WEBVTT

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(Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's 
wonderful to be with educators

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who care about the intersection
of learning and technology,

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because that's going to shape the future.

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Whether we're able 
to get this right or not

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will determine whether we have
a glorious 21st century

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or a period of unmitigated risks.

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The walls are coming down everywhere and
it's difficult to not think about this,

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being so close to it, here in Berlin,

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25 years ago, these walls coming down.

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But it's not just about physical walls
coming down,

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it's about mental walls,
it's about financial walls,

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it's about technological walls.

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All the walls are coming down,
and it's that

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which makes this the most exciting century 
in the history of humanity.

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It changes all of our lives
in surprising ways.

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And it's certainly changed mine.

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I was living in Paris 
when this wall came down.

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I didn't imagine that it would touch me
personally.

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I thought it was about Eastern Europe,
about the Cold War, about something else.

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But within 6 months, I would, 
much to my surprise,

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I was invited to have dinner with
President Mandela in Paris.

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He wasn't president then, 
he had just been released from prison.

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But he was released 
because the Cold War ended.

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And the defining feature of this period
we live in, our lives,

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is that what happens elsewhere will
dramatically affect us in new ways.

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It's this change that results 
from the walls coming down.

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And it's this change that will shape
education going forward

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and technological progress.

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And of course, the other fundamental 
period of -- in this time --

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is technology, technology
which got off the ground

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at the same time as the Berlin Wall
came down, over 25 years,

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this exponential growth in
virtual connectivity.

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And now we have a world of 5 billion
literate, educated people

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whereas we had a world, 
only 30 years ago,

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of well less than a billion 
connected people.

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Four billion more literate
connected people in the world,

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and this is the engine of change,

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where the people in the slums of Mumbai,
Soweto, Sao Paulo,

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or in apartments in Berlin,

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they will contribute to change 
in surprising new ways.

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And they're coming together.

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There is a release of individual genius.

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If you believe in the random distribution
of exceptional capabilities, which I do,

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there is just more people out there,
educated, connected, giving, learning.

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But I also believe in collective genius,

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the capabilities of people 
coming together,

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to form teams, 
to learn from each other

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through the methods that 
we heard about this morning.

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and in other ways.

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So new cures for cancer being developed
on 24-hour cycles around the world.

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My lab in Oxford, doing this with people 
in Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto

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and all over, in real time.

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There is no sleep on innovation any more.

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And that's the power, the engine,
which brings change.

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So if you think you've seen 
a lot of change

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be ready for much more surprises.

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This is the slowest time in history
you will know.

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It's going to get faster,
the pace of change greater,

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the surprises more intense.

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It's always going to be

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more and more difficult 
to predict what's next.

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Uncertainty will grow because
the pace of change is growing.

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Because the walls have come down,

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there are two billion more people 
in the world since 1990.

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And that's because ideas have traveled,
simple ideas,

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like washing your hands prevents
contagious diseases;

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really complicated ideas
like those embedded in vaccines

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in new cures for cancer
and many other things.

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Two billion more people coming together,
most of them now urbanized,

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and even those that aren't
physically together,

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virtually together.

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A quite extraordinary moment
in human history,

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one where we've come together
as a community,

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like we were 150,000 years ago,
when we lived in villages together,

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our ancestors in East Africa,
and then dispersed around the world

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and now, reconnected.

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And it's this reconnection, which
I believe, gives us the potential.

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But do we learn from it?

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And are we able to think of ourselves
in new ways,

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because we're connecting in new ways?

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Is this wall coming down changing the way
we are and we think?

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Or do we still think like individualists
in our nation states,

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pursuing our own self-interest
and those of our countries,

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not realizing that now,
we are in a different game?

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Now we're in a game in which
we have to cooperate,

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where we have to think about others,

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where our actions, for the first time,
spill over in dramatic new ways

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and affect people 
on the other side of the planet.

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This pace of education means that 
not only are we liberating ourselves,

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but we're liberating people from
all sorts of past habits.

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And this change is leading 
to quick changes in social norms.

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Acceptance of gay marriage 
is one of those,

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but there'll be many, many, many others.

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And so, what we think about 
as normal today

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will seem very strange 
in a few years' time:

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this pace of change driven by education,

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more doctorates being created 
in China now

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than in the rest of the world 
put together every year,

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more scientists alive today

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than all the scientists 
that ever lived in history,

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more literate people alive today

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than all the literate people 
that ever lived in history.

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This is the engine of change.

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But it's not simply about 
more and more progress.

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It's not simply that we know

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that this is going to get 
better and better.

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It's about what's next.

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We don't know what the future holds.

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We live in this extraordinary moment 
of our lives

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where we've seen exponential growth
in incomes: that's red.

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And we seen this most rapid 
increase in populations,

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and income growth, even more rapid
than population growth, which is why

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people have escaped poverty at a pace
that has never happened in history.

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Despite the world's population increasing
by two billion over the last 25 years,

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the number of desperately poor people
has gone down by about 300 million.

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This has never happened before.

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This is an incredible time, by far 
the best time to be alive.

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Just while you're here, your average 
life expectancy should increase

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by about 10 hours.

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That's the pace of progress:

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what you're learning,
and what's happening in the labs.

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And it's that which makes me 
incredibly optimistic.

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This is the age of discovery,
this is the new Renaissance.

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This is a period of creativity
and technological change

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which hasn't been seen for 500 years.

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This is from my stem cell lab
in the Oxford Martin School:

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the lab technician's skin
turned into a heart cell.

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And this is one of the 
extraordinary things that's happening

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that makes one so excited 
about the future.

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A future of rising life expectancy,
so children being born today

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in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,
will have life expectancies well over 100,

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and not having to worry about the things
that I worry about,

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like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia.

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But what skills are they learning today
that will help them shape this future,

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prepare for it, and will still be relevant
in a hundred years time?

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It's those skills that you have 
the responsibility to help shape.

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We can imagine this glorious future,
an extraordinary time in human history.

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But we can also realize

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that it could come very, very badly
at stuck.

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I looked at the Renaissance 
for inspiration

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to try and understand how people
interpreted these choices.

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That was a period of 
creative exceptionalism,

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scientific exceptionalism.

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And we think today of the iconic figures,
the Michelangelos, the Da Vincis,

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the Copernicuses,

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discovering the earth went round the sun,
not the other way round,

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fundamentally changing our understanding
of ourselves in the universe

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in ways that will happen 
in our lifetimes.

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Fundamental changes 
which lead to Humanism,

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Enlightenment and many, 
many other things,

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spurred by technologies.

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Then, it was the Gutenberg press.

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Simple ideas travel very rapidly.

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Until then only monks 
could read and write,

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in Latin, in their monasteries.

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Less than half of 1% of the world
was literate.

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There was nothing to read 
-- and it was in Latin.

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And then, this invention lead
to a whole new way of thinking.

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Ideas traveled, people could learn
in their own languages,

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and we had the Renaissance.

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We also had the development 
of nationalism

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because people could identify.

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and of course, massive 
technological push-back.

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The Bonfire of the Vanities, 
the burning of books,

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not far from here and across Europe.

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Destruction of presses,
religious fundamentalism,

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extremism,
religious wars for 150 years.

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Now if you recall those curves I put up,

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of the long trajectory of income growth
and population growth,

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but the Renaissance did not figure.

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It was a non-event, 
it lead to no improvements

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in people's welfare in Europe or beyond.

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Are we different?

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Can we embrace our technologies in ways
that lead to sustained progress?

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And there are two things I worry about
in this respect.

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First, while the walls have gone down
between societies,

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within societies, 
the walls are going up everywhere.

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All countries are experiencing 
rising inequality.

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Why is this?

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It's because the pace of progress 
is so fast at the frontier

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that this process of integration
-- some call it globalization --

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has led to such rapid change
that if you aren't on the frontier,

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if you don't have the skills, 
the mobility, the attitude to change,

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to adapt, to grab new things,
you're left further and further behind.

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If you're in the wrong place, 
with the wrong skills at the wrong time,

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or you're too old,
you're left further and further behind.

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And so we see in all societies 
rising inequality.

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And some people have been able to capture
the goods of globalization.

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They've been able to park their money,

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whether they are a corporation 
in Bermuda or somewhere,

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or an individual in Monaco 
or Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.

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And so governments are becoming 
less and less able

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to tax their citizens 
and tax their corporates

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and less able to fund education,
health, infrastructure,

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and the other things we need.

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And the second big problem
of this integration process

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is: when things connect,

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unfortunately,
not only good stuff connects.

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Rarely, bad stuff connects too.

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And so the question is how do we have 
this complex, dense, intertwined system

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without becoming overwhelmed by it?

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Are we able to manage
our interdependencies

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in ways that will be sustained
and benefit us,

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or will they overwhelm us?

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And this is both the intended
consequences which lead

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to unintended bads.

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Our intended consequence of using
more antibiotics around the world

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leading to antibiotic resistance.

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Or as our energy growth grows
around the world

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because people are escaping poverty,
leading to climate change.

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Or as our resource use increases
because people are consuming more food,

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leading to resource depletion.

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And the unintended consequences,
banks which spread around the globe

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becoming centers of cascading risk
and financial crisis.

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Airports spreading pandemics, what I call
the butterfly defect of globalization.

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The spreading of risk is not a new idea.

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We think in England that a rat coming
off a ship in Liverpool

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might have killed half the British
population in the Black Death.

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Early globalization leading 
to systemic risk.

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But what's new is the pace
and scale of the change.

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So the swine flu that starts 
in Mexico City

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in 160 countries in thirty days.

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And the emerging infections group
in the Oxford Martin School

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has modeled spread of this
with airline traffic

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and shown it exactly replicates.

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So the super-spreaders of the good
of globalization

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like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt, 
and other great airports

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become the super-spreaders of the bads,
in this case, pandemics.

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And in the cybersphere, of course,
we see this dramatically,

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that anything can be instantaneously
elsewhere, be it good or be it bad.

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In finance, we've seen a dramatic 
indication of this,

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this collapsing system starting 
from a subprime crisis in the US

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leading to 100 million people laid off
in work from work around the world.

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So what happens somewhere
dramatically affecting people

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on the other side of the world
in the same way that my life

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was shaped, but sometimes
with disastrous consequences.

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And what the financial system also teaches
us is the rising power of individuals.

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These new technologies give individuals
simply unprecedented powers.

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Barings Bank had existed for 200 years.

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It had withstood the most amazing
technological, political, and other changes,

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and one young man, Nick Leeson, 
having some fun, a bit of trading,

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managed to bring it down.

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And the same thing almost happened
in Société Générale with Jérôme Kerviel,

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JP Morgan, UBS, and many others.

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We see that these individuals
now have power in new ways.

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And of course, individuals can also,
in new ways, develop biopathogens

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using a DNA sequencing which
is going down exponentially in price,

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a single individual now
can build something,

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using a technology like a drone 
to distribute it,

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and kill perhaps tens, if not hundreds, 
of millions of people.

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This new capability, this new power
of individuals has changed

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so that nation states are becoming
less and less powerful

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relative to the power of individuals.

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And there are seven billion of us
growing to nine billion

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over the next 35 years.

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Within the cybersphere,
we see this dramatically,

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how small groups can cause mayhem,

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steal all our records, 
open our bank accounts,

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they'll be opening our front door locks,

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controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle 
communication, etc.

00:15:01.377 --> 00:15:07.302
Understanding how we build systems
which liberate us,

00:15:08.127 --> 00:15:12.807
and yet we do not become slaves 
or vulnerable to, is the central question.

00:15:13.531 --> 00:15:17.928
Can we create interdependent systems
where we are in control,

00:15:17.928 --> 00:15:19.358
and what does that mean?

00:15:19.680 --> 00:15:25.269
And that education process requires
a new understanding of responsibility.

00:15:25.631 --> 00:15:29.284
As these technologies pervade 
intoour bodies, on our bodies

00:15:29.284 --> 00:15:30.776
and everything we do,

00:15:30.776 --> 00:15:32.367
it becomes more and more important.

00:15:32.367 --> 00:15:35.282
Trust, integrity, judgment,

00:15:35.772 --> 00:15:39.207
these old things become 
more and more important.

00:15:39.520 --> 00:15:45.005
The financial crisis was characterized
by a number of remarkable things.

00:15:46.587 --> 00:15:52.298
Over 250,000 extremely well-paid
people in the central banks of the world

00:15:52.848 --> 00:15:58.447
in the IMF and other institutions
with this enormous amount of data

00:15:58.842 --> 00:16:00.309
do not see it coming.

00:16:01.287 --> 00:16:04.114
Too much data, too little integrity.

00:16:04.524 --> 00:16:06.641
And as machines begin to take our jobs

00:16:06.641 --> 00:16:11.523
-- and one of my groups in the Oxford
Martin School has said that 47% of US jobs

00:16:11.523 --> 00:16:15.112
will be lost to machine intelligence
over the next 20 years --

00:16:15.357 --> 00:16:19.578
people will increasingly see
machine intelligence as a threat

00:16:19.578 --> 00:16:23.316
not only to their bank accounts
and other systems,

00:16:23.316 --> 00:16:25.683
but to their jobs and to their careers.

00:16:25.970 --> 00:16:30.624
And so, how do we create education
systems where we are not vulnerable

00:16:31.278 --> 00:16:32.980
to automation taking our jobs?

00:16:32.980 --> 00:16:36.619
And the answer is, we need to do things
which are not automatable.

00:16:36.895 --> 00:16:38.156
What does that mean?

00:16:38.403 --> 00:16:45.444
It means creativity, dexterity, 
empathy, judgment

00:16:46.139 --> 00:16:49.948
and that's what will keep us 
different from machines

00:16:49.948 --> 00:16:51.907
for at least the next 50 years.

00:16:52.777 --> 00:16:57.492
So, creating an environment where 
machines complement our abilities,

00:16:57.782 --> 00:17:00.067
help us, do many of the things

00:17:00.067 --> 00:17:04.267
that are really, in many ways, 
inhumane for people to be doing,

00:17:04.665 --> 00:17:06.931
dangerous and others;

00:17:07.587 --> 00:17:10.870
help us be more effective, 
but don't supplant us.

00:17:11.341 --> 00:17:13.628
Being in Germany, we're reminded always

00:17:13.628 --> 00:17:17.603
that it's not that technologies exist
that people decide to adopt them.

00:17:17.857 --> 00:17:19.471
It's society's attitude.

00:17:19.471 --> 00:17:23.204
Germany has banned nuclear power,
It has banned GMOs.

00:17:23.530 --> 00:17:26.318
Many other places 
embrace these technologies.

00:17:27.075 --> 00:17:29.832
It's what we feel about these technologies
that matters.

00:17:29.832 --> 00:17:34.368
It's how we feel we can control them,
whether we feel that we're on top,

00:17:34.635 --> 00:17:37.363
which will shape the way 
that societies adopt them.

00:17:37.363 --> 00:17:41.753
And so, in education, it seems 
absolutely vital that we understand them.

00:17:41.753 --> 00:17:45.048
People need to understand
what genetic modification is.

00:17:45.048 --> 00:17:48.632
People need to understand
what DNA sequencing is.

00:17:48.632 --> 00:17:53.890
People need to understand these new, 
extremely powerful technologies,

00:17:53.890 --> 00:17:58.988
which will change the way we are
and the choices we face going forward.

00:17:58.988 --> 00:18:03.845
There will be societal choices:
do we want to create superhumans, or not?

00:18:04.079 --> 00:18:06.677
And if others do it, 
what is our attitude to that?

00:18:06.944 --> 00:18:11.019
These are choices that we will face,
let alone the next generation.

00:18:11.019 --> 00:18:14.346
So this handshake, 
this understanding of technology,

00:18:14.346 --> 00:18:18.346
the literacy becomes 
more and more important,

00:18:18.346 --> 00:18:20.227
as well as the interconnectivity.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
As we will become wealthier,
as we will become more connected,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
the spillovers of our choices
get stronger and stronger.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And we see this in many, many areas.
We see --

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
-- sorry, I just want to go back to the 
slide before with the video, if I may --

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(people arguing animatedly around
a big tuna in Japanese, then clapping)

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Goldin) This is the tuna market in Tokyo.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
This tuna was sold for about 1.5 million Euro.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
This the market's response to the scarcity
of a natural resource.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
The price goes up, the tuna don't know
how much they're worth, of course.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
They don't reproduce more 
when they're worth more.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Hi-tech fishermen go and chase
the remaining tuna

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and you get extinction.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And the same thing, of course, with rhino
and any natural resource.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Natural resources don't understand 
markets.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
they are irrelevant to them.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and so, as we go forward and we have
a market system which determines choice,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
on the one hand,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and more and more people 
with more wealth

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
are claiming resources 
through this system.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But on the other hand, we have 
the supply of natural resources,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
determined in totally different ways,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
we have a very serious problem 
of extinction.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Governments are not 
very smart at this either.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Thinking short term, 
they extract resource,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
often for the good of their people,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
but collectively, in the long term, 
a disaster.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
This is the Aral Sea.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Peop-- countries, six countries
doing the right thing,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
drawing water to feed their people.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Collectively, a disaster.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
The examples of success 
-- and the Mediterranean is one --

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
where citizens, scientists, politicians,
civil society movements came together

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and saved this.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And with climate change, of course,
we have this dramatic problem.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
What's happening in Paris this week
is of huge significance

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to the future of the planet.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But it's not enough;
we need to do much more.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And we need to do it in a way 
that allows people around the world

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to benefit from the things that we have.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
We've created 90% of the problem
in the rich countries

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
but 80%, already 70% of the flows, (check)
growing to 80 over the next 15 years,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
will be coming from emerging markets.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
So how do we let the rest of the world
clime the energy curve,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
while ensuring we keep global warming
to below 2 degrees?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
These collective decisions, increasingly,
will shape the way that the planet moves.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Who's going to do this?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
This set of institutions is totally unfit
for purpose.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
It was built in a different era,
with different power structures.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
It is unable to meet 
the challenges of our time,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and in some areas, like cyber (check)
there is no institution at all.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Small changes, 
largely rearranging the furniture.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(laughter)

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Goldin) So I think of us as nations,
like in a cabin within a big ocean liner,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
each in our little cabin, drifting
with no captain, on Planet Earth's deck.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Again, part of this is the result
of extroardinarily positive changes.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
We're no longer in a world
where twelve white men, smoking cigars,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
could sit in their room and decide
the earth's future,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
as they did after the Second World War.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
New power balances mean we have 
to have a transition in power.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
But we're in this dangerous time
where the old powers no longer rule

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and the new powers have not been able
to step up to the plate.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
So it's a time of transition, it's a time 
where the big institutions,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
the best of them like the IMF,
have proved themselves

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
totally unfit for purpose.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
It requires citizens, it requires 
thinking in new ways

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to overcome this problem.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Thinking which overcomes short-termism,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
be it in business or 
be it in our own decisions.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
We need to think long, 
because we're here for the long term

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and the kids of today will be here
for at least the next century.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
How we do this and how we realize
that our own decisions, increasingly,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
are entangled with others'
is of course the critical question.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
What we see in the politics
is a reversal.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
People feel the future is scary,
uncertain.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
They feel that openness and connectivity
makes them more vulnerable,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and they're right.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And so, we see this political revulsion
with extremism growing

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
in all countries, but certainly in Europe
and in the US.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
People wanting to return to an age
which they romanticize as being better:

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
protectionist, nationalist, xenophobic.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
It's profoundly misguided.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
In order to ensure that 
we can manage this world,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
we need to be more connected, not less.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
We need to ensure that we're able
to come together, but be protected;

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
resilient, thinking together, and insuring
that through our decisions

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
we not only protect our own futures
but protect those of others, and the planet.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Thank you.
(Applause)

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
If we can do all that, we can rock on
to a happy old age.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Moderator) (laughs) Thank you very much
indeed.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
There's (check) a lot of comments here
but there is one theme that is emerging.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Let me just give you this one comment
from Anastasia Brua (check), I think it was?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
It's just nipped out as --

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
I want to pick up actually, really,
on what David said right at the beginning

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
about "Don't be afraid, 
don't be in denial"

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and this need for change,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and what you said about the new normal
will feel very strange

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
in a few years' time,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
because Jeff Kortenbush (check)
makes this comment:

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
"A key skill set should be about 
adapting to rapid change,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
"to learn, unlearn and relearn."

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And the debate tonight is going to be
about 21st century skills

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
are not being taught in schools
and should be.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Now, much of the work in the Martin School
is about behavior

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and about understanding 
how the brain works

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and adaptability and the fears of 
the second (check) generation

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to be able to adapt to this new shift,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
which is accelerating probably even faster
than most realize.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
How optimistic can we be that actually,
our human capacity can cope with this?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Goldin) Yes, this is 
the most difficult question.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
My sense is that the world is moving
at a revolutionary speed

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and we and our institutions are
evolutionary very slow adapters.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
My hope is that this concentration
of knowledge which is being unleashed

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
through the new connectivity and literacy
will allow us to leapfrog.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And we do see that, 
and we see signs of this in so many ways.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
So there's all sorts of exciting things,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
like the things we heard about 
earlier today,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
that are happening.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
The big question, and I think it's going
to be partly a question that's resolved

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
in Paris this week, is can we learn
to cooperate on these big challenges.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Are we able to give up 
some independence and sovereignty

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
as individuals or as countries,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to ensure that collectively, 
we'll all have a bigger future.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Are we able take longer term--
(Moderator) What about the .... (check)

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and the ability and -- we've only got
about 3 minutes to run now --

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
but what about the ability 
of the human being

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to cope with this enormity, particularly
to adapt to the speed

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
that the next generation, 
through the education process,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
will be expecting?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Goldin) Humans can do anything.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
In my college at Oxford Balliol, we had
a third of the college giving their lives

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
in the First World War,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and about 20% of the college giving 
their lives in the Second World War

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to defend ideals of freedom.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
People are prepared to make the most
extraordinary sacrifices,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
to change their lives fundamentally,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
if they believe that 
it's the right thing to do.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Moderator) Can they do it?
(Goldin), Yes, they can.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
We've done it before, we can do it again:
I'm absolutely convinced.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Applause)

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Moderator) But again, I'm picking up and
trying to bring together

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
a number of themes here, but that --
what David said right at the beginning:

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
"Don't be afraid, don't be in denial."

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
That is achievable, is it, that kind of
reversal with this scale of change,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and the shift, 
the acceleration taking place?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Goldin) Yes. I think one has to 
open one's eyes

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
before one can see 
what's happening around.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And this pace of change is really 
what it's about.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Are we able to appreciate

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
this extraordinary moment in history
we're in?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
This age of discovery, are we able
to recognize it for what it is,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and seize the opportunities
that come with it?

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
(Moderator) Yes, I'm going to stop there.
I'm afraid you - because you ran too much,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
25 minutes, so the 30 minutes is up, so
I have to stop you at that point

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
because some people have begun to leave,
there's coffee and everything else

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and a very tight schedule.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Remember, this is going to be part of 
a big debate later tonight

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and also, let me underscore that 
everyone here can talk more about it.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And indeed, David Price is signing 
his book,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
"How will we work, live and learn
in the future?" at 13:05,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and that's in Potsdam 3,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and "Information doesn't want to be free",
Cory is going to be speaking about that

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
on copyright in the digital age, as well,
at 12 o'clock.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
So, plenty: we've really burdened you
with an enormous number of concepts.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
And David, can I tell you as well,

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
there are large numbers of people 
who sent messages, admiring your battle

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
and how you've won your battle on health.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
Can I thank you all very much indeed, 
and also for contributing

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
some important comments and questions
from the floor.

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
It's coffee time.
(Applause)

99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999
[Recordings of this session will be 
uploaded to www.online-educa.com] 28:31