1 00:00:00,100 --> 00:00:02,050 ♪ (música) ♪ 2 00:00:03,620 --> 00:00:05,700 - [Narradora] Bienvenidos a Nobel Conversations. 3 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:08,521 En este episodio, Josh Angrist y Guido Imbens 4 00:00:08,521 --> 00:00:09,282 están con Isaiah Andrews para discutir y discrepar 5 00:00:09,282 --> 00:00:09,662 sobre el papel del aprendizaje automático 6 00:00:09,662 --> 00:00:10,043 en la econometría aplicada. 7 00:00:10,043 --> 00:00:11,859 - [Isaiah] Entonces, por supuesto que hay muchos temas 8 00:00:11,859 --> 00:00:12,767 en los que ustedes están muy de acuerdo, pero me gustaría pasar a uno 9 00:00:12,767 --> 00:00:13,675 en el que tal vez tengan algunas discrepancias. 10 00:00:13,675 --> 00:00:15,127 Me gustaría escuchar algunas de sus opiniones 11 00:00:15,127 --> 00:00:15,853 sobre el aprendizaje automático 12 00:00:15,853 --> 00:00:16,580 y el papel que está desempeñando y va a desempeñar en la economía. 13 00:00:17,897 --> 00:00:18,833 - [Guido] He consultado algunos datos como el propietario----------------------. 14 00:00:18,833 --> 00:00:19,301 Vemos que no hay ningún documento publicado allí. 15 00:00:19,301 --> 00:00:19,535 Se hizo un experimento sobre algún algoritmo de búsqueda 16 00:00:19,535 --> 00:00:19,652 y la cuestión era... 17 00:00:19,652 --> 00:00:19,710 se trataba de clasificar cosas y cambiar la clasificación. 18 00:00:19,710 --> 00:00:19,739 Y estaba más o menos claro que iba a haber mucha heterogeneidad. 19 00:00:19,739 --> 00:00:19,754 Si buscas, digamos, una foto de Britney Spears -- 20 00:00:19,754 --> 00:00:19,761 realmente no importa dónde la clasifiques----------------------------------- porque vas a encontrar lo que estás buscando, 21 00:00:19,761 --> 00:00:19,765 ya sea que la pongas en la primera, segunda o tercera posición del ranking. 22 00:00:19,765 --> 00:00:19,767 Pero si estás buscando el mejor libro de econometría, 23 00:00:19,767 --> 00:00:19,768 si pones tu libro en primer lugar o en el décimo, 24 00:00:19,768 --> 00:00:19,768 eso va a suponer una gran diferencia 25 00:00:19,768 --> 00:00:19,768 en la frecuencia con la que la gente va a hacer clic en él. 26 00:00:19,768 --> 00:00:19,769 Así que ahí... 27 00:00:22,313 --> 00:00:23,276 [Josh] ¿Por qué necesito el aprendizaje automático para descubrir eso? 28 00:00:23,276 --> 00:00:24,240 Parece que --porque puedo descubrirlo simplemente.----------------------- 29 00:00:24,240 --> 00:00:24,984 - [Guido] En general -- 30 00:00:24,984 --> 00:00:25,356 - [Josh] Había un montón de posibles... 31 00:00:25,356 --> 00:00:25,542 - Quieres pensar en que hay un montón de características de los artículos, 32 00:00:25,542 --> 00:00:25,635 que quieres entender lo que impulsa la heterogeneidad en el efecto de -- 33 00:00:25,635 --> 00:00:25,681 - Pero solo estás prediciendo. 34 00:00:25,681 --> 00:00:25,704 En cierto sentido, estás resolviendo un problema de marketing. 35 00:00:25,704 --> 00:00:25,716 - No, es un efecto causal, 36 00:00:25,716 --> 00:00:25,722 - Es causal, pero no tiene contenido científico. 37 00:00:25,722 --> 00:00:25,725 Piensa en... 38 00:00:25,725 --> 00:00:25,726 - No, pero hay cosas similares en el ámbito médico. 39 00:00:25,726 --> 00:00:25,727 Si haces un experimento, 40 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 puedes estar muy interesado en si el tratamiento funciona 41 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 para algunos grupos o no. 42 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 Y tienes un montón de características individuales, 43 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 y quieres buscar sistemáticamente... 44 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 - Sí. Soy escéptico sobre esa... 45 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 esa especie de idea de que hay un efecto causal personal 46 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 que me debería importar 47 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 y que el aprendizaje automático puede descubrirlo de alguna manera que sea útil. 48 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 Así que piensa en -- 49 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 he hecho un montón de trabajo en las escuelas, 50 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 ir a, digamos, una escuela charter,------------------------------------------------- 51 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 una escuela privada financiada con fondos públicos, 52 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 efectivamente, que es libre de estructurar su propio plan de estudios para el contexto allí. 53 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 Algunos tipos de escuelas chárter generan espectaculares ganancias de rendimiento 54 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 y en el conjunto de datos que produce ese resultado, 55 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 tengo un montón de covariables. 56 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 Así que tengo las puntuaciones de referencia 57 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 y tengo los antecedentes familiares, 58 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 la educación de los padres, el sexo del niño, la raza del niño. 59 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 Y, bueno, en cuanto reúno media docena de ellas, 60 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 tengo un espacio de muy alta dimensión. 61 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 Definitivamente me interesan las características del curso 62 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 de ese efecto del tratamiento, 63 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 como por ejemplo si es mejor para las personas que provienen de familias con menores ingresos. 64 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 Me cuesta creer que haya una aplicación para la versión de muy alta dimensión de eso, 65 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 en la que descubrí que para los niños no blancos 66 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 que tienen ingresos familiares altos 67 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,727 pero puntuaciones de referencia en el tercer cuartil 68 00:00:25,727 --> 00:00:25,728 y que solo fueron a la escuela pública en el tercer grado pero no en el sexto. 69 00:00:25,728 --> 00:00:26,883 70 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,352 71 00:00:33,352 --> 00:00:35,150 72 00:00:36,122 --> 00:00:38,159 73 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:39,500 74 00:00:39,700 --> 00:00:41,327 75 00:00:42,901 --> 00:00:45,600 76 00:00:45,900 --> 00:00:47,290 77 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:50,610 78 00:00:52,161 --> 00:00:56,282 79 00:00:57,831 --> 00:01:00,617 80 00:01:00,617 --> 00:01:02,493 81 00:01:02,493 --> 00:01:05,500 82 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:07,867 83 00:01:07,867 --> 00:01:09,920 84 00:01:10,100 --> 00:01:12,500 85 00:01:13,300 --> 00:01:16,430 86 00:01:16,430 --> 00:01:18,100 87 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:20,979 88 00:01:21,829 --> 00:01:23,417 89 00:01:23,417 --> 00:01:27,119 90 00:01:27,119 --> 00:01:29,195 91 00:01:29,195 --> 00:01:30,435 92 00:01:30,435 --> 00:01:32,100 93 00:01:32,100 --> 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00:13:16,850 --> 00:13:19,821 358 00:13:19,821 --> 00:13:23,870 359 00:13:24,424 --> 00:13:27,057 360 00:13:27,218 --> 00:13:30,132 361 00:13:30,132 --> 00:13:31,829 362 00:13:31,829 --> 00:13:33,486 363 00:13:33,486 --> 00:13:35,229 364 00:13:35,229 --> 00:13:37,189 365 00:13:37,189 --> 00:13:38,300 366 00:13:38,300 --> 00:13:41,267 367 00:13:41,267 --> 00:13:43,261 368 00:13:43,261 --> 00:13:46,465 369 00:13:48,657 --> 00:13:51,200 370 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,187 371 00:13:54,187 --> 00:13:56,804 372 00:13:56,804 --> 00:13:58,207 373 00:13:58,207 --> 00:13:59,220 374 00:13:59,220 --> 00:14:00,679 375 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:01,944 376 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:03,963 377 00:14:03,963 --> 00:14:06,659 378 00:14:06,659 --> 00:14:08,000 379 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,000 380 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:12,395 381 00:14:12,395 --> 00:14:13,867 382 00:14:13,867 --> 00:14:15,914 383 00:14:15,914 --> 00:14:17,280 384 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:18,305 385 00:14:18,305 --> 00:14:21,028 386 00:14:21,500 --> 00:14:24,425 387 00:14:24,698 --> 00:14:26,556 388 00:14:26,556 --> 00:14:27,968 389 00:14:27,968 --> 00:14:30,233 390 00:14:30,233 --> 00:14:32,489 391 00:14:32,489 --> 00:14:34,942 392 00:14:34,942 --> 00:14:36,440 393 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,900 394 00:14:40,900 --> 00:14:42,200 395 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:47,209 396 00:14:47,209 --> 00:14:49,900 397 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:52,602 398 00:14:52,602 --> 00:14:55,410 399 00:14:55,410 --> 00:14:57,828 400 00:14:57,828 --> 00:14:59,463 401 00:14:59,463 --> 00:15:02,100 402 00:15:02,100 --> 00:15:03,800 403 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:08,418 404 00:15:08,418 --> 00:15:09,519 405 00:15:09,519 --> 00:15:13,185 406 00:15:13,185 --> 00:15:14,502 407 00:15:15,700 --> 00:15:18,200 408 00:15:19,700 --> 00:15:21,984 409 00:15:21,984 --> 00:15:23,137 410 00:15:23,137 --> 00:15:25,135 411 00:15:25,805 --> 00:15:28,860 412 00:15:29,500 --> 00:15:31,900 413 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,140 414 00:15:34,140 --> 00:15:37,507 415 00:15:38,100 --> 00:15:43,874 416 00:15:44,300 --> 00:15:46,700 417 00:15:47,300 --> 00:15:50,642 418 00:15:50,642 --> 00:15:53,900 419 00:15:53,900 --> 00:15:56,600 420 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:58,600 421 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,026 422 00:16:02,026 --> 00:16:06,648 423 00:16:06,648 --> 00:16:08,328 424 00:16:08,328 --> 00:16:11,300 425 00:16:11,300 --> 00:16:12,819 426 00:16:12,819 --> 00:16:14,753 427 00:16:14,753 --> 00:16:18,191 428 00:16:18,191 --> 00:16:20,400 429 00:16:20,950 --> 00:16:22,394 430 00:16:22,500 --> 00:16:24,999 431 00:16:24,999 --> 00:16:26,212 432 00:16:26,425 --> 00:16:27,993 433 00:16:27,993 --> 00:16:33,200 434 00:16:34,100 --> 00:16:35,710 435 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:37,148 436 00:16:37,148 --> 00:16:40,066 437 00:16:40,066 --> 00:16:43,316 438 00:16:43,316 --> 00:16:45,100 439 00:16:45,100 --> 00:16:46,392 440 00:16:46,392 --> 00:16:49,700 441 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,020 442 00:16:52,020 --> 00:16:53,526 443 00:16:53,526 --> 00:16:55,184 444 00:16:55,184 --> 00:16:57,400 445 00:16:57,976 --> 00:17:00,350 446 00:17:00,350 --> 00:17:03,102 447 00:17:03,102 --> 00:17:05,671 448 00:17:05,671 --> 00:17:08,610 449 00:17:08,610 --> 00:17:09,811 450 00:17:09,811 --> 00:17:12,000 451 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,309 452 00:17:15,309 --> 00:17:17,292 453 00:17:17,292 --> 00:17:19,100 454 00:17:19,500 --> 00:17:21,849 455 00:17:21,849 --> 00:17:23,155 456 00:17:23,155 --> 00:17:25,063 457 00:17:25,063 --> 00:17:27,100 458 00:17:27,872 --> 00:17:29,965 459 00:17:29,965 --> 00:17:32,400 460 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,100 461 00:17:35,100 --> 00:17:36,625 462 00:17:36,625 --> 00:17:40,573 463 00:17:40,573 --> 00:17:43,620 464 00:17:43,620 --> 00:17:45,797 465 00:17:45,797 --> 00:17:47,733 466 00:17:47,733 --> 00:17:50,100 467 00:17:50,100 --> 00:17:52,983 468 00:17:52,983 --> 00:17:55,700 469 00:17:55,700 --> 00:17:58,000 470 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,229 471 00:18:01,229 --> 00:18:03,300 472 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:05,985 473 00:18:05,985 --> 00:18:07,668 474 00:18:07,668 --> 00:18:10,694 475 00:18:10,694 --> 00:18:12,800 476 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:16,780 477 00:18:16,780 --> 00:18:18,517 478 00:18:18,517 --> 00:18:20,938 479 00:18:20,938 --> 00:18:22,139 480 00:18:22,139 --> 00:18:27,309 481 00:18:27,309 --> 00:18:28,676 482 00:18:28,900 --> 00:18:30,492 483 00:18:30,492 --> 00:18:33,782 484 00:18:33,782 --> 00:18:35,228 485 00:18:35,529 --> 00:18:39,500 486 00:18:39,500 --> 00:18:41,824 487 00:18:41,824 --> 00:18:44,000 488 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:47,065 489 00:18:47,065 --> 00:18:48,800 490 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,964 491 00:18:53,504 --> 00:18:56,000 492 00:18:56,300 --> 00:18:58,791 493 00:18:58,791 --> 00:19:01,200 494 00:19:01,500 --> 00:19:02,649 495 00:19:02,649 --> 00:19:06,300 496 00:19:06,500 --> 00:19:08,181 497 00:19:08,181 --> 00:19:09,779 498 00:19:09,779 --> 00:19:11,489 499 00:19:11,489 --> 00:19:12,741 500 00:19:12,741 --> 00:19:14,274 501 00:19:14,274 --> 00:19:17,067 502 00:19:17,067 --> 00:19:20,148 503 00:19:20,349 --> 00:19:21,388 504 00:19:21,388 --> 00:19:23,673 505 00:19:23,673 --> 00:19:25,801 506 00:19:25,801 --> 00:19:28,603 507 00:19:29,900 --> 00:19:32,704 508 00:19:32,704 --> 00:19:35,816 509 00:19:35,816 --> 00:19:37,500 510 00:19:37,500 --> 00:19:40,223 511 00:19:40,223 --> 00:19:41,388 512 00:19:41,388 --> 00:19:43,090 513 00:19:43,090 --> 00:19:45,394 514 00:19:45,394 --> 00:19:46,630 515 00:19:47,100 --> 00:19:49,300 516 00:19:49,300 --> 00:19:52,932 517 00:19:52,932 --> 00:19:54,414 518 00:19:54,414 --> 00:19:56,400 519 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,297 520 00:20:00,297 --> 00:20:03,539 521 00:20:03,539 --> 00:20:06,100 522 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,720 523 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:10,174 524 00:20:10,174 --> 00:20:11,633 525 00:20:12,926 --> 00:20:14,419 526 00:20:14,419 --> 00:20:16,833 527 00:20:16,833 --> 00:20:18,012 528 00:20:18,012 --> 00:20:20,500 529 00:20:20,500 --> 00:20:23,100 530 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,569 531 00:20:26,569 --> 00:20:28,550 532 00:20:28,550 --> 00:20:30,535