WEBVTT 00:00:00.100 --> 00:00:02.050 ♪ (música) ♪ 00:00:03.620 --> 00:00:05.700 - [Narradora] Bienvenidos a Nobel Conversations. 00:00:07.000 --> 00:00:08.521 En este episodio, Josh Angrist y Guido Imbens 00:00:08.521 --> 00:00:09.282 están con Isaiah Andrews para discutir y discrepar 00:00:09.282 --> 00:00:09.662 sobre el papel del aprendizaje automático 00:00:09.662 --> 00:00:10.043 en la econometría aplicada. 00:00:10.043 --> 00:00:11.859 - [Isaiah] Entonces, por supuesto que hay muchos temas 00:00:11.859 --> 00:00:12.767 en los que ustedes están muy de acuerdo, pero me gustaría pasar a uno 00:00:12.767 --> 00:00:13.675 en el que tal vez tengan algunas discrepancias. 00:00:13.675 --> 00:00:15.127 Me gustaría escuchar algunas de sus opiniones 00:00:15.127 --> 00:00:15.853 sobre el aprendizaje automático 00:00:15.853 --> 00:00:16.580 y el papel que está desempeñando y va a desempeñar en la economía. 00:00:17.897 --> 00:00:18.833 - [Guido] He consultado algunos datos como el propietario----------------------. 00:00:18.833 --> 00:00:19.301 Vemos que no hay ningún documento publicado allí. 00:00:19.301 --> 00:00:19.535 Se hizo un experimento sobre algún algoritmo de búsqueda 00:00:19.535 --> 00:00:19.652 y la cuestión era... 00:00:19.652 --> 00:00:19.710 se trataba de clasificar cosas y cambiar la clasificación. 00:00:19.710 --> 00:00:19.739 Y estaba más o menos claro que iba a haber mucha heterogeneidad. 00:00:19.739 --> 00:00:19.754 Si buscas, digamos, una foto de Britney Spears -- 00:00:19.754 --> 00:00:19.761 realmente no importa dónde la clasifiques----------------------------------- porque vas a encontrar lo que estás buscando, 00:00:19.761 --> 00:00:19.765 ya sea que la pongas en la primera, segunda o tercera posición del ranking. 00:00:19.765 --> 00:00:19.767 Pero si estás buscando el mejor libro de econometría, 00:00:19.767 --> 00:00:19.768 si pones tu libro en primer lugar o en el décimo, 00:00:19.768 --> 00:00:19.768 eso va a suponer una gran diferencia 00:00:19.768 --> 00:00:19.768 en la frecuencia con la que la gente va a hacer clic en él. 00:00:19.768 --> 00:00:19.769 Así que ahí... 00:00:22.313 --> 00:00:23.276 [Josh] ¿Por qué necesito el aprendizaje automático para descubrir eso? 00:00:23.276 --> 00:00:24.240 Parece que --porque puedo descubrirlo simplemente.----------------------- 00:00:24.240 --> 00:00:24.984 - [Guido] En general -- 00:00:24.984 --> 00:00:25.356 - [Josh] Había un montón de posibles... 00:00:25.356 --> 00:00:25.542 - Quieres pensar en que hay un montón de características de los artículos, 00:00:25.542 --> 00:00:25.635 que quieres entender lo que impulsa la heterogeneidad en el efecto de -- 00:00:25.635 --> 00:00:25.681 - Pero solo estás prediciendo. 00:00:25.681 --> 00:00:25.704 En cierto sentido, estás resolviendo un problema de marketing. 00:00:25.704 --> 00:00:25.716 - No, es un efecto causal, 00:00:25.716 --> 00:00:25.722 - Es causal, pero no tiene contenido científico. 00:00:25.722 --> 00:00:25.725 Piensa en... 00:00:25.725 --> 00:00:25.726 - No, pero hay cosas similares en el ámbito médico. 00:00:25.726 --> 00:00:25.727 Si haces un experimento, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 puedes estar muy interesado en si el tratamiento funciona 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 para algunos grupos o no. 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 Y tienes un montón de características individuales, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 y quieres buscar sistemáticamente... 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 - Sí. Soy escéptico sobre esa... 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 esa especie de idea de que hay un efecto causal personal 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 que me debería importar 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 y que el aprendizaje automático puede descubrirlo de alguna manera que sea útil. 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 Así que piensa en -- 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 he hecho un montón de trabajo en las escuelas, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 ir a, digamos, una escuela charter,------------------------------------------------- 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 una escuela privada financiada con fondos públicos, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 efectivamente, que es libre de estructurar su propio plan de estudios para el contexto allí. 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 Algunos tipos de escuelas chárter generan espectaculares ganancias de rendimiento 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 y en el conjunto de datos que produce ese resultado, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 tengo un montón de covariables. 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 Así que tengo las puntuaciones de referencia 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 y tengo los antecedentes familiares, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 la educación de los padres, el sexo del niño, la raza del niño. 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 Y, bueno, en cuanto reúno media docena de ellas, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 tengo un espacio de muy alta dimensión. 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 Definitivamente me interesan las características del curso 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 de ese efecto del tratamiento, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 como por ejemplo si es mejor para las personas que provienen de familias con menores ingresos. 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 Me cuesta creer que haya una aplicación para la versión de muy alta dimensión de eso, 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 en la que descubrí que para los niños no blancos 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 que tienen ingresos familiares altos 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.727 pero puntuaciones de referencia en el tercer cuartil 00:00:25.727 --> 00:00:25.728 y que solo fueron a la escuela pública en el tercer grado pero no en el sexto. 00:00:25.728 --> 00:00:26.305 Así que eso es lo que produce ese análisis de alta dimensión. 00:00:26.305 --> 00:00:26.883 Es una declaración condicional muy elaborada. 00:00:30.200 --> 00:00:33.352 Hay dos cosas que están mal, en mi opinión. 00:00:33.352 --> 00:00:34.251 En primer lugar, no lo veo como... 00:00:34.251 --> 00:00:34.700 no puedo imaginar por qué es procesable. 00:00:34.700 --> 00:00:34.925 No sé por qué querrías actuar sobre ello. 00:00:34.925 --> 00:00:35.037 Y también sé que hay algún modelo alternativo que encaja casi igual, que lo invierte todo. 00:00:35.037 --> 00:00:35.093 Porque el aprendizaje automático 00:00:35.093 --> 00:00:35.121 no me dice que este es realmente el predictor que importa -- 00:00:35.121 --> 00:00:35.150 sólo me dice que este es un buen predictor. 00:00:36.122 --> 00:00:38.159 00:00:38.159 --> 00:00:39.500 00:00:39.700 --> 00:00:41.327 00:00:42.901 --> 00:00:45.600 00:00:45.900 --> 00:00:47.290 00:00:48.400 --> 00:00:50.610 00:00:52.161 --> 00:00:56.282 00:00:57.831 --> 00:01:00.617 00:01:00.617 --> 00:01:02.493 00:01:02.493 --> 00:01:05.500 00:01:06.200 --> 00:01:07.867 00:01:07.867 --> 00:01:09.920 00:01:10.100 --> 00:01:12.500 00:01:13.300 --> 00:01:16.430 00:01:16.430 --> 00:01:18.100 00:01:18.600 --> 00:01:20.979 00:01:21.829 --> 00:01:23.417 00:01:23.417 --> 00:01:27.119 00:01:27.119 --> 00:01:29.195 00:01:29.195 --> 00:01:30.435 00:01:30.435 --> 00:01:32.100 00:01:32.100 --> 00:01:35.045 00:01:35.490 --> 00:01:37.280 00:01:37.610 --> 00:01:41.682 00:01:42.177 --> 00:01:43.427 00:01:43.427 --> 00:01:45.008 00:01:45.008 --> 00:01:47.665 00:01:47.665 --> 00:01:49.381 00:01:49.381 --> 00:01:51.911 00:01:51.911 --> 00:01:53.141 00:01:53.657 --> 00:01:57.300 00:01:58.000 --> 00:02:01.300 00:02:01.300 --> 00:02:03.900 00:02:03.900 --> 00:02:06.143 00:02:06.143 --> 00:02:08.000 00:02:08.000 --> 00:02:09.500 00:02:09.500 --> 00:02:12.603 00:02:12.603 --> 00:02:14.000 00:02:14.000 --> 00:02:15.740 00:02:15.740 --> 00:02:17.259 00:02:17.259 --> 00:02:20.045 00:02:20.045 --> 00:02:22.336 00:02:22.336 --> 00:02:24.428 00:02:25.225 --> 00:02:27.392 00:02:27.392 --> 00:02:29.399 00:02:29.399 --> 00:02:31.369 00:02:31.369 --> 00:02:33.703 00:02:33.703 --> 00:02:36.400 00:02:36.400 --> 00:02:37.800 00:02:37.800 --> 00:02:41.353 00:02:41.353 --> 00:02:43.207 00:02:43.576 --> 00:02:45.800 00:02:45.800 --> 00:02:49.795 00:02:49.795 --> 00:02:51.900 00:02:52.300 --> 00:02:55.199 00:02:55.199 --> 00:02:56.457 00:02:56.457 --> 00:02:58.741 00:02:58.741 --> 00:03:02.046 00:03:02.600 --> 00:03:05.760 00:03:07.273 --> 00:03:09.872 00:03:09.872 --> 00:03:12.406 00:03:12.406 --> 00:03:14.971 00:03:14.971 --> 00:03:17.800 00:03:18.166 --> 00:03:21.785 00:03:21.785 --> 00:03:23.000 00:03:23.000 --> 00:03:25.796 00:03:25.800 --> 00:03:28.100 00:03:28.300 --> 00:03:30.605 00:03:30.605 --> 00:03:31.797 00:03:31.797 --> 00:03:34.000 00:03:34.600 --> 00:03:36.600 00:03:36.600 --> 00:03:39.455 00:03:39.455 --> 00:03:41.200 00:03:41.800 --> 00:03:43.398 00:03:43.398 --> 00:03:45.350 00:03:45.350 --> 00:03:48.582 00:03:48.582 --> 00:03:50.965 00:03:51.486 --> 00:03:54.870 00:03:54.870 --> 00:03:57.586 00:03:57.940 --> 00:04:00.186 00:04:00.186 --> 00:04:01.633 00:04:01.633 --> 00:04:02.735 00:04:03.400 --> 00:04:08.100 00:04:09.777 --> 00:04:11.544 00:04:11.544 --> 00:04:13.466 00:04:13.466 --> 00:04:15.740 00:04:15.740 --> 00:04:18.614 00:04:18.614 --> 00:04:22.765 00:04:24.367 --> 00:04:27.600 00:04:28.200 --> 00:04:30.232 00:04:30.232 --> 00:04:31.700 00:04:34.169 --> 00:04:36.034 00:04:36.034 --> 00:04:37.600 00:04:37.600 --> 00:04:39.100 00:04:39.100 --> 00:04:40.900 00:04:40.900 --> 00:04:44.011 00:04:44.011 --> 00:04:46.955 00:04:47.906 --> 00:04:49.078 00:04:49.078 --> 00:04:51.400 00:04:51.700 --> 00:04:53.800 00:04:54.100 --> 00:04:56.600 00:04:57.250 --> 00:04:59.102 00:04:59.102 --> 00:05:04.918 00:05:06.315 --> 00:05:09.656 00:05:09.656 --> 00:05:11.069 00:05:12.252 --> 00:05:14.330 00:05:15.469 --> 00:05:17.900 00:05:18.400 --> 00:05:21.072 00:05:21.467 --> 00:05:23.996 00:05:23.996 --> 00:05:25.440 00:05:25.440 --> 00:05:27.200 00:05:27.200 --> 00:05:28.679 00:05:28.679 --> 00:05:30.833 00:05:30.833 --> 00:05:32.334 00:05:33.057 --> 00:05:34.771 00:05:35.820 --> 00:05:38.147 00:05:38.147 --> 00:05:41.187 00:05:41.187 --> 00:05:43.119 00:05:43.119 --> 00:05:45.347 00:05:45.347 --> 00:05:47.028 00:05:47.028 --> 00:05:49.487 00:05:49.917 --> 00:05:52.022 00:05:52.022 --> 00:05:53.704 00:05:54.156 --> 00:05:55.189 00:05:55.189 --> 00:05:56.555 00:05:56.555 --> 00:06:00.452 00:06:01.639 --> 00:06:04.519 00:06:04.519 --> 00:06:06.738 00:06:07.300 --> 00:06:10.769 00:06:10.769 --> 00:06:11.836 00:06:11.836 --> 00:06:15.000 00:06:15.200 --> 00:06:18.232 00:06:18.795 --> 00:06:20.090 00:06:20.090 --> 00:06:24.000 00:06:24.400 --> 00:06:28.183 00:06:28.183 --> 00:06:30.383 00:06:30.383 --> 00:06:32.100 00:06:32.100 --> 00:06:34.700 00:06:37.166 --> 00:06:39.416 00:06:39.697 --> 00:06:41.950 00:06:41.950 --> 00:06:44.930 00:06:44.930 --> 00:06:46.180 00:06:46.180 --> 00:06:47.956 00:06:47.956 --> 00:06:49.227 00:06:49.227 --> 00:06:50.700 00:06:51.600 --> 00:06:55.488 00:06:56.100 --> 00:06:58.121 00:06:58.121 --> 00:07:00.100 00:07:00.100 --> 00:07:01.900 00:07:02.100 --> 00:07:04.900 00:07:05.300 --> 00:07:08.921 00:07:08.921 --> 00:07:11.787 00:07:12.410 --> 00:07:14.975 00:07:15.925 --> 00:07:17.561 00:07:17.561 --> 00:07:21.700 00:07:21.930 --> 00:07:23.020 00:07:23.020 --> 00:07:24.600 00:07:24.600 --> 00:07:25.912 00:07:25.912 --> 00:07:28.100 00:07:28.100 --> 00:07:29.807 00:07:29.807 --> 00:07:30.908 00:07:30.908 --> 00:07:32.660 00:07:32.660 --> 00:07:34.182 00:07:34.700 --> 00:07:36.947 00:07:36.947 --> 00:07:39.350 00:07:41.354 --> 00:07:43.288 00:07:43.288 --> 00:07:46.112 00:07:46.112 --> 00:07:47.941 00:07:47.941 --> 00:07:51.415 00:07:51.415 --> 00:07:54.003 00:07:54.003 --> 00:07:55.636 00:07:55.636 --> 00:07:57.612 00:07:57.612 --> 00:07:59.579 00:08:00.900 --> 00:08:03.527 00:08:03.527 --> 00:08:06.916 00:08:06.916 --> 00:08:09.453 00:08:09.453 --> 00:08:12.200 00:08:12.400 --> 00:08:19.208 00:08:20.700 --> 00:08:23.734 00:08:23.734 --> 00:08:25.700 00:08:27.351 --> 00:08:31.600 00:08:31.800 --> 00:08:37.133 00:08:37.133 --> 00:08:40.948 00:08:41.500 --> 00:08:42.697 00:08:42.697 --> 00:08:45.300 00:08:45.300 --> 00:08:47.664 00:08:47.664 --> 00:08:49.610 00:08:49.610 --> 00:08:51.300 00:08:51.300 --> 00:08:53.700 00:08:54.100 --> 00:08:57.782 00:08:57.782 --> 00:09:00.269 00:09:00.269 --> 00:09:03.375 00:09:04.400 --> 00:09:06.531 00:09:06.531 --> 00:09:08.200 00:09:08.200 --> 00:09:10.000 00:09:10.900 --> 00:09:12.804 00:09:12.804 --> 00:09:14.501 00:09:14.501 --> 00:09:16.853 00:09:17.384 --> 00:09:19.933 00:09:19.933 --> 00:09:23.000 00:09:23.300 --> 00:09:25.839 00:09:25.839 --> 00:09:29.292 00:09:29.292 --> 00:09:32.200 00:09:32.944 --> 00:09:35.113 00:09:35.113 --> 00:09:37.600 00:09:38.708 --> 00:09:40.825 00:09:40.825 --> 00:09:42.600 00:09:42.900 --> 00:09:46.807 00:09:49.173 --> 00:09:51.100 00:09:51.944 --> 00:09:55.096 00:09:55.096 --> 00:09:57.100 00:09:57.400 --> 00:09:59.100 00:09:59.300 --> 00:10:01.096 00:10:02.900 --> 00:10:06.435 00:10:06.435 --> 00:10:09.424 00:10:10.206 --> 00:10:11.842 00:10:12.591 --> 00:10:14.033 00:10:14.403 --> 00:10:15.907 00:10:15.907 --> 00:10:17.289 00:10:17.289 --> 00:10:18.410 00:10:18.410 --> 00:10:20.001 00:10:20.001 --> 00:10:22.054 00:10:22.700 --> 00:10:26.823 00:10:27.555 --> 00:10:29.500 00:10:29.800 --> 00:10:31.028 00:10:31.591 --> 00:10:34.926 00:10:35.315 --> 00:10:37.151 00:10:38.761 --> 00:10:42.664 00:10:42.664 --> 00:10:46.560 00:10:48.800 --> 00:10:53.289 00:10:53.289 --> 00:10:55.700 00:10:56.300 --> 00:10:59.420 00:11:00.873 --> 00:11:02.055 00:11:02.900 --> 00:11:06.420 00:11:06.420 --> 00:11:09.040 00:11:09.040 --> 00:11:11.600 00:11:11.900 --> 00:11:13.453 00:11:13.808 --> 00:11:18.500 00:11:18.800 --> 00:11:20.885 00:11:20.885 --> 00:11:23.600 00:11:24.000 --> 00:11:26.800 00:11:26.800 --> 00:11:28.950 00:11:28.950 --> 00:11:31.210 00:11:31.210 --> 00:11:32.580 00:11:32.580 --> 00:11:34.684 00:11:34.684 --> 00:11:35.736 00:11:35.736 --> 00:11:37.000 00:11:37.300 --> 00:11:39.100 00:11:39.100 --> 00:11:41.051 00:11:41.051 --> 00:11:42.557 00:11:42.557 --> 00:11:44.449 00:11:44.449 --> 00:11:45.871 00:11:45.871 --> 00:11:47.141 00:11:47.141 --> 00:11:51.250 00:11:51.250 --> 00:11:52.394 00:11:52.394 --> 00:11:54.500 00:11:54.900 --> 00:11:57.608 00:11:57.608 --> 00:11:59.782 00:11:59.782 --> 00:12:04.234 00:12:04.234 --> 00:12:06.270 00:12:06.786 --> 00:12:09.864 00:12:09.864 --> 00:12:11.200 00:12:12.944 --> 00:12:14.934 00:12:14.934 --> 00:12:18.400 00:12:20.189 --> 00:12:23.656 00:12:24.700 --> 00:12:27.830 00:12:27.830 --> 00:12:29.622 00:12:29.622 --> 00:12:31.163 00:12:31.163 --> 00:12:34.000 00:12:34.900 --> 00:12:36.529 00:12:36.529 --> 00:12:40.013 00:12:40.582 --> 00:12:42.632 00:12:42.632 --> 00:12:43.887 00:12:43.887 --> 00:12:46.073 00:12:46.073 --> 00:12:49.100 00:12:49.800 --> 00:12:52.105 00:12:52.105 --> 00:12:53.573 00:12:53.573 --> 00:12:57.500 00:12:58.600 --> 00:13:00.159 00:13:00.159 --> 00:13:03.209 00:13:03.209 --> 00:13:06.090 00:13:06.549 --> 00:13:08.351 00:13:08.351 --> 00:13:10.979 00:13:11.198 --> 00:13:13.548 00:13:13.548 --> 00:13:16.850 00:13:16.850 --> 00:13:19.821 00:13:19.821 --> 00:13:23.870 00:13:24.424 --> 00:13:27.057 00:13:27.218 --> 00:13:30.132 00:13:30.132 --> 00:13:31.829 00:13:31.829 --> 00:13:33.486 00:13:33.486 --> 00:13:35.229 00:13:35.229 --> 00:13:37.189 00:13:37.189 --> 00:13:38.300 00:13:38.300 --> 00:13:41.267 00:13:41.267 --> 00:13:43.261 00:13:43.261 --> 00:13:46.465 00:13:48.657 --> 00:13:51.200 00:13:51.600 --> 00:13:54.187 00:13:54.187 --> 00:13:56.804 00:13:56.804 --> 00:13:58.207 00:13:58.207 --> 00:13:59.220 00:13:59.220 --> 00:14:00.679 00:14:00.679 --> 00:14:01.944 00:14:02.520 --> 00:14:03.963 00:14:03.963 --> 00:14:06.659 00:14:06.659 --> 00:14:08.000 00:14:08.000 --> 00:14:11.000 00:14:11.000 --> 00:14:12.395 00:14:12.395 --> 00:14:13.867 00:14:13.867 --> 00:14:15.914 00:14:15.914 --> 00:14:17.280 00:14:17.280 --> 00:14:18.305 00:14:18.305 --> 00:14:21.028 00:14:21.500 --> 00:14:24.425 00:14:24.698 --> 00:14:26.556 00:14:26.556 --> 00:14:27.968 00:14:27.968 --> 00:14:30.233 00:14:30.233 --> 00:14:32.489 00:14:32.489 --> 00:14:34.942 00:14:34.942 --> 00:14:36.440 00:14:36.440 --> 00:14:40.900 00:14:40.900 --> 00:14:42.200 00:14:42.200 --> 00:14:47.209 00:14:47.209 --> 00:14:49.900 00:14:51.000 --> 00:14:52.602 00:14:52.602 --> 00:14:55.410 00:14:55.410 --> 00:14:57.828 00:14:57.828 --> 00:14:59.463 00:14:59.463 --> 00:15:02.100 00:15:02.100 --> 00:15:03.800 00:15:03.800 --> 00:15:08.418 00:15:08.418 --> 00:15:09.519 00:15:09.519 --> 00:15:13.185 00:15:13.185 --> 00:15:14.502 00:15:15.700 --> 00:15:18.200 00:15:19.700 --> 00:15:21.984 00:15:21.984 --> 00:15:23.137 00:15:23.137 --> 00:15:25.135 00:15:25.805 --> 00:15:28.860 00:15:29.500 --> 00:15:31.900 00:15:32.200 --> 00:15:34.140 00:15:34.140 --> 00:15:37.507 00:15:38.100 --> 00:15:43.874 00:15:44.300 --> 00:15:46.700 00:15:47.300 --> 00:15:50.642 00:15:50.642 --> 00:15:53.900 00:15:53.900 --> 00:15:56.600 00:15:56.600 --> 00:15:58.600 00:15:59.000 --> 00:16:02.026 00:16:02.026 --> 00:16:06.648 00:16:06.648 --> 00:16:08.328 00:16:08.328 --> 00:16:11.300 00:16:11.300 --> 00:16:12.819 00:16:12.819 --> 00:16:14.753 00:16:14.753 --> 00:16:18.191 00:16:18.191 --> 00:16:20.400 00:16:20.950 --> 00:16:22.394 00:16:22.500 --> 00:16:24.999 00:16:24.999 --> 00:16:26.212 00:16:26.425 --> 00:16:27.993 00:16:27.993 --> 00:16:33.200 00:16:34.100 --> 00:16:35.710 00:16:35.920 --> 00:16:37.148 00:16:37.148 --> 00:16:40.066 00:16:40.066 --> 00:16:43.316 00:16:43.316 --> 00:16:45.100 00:16:45.100 --> 00:16:46.392 00:16:46.392 --> 00:16:49.700 00:16:50.000 --> 00:16:52.020 00:16:52.020 --> 00:16:53.526 00:16:53.526 --> 00:16:55.184 00:16:55.184 --> 00:16:57.400 00:16:57.976 --> 00:17:00.350 00:17:00.350 --> 00:17:03.102 00:17:03.102 --> 00:17:05.671 00:17:05.671 --> 00:17:08.610 00:17:08.610 --> 00:17:09.811 00:17:09.811 --> 00:17:12.000 00:17:12.400 --> 00:17:15.309 00:17:15.309 --> 00:17:17.292 00:17:17.292 --> 00:17:19.100 00:17:19.500 --> 00:17:21.849 00:17:21.849 --> 00:17:23.155 00:17:23.155 --> 00:17:25.063 00:17:25.063 --> 00:17:27.100 00:17:27.872 --> 00:17:29.965 00:17:29.965 --> 00:17:32.400 00:17:32.400 --> 00:17:35.100 00:17:35.100 --> 00:17:36.625 00:17:36.625 --> 00:17:40.573 00:17:40.573 --> 00:17:43.620 00:17:43.620 --> 00:17:45.797 00:17:45.797 --> 00:17:47.733 00:17:47.733 --> 00:17:50.100 00:17:50.100 --> 00:17:52.983 00:17:52.983 --> 00:17:55.700 00:17:55.700 --> 00:17:58.000 00:17:58.000 --> 00:18:01.229 00:18:01.229 --> 00:18:03.300 00:18:03.600 --> 00:18:05.985 00:18:05.985 --> 00:18:07.668 00:18:07.668 --> 00:18:10.694 00:18:10.694 --> 00:18:12.800 00:18:13.000 --> 00:18:16.780 00:18:16.780 --> 00:18:18.517 00:18:18.517 --> 00:18:20.938 00:18:20.938 --> 00:18:22.139 00:18:22.139 --> 00:18:27.309 00:18:27.309 --> 00:18:28.676 00:18:28.900 --> 00:18:30.492 00:18:30.492 --> 00:18:33.782 00:18:33.782 --> 00:18:35.228 00:18:35.529 --> 00:18:39.500 00:18:39.500 --> 00:18:41.824 00:18:41.824 --> 00:18:44.000 00:18:44.000 --> 00:18:47.065 00:18:47.065 --> 00:18:48.800 00:18:49.000 --> 00:18:52.964 00:18:53.504 --> 00:18:56.000 00:18:56.300 --> 00:18:58.791 00:18:58.791 --> 00:19:01.200 00:19:01.500 --> 00:19:02.649 00:19:02.649 --> 00:19:06.300 00:19:06.500 --> 00:19:08.181 00:19:08.181 --> 00:19:09.779 00:19:09.779 --> 00:19:11.489 00:19:11.489 --> 00:19:12.741 00:19:12.741 --> 00:19:14.274 00:19:14.274 --> 00:19:17.067 00:19:17.067 --> 00:19:20.148 00:19:20.349 --> 00:19:21.388 00:19:21.388 --> 00:19:23.673 00:19:23.673 --> 00:19:25.801 00:19:25.801 --> 00:19:28.603 00:19:29.900 --> 00:19:32.704 00:19:32.704 --> 00:19:35.816 00:19:35.816 --> 00:19:37.500 00:19:37.500 --> 00:19:40.223 00:19:40.223 --> 00:19:41.388 00:19:41.388 --> 00:19:43.090 00:19:43.090 --> 00:19:45.394 00:19:45.394 --> 00:19:46.630 00:19:47.100 --> 00:19:49.300 00:19:49.300 --> 00:19:52.932 00:19:52.932 --> 00:19:54.414 00:19:54.414 --> 00:19:56.400 00:19:57.000 --> 00:20:00.297 00:20:00.297 --> 00:20:03.539 00:20:03.539 --> 00:20:06.100 00:20:06.600 --> 00:20:08.720 00:20:08.720 --> 00:20:10.174 00:20:10.174 --> 00:20:11.633 00:20:12.926 --> 00:20:14.419 00:20:14.419 --> 00:20:16.833 00:20:16.833 --> 00:20:18.012 00:20:18.012 --> 00:20:20.500 00:20:20.500 --> 00:20:23.100 00:20:23.600 --> 00:20:26.569 00:20:26.569 --> 00:20:28.550 00:20:28.550 --> 00:20:30.535