WEBVTT

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Good morning.

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When I was a little boy,

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I had an experience that changed my life,

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and is in fact why I'm here today.

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That one moment, one moment,

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profoundly affected how I think about

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art, design, and engineering.

NOTE Paragraph

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As background, I was fortunate enough to grow up

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in a family of lovely and talented artists

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in one of the world's great cities.

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My dad, John Ferren, who died when I was 15,

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was an artist by both passion and profession,

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as is my mom, Rae.

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He was one of the New York school

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abstract expressionists who,

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together with his contemporaries,

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invented American modern art,

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and contributed to moving the American zeitgeist

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towards modernism in the 20th century.

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Isn't it remarkable that, after thousands of years

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of people doing mostly representational art,

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that modern art, comparatively speaking,

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is about 15 minutes old,

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yet now pervasive.

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As with many other important innovations,

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those radical ideas required no new technology,

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just fresh thinking and a willingness to experiment,

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plus resiliency in the face of near-universal criticism

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and rejection.

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In our home, art was everywhere.

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It was like oxygen,

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around us and necessary for life.

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As I watched him paint,

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dad taught me that art

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was not about being decorative,

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but it was a different way of communicating ideas,

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and in fact one that could bridge the worlds

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of knowledge and insight.

NOTE Paragraph

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Given this rich artistic environment,

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you'd assume that I would have been compelled

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to go into the family business,

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but no.

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I followed the path of most kids

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who are genetically programmed

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to make their parents crazy.

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I had no interest in becoming an artist,

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certainly not a painter.

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What I did love was electronics and machines,

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taking them apart, building new ones,

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and making them work.

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Fortunately, my family also had engineers in it,

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and with my parents,

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these were my first role models.

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What they all had in common

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was they worked very, very hard.

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My grandpa owned and operated a sheet metal

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kitchen cabinet factory in Brooklyn.

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On weekends, we would go
together to Cortland Street

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which was New York City's radio row.

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There we would explore massive piles

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of surplus electronics,

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and for a few bucks bring home treasures

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like Norton bombsights

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and parts from the first IBM tube-based computers.

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I found these objects both useful and fascinating.

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I learned about engineering and how things worked

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not at school

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but by taking apart and studying

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these fabulously complex devices.

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I did this for hours every day,

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apparently avoiding electrocution.

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Life was good.

NOTE Paragraph

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However, every summer, sadly,

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the machines got left behind

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while my parents and I traveled overseas

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to experience history, art, and design.

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We visited the great museums and historic buildings

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of both Europe and the Middle East,

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but to encourage my growing interest

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in science and technology,

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they would simply drop me off in places

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like the London Science Museum,

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where I would wander endlessly for hours by myself

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studying the history of science and technology.

NOTE Paragraph

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Then, when I was about nine years old,

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we went to Rome.

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On one particularly hot summer day,

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we visited a drum-shaped
building that from the outside

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was not particularly interesting.

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My dad said it was called the Pantheon,

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a temple for all of the gods.

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It didn't look all that special from the outside,

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as I said, but when we walked inside,

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I was immediately struck by three things.

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First of all, it was pleasantly cool

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despite the oppressive heat outside.

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It was very dark, the only source of light

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being an big open hole in the roof.

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Dad explained that this wasn't a big open hole,

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but it was called the Oculus,

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an eye to the heavens.

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And there was something about this place,

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I didn't know why, that just felt special.

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As we walked to the center of the room,

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I looked up at the heavens through the Oculus.

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This was the first church that I'd been to

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that provided an unrestricted view

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between God and man.

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But I wondered, what about when it rained?

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Dad may have called this an Oculus,

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but it was in fact a big hole in the roof.

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I looked down and saw floor drains

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had been cut into the stone floor.

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As I became more accustomed to the dark,

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I was able to make out details of the floor

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and the surrounding walls.

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No big deal, just the same statuary stuff

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that we'd seen all over Rome.

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In fact, it looked like the Appian Way

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of marble salesman showed up

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with his sample book, showed it to Hadrian,

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and Hadrian said, "We'll take all of it."

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(Laughter)

NOTE Paragraph

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But the ceiling was amazing.

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It looked like a Buckminster Fuller geodesic dome.

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I'd seen these before,

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and Bucky was friends with my dad.

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It was modern, high-tech, impressive,

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a huge 142-foot clear span

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which not coincidentally was its exact height.

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I loved this place.

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It was really beautiful and unlike
anything I'd ever seen before,

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so I asked my dad, "When was this built?"

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He said, "About 2,000 years ago."

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And I said, "No, I mean, the roof."

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You see, I assumed that this was a modern roof

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that had been put on because the original

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was destroyed in some long-past war.

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He said, "It's the original roof."

NOTE Paragraph

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That moment changed my life,

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and I can remember it as if it were yesterday.

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For the first time, I realized people were smart

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2,000 years ago. (Laughter)

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This has never crossed my mind.

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I mean, to me, you know, the pyramids at Giza,

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we visited those the year before,

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and sure they're impressive, nice enough design,

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but look, give me an unlimited budget,

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20 to 40,000 laborers, and about 10 to 20 years

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to cut and drag stone blocks 
across the countryside,

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and I'll build you pyramids too.

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But no amount of brute force

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gets you the dome of the Pantheon,

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not 2,000 years ago, nor today.

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And incidentally, it is still the largest

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unreinforced concrete dome that's ever been built.

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To build the Pantheon took some miracles.

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By miracles, I mean things that are

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technically barely possible,

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very high risk, and might not be

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actually accomplishable at this moment in time,

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certainly not by you.

NOTE Paragraph

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For example, here are some
of the Pantheon's miracles.

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To make it even structurally possible,

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they had to invent super-strong concrete,

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and to control weight,

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varied the density of the aggregate

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as they worked their way up the dome.

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For strength and lightness, the dome structure

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used five rings of coffers,

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each of diminishing size,

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which imparts a dramatic forced perspective

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to the design.

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It was wonderfully cool inside

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because of its huge thermal mass,

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natural convection of air rising up

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through the Oculus,

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and a Venturi effect when wind blows across

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the top of the building.

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I discovered for the first time that light itself

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has substance.

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The shaft of light beaming through the Oculus

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was both beautiful and palpable,

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and I realized for the first time

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that light could be designed,

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further, that of all of the forms of design,

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visual design,

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they were all kind of irrelevant without it,

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because without light, you can't see any of them.

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I also realized that I wasn't the first person

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to think that this place was really special.

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It survived gravity, barbarians, looters, developers,

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and the ravages of time to become

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what I believe is the longest

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continuously occupied building in history.

NOTE Paragraph

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Largely because of that visit,

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I came to understand that,

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contrary to what I was being told in school,

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the worlds of art and design

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were not in fact incompatible

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with science and engineering.

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I realized, when combined,

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you could create things that were amazing

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that couldn't be done in either domain alone.

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But in school, with few exceptions,

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they were treated as separate worlds,

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and they still are.

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My teachers told me that I had to get serious

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and focus on one or the other.

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However, urging me to specialize

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only caused me to really 
appreciate those polymaths

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like Michaelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci,

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Benjamin Franklin,

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people who did exactly the opposite.

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And this led me to embrace

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and want to be in both worlds.

NOTE Paragraph

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So then how do these projects of unprecedented creative vision and technical complexity

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like the Pantheon actually happen?

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Someone themselves, perhaps Hadrian,

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needed a brilliant creative vision.

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They also needed the storytelling
and leadership skills

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necessary to fund and execute it,

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and a mastery of science and technology

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with the ability and knowhow

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to push existing innovations even farther.

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It is my belief that to create
these rare game changers

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requires you to pull off at least five miracles.

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The problem is, no matter how talented,

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rich, or smart you are,

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you only get one to one and a half miracles.

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That's it. That's the quota.

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Then you run out of time, money, enthusiasm,

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whatever.

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Remember, most people can't even imagine

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one of these technical miracles,

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and you need at least five to make a Pantheon.

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In my experience, these rare visionaries

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who can think across the worlds of art,

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design, and engineering,

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have the ability to notice

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when others have provided enough of the miracles

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to bring the goal within reach.

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Driven by the clarity of their vision,

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they summon the courage and determination

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to deliver the remaining miracles

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and they often take what other people think to be

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insurmountable obstacles

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and turn them into features.

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Take the Oculus of the Pantheon.

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By insisting that it be in the design,

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it meant you couldn't use much
of the structural technology

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that had been developed for Roman arches.

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However, by instead embracing it

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and rethinking weight and stress distribution,

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they came up with a design that only works

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if there's a big hole in the roof.

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That done, you now get the aesthetic

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and design benefits of light cooling

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and that critical direct connection with the heavens.

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Not bad.

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These people not only believed

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that the impossible can be done,

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but that it must be done.

NOTE Paragraph

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Enough ancient history.

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What are some recent examples of innovations

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that combine creative design

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and technological advances in a way so profound

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that they will be remembered

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a thousand years from now?

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Well, putting a man on the moon was a good one,

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and returning him safely to earth wasn't bad either.

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Talk about one giant leap:

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it's hard to imagine a more profound moment

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in human history

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than when we first left our world

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to set foot on another.

NOTE Paragraph

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So what came after the moon?

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One is tempted to say that today's pantheon

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is the internet,

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but I actually think that's quite wrong,

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or at least it's only part of the story.

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The internet isn't a Pantheon.

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It's more like the invention of concrete:

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important, absolutely necessary

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to build the Pantheon,

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and enduring,

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but entirely insufficient by itself.

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However, just as the technology of concrete

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was critical in realization of the Pantheon,

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new designers will use the
technologies of the internet

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to create novel concepts that will endure.

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Smart phone is a perfect example.

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Soon the majority of people on the planet

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will have one,

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and the idea of connecting everyone

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to both knowledge and each other will endure.

NOTE Paragraph

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So what's next?

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What imminent advance will be
the equivalent of the Pantheon?

00:12:40.899 --> 00:12:42.334
Thinking about this,

00:12:42.334 --> 00:12:44.881
I rejected many very plausible

00:12:44.881 --> 00:12:46.777
and dramatic breakthroughs to come,

00:12:46.777 --> 00:12:48.794
such as curing cancer.

00:12:48.794 --> 00:12:52.132
Why? Because Pantheons are anchored

00:12:52.132 --> 00:12:55.067
in designed physical objects,

00:12:55.067 --> 00:12:57.389
ones that inspire by simply seeing

00:12:57.389 --> 00:12:58.809
and experiencing them,

00:12:58.809 --> 00:13:01.691
and will continue to do so indefinitely.

00:13:01.691 --> 00:13:06.264
It is a different kind of language, like art.

00:13:06.264 --> 00:13:09.036
These other vital contributions that extend life

00:13:09.036 --> 00:13:11.729
and relieve suffering are, of course, critical,

00:13:11.729 --> 00:13:13.416
and fantastic,

00:13:13.416 --> 00:13:15.209
but they're part of the continuum of

00:13:15.209 --> 00:13:17.721
our overall knowledge and technology,

00:13:17.721 --> 00:13:20.245
like the internet.

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:20.245 --> 00:13:22.589
So what is next?

00:13:22.589 --> 00:13:24.308
Perhaps counterintuitively,

00:13:24.308 --> 00:13:26.620
I'm guessing it's a visionary idea

00:13:26.620 --> 00:13:28.474
from the late 1930s

00:13:28.474 --> 00:13:31.634
that's been revived every decade since:

00:13:31.634 --> 00:13:33.648
autonomous vehicles.

00:13:33.648 --> 00:13:35.386
Now you're thinking, give me a break?

00:13:35.386 --> 00:13:38.904
How can a fancy version of cruise control

00:13:38.904 --> 00:13:40.604
be profound?

00:13:40.604 --> 00:13:42.728
Look, much of our world

00:13:42.728 --> 00:13:46.211
has been designed around 
roads and transportation.

00:13:46.211 --> 00:13:48.086
These were as essential to the success

00:13:48.086 --> 00:13:49.584
of the Roman Empire

00:13:49.584 --> 00:13:51.569
as the interstate highway system

00:13:51.569 --> 00:13:53.363
to the prosperity and development

00:13:53.363 --> 00:13:55.573
of the United States.

00:13:55.573 --> 00:13:58.607
Today, these roads that interconnect our world

00:13:58.607 --> 00:14:00.705
are dominated by cars and trucks

00:14:00.705 --> 00:14:02.573
that have remained largely unchanged

00:14:02.573 --> 00:14:05.144
for a hundred years.

00:14:05.144 --> 00:14:08.403
Although perhaps not obvious today,

00:14:08.403 --> 00:14:12.988
autonomous vehicles will be the key technology

00:14:12.988 --> 00:14:16.086
that enables us to redesign our cities

00:14:16.086 --> 00:14:18.305
and, by extension, civilization.

00:14:18.305 --> 00:14:19.907
Here's why:

00:14:19.907 --> 00:14:21.660
once they become ubiquitous,

00:14:21.660 --> 00:14:24.197
each year, these vehicles will save

00:14:24.197 --> 00:14:27.305
tens of thousands of lives in the United States alone

00:14:27.305 --> 00:14:30.432
and a million globally.

00:14:30.432 --> 00:14:33.331
Automotive energy consumption and air pollution

00:14:33.331 --> 00:14:35.704
will be cut dramatically.

00:14:35.704 --> 00:14:37.109
Much of the road congestion

00:14:37.109 --> 00:14:40.919
in and out of our cities will disappear.

00:14:40.919 --> 00:14:43.606
They will enable compelling new concepts

00:14:43.606 --> 00:14:46.075
in how we design cities, work,

00:14:46.075 --> 00:14:48.012
and the way we live.

00:14:48.012 --> 00:14:50.558
We will get where we're going faster

00:14:50.558 --> 00:14:53.556
and society will recapture vast amounts

00:14:53.556 --> 00:14:54.847
of lost productivity

00:14:54.847 --> 00:14:58.488
now spent sitting in traffic basically polluting.

NOTE Paragraph

00:14:58.488 --> 00:15:01.761
But why now? Why do we think this is ready?

00:15:01.761 --> 00:15:03.955
Because over the last 30 years,

00:15:03.955 --> 00:15:06.003
people from outside the automotive industry

00:15:06.003 --> 00:15:08.111
have spent countless billions

00:15:08.111 --> 00:15:09.846
creating the needed miracles,

00:15:09.846 --> 00:15:12.718
but for entirely different purposes.

00:15:12.718 --> 00:15:15.346
It took folks like DARPA, universities,

00:15:15.346 --> 00:15:18.510
and companies completely
outside of the automotive industry

00:15:18.510 --> 00:15:20.811
to notice that if you were clever about it,

00:15:20.811 --> 00:15:23.341
autonomy could be done now.

00:15:23.341 --> 00:15:26.724
So what are the five miracles
needed for autonomous vehicles?

00:15:26.724 --> 00:15:28.367
One, you need to know

00:15:28.367 --> 00:15:31.101
where you are and exactly what time it is.

00:15:31.101 --> 00:15:33.509
This was solved neatly by the GPS system,

00:15:33.509 --> 00:15:34.821
Global Positioning System,

00:15:34.821 --> 00:15:37.487
that the U.S. Government put in place.

00:15:37.487 --> 00:15:40.010
You need to know where all the roads are,

00:15:40.010 --> 00:15:42.913
what the rules are, and where you're going.

00:15:42.913 --> 00:15:45.496
The various needs of personal navigation systems,

00:15:45.496 --> 00:15:47.251
in car navigation systems,

00:15:47.251 --> 00:15:50.284
and web based maps address this.

00:15:50.284 --> 00:15:52.911
You must have near-continuous communication

00:15:52.911 --> 00:15:54.804
with high-performance computing networks

00:15:54.804 --> 00:15:56.474
and with others nearby

00:15:56.474 --> 00:15:59.789
to understand their intent.

00:15:59.789 --> 00:16:02.897
The wireless technologies
developed for mobile devices,

00:16:02.897 --> 00:16:04.690
with some minor modifications,

00:16:04.690 --> 00:16:07.649
are completely suitable to solve this.

00:16:07.649 --> 00:16:10.139
You'll probably want some restricted roadways

00:16:10.139 --> 00:16:11.329
to get started

00:16:11.329 --> 00:16:13.807
that both society and its lawyers

00:16:13.807 --> 00:16:15.679
agree are safe to use for this.

00:16:15.679 --> 00:16:17.528
This will start with the HOV lanes

00:16:17.528 --> 00:16:19.661
and move from there.

00:16:19.661 --> 00:16:22.212
But finally, you need to recognize

00:16:22.212 --> 00:16:24.315
people, signs, and objects.

00:16:24.315 --> 00:16:27.369
Machine vision, special sensors,
and high performance computing

00:16:27.369 --> 00:16:28.941
can do a lot of this,

00:16:28.941 --> 00:16:31.499
but it turns out a lot is not good enough

00:16:31.499 --> 00:16:33.440
when your family is on board.

00:16:33.440 --> 00:16:36.961
Occasionally, humans will 
need to do sense-making.

00:16:36.961 --> 00:16:40.573
For this, you might actually have to wake up

00:16:40.573 --> 00:16:42.669
your passenger and ask them what the hell

00:16:42.669 --> 00:16:45.471
that big lump is in the middle of the road.

00:16:45.487 --> 00:16:47.831
Not so bad, and it will give us a sense of purpose

00:16:47.831 --> 00:16:49.684
in this new world.

00:16:49.684 --> 00:16:52.424
Besides, once the first drivers explain

00:16:52.424 --> 00:16:53.750
to their confused car

00:16:53.750 --> 00:16:56.416
that the giant chicken at the fork in the road

00:16:56.416 --> 00:16:57.959
is actually a restaurant,

00:16:57.959 --> 00:17:00.263
and it's okay to keep driving,

00:17:00.263 --> 00:17:03.683
every other car on the surface of the earth

00:17:03.683 --> 00:17:06.605
will know that from that point on.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:06.605 --> 00:17:08.868
Five miracles, mostly delivered,

00:17:08.868 --> 00:17:10.746
and now you just need a clear vision

00:17:10.746 --> 00:17:13.583
of a better world filled with autonomous vehicles

00:17:13.583 --> 00:17:17.196
with seductively beautiful 
and new functional designs

00:17:17.196 --> 00:17:19.650
plus a lot of money and hard work

00:17:19.650 --> 00:17:21.246
to bring it home.

00:17:21.246 --> 00:17:24.268
The beginning is now only a handful of years away,

00:17:24.268 --> 00:17:26.136
and I predict that autonomous vehicles

00:17:26.136 --> 00:17:28.207
will permanently change our world

00:17:28.207 --> 00:17:32.391
over the next several decades.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:32.391 --> 00:17:35.043
In conclusion, I've come to believe

00:17:35.043 --> 00:17:37.281
that the ingredients for the next Pantheons

00:17:37.281 --> 00:17:38.668
are all around us,

00:17:38.668 --> 00:17:40.855
just waiting for visionary people

00:17:40.855 --> 00:17:42.589
with the broad knowledge,

00:17:42.589 --> 00:17:44.199
multidisciplinary skills,

00:17:44.199 --> 00:17:46.067
and intense passion

00:17:46.067 --> 00:17:51.153
to harness them to make their dreams a reality.

00:17:51.153 --> 00:17:53.649
But these people don't spontaneously

00:17:53.649 --> 00:17:54.988
pop into existence.

00:17:54.988 --> 00:17:56.827
They need to be nurtured and encouraged

00:17:56.827 --> 00:17:58.606
from when they're little kids.

00:17:58.606 --> 00:18:00.466
We need to love them and help them

00:18:00.466 --> 00:18:02.185
discover their passions.

00:18:02.185 --> 00:18:04.399
We need to encourage them to work hard

00:18:04.399 --> 00:18:06.836
and help them understand that failure

00:18:06.836 --> 00:18:09.707
is a necessary ingredient for success,

00:18:09.707 --> 00:18:11.888
as is perseverance.

00:18:11.888 --> 00:18:14.986
We need to help them to find their own role models,

00:18:14.986 --> 00:18:17.658
and give them the confidence
to believe in themselves

00:18:17.658 --> 00:18:20.435
and to believe that anything is possible,

00:18:20.435 --> 00:18:23.944
and just as my grandpa did when
he took me shopping for surplus

00:18:23.944 --> 00:18:25.727
and just as my parents did

00:18:25.727 --> 00:18:27.749
when they took me to science museums,

00:18:27.749 --> 00:18:31.030
we need to encourage them to find their own path,

00:18:31.030 --> 00:18:33.687
even if it's very different from our own.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:33.687 --> 00:18:35.095
But a cautionary note:

00:18:35.095 --> 00:18:37.529
we also need to periodically pry them away

00:18:37.529 --> 00:18:38.998
from their modern miracles,

00:18:38.998 --> 00:18:40.969
the computers, phones, tablets,

00:18:40.969 --> 00:18:42.563
game machines, and TVs,

00:18:42.563 --> 00:18:44.807
take them out into the sunlight

00:18:44.807 --> 00:18:46.936
so they can experience both the natural

00:18:46.936 --> 00:18:49.833
and design wonders of our world,

00:18:49.833 --> 00:18:52.075
our planet and our civilization.

00:18:52.075 --> 00:18:55.002
If we don't, they won't understand

00:18:55.002 --> 00:18:56.884
what these precious things are

00:18:56.884 --> 00:18:59.479
that someday they will be resopnsible

00:18:59.479 --> 00:19:01.761
for protecting and improving.

00:19:01.761 --> 00:19:03.404
We also need them to understand

00:19:03.404 --> 00:19:06.433
something that doesn't seem adequately appreciated

00:19:06.433 --> 00:19:08.896
in our increasingly tech-dependent world,

00:19:08.896 --> 00:19:10.579
that art and design

00:19:10.579 --> 00:19:12.492
are not luxuries,

00:19:12.492 --> 00:19:14.318
nor somehow incompatible

00:19:14.318 --> 00:19:16.187
with science and engineering.

00:19:16.187 --> 00:19:21.762
They are in fact essential to what makes us special.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:21.762 --> 00:19:24.277
Someday, if you get the chance,

00:19:24.277 --> 00:19:25.814
perhaps you can take your kids

00:19:25.814 --> 00:19:27.585
to the actual Pantheon,

00:19:27.585 --> 00:19:30.245
as we will our daughter Kyra,

00:19:30.245 --> 00:19:32.323
to experience firsthand

00:19:32.323 --> 00:19:36.580
the power of that astonishing design,

00:19:36.580 --> 00:19:40.324
which on one otherwise unremarkable day in Rome

00:19:40.324 --> 00:19:43.351
reached 2,000 years into the future

00:19:43.351 --> 00:19:46.009
to set the course for my life.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:46.009 --> 00:19:48.140
Thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:48.140 --> 00:19:52.448
(Applause)