WEBVTT

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Good morning.

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When I was a little boy,

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I had an experience that changed my life,

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and is in fact why I'm here today.

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That one moment, one moment,

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profoundly affected how I think about

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art, design, and engineering.

NOTE Paragraph

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As background, I was fortunate enough to grow up

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in a family of lovely and talented artists

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in one of the world's great cities.

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My dad, John Ferren, who died when I was 15,

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was an artist by both passion and profession,

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as is my mom, Rae.

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He was one of the New York school

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abstract expressionists who,

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together with his contemporaries,

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invented American modern art,

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and contributed to moving the American zeitgeist

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towards modernism in the 20th century.

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Isn't it remarkable that, after thousands of years

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of people doing mostly representational art,

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that modern art, comparatively speaking,

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is about 15 minutes old,

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yet now pervasive.

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As with many other important innovations,

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those radical ideas required no new technology,

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just fresh thinking and a willingness to experiment,

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plus resiliency in the face of near-universal criticism

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and rejection.

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In our home, art was everywhere.

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It was like oxygen,

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around us and necessary for life.

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As I watched him paint,

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dad taught me that art

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was not about being decorative,

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but it was a different way of communicating ideas,

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and in fact one that could bridge the worlds

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of knowledge and insight.

NOTE Paragraph

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Given this rich artistic environment,

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you'd assume that I would have been compelled

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to go into the family business,

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but no.

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I followed the path of most kids

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who are genetically programmed

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to make their parents crazy.

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I had no interest in becoming an artist,

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certainly not a painter.

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What I did love was electronics and machines,

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taking them apart, building new ones,

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and making them work.

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Fortunately, my family also had engineers in it,

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and with my parents,

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these were my first role models.

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What they all had in common

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was they worked very, very hard.

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My grandpa owned and operated a sheet metal

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kitchen cabinet factory in Brooklyn.

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On weekends, we would go
together to Cortland Street

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which was New York City's radio row.

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There we would explore massive piles

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of surplus electronics,

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and for a few bucks bring home treasures

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like Norton bombsights

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and parts from the first IBM tube-based computers.

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I found these objects both useful and fascinating.

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I learned about engineering and how things worked

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not at school

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but by taking apart and studying

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these fabulously complex devices.

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I did this for hours every day,

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apparently avoiding electrocution.

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Life was good.

NOTE Paragraph

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However, every summer, sadly,

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the machines got left behind

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while my parents and I traveled overseas

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to experience history, art, and design.

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We visited the great museums and historic buildings

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of both Europe and the Middle East,

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but to encourage my growing interest

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in science and technology,

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they would simply drop me off in places

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like the London Science Museum,

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where I would wander endlessly for hours by myself

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studying the history of science and technology.

NOTE Paragraph

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Then, when I was about nine years old,

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we went to Rome.

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On one particularly hot summer day,

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we visited a drum-shaped
building that from the outside

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was not particularly interesting.

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My dad said it was called the Pantheon,

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a temple for all of the gods.

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It didn't look all that special from the outside,

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as I said, but when we walked inside,

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I was immediately struck by three things.

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First of all, it was pleasantly cool

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despite the oppressive heat outside.

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It was very dark, the only source of light

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being an big open hole in the roof.

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Dad explained that this wasn't a big open hole,

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but it was called the Oculus,

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an eye to the heavens.

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And there was something about this place,

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I didn't know why, that just felt special.

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As we walked to the center of the room,

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I looked up at the heavens through the Oculus.

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This was the first church that I'd been to

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that provided an unrestricted view

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between God and man.

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But I wondered, what about when it rained?

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Dad may have called this an Oculus,

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but it was in fact a big hole in the roof.

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I looked down and saw floor drains

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had been cut into the stone floor.

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As I became more accustomed to the dark,

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I was able to make out details of the floor

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and the surrounding walls.

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No big deal, just the same statuary stuff

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that we'd seen all over Rome.

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In fact, it looked like the Appian Way

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of marble salesman showed up

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with his sample book, showed it to Hadrian,

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and Hadrian said, "We'll take all of it."

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(Laughter)

NOTE Paragraph

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But the ceiling was amazing.

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It looked like a Buckminster Fuller geodesic dome.

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I'd seen these before,

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and Bucky was friends with my dad.

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It was modern, high-tech, impressive,

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a huge 142-foot clear span

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which not coincidentally was its exact height.

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I loved this place.

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It was really beautiful and unlike
anything I'd ever seen before,

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so I asked my dad, "When was this built?"

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He said, "About 2,000 years ago."

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And I said, "No, I mean, the roof."

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You see, I assumed that this was a modern roof

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that had been put on because the original

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was destroyed in some long-past war.

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He said, "It's the original roof."

NOTE Paragraph

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That moment changed my life,

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and I can remember it as if it were yesterday.

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For the first time, I realized people were smart

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2,000 years ago. (Laughter)

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This has never crossed my mind.

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I mean, to me, you know, the pyramids at Giza,

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we visited those the year before,

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and sure they're impressive, nice enough design,

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but look, give me an unlimited budget,

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20 to 40,000 laborers, and about 10 to 20 years

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to cut and drag stone blocks across the countryside,

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and I'll build you pyramids too.

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But no amount of brute force

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gets you the dome of the Pantheon,

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not 2,000 years ago, nor today.

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And incidentally, it is still the largest

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unreinforced concrete dome that's ever been built.

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To build the Pantheon took some miracles.

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By miracles, I mean things that are

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technically barely possible,

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very high risk, and might not be

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actually accomplishable at this moment in time,

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certainly not by you.

NOTE Paragraph

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For example, here are some
of the Pantheon's miracles.

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To make it even structurally possible,

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they had to invent super-strong concrete,

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and to control weight,

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varied the density of the aggregate

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as they worked their way up the dome.

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For strength and lightness, the dome structure

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used five rings of coffers,

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each of diminishing size,

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which imparts a dramatic forced perspective

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to the design.

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It was wonderfully cool inside

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because of its huge thermal mass,

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natural convection of air rising up

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through the Oculus,

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and a Venturi effect when wind blows across

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the top of the building.

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I discovered for the first time that light itself

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has substance.

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The shaft of light beaming through the Oculus

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was both beautiful and palpable,

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and I realized for the first time

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that light could be designed,

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further, that of all of the forms of design,

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visual design,

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they were all kind of irrelevant without it,

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because without light, you can't see any of them.

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I also realized that I wasn't the first person

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to think that this place was really special.

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It survived gravity, barbarians, looters, developers,

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and the ravages of time to become

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what I believe is the longest

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continuously occupied building in history.

NOTE Paragraph

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Largely because of that visit,

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I came to understand that,

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contrary to what I was being told in school,

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the worlds of art and design

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were not in fact incompatible

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with science and engineering.

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I realized, when combined,

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you could create things that were amazing

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that couldn't be done in either domain alone.

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But in school, with few exceptions,

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they were treated as separate worlds,

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and they still are.

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My teachers told me that I had to get serious

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and focus on one or the other.

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However, urging me to specialize

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only caused me to really appreciate those polymaths

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like Michaelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci,

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Benjamin Franklin,

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people who did exactly the opposite.

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And this led me to embrace

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and want to be in both worlds.

NOTE Paragraph

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So then how do these projects of unprecedented creative vision and technical complexity

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like the Pantheon actually happen?

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Someone themselves, perhaps Hadrian,

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needed a brilliant creative vision.

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They also needed the storytelling
and leadership skills

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necessary to fund and execute it,

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and a mastery of science and technology

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with the ability and knowhow

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to push existing innovations even farther.

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It is my belief that to create
these rare game changers

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requires you to pull off at least five miracles.

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The problem is, no matter how talented,

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rich, or smart you are,

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you only get one to one and a half miracles.

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That's it. That's the quota.

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Then you run out of time, money, enthusiasm,

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whatever.

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Remember, most people can't even imagine

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one of these technical miracles,

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and you need at least five to make a Pantheon.

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In my experience, these rare visionaries

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who can think across the worlds of art,

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design, and engineering,

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have the ability to notice

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when others have provided enough of the miracles

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to bring the goal within reach.

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Driven by the clarity of their vision,

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they summon the courage and determination

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to deliver the remaining miracles

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and they often take what other people think to be

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insurmountable obstacles

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and turn them into features.

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Take the Oculus of the Pantheon.

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By insisting that it be in the design,

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it meant you couldn't use much
of the structural technology

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that had been developed for Roman arches.

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However, by instead embracing it

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and rethinking weight and stress distribution,

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they came up with a design that only works

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if there's a big hole in the roof.

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That done, you now get the aesthetic

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and design benefits of light cooling

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and that critical direct connection with the heavens.

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Not bad.

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These people not only believed

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that the impossible can be done,

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but that it must be done.

NOTE Paragraph

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Enough ancient history.

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What are some recent examples of innovations

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that combine creative design

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and technological advances in a way so profound

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that they will be remembered

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a thousand years from now?

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Well, putting a man on the moon was a good one,

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and returning him safely to earth wasn't bad either.

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Talk about one giant leap:

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it's hard to imagine a more profound moment

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in human history

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than when we first left our world

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to set foot on another.

NOTE Paragraph

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So what came after the moon?

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One is tempted to say that today's pantheon

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is the internet,

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but I actually think that's quite wrong,

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or at least it's only part of the story.

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The internet isn't a Pantheon.

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It's more like the invention on concrete:

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important, absolutely necessary

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to build the Pantheon,

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and enduring,

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but entirely insufficient by itself.

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However, just as the technology of concrete

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was critical in realization of the Pantheon,

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new designers will use the
technologies of the internet

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to create novel concepts that will endure.

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Smart phone is a perfect example.

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Soon the majority of people on the planet

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will have one,

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and the idea of connecting everyone

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to both knowledge and each other will endure.

NOTE Paragraph

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So what's next?

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What imminent advance will be
the equivalent of the Pantheon?

00:12:40.838 --> 00:12:42.488
Thinking about this,

00:12:42.488 --> 00:12:45.022
I rejected many very plausible

00:12:45.022 --> 00:12:46.962
and dramatic breakthroughs to come,

00:12:46.962 --> 00:12:48.918
such as curing cancer.

00:12:48.918 --> 00:12:52.271
Why? Because Pantheons are anchored

00:12:52.271 --> 00:12:55.206
in designed physical objects,

00:12:55.206 --> 00:12:57.344
ones that inspire by simply seeing

00:12:57.344 --> 00:12:59.081
and experiencing them,

00:12:59.081 --> 00:13:02.277
and will continue to do so indefinitely.

00:13:02.277 --> 00:13:06.511
It is a different kind of language, like art.

00:13:06.511 --> 00:13:09.236
These other vital contributions that extend life

00:13:09.236 --> 00:13:11.899
and relieve suffering are, of course, critical,

00:13:11.899 --> 00:13:13.848
and fantastic,

00:13:13.848 --> 00:13:15.656
but they're part of the continuum of

00:13:15.656 --> 00:13:17.968
our overall knowledge and technology,

00:13:17.968 --> 00:13:20.584
like the internet.

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:20.584 --> 00:13:22.928
So what is next?

00:13:22.928 --> 00:13:24.632
Perhaps counterintuitively,

00:13:24.632 --> 00:13:26.760
I'm guessing it's a visionary idea

00:13:26.760 --> 00:13:28.568
from the late 1930s

00:13:28.568 --> 00:13:31.788
that's been revived every decade since:

00:13:31.788 --> 00:13:33.848
autonomous vehicles.

00:13:33.848 --> 00:13:35.710
Now you're thinking, give me a break?

00:13:35.710 --> 00:13:38.306
How can a fancy version of cruise control

00:13:38.306 --> 00:13:40.791
be profound?

00:13:40.791 --> 00:13:43.160
Look, much of our world

00:13:43.160 --> 00:13:46.488
has been designed around roads and transportation.

00:13:46.488 --> 00:13:48.271
These were as essential to the success

00:13:48.271 --> 00:13:49.800
of the Roman Empire

00:13:49.800 --> 00:13:51.831
as the interstate highway system

00:13:51.831 --> 00:13:53.640
to the prosperity and development

00:13:53.640 --> 00:13:55.528
of the United States.

00:13:55.528 --> 00:13:58.546
Today, these roads that interconnect our world

00:13:58.546 --> 00:14:00.952
are dominated by cars and trucks

00:14:00.952 --> 00:14:03.175
that have remained largely unchanged

00:14:03.175 --> 00:14:05.096
for a hundred years.

00:14:05.096 --> 00:14:08.527
Although perhaps not obvious today,

00:14:08.527 --> 00:14:13.265
autonomous vehicles will be the key technology

00:14:13.265 --> 00:14:16.273
that enables us to redesign our cities

00:14:16.273 --> 00:14:18.521
and, by extension, civilization.

00:14:18.521 --> 00:14:20.169
Here's why:

00:14:20.169 --> 00:14:21.968
once they become ubiquitous,

00:14:21.968 --> 00:14:24.305
each year, these vehicles will save

00:14:24.305 --> 00:14:27.521
tens of thousands of lives in the United States alone

00:14:27.521 --> 00:14:30.433
and a million globally.

00:14:30.433 --> 00:14:33.209
Automotive energy consumption and air pollution

00:14:33.209 --> 00:14:35.889
will be cut dramatically.

00:14:35.889 --> 00:14:37.633
Much of the road congestion

00:14:37.633 --> 00:14:41.104
in and out of our cities will disappear.

00:14:41.104 --> 00:14:43.777
They will enable compelling new concepts

00:14:43.777 --> 00:14:46.429
in how we design cities, work,

00:14:46.429 --> 00:14:48.305
and the way we live.

00:14:48.305 --> 00:14:50.882
We will get where we're going faster

00:14:50.882 --> 00:14:53.726
and society will recapture vast amounts

00:14:53.726 --> 00:14:55.494
of lost productivity

00:14:55.494 --> 00:14:58.566
now spent sitting in traffic basically polluting.

NOTE Paragraph

00:14:58.566 --> 00:15:02.070
But why now? Why do we think this is ready?

00:15:02.070 --> 00:15:04.110
Because over the last 30 years,

00:15:04.110 --> 00:15:06.142
people from outside the automotive industry

00:15:06.142 --> 00:15:08.235
have spent countless billions

00:15:08.235 --> 00:15:10.094
creating the needed miracles,

00:15:10.094 --> 00:15:12.718
but for entirely different purposes.

00:15:12.718 --> 00:15:15.470
It took folks like DARPA, universities,

00:15:15.470 --> 00:15:18.326
and companies completely
outside of the automotive industry

00:15:18.326 --> 00:15:20.950
to notice that if you were clever about it,

00:15:20.950 --> 00:15:23.588
autonomy could be done now.

00:15:23.588 --> 00:15:26.694
So what are the five miracles
needed for autonomous vehicles?

00:15:26.694 --> 00:15:28.446
One, you need to know

00:15:28.446 --> 00:15:31.486
where you are and exactly what time it is.

00:15:31.486 --> 00:15:33.894
This was solved neatly by the GPS system,

00:15:33.894 --> 00:15:35.438
Global Positioning System,

00:15:35.438 --> 00:15:37.734
that the U.S. Government put in place.

00:15:37.734 --> 00:15:39.934
You need to know where all the roads are,

00:15:39.934 --> 00:15:43.190
what the rules are, and where you're going.

00:15:43.190 --> 00:15:45.727
The various needs of personal navigation systems,

00:15:45.727 --> 00:15:47.714
in car navigation systems,

00:15:47.714 --> 00:15:50.254
and web based maps address this.

00:15:50.254 --> 00:15:53.025
You must have near-continuous communication

00:15:53.025 --> 00:15:55.096
with high-performance computing networks

00:15:55.096 --> 00:15:56.844
and with others nearby

00:15:56.844 --> 00:15:59.190
to understand their intent.

00:15:59.190 --> 00:16:03.176
The wireless technologies
developed for mobile devices,

00:16:03.176 --> 00:16:04.952
with some minor modifications,

00:16:04.952 --> 00:16:07.496
are completely suitable to solve this.

00:16:07.496 --> 00:16:10.339
You'll probably want some restricted roadways

00:16:10.339 --> 00:16:11.930
to get started

00:16:11.930 --> 00:16:13.992
that both society and its lawyers

00:16:13.992 --> 00:16:16.048
agree are safe to use for this.

00:16:16.048 --> 00:16:17.744
This will start with the HOV lanes

00:16:17.744 --> 00:16:19.617
and move from there.

00:16:19.617 --> 00:16:22.320
But finally, you need to recognize

00:16:22.320 --> 00:16:24.624
people, signs, and objects.

00:16:24.624 --> 00:16:27.554
Machine vision, special sensors,
and high performance computing

00:16:27.554 --> 00:16:29.296
can do a lot of this,

00:16:29.296 --> 00:16:31.408
but it turns out a lot is not good enough

00:16:31.408 --> 00:16:33.640
when your family is on board.

00:16:33.640 --> 00:16:37.208
Occasionally, humans will need to do sense-making.

00:16:37.208 --> 00:16:40.560
For this, you might actually have to wake up

00:16:40.560 --> 00:16:42.900
your passenger and ask them what the hell

00:16:42.900 --> 00:16:45.887
that big lump is in the middle of the road.

00:16:45.887 --> 00:16:47.740
Not so bad, and it will give us a sense of purpose

00:16:47.740 --> 00:16:49.884
in this new world.

00:16:49.884 --> 00:16:52.717
Besides, once the first drivers explain

00:16:52.717 --> 00:16:54.092
to their confused car

00:16:54.092 --> 00:16:56.140
that the giant chicken at the fork in the road

00:16:56.140 --> 00:16:58.206
is actually a restaurant,

00:16:58.206 --> 00:17:00.264
and it's okay to keep driving,

00:17:00.264 --> 00:17:03.777
every other car on the surface of the earth

00:17:03.777 --> 00:17:06.836
will know that from that point on.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:06.836 --> 00:17:08.900
Five miracles, mostly delivered,

00:17:08.900 --> 00:17:11.100
and now you just need a clear vision

00:17:11.100 --> 00:17:13.860
of a better world filled with autonomous vehicles

00:17:13.860 --> 00:17:17.092
with seductively beautiful and new functional designs

00:17:17.092 --> 00:17:19.789
plus a lot of money and hard work

00:17:19.789 --> 00:17:21.601
to bring it home.

00:17:21.601 --> 00:17:24.468
The beginning is now only a handful of years away,

00:17:24.468 --> 00:17:26.260
and I predict that autonomous vehicles

00:17:26.260 --> 00:17:28.408
will permanently change our world

00:17:28.408 --> 00:17:31.916
over the next several decades.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:31.916 --> 00:17:35.228
In conclusion, I've come to believe

00:17:35.228 --> 00:17:37.436
that the ingredients for the next Pantheons

00:17:37.436 --> 00:17:38.868
are all around us,

00:17:38.868 --> 00:17:41.102
just waiting for visionary people

00:17:41.102 --> 00:17:43.236
with the broad knowledge,

00:17:43.236 --> 00:17:45.004
multidisciplinary skills,

00:17:45.004 --> 00:17:46.700
and intense passion

00:17:46.700 --> 00:17:51.247
to harness them to make their dreams a reality.

00:17:51.247 --> 00:17:53.665
But these people don't spontaneously

00:17:53.665 --> 00:17:55.391
pop into existence.

00:17:55.391 --> 00:17:57.151
They need to be nurtured and encouraged

00:17:57.151 --> 00:17:58.976
from when they're little kids.

00:17:58.976 --> 00:18:00.714
We need to love them and help them

00:18:00.714 --> 00:18:02.432
discover their passions.

00:18:02.432 --> 00:18:04.599
We need to encourage them to work hard

00:18:04.599 --> 00:18:07.144
and help them understand that failure

00:18:07.144 --> 00:18:09.907
is a necessary ingredient for success,

00:18:09.907 --> 00:18:12.104
as is perseverance.

00:18:12.104 --> 00:18:15.248
We need to help them to find their own role models,

00:18:15.248 --> 00:18:17.720
and give them the confidence
to believe in themselves

00:18:17.720 --> 00:18:20.712
and to believe that anything is possible,

00:18:20.712 --> 00:18:24.206
and just as my grandpa did when
he took me shopping for surplus

00:18:24.206 --> 00:18:25.912
and just as my parents did

00:18:25.912 --> 00:18:27.780
when they took me to science museums,

00:18:27.780 --> 00:18:31.008
we need to encourage them to find their own path,

00:18:31.008 --> 00:18:33.765
even if it's very different from our own.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:33.765 --> 00:18:35.388
But a cautionary note:

00:18:35.388 --> 00:18:37.729
we also need to periodically pry them away

00:18:37.729 --> 00:18:39.214
from their modern miracles,

00:18:39.214 --> 00:18:41.097
the computers, phones, tablets,

00:18:41.097 --> 00:18:42.856
game machines, and TVs,

00:18:42.856 --> 00:18:44.808
take them out into the sunlight

00:18:44.808 --> 00:18:47.321
so they can experience both the natural

00:18:47.321 --> 00:18:50.048
and design wonders of our world,

00:18:50.048 --> 00:18:52.352
our planet and our civilization.

00:18:52.352 --> 00:18:54.880
If we don't, they won't understand

00:18:54.880 --> 00:18:57.192
what these precious things are

00:18:57.192 --> 00:18:59.864
that someday they will be resopnsible

00:18:59.864 --> 00:19:01.992
for protecting and improving.

00:19:01.992 --> 00:19:03.789
We also need to them to understand

00:19:03.789 --> 00:19:06.312
something that doesn't seem adequately appreciated

00:19:06.312 --> 00:19:09.144
in our increasingly tech-dependent world,

00:19:09.144 --> 00:19:10.856
that art and design

00:19:10.856 --> 00:19:12.785
are not luxuries,

00:19:12.785 --> 00:19:14.626
nor somehow incompatible

00:19:14.626 --> 00:19:16.464
with science and engineering.

00:19:16.464 --> 00:19:21.502
They are in fact essential to what makes us special.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:21.502 --> 00:19:24.462
Someday, if you get the chance,

00:19:24.462 --> 00:19:26.202
perhaps you can take your kids

00:19:26.202 --> 00:19:27.939
to the actual Pantheon,

00:19:27.939 --> 00:19:30.507
as we will our daughter Kyra,

00:19:30.507 --> 00:19:32.523
to experience firsthand

00:19:32.523 --> 00:19:36.919
the power of that astonishing design,

00:19:36.919 --> 00:19:40.571
which on one otherwise unremarkable day in Rome

00:19:40.571 --> 00:19:43.536
reached 2,000 years into the future

00:19:43.536 --> 00:19:46.024
to set the course for my life.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:46.024 --> 00:19:48.448
Thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:48.448 --> 00:19:52.448
(Applause)