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I'm in the business
of safeguarding secrets,

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and this includes your secrets.

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Cryptographers are
the first line of defense

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in an ongoing war that's been
raging for centuries,

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a war between codemakers and codebreakers.

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And this is a war on information.

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The modern battlefield
for information is digital,

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and it wages across your phones,

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your computers and the internet.

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Our job is to create systems that scramble
your emails and credit card numbers,

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your phone calls and text messages,

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and that includes those saucy selfies,

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so that all of this information
can only be de-scrambled

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by the recipient that it's intended for.

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Now until very recently,

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we thought we'd won this war for good.

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Right now, each of your smartphones
is using encryption

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that we thought was unbreakable
and that was going to remain that way.

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We were wrong,

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because quantum computers are coming

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and they're going to change
the game completely.

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Throughout history,
cryptography and codebreaking

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has always been this game
of cat and mouse.

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Back in the 1500s,

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Queen Mary of the Scots thought she
was sending encrypted letters

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that only her soldiers could decipher,

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but Queen Elizabeth of England,

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she had codebreakers
that were all over it.

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They decrypted Mary's letters,

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saw that she was attempting
to assassinate Elizabeth,

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and subsequently
they chopped Mary's head off.

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A few centuries later, in World War II,

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the Nazis communicated
using the Engima code,

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a much more complicated encryption scheme
that they thought was unbreakable,

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but then good old Alan Turing,

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the same guy who invented
what we now call the modern computer,

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he built a machine and used it
to break Enigma.

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He deciphered the German messages

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and helped to bring Hitler
and his Third Reich to a halt.

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And so the story has gone
throughout the centuries.

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Cryptographers
improve their encryption,

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and then codebreakers fight back
and they find a way to break it.

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This war's gone back and forth,
and it's been pretty neck-and-neck.

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That was, until the 1970s,

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when some cryptographers
made a huge breakthrough.

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They discovered an extremely
powerful way to do encryption

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called public key cryptography.

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Now, unlike all of the prior methods
used throughout history,

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it doesn't require that the two parties

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that want to send each other
confidential information

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have exchanged the secret key beforehand.

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The magic of public key cryptography
is that it allows us to connect securely

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with anyone in the world

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whether we've exchanged
data before or not,

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and to do it so fast that you and I
don't even realize that it's happening.

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Whether you're texting your mate
to catch up for a beer,

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or you're a bank

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that's transferring billions
of dollars to another bank,

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modern encryption enables us
to send data that can be secured

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in a matter of milliseconds.

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The brilliant idea that makes
this magic possible,

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it relies on hard mathematical problems.

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in a matter of milliseconds.

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Cryptographers are deeply interested
in things that calculators can't do.

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For example, calculators can multiply
any two numbers you like,

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no matter how big the size,

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but going back the other way,

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starting with the product

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and then asking, which two numbers
multiply to give this one,

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that's actually a really hard problem.

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If I asked you to find
which two-digit numbers

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multiply to give 851,
even with a calculator,

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most people in this room
would have a hard time

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finding the answer by the time
I'm finished with this talk.

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And if I make the numbers a little larger,

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then there's no calculator on Earth

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that can do this.

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In fact, even the world's
fastest supercomputer

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would take longer
than the life age of the universe

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to find the two numbers
that multiply to give this one.

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And this problem,
called integer factorization,

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is exactly what each of your smartphones
and laptops is using right now

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to keep your data secure.

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This is the basis of modern encryption,

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and the fact that all of the computing
power on the planet can't solve it,

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that's the reason we cryptographers

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thought we'd found a way to stay ahead
of the codebreakers for good.

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Perhaps we got a little cocky,

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because just when we thought
the war was won,

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a bunch of 20th century physicists
came to the party

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and they revealed
that the laws of the universe,

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the same laws that modern
cryptography was built upon,

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they aren't as we thought they were.

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We thought that one object couldn't be
in two places at the same time.

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It's not the case.

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We thought nothing can possibly spin
clockwise and anti-clockwise

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simultaneously,

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but that's incorrect.

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And we thought that two objects

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on opposite sides of the universe,
light years away from each other,

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they can't possible influence
one another instantaneously.

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We were wrong again.

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And isn't that always the way
life seems to go?

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Just when you think
you've got everything covered,

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you've got your ducks in a row,

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a bunch of physicists come along

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and reveal that the fundamental
laws of the universe

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are completely different
to what you thought?

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(Laughter)

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And it screws everything up.

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See, in the teeny tiny subatomic realm,

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at the level of electrons and protons,

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the classical laws of physics,

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the ones that we all know and love,

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they go out the window,

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and it's here that the laws
of quantum mechanics kick in.

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In quantum mechanics, an electron

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can be spinning clockwise
and anti-clockwise at the same time

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and a proton can be in two places at once.

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It sounds like science fiction,

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but that's only because
the crazy quantum nature of our universe,

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it hides itself from us.

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And it stayed hidden from us
until the 20th century.

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But now that we've seen it,
the whole world is in an arms race

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to try to build a quantum computer,

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a computer that can harness the power
of this weird and wacky quantum behavior.

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These things are so revolutionary

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and so powerful

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that they'll make today's
fastest supercomputer

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look useless in comparison.

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In fact, for certain problems
that are of great interest to us,

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today's fastest supercomputer
is closer to an abacus

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than to a quantum computer.

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That's right, I'm talking about
those little wooden things with the beads.

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Quantum computers can simulate
chemical and biological processes

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that are far beyond the reach
of our classical computers,

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and as such, they promise to help us solve
some of our planet's biggest problems.

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They're going to help us
combat global hunger,

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to tackle climate change,

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to find cures for diseases and pandemics
for which we've so far been unsuccessful,

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to create superhuman
artificial intelligence,

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and perhaps even more important
than all of those things,

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they're going to help us understand
the very nature of our universe.

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But with this incredible potential

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comes an incredible risk.

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Remember those big numbers
I talked about earlier?

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I'm not talking about 851.

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In fact, if anyone in here
has been distracted

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trying to find those factors,

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I'm going to put you out of your misery
and tell you that it's 23 times 37.

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(Laughter)

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I'm talking about the much
bigger number that followed it.

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While today's fastest supercomputer
couldn't find those factors

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in the life's age of the universe,

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a quantum computer
could easily factorize numbers

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way, way bigger than that one.

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Quantum computers will break
all of the encryption

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currently used to protect
you and I from hackers,

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and they'll do it easily.

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Let me put it this way:

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if quantum computing was a spear,

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then modern encryption,

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the same unbreakable system
that's protected us for decades,

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it would be like a shield
made of tissue paper.

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Anyone with access to a quantum computer

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will have the master key to unlock
anything they like in our digital world.

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They could steal money from banks

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and control economies.

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They could power off hospitals
or launch nukes,

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or they could just sit back
and watch all of us on our webcams

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without any of us knowing
that this is happening.

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Now, the fundamental unit of information
on all of the computers we're used to,

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like this one,

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it's called a bit.

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A single bit can be one of two states.

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It can be a zero or it can be a one.

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When I FaceTime my mum
from the other side of the world,

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and she's going to kill me
for having this slide (Laughter)

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we're actually just sending each other
long sequences of zeroes and ones

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that bounce from computer to computer,
from satellite to satellite,

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transmitting our data at a rapid pace.

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Bits are certainly very useful.

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In fact, anything
we currently do with technology

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is indebted to the usefulness of bits.

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But we're starting to realize
that bits are really poor

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at simulating complex
molecules and particles,

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and this is because in some sense

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subatomic processes can be doing
two or more opposing things

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at the same time

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as they follow these bizarre
rules of quantum mechanics.

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So late last century,

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some really brainy physicists
had this ingenious idea:

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to instead build computers
that are founded

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on the principles of quantum mechanics.

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Now, the fundamental unit of information
of a quantum computer,

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it's called a qubit.

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It stands for "quantum bit."

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Instead of having just two states,
like zero or one,

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a qubit can be an infinite
number of states,

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and this corresponds to it being
some combination of both zero and one

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at the same time,

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a phenomenon that we call superposition.

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And when we have two qubits
in superposition,

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we're actually working across
all four combinations

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of zero-zero, zero-one,
one-zero and one-one.

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With three qubits,

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we're working in superposition
across eight combinations,

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and so on.

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Each time we add a single qubit,

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we double the number of combinations

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that we can work with
in superposition at the same time.

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And so when we scale up to work
with many qubits,

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we can work with an exponential
number of combinations

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at the same time.

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And this just hints at where the power
of quantum computing is coming from.

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Now, in modern encryption,

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our secret keys,

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like the two factors
of that larger number,

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they're just long sequences
of zeroes and ones.

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To find them, a classical computer

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must go through every single combination

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one after the other

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until it finds the one that works
and breaks our encryption.

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But on a quantum computer,

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with enough qubits in superposition,

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information can be extracted
from all combinations at the same time.

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In very few steps, a quantum computer

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can brush aside all of
the incorrect combinations,

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home in on the correct one,

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and then unlock our treasured secrets.

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Now, at the crazy quantum level,

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something truly incredible
is happening here.

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The conventional wisdom
held by many leading physicists --

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and you've got to stay
with me on this one --

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is that each combination is actually
examined by its own quantum computer

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inside its very own parallel universe.

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Each of these combinations,
they add up like waves in a pool of water.

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The combinations that are wrong,

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they cancel each other out,

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and the combinations that are right,

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they reinforce and amplify each other.

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So at the end of
the quantum computing program,

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all that's left is the correct answer

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that we can then observe
here in this universe.

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Now if that doesn't make
complete sense to you, don't stress.

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(Laughter)

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You're in good company.

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99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
Niels Bohr, one of
the pioneers of this field,

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99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999
he once said that anyone
who could contemplate quantum mechanics

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without being profoundly shocked,
they haven't understood it.

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(Laughter)

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But you get an idea
of what we're up against

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and why it's now up to us cryptographers

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to really step it up.

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And we have to do it fast,

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because quantum computers,

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they already exist in labs
all over the world.

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Fortunately, at this minute,

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they only exist
at a relatively small scale,

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still too small to break
our much larger cryptographic keys,

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but we might not be safe for long.

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Some folks believe that secret
government agencies

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have already built a big enough one

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and they just haven't told anyone yet.

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Some punters say
they're more like 10 years off.

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Some people say it's more like 30.

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And you might think that
if quantum computers are 10 years away,

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surely that's enough time
for us cryptographers

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to figure it out and
to secure the internet in time.

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But unfortunately it's not that easy.

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Even if we ignore the many years
that it takes to standardize and deploy

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and then roll out
new encryption technology,

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in some ways we may already be too late.

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Smart digital criminals
and government agencies

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may already be storing
our most sensitive encrypted data

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in anticipation for
the quantum future ahead.

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The messages of foreign leaders,

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of war generals,

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or of individuals who question power,

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they're encrypted for now,

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but as soon as the day comes

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that someone gets their hands
on a quantum computer,

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they can retroactively break
anything from the past.

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In certain government
and financial sectors

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or in military organizations,

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sensitive data has got
to remain classified for 25 years.

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So if a quantum computer
really will exist in 10 years,

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then these guys are already
15 years too late

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to quantum-proof their encryption.

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So while many scientists around the world

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are racing to try to build
a quantum computer,

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us cryptographers are urgently
looking to reinvent encryption

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to protect us long before that day comes.

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We're looking for new,
hard mathematical problems.

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We're looking for problems that,
just like factorization,

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can be used on our smartphones
and on our laptops today.

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But unlike factorization,
we need these problems to be so hard

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that they're even unbreakable
with a quantum computer.

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In recent years, we've been digging
around a much wider realm of mathematics

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to look for such problems.

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We've been looking at numbers and objects

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that are far more exotic
and far more abstract

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than the ones that you and I are used to,

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like the ones on our calculators.

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And we believe we've found
some geometric problems

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that just might do the trick.

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Now, unlike those two-
and three-dimensional geometric problems

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that we used to have to try to solve
with pen and graph paper in high school,

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most of these problems are defined
in well over 500 dimensions.

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So not only are they a little hard
to depict and solve on graph paper,

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but we believe they're even
out of the reach of a quantum computer.

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So though it's early days,

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it's here that we are putting our hope
as we try to secure our digital world

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moving into its quantum future.

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Just like all of the other scientists,

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we cryptographers are tremendously excited

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at the potential of living in a world
alongside quantum computers.

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They could be such a force for good.

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But no matter what
technological future we live in,

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our secrets

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will always be a part of our humanity,

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and that is worth protecting.

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Thanks.

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(Applause)