responsibility.

As these technologies pervade into
our bodies and everything we do,

it becomes more and more important.

Trust, integrity, judgment, 
these old things become more

and more important.

The financial crisis was characterized
by a number of remarkable things.

Over 250,000 extremely well-paid
people in the central banks of the world

in the IMF and other institutions
with this enormous amount of data

do not see it coming.

Too much data, too little integrity.

And as machines begin to take our jobs

-- and one of my groups in the Oxford
Martin School has said that 47% of US jobs

will be lost to machine intelligence
over the next 20 years --

people will increasingly see
machine intelligence as a threat

not only to their bank accounts
and other systems,

but to their jobs and their careers.

And so, how do we create education
systems where we are not vulnerable

to automation taking our jobs? (16:33)