9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 (Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's [br]wonderful to be with educators 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 who care about the intersection[br]of learning and technology, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because that's going to shape the future. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Whether we're able [br]to get this right or not 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 will determine whether we have[br]a glorious 21st century 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or a period of unmitigated risks. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The walls are coming down everywhere and[br]it's difficult to not think about this, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 being so close to it, here in Berlin, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 25 years ago, these walls coming down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But it's not just about physical walls[br]coming down, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 it's about mental walls,[br]it's about financial walls, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 it's about technological walls. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 All the walls are coming down,[br]and it's that 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 which makes this the most exciting century [br]in the history of humanity. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It changes all of our lives[br]in surprising ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And it's certainly changed mine. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I was living in Paris [br]when this wall came down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I didn't imagine that it would touch me[br]personally. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I thought it was about Eastern Europe,[br]about the Cold War, about something else. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But within 6 months, I would, [br]much to my surprise, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I was invited to have dinner with[br]President Mandela in Paris. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 He wasn't president then, [br]he had just been released from prison. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But he was released [br]because the Cold War ended. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the defining feature of this period[br]we live in, our lives, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is that what happens elsewhere will[br]dramatically affect us in new ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's this change that results [br]from the walls coming down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And it's this change that will shape[br]education going forward 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and technological progress. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And of course, the other fundamental [br]period of -- in this time -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is technology, technology[br]which got off the ground 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 at the same time as the Berlin Wall[br]came down, over 25 years, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 this exponential growth in[br]virtual connectivity. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And now we have a world of 5 billion[br]literate, educated people 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 whereas we had a world, [br]only 30 years ago, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 of well less than a billion [br]connected people. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Four billion more literate[br]connected people in the world, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and this is the engine of change, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where the people in the slums of Mumbai,[br]Soweto's Sao Paulo (check) 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or in apartments in Berlin, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 they will contribute to change [br]in surprising new ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And they're coming together. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There is a release of individual genius. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 If you believe in the random distribution[br]of exceptional capabilities, which I do, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 there is just more people out there,[br]educated, connected, giving, learning. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But I also believe in collective genius, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the capabilities of people [br]coming together, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to form teams, [br]to learn from each other 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 through the methods that [br]we heard about this morning. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and in other ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So new cures for cancer being developed[br]on 24-hour cycles around the world. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 My lab in Oxford, doing this with people [br]in Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and all over, in real time. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There is no sleep on innovation any more. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And that's the power, the engine,[br]which brings change. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So if you think you've seen [br]a lot of change 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 be ready for much more surprises. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is the slowest time in history[br]you will know. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's going to get faster,[br]the pace of change greater, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the surprises more intense. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's always going to be 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 more and more difficult [br]to predict what's next. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Uncertainty will grow because[br]the pace of change is growing. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Because the walls have come down, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 there are two billion more people [br]in the world since 1990. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And that's because ideas have traveled,[br]simple ideas, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like washing your hands prevents[br]contagious diseases; 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 really complicated ideas[br]like those embedded in vaccines 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in new cures for cancer[br]and many other things. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Two billion more people coming together,[br]most of them now urbanized, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and even those that aren't[br]physically together, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 virtually together. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 A quite extraordinary moment[br]in human history, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 one where we've come together[br]as a community, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like we were 150,000 years ago,[br]when we lived in villages together, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 our ancestors in East Africa,[br]and then dispersed around the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and now, reconnected. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And it's this reconnection, which[br]I believe, gives us the potential. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But do we learn from it? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And are we able to think of ourselves[br]in new ways, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because we're connecting in new ways? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Is this wall coming down changing the way[br]we are and we think? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Or do we still think like individualists[br]in our nation states, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 pursuing our own self-interest[br]and those of our countries, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 not realizing that now,[br]we are in a different game? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Now we're in a game in which[br]we have to cooperate, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where we have to think about others, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where our actions, for the first time,[br]spill over in dramatic new ways 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and affect people [br]on the other side of the planet. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This pace of education means that [br]not only are we liberating ourselves, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but we're liberating people from[br]all sorts of past habits. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And this change is leading [br]to quick changes in social norms. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Acceptance of gay marriage [br]is one of those, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but there'll be many, many, many others. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so, what we think about [br]as normal today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 will seem very strange [br]in a few years' time: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 this pace of change driven by education, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 more doctorates being created [br]in China now 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 than in the rest of the world [br]put together every year, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 more scientists alive today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 than all the scientists [br]that ever lived in history, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 more literate people alive today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 than all the literate people [br]that ever lived in history. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is the engine of change. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But it's not simply about [br]more and more progress. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's not simply that we know 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that this is going to get [br]better and better. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's about what's next. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We don't know what the future holds. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We live in this extraordinary moment [br]of our lives 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where we've seen exponential growth[br]in incomes: that's red. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we seen this most rapid [br]increase in populations, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and income growth, even more rapid[br]than population growth, which is why 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 people have escaped poverty at a pace[br]that has never happened in history. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Despite the world's population increasing[br]by two billion over the last 25 years, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the number of desperately poor people[br]has gone down by about 300 million. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This has never happened before. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is an incredible time, by far [br]the best time to be alive. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Just while you're here, your average [br]life expectancy should increase 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 by about 10 hours. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 That's the pace of progress: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 what you're learning,[br]and what's happening in the labs. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And it's that which makes me [br]incredibly optimistic. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is the age of discovery,[br]this is the new Renaissance. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is a period of creativity[br]and technological change 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 which hasn't been seen for 500 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This is from my stem cell lab[br]in the Oxford Martin School: 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the lab technician's skin[br]turned into a heart cell. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And this is one of the [br]extraordinary things that's happening 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that makes one so excited [br]about the future. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 A future of rising life expectancy,[br]so children being born today 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,[br]will have life expectancies well over 100, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and not having to worry about the things[br]that I worry about, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But what skills are they learning today[br]that will help them shape this future, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 prepare for it, and will still be relevant[br]in a hundred years time? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's those skills that you have [br]the responsibility to help shape. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We can imagine this glorious future,[br]an extraordinary time in human history. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But we can also realize 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that it could come very, very badly[br]at stuck. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I looked at the Renaissance [br]for inspiration 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to try and understand how people[br]interpreted these choices. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 That was a period of [br]creative exceptionalism, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 scientific exceptionalism. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we think today of the iconic figures,[br]the Michelangelos, the Da Vincis, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the Copernicuses, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 discovering the earth went round the sun,[br]not the other way round, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 fundamentally changing our understanding[br]of ourselves in the universe 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in ways that will happen [br]in our lifetimes. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Fundamental changes [br]which lead to Humanism, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Enlightenment and many, [br]many other things, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 spurred by technologies. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Then, it was the Gutenberg press. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Simple ideas travel very rapidly. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Until then only monks [br]could read and write, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in Latin, in their monasteries. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Less than half of 1% of the world[br]was literate. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There was nothing to read [br]-- and it was in Latin. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And then, this invention lead[br]to a whole new way of thinking. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Ideas traveled, people could learn[br]in their own languages, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and we had the Renaissance. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We also had the development [br]of nationalism 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because people could identify. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and of course, massive [br]technological push-back. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The Bonfire of the Vanities, [br]the burning of books, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 not far from here and across Europe. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Destruction of presses,[br]religious fundamentalism, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 extremism,[br]religious wars for 150 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Now if you recall those curves I put up, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 of the long trajectory of income growth[br]and population growth, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but the Renaissance did not figure. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It was a non-event, [br]it lead to no improvements 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in people's welfare in Europe or beyond. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Are we different? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Can we embrace our technologies in ways[br]that lead to sustained progress? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And there are two things I worry about[br]in this respect. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 First, while the walls have gone down[br]between societies, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 within societies, [br]the walls are going up everywhere. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 All countries are experiencing [br]rising inequality. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Why is this? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It's because the pace of progress [br]is so fast at the frontier 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that this process of integration[br]-- some call it globalization -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 has led to such rapid change[br]that if you aren't on the frontier, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 if you don't have the skills, [br]the mobility, the attitude to change, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to adapt, to grab new things,[br]you're left further and further behind. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 If you're in the wrong place, [br]with the wrong skills at the wrong time, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or you're too old,[br]you're left further and further behind. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so we see in all societies [br]rising inequality. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And some people have been able to capture[br]the goods of globalization. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 They've been able to park their money, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 whether they are a corporation [br]in Bermuda or somewhere, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or an individual in Monaco [br]or Lichtenstein or Luxembourg. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so governments are becoming [br]less and less able 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to tax their citizens [br]and tax their corporates 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and less able to fund education,[br]health, infrastructure, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the other things we need. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the second big problem[br]of this integration process 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is when things connect. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Unfortunately,[br]not only good stuff connects. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Rarely, bad stuff connects too. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so the question is how do we have [br]this complex, dense, intertwined system 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 without becoming overwhelmed by it? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Are we able to manage[br]our interdependencies 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in ways that will be sustained[br]and benefit us, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 or will they overwhelm us? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And this is both the intended[br]consequences which lead 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to unintended bads. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Our intended consequence of using[br]more antibiotics around the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 leading to antibiotic resistance. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Or as our energy growth grows[br]around the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because people are escaping poverty,[br]leading to climate change. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Or as our resource use increases[br]because people are consuming more food, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 leading to resource depletion. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the unintended consequences,[br]banks which spread around the globe 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 becoming centers of cascading risk[br]and financial crisis. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Airports spreading pandemics, what I call[br]the butterfly defect of globalization. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The spreading of risk is not a new idea. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We think in England that a rat coming[br]off a ship in Liverpool 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 might have killed half the British[br]population in the Black Death. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Early globalization leading [br]to systemic risk. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 But what's new is the pace[br]and scale of the change. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So the swine flu that starts [br]in Mexico City 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in 160 countries in thirty days. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the emerging infections group[br]in the Oxford Martin School 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 has modeled spread of this[br]with airline traffic 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and shown it exactly replicates. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So the super-spreaders of the good[br]of globalization 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt, [br]and other great airports 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 become the super-spreaders of the bads,[br]in this case, pandemics. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And in the cybersphere, of course,[br]we see this dramatically, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that anything can be instantaneously[br]elsewhere, be it good or be it bad. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 In finance, we've seen a dramatic [br]indication of this, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 this collapsing system starting [br]from a subprime crisis in the US 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 leading to 100 million people laid off[br]in work from work around the world. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So what happens somewhere[br]dramatically affecting people 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 on the other side of the world[br]in the same way that my life 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 was shaped, but sometimes[br]with disastrous consequences. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And what the financial system also teaches[br]us is the rising power of individuals. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 These new technologies give individuals[br]simply unprecedented powers. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Barings Bank had existed for 200 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It had withstood the most amazing[br]technological, political, and other changes, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and one young man, Nick Leeson, [br]having some fun, a bit of trading, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 managed to bring it down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the same thing almost happened[br]in Societe Generale with Jerome Kerviel, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 JP Morgan, UBS, and many others. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We see that these individuals[br]now have power in new ways. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And of course, individuals can also[br]in new ways, develop biopathogens 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 using a DNA sequencing which[br]is going down exponentially in price, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 a single individual now[br]can build something using 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 a technology like a drone to distribute[br]it, and kill perhaps tens, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 if not hundreds of millions of people. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This new capability, this new power[br]of individuals has changed 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 so that nation states are becoming[br]less and less powerful 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 relative to the power of individuals. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And there are seven billion of us[br]growing to nine billion 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 over the next 35 years. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Within the cybersphere,[br]we see this dramatically, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 how small groups can cause mayhem,[br]steal all our records, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 open our bank accounts, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 They'll be opening our front door locks,[br]controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 communication, etc. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Understanding how we build systems[br]which liberate us, and yet 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we do not become slaves [br]or vulnerable to, is the central question. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Can we create interdependent systems[br]where we are in control, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and what does that mean? 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And that education process requires[br]a new understanding of responsibility. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 As these technologies pervade into[br]our bodies and everything we do, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 it becomes more and more important. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Trust, integrity, judgment, [br]these old things become more 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and more important. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 The financial crisis was characterized[br]by a number of remarkable things. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Over 250,000 extremely well-paid[br]people in the central banks of the world 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 in the IMF and other institutions[br]with this enormous amount of data 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 do not see it coming. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Too much data, too little integrity. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And as machines begin to take our jobs 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 -- and one of my groups in the Oxford[br]Martin School has said that 47% of US jobs 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 will be lost to machine intelligence[br]over the next 20 years -- 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 people will increasingly see[br]machine intelligence as a threat 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 not only to their bank accounts[br]and other systems, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 but to their jobs and their careers. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And so, how do we create education[br]systems where we are not vulnerable 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to automation taking our jobs? (16:33)