[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:01.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(dramatic music)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.78,0:00:03.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Ray Dalio] The changing world order.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.62,0:00:09.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The times ahead will\Nbe radically different
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.12,0:00:12.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from those that we've\Nexperienced in our lifetimes,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.58,0:00:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,though similar to many times before.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.40,0:00:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How do I know that?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.00,0:00:18.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because they always have been.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.67,0:00:28.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over my roughly 50 years of\Nglobal macroeconomic investing,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.10,0:00:30.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've learned the hard way
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.75,0:00:34.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the most important\Nevents that surprised me,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.58,0:00:37.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,did so because they never\Nhappened in my lifetime.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.30,0:00:41.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These painful surprises led me to study
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.78,0:00:45.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the last 500 years of history\Nfor similar situations
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.82,0:00:50.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where I saw that they had indeed\Nhappened many times before
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.58,0:00:53.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the ups and the downs of the Dutch,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.86,0:00:56.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,British,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.34,0:01:00.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and US empires.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.32,0:01:05.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And every time they did,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.12,0:01:08.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was a sign of the changing world order.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.09,0:01:13.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This study taught me valuable lessons
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.73,0:01:16.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I'm going to pass along to you here
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.07,0:01:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a distilled form.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.20,0:01:21.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can find the comprehensive\Nversion in my book,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.61,0:01:24.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Principles for Dealing with\Nthe Changing World Order.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.51,0:01:29.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me begin with a story\Nthat brought me to this point,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.64,0:01:32.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how I learned to\Nanticipate the future
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.50,0:01:34.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by studying the past.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.23,0:01:50.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1971, when I was a young clerk
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.35,0:01:52.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the floor of the New\NYork Stock Exchange,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.64,0:01:54.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the United States ran out of money
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.96,0:01:57.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and defaulted on its debts.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.38,0:02:00.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's right. The US ran out of money.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.32,0:02:01.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.64,0:02:04.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, back then gold was the money
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.21,0:02:07.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,used in transactions between countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.23,0:02:11.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Paper money, like the dollar,\Nwas like checks in a checkbook
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.31,0:02:13.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in that it had no value
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.09,0:02:15.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,other than it could be exchanged for gold,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.63,0:02:17.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was the real money.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.80,0:02:20.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the time, the United\NStates was spending
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.61,0:02:22.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot more money than it was earning
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.67,0:02:26.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by writing a lot more of\Nthese paper money checks
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.24,0:02:29.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than it had gold in the\Nbank to exchange for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.61,0:02:33.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As people turned these checks\Ninto the bank for gold money,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.37,0:02:37.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the amount of gold in the\NUS started to dwindle.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.14,0:02:38.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It soon became obvious
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.79,0:02:41.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the US couldn't keep its promises
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.11,0:02:43.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for all the existing paper money,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.30,0:02:47.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so people holding dollars\Nrushed to exchange them
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.10,0:02:48.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before the gold ran out.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.57,0:02:51.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Recognizing that the US
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.16,0:02:53.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was going to run out of real money,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.58,0:02:56.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on Sunday evening, August 15th,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.33,0:02:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,President Nixon went on\Ntelevision to tell the world
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.48,0:03:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the US was breaking its promise
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.90,0:03:05.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to let people exchange\Ntheir dollars for gold.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.06,0:03:07.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course, he didn't say it that way.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.11,0:03:09.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He said it more diplomatically,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.16,0:03:10.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without making it clear
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.77,0:03:12.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the United States was defaulting.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.71,0:03:14.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [President Nixon] The\Nstrength of a nation's currency
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.31,0:03:17.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is based on the strength\Nof that nation's economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.10,0:03:19.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the American economy is by far
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.45,0:03:20.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the strongest in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.73,0:03:25.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Accordingly, I have directed\Nthe secretary of the treasury
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.16,0:03:27.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to take the action necessary
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.32,0:03:31.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to defend the dollar\Nagainst the speculators.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.08,0:03:33.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have directed Secretary\NConnally to suspend temporarily
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.85,0:03:36.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the convertibility of the dollar into gold
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.84,0:03:38.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or other reserve assets,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.91,0:03:40.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except in amounts and conditions
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.78,0:03:43.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,determined to be in the\Ninterest of monetary stability
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.67,0:03:46.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in the best interest\Nof the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.63,0:03:48.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Ray] I watched in awe
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.55,0:03:51.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,realizing that money as we\Nunderstood it was ending.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.46,0:03:54.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What a crisis!
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.39,0:03:59.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I expected the stock market\Nto plunge the next day,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.18,0:04:02.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I got on the exchange\Nfloor early to prepare.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.91,0:04:06.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When the opening bell rang,\Npandemonium broke out,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.56,0:04:08.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but not the kind I expected.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.81,0:04:13.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The market was up - way up -
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.28,0:04:16.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and went on to rise nearly 25%.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.77,0:04:18.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That surprised me
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.40,0:04:23.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I never experienced a\Ncurrency devaluation before.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.78,0:04:25.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I dug into history,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.22,0:04:30.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I discovered that the exact\Nsame thing happened in 1933
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.05,0:04:32.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and had the exact same effect.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.42,0:04:35.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, paper dollars were\Nalso linked to gold,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.76,0:04:37.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which the US was running out of
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.85,0:04:41.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it was spending\Nmore paper money checks
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.23,0:04:43.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than it had gold to exchange for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.97,0:04:47.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And President Roosevelt\Nannounced on the radio
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.11,0:04:49.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that he would break the country's promise
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.41,0:04:51.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to exchange dollars for gold.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.42,0:04:54.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [President Roosevelt] It\Nwas then that I issued the
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.46,0:04:58.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,proclamation providing for\Nthe national bank holiday.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.36,0:04:59.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this was the first step
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.93,0:05:01.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the government's reconstruction
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.78,0:05:04.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of our financial and economic fabrics.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.95,0:05:09.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second step, last\NThursday, was the legislation
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.78,0:05:13.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,promptly and patriotically\Npassed by the Congress
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.30,0:05:17.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,confirming my proclamation\Nand broadening my powers
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.33,0:05:18.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that it became possible
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.83,0:05:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in view of the requirement of time
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.50,0:05:25.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to extend the holiday and\Nlift the ban of that holiday
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.01,0:05:27.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gradually in the days to come.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.15,0:05:29.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This law also gave authority
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.78,0:05:32.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to develop a program...
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.59,0:05:35.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Ray] In both cases,\Nbreaking the link to gold
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.63,0:05:39.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,allowed the US to continue\Nspending more than it earned
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.43,0:05:42.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,simply by printing more paper dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.67,0:05:45.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since there was an increase\Nin the number of dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.51,0:05:48.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without an increase in\Nthe country's wealth,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.68,0:05:50.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the value of each dollar fell.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.38,0:05:54.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As these new dollars entered the market
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.98,0:05:58.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without a corresponding\Nincrease in productivity,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.27,0:06:02.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they went to buy lots of\Nstocks, gold and commodities,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.93,0:06:06.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and hence caused their prices to rise.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.60,0:06:08.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As I studied more history,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.42,0:06:11.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I saw that the exact same thing happened
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.11,0:06:14.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,many, many times before.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.23,0:06:17.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I saw that since the beginning of time,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.44,0:06:21.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when governments spent much\Nmore than they took in taxes
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.80,0:06:24.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and conditions got bad,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.48,0:06:27.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they ran out of money\Nand they needed more.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.82,0:06:30.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, they printed more, a lot more,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.80,0:06:33.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which made its value fall
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.55,0:06:36.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and made the prices of most everything,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.19,0:06:40.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including stocks, gold\Nand commodities rise.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.27,0:06:43.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's when I first\Nlearned the principle that
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.87,0:06:47.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when central banks print a lot\Nof money to relieve a crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.96,0:06:50.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,buy stocks, gold and commodities
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.90,0:06:53.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because their value will rise
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.07,0:06:56.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the value of paper money will fall.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.03,0:06:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This printing of money is\Nalso what happened in 2008
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.50,0:07:02.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to relieve the\Nmortgage-driven debt crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.54,0:07:07.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in 2020 to relieve the\Npandemic-driven economic crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.09,0:07:10.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it almost certainly\Nwill happen in the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.78,0:07:15.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I suggest that you keep\Nthis principle in mind.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.38,0:07:20.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These experiences gave me\Nanother principle, which is,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.16,0:07:22.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to understand what is coming at you,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.64,0:07:26.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you need to understand\Nwhat happened before you.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.29,0:07:28.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That principle led me to study
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.18,0:07:30.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how the roaring twenties bubble
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.75,0:07:33.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,turned into the 1930s depression,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.36,0:07:35.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which gave me the lessons
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.93,0:07:37.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that allowed me to anticipate
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.74,0:07:41.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and profit from the 2007 bubble
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.35,0:07:45.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,turning into the 2008 bust.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.57,0:07:50.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All these experiences led me to develop
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.27,0:07:52.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an almost instinctual urge
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.95,0:07:56.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to look to the past for similar situations
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.26,0:07:59.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to learn how to handle the future well.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.68,0:08:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Changing orders.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.09,0:08:05.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(man whistles)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.55,0:08:08.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(machine beeping)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.74,0:08:17.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over the last few years,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.27,0:08:20.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,three big things that hadn't\Nhappened in my lifetime
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.55,0:08:22.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,prompted me to do this study.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.82,0:08:25.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, countries didn't have enough money
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.36,0:08:27.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to pay their debts,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.08,0:08:30.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even after lowering\Ninterest rates to zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.41,0:08:33.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So their central banks\Nbegan printing lots of money
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.95,0:08:35.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to do so.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.28,0:08:38.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, big internal conflicts emerged
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.61,0:08:41.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,due to growing gaps in wealth and values.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.77,0:08:44.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This showed up in political populism
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.13,0:08:46.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and polarization between the left,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.49,0:08:48.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who want to redistribute wealth,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.24,0:08:52.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the right, who want to\Ndefend those holding the wealth.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.11,0:08:55.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And third, increasing external conflict
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.51,0:08:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between a rising great power\Nand the leading great power,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.00,0:09:03.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as is now happening with\NChina and the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.74,0:09:05.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I looked back.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.97,0:09:10.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I saw that all these had happened\Ntogether before many times
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.76,0:09:15.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and nearly always led to changing\Ndomestic and world orders.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.28,0:09:20.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The last time this sequence\Nhappened was from 1930 to 1945.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.61,0:09:25.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What exactly is an order? You might ask.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.79,0:09:29.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a governing system for\Npeople dealing with each other.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.65,0:09:33.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are internal orders for\Ngoverning within countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.61,0:09:36.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,typically laid out in constitutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.49,0:09:40.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there is a world order for\Ngoverning between countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.52,0:09:42.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,typically laid out in treaties.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.97,0:09:46.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Internal orders change at\Ndifferent times than world orders,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.58,0:09:49.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,though whether within\Nor between countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.52,0:09:52.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these orders typically change after wars.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.29,0:09:56.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Civil wars within countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.20,0:10:00.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,international wars between countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.18,0:10:03.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They happen when revolutionary new forces
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.28,0:10:06.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,defeat weak old orders.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.36,0:10:08.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, the US internal order
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.43,0:10:11.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was laid out in the constitution in 1789
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.96,0:10:14.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after the American Revolution,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.20,0:10:16.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it is still operating today,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.19,0:10:19.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even after the American Civil War.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.07,0:10:23.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Russia got rid of its old\Norder and established a new one
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.25,0:10:26.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the Russian revolution in 1917,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.24,0:10:31.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which ended in 1991 with a\Nrelatively bloodless revolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.30,0:10:35.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China began its current\Ninternal order in 1949
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.52,0:10:39.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the Chinese Communist\NParty won the civil war.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.18,0:10:40.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You get the idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.90,0:10:42.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The current world order
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.64,0:10:45.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,commonly called the American world order,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.61,0:10:49.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,formed after the allied\Nvictory in World War II
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.79,0:10:53.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the US emerged as\Nthe dominant world power.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.22,0:10:56.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was set out in agreements and treaties
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.01,0:10:59.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for how global governance\Nand monetary systems work.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.97,0:11:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1944, the new world monetary system
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.00,0:11:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was laid out in the\NBretton Woods Agreement
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.93,0:11:08.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and established the dollar
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.73,0:11:12.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the world's leading reserve currency.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.76,0:11:15.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A reserve currency is a currency
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.14,0:11:17.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is commonly accepted\Naround the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.94,0:11:20.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and having one is a key factor
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.33,0:11:24.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a country becoming the\Nrichest and most powerful empire.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.16,0:11:29.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With a new dominant power and\Nmonetary system established,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.45,0:11:32.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a new world order begins.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.20,0:11:36.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These changes take place in a\Ntimeless and universal cycle
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.97,0:11:39.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I call the big cycle.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.30,0:11:43.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'll start with a quick overview,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.46,0:11:46.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then give you a more complete version
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.86,0:11:50.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then direct you to\Nmy book if you want more.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.11,0:11:55.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As I studied the 10 most powerful empires
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.11,0:11:57.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the last 500 years
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.04,0:12:00.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the last three reserve currencies,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.34,0:12:03.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it took me through the rise and decline
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.02,0:12:05.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the Dutch empire and the guilder,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.70,0:12:08.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the British empire and the pound,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.32,0:12:10.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the rise and early decline
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.33,0:12:13.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the United States\Nempire and the dollar,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.42,0:12:16.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the decline and rise\Nof the Chinese empire
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.92,0:12:18.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and its currencies,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.31,0:12:22.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as the rise and\Ndecline of the Spanish, German,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.73,0:12:27.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,French, Indian, Japanese,\NRussian, and Ottoman empires,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.40,0:12:32.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,along with their significant conflicts
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.24,0:12:34.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as measured in this chart.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.96,0:12:37.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To understand China's patterns better,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.25,0:12:39.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I also studied the rise and fall
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.54,0:12:43.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Chinese dynasties and their\Nmonies back to the year 600.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.60,0:12:47.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because looking at all\Nthese measures at once
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.21,0:12:48.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can be confusing,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.89,0:12:51.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'll focus on the four\Nmost important ones,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.83,0:12:56.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Dutch, British, US and Chinese.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:56.31,0:12:58.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'll quickly notice the pattern.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.59,0:13:02.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now let's simplify the form a bit.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.79,0:13:06.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As you can see, they transpired\Nin overlapping cycles
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.45,0:13:09.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that lasted about 250 years
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.43,0:13:13.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with 10 to 20 year transition\Nperiods between them.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.17,0:13:14.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Typically, these two transitions
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.64,0:13:16.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been periods of great conflict
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.92,0:13:21.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because leading powers don't\Ndecline without a fight.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:21.23,0:13:24.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, how am I measuring an empire's power?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.54,0:13:28.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this study, I used eight metrics.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.39,0:13:30.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each country's measure of total power
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.80,0:13:33.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is derived by averaging them together.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.81,0:13:36.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are education,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.38,0:13:39.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,inventiveness and technology development,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.58,0:13:43.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,competitiveness in global\Nmarkets, economic output,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.82,0:13:47.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,share of world trade, military strength,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.70,0:13:51.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the power of their financial\Ncenter for capital markets
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.53,0:13:55.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the strength of their\Ncurrency as a reserve currency.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.61,0:13:57.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because these powers are measurable,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:57.99,0:14:02.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can see how strong each\Ncountry is now, was in the past,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.82,0:14:05.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and whether they're rising or declining.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.56,0:14:10.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By examining the sequences\Nfrom many countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.33,0:14:13.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can see how a typical cycle transpires.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.20,0:14:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And because the wiggles can be confusing,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.70,0:14:19.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can simplify it a bit
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.47,0:14:23.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to focus on the pattern of\Ncause-effect relationships
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.28,0:14:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that drive the rise and\Ndecline of a typical empire.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.80,0:14:31.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As you can see, better\Neducation typically leads
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.64,0:14:35.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to increased innovation\Nand technology development,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.35,0:14:39.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and with a lag, the\Nestablishment of the currency
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.06,0:14:41.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a reserve currency.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.41,0:14:43.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can also see that these forces
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.84,0:14:46.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then declined in a similar order,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.17,0:14:48.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reinforcing each other's decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.15,0:14:51.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's now look at the\Ntypical sequence of events
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.93,0:14:53.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going on inside a country
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.64,0:14:56.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that produces these rises and declines.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:56.99,0:15:00.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a nutshell, the big\Ncycle typically begins
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.85,0:15:03.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after a major conflict, often a war,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.71,0:15:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,establishes the new leading\Npower and the new world order.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.69,0:15:11.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because no one wants to\Nchallenge this power,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.52,0:15:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a period of peace and\Nprosperity typically follows.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.40,0:15:18.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As people get used to\Nthis peace and prosperity,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.29,0:15:21.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they increasingly bet on it continuing.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.49,0:15:23.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They borrow money to do that,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.57,0:15:26.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which eventually leads\Nto a financial bubble.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.71,0:15:28.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The empire's share of trade grows.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.93,0:15:32.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when most transactions\Nare conducted in its currency,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:32.76,0:15:35.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it becomes a reserve currency,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:35.35,0:15:37.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which leads to even more borrowing.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.17,0:15:41.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the same time, this\Nincreased prosperity
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.20,0:15:43.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,distributes wealth unevenly.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.76,0:15:45.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the wealth gap typically grows
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.93,0:15:49.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between the rich "haves"\Nand the poor "have-nots".
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.36,0:15:52.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eventually, the financial bubble bursts,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.98,0:15:55.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which leads to the printing of money,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.68,0:15:59.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an increased internal conflict
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.04,0:16:00.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between the rich and the poor,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:00.64,0:16:03.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which leads to some form of revolution
Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.27,0:16:05.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to redistribute wealth.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:05.23,0:16:09.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This can happen peacefully\Nor as a civil war.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.08,0:16:13.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While the empire struggles\Nwith this internal conflict,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:13.08,0:16:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its power diminishes relative to
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.72,0:16:18.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,external rival powers on the rise.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.87,0:16:20.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When a new rising power
Dialogue: 0,0:16:20.67,0:16:23.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gets strong enough to compete\Nwith the dominant power
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.76,0:16:26.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is having domestic breakdowns,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.28,0:16:31.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,external conflicts, most\Ntypically wars, take place.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.58,0:16:34.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Out of these internal and external wars
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.40,0:16:37.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,come new winners and losers.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.87,0:16:42.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then the winners get together\Nto create the new world order.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.57,0:16:44.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the cycle begins again.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:45.54,0:16:46.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As I looked back,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.76,0:16:49.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I saw that these cause\Nand effect relationships
Dialogue: 0,0:16:49.70,0:16:52.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,drove the cycles of rises and declines
Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.60,0:16:55.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all the way back to the Roman empire.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:55.05,0:16:58.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I saw how the stories of\Neach one of these cycles
Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.65,0:17:03.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,blended together with others\Nbefore, during, and after
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.24,0:17:08.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the same way as each individual\Nstory blends with others
Dialogue: 0,0:17:08.06,0:17:11.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make the epic 500 year story
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.54,0:17:14.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is our collective history.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:14.26,0:17:16.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And like human life cycles,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:17.21,0:17:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no two are exactly the\Nsame, but most are similar.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.96,0:17:24.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're driven by logical\Ncause and effect relationships
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.80,0:17:27.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that progress through stages from birth
Dialogue: 0,0:17:27.84,0:17:29.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to strength and maturity
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.85,0:17:33.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to weakness and inevitably decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:33.69,0:17:36.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,However, that's like saying\Na person's life cycle
Dialogue: 0,0:17:36.52,0:17:38.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,takes 80 years on average
Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.74,0:17:42.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without recognizing that\Nmany are much shorter
Dialogue: 0,0:17:42.05,0:17:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and many are longer.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.08,0:17:47.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While age can be a good\Nindicator of future longevity,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:47.84,0:17:51.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a better way is to look\Nat health indicators.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:51.64,0:17:56.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One can do that with empires\Nand their vital signs too.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:56.15,0:17:59.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I found that by watching the\Nindicators of power change,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:59.95,0:18:03.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was able to see what\Nstage a country was in,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:03.07,0:18:07.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which helped me to anticipate\Nwhat was likely to come next.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:07.43,0:18:11.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I'll take you through\Nthe big cycle in more detail.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:11.42,0:18:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Give me 20 minutes
Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.80,0:18:16.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I'll give you the\Nlast 500 years of history
Dialogue: 0,0:18:16.34,0:18:18.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and show you the similar patterns across
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.84,0:18:23.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Dutch, British, US\Nand Chinese empires.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:25.31,0:18:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,500 years of big cycles.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:30.88,0:18:33.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(wind whooshing)
Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.37,0:18:37.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to describe the typical cycle
Dialogue: 0,0:18:37.77,0:18:40.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by dividing it into three phases.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:41.06,0:18:44.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The rise, the top, and the decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:45.61,0:18:46.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The rise.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:47.85,0:18:52.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Successful new orders that rise,\Nboth internal and external,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:52.85,0:18:57.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are typically started by\Npowerful revolutionary leaders
Dialogue: 0,0:18:57.04,0:18:58.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doing four things.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:58.91,0:19:00.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, they win power
Dialogue: 0,0:19:00.69,0:19:03.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by gaining more support\Nthan the opposition.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:03.82,0:19:06.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, they consolidate power
Dialogue: 0,0:19:06.14,0:19:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by converting, weakening, or\Neliminating the opposition
Dialogue: 0,0:19:10.12,0:19:12.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so they don't stand in their way.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:12.17,0:19:15.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Third, they establish\Nsystems and institutions
Dialogue: 0,0:19:15.76,0:19:17.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that make the country work well.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:17.50,0:19:20.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And fourth, they pick\Ntheir successors well,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:20.70,0:19:23.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or create systems that do that,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:23.21,0:19:27.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because a great empire\Nrequires many great leaders
Dialogue: 0,0:19:27.31,0:19:29.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over several generations.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:29.61,0:19:32.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At this stage soon\Nafter winning the fight,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:32.72,0:19:36.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was typically a period\Nof peace and growing prosperity
Dialogue: 0,0:19:36.49,0:19:39.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the leadership is clearly dominant
Dialogue: 0,0:19:39.25,0:19:42.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and has broad support so\Nno one wants to fight it.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:42.88,0:19:45.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,During this phase,\Nleaders within the country
Dialogue: 0,0:19:45.74,0:19:47.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have to design an excellent system
Dialogue: 0,0:19:47.95,0:19:50.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to raise the country's wealth and power.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:50.57,0:19:52.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First and foremost, to be great
Dialogue: 0,0:19:52.44,0:19:55.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they must have strong education,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:55.55,0:19:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is not just teaching\Nknowledge and skills,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:58.40,0:20:03.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also strong character,\Ncivility and work ethic.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:03.85,0:20:05.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are typically taught in the family,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:05.98,0:20:08.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,schools and religious institutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:08.31,0:20:11.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That provides a healthy\Nrespect for rules and laws,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:11.53,0:20:14.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,order within society, low corruption,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:14.38,0:20:18.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and enables them to unite\Nbehind a common purpose
Dialogue: 0,0:20:18.13,0:20:19.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and work well together.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:20.49,0:20:21.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As they do this,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:21.71,0:20:25.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they increasingly shift from\Nproducing basic products
Dialogue: 0,0:20:25.27,0:20:29.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to innovating and\Ninventing new technologies.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:31.70,0:20:36.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, the Dutch rose\Nto defeat the Habsburg empire
Dialogue: 0,0:20:36.22,0:20:38.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and become superbly educated.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:38.59,0:20:42.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They became so inventive that\Nthey came up with a quarter
Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.34,0:20:44.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of all major inventions in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:44.68,0:20:48.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The most important of which\Nwas the invention of ships
Dialogue: 0,0:20:48.28,0:20:51.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that could travel around the\Nworld to collect great riches
Dialogue: 0,0:20:51.85,0:20:55.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the invention of\Ncapitalism as we know it today
Dialogue: 0,0:20:55.48,0:20:57.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to finance those voyages.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:57.58,0:21:01.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They, like all leading empires,\Nenhanced their thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:21:01.01,0:21:04.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by being open to the best\Nthinking in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:04.46,0:21:05.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a result,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:05.48,0:21:08.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the people in the country\Nbecome more productive
Dialogue: 0,0:21:08.48,0:21:11.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more competitive in world markets,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:11.61,0:21:15.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which shows up in their\Ngrowing economic output
Dialogue: 0,0:21:15.83,0:21:19.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and rising share of world trade.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:19.37,0:21:21.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see this happening now
Dialogue: 0,0:21:21.10,0:21:24.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the US and China are roughly comparable
Dialogue: 0,0:21:24.20,0:21:26.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in both their economic outputs
Dialogue: 0,0:21:26.79,0:21:28.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and their shares of world trade.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:30.47,0:21:32.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As countries trade more globally,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:32.40,0:21:34.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they must protect their trade routes
Dialogue: 0,0:21:34.45,0:21:36.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and their foreign interests from attack.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:36.64,0:21:40.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they develop great military strength.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:40.41,0:21:42.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If done well, this virtuous cycle
Dialogue: 0,0:21:42.94,0:21:45.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leads to strong income growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:45.99,0:21:48.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which can be used to finance investments
Dialogue: 0,0:21:48.71,0:21:53.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in education, infrastructure,\Nand research and development.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:53.44,0:21:57.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They must also develop systems\Nto incentivize and empower
Dialogue: 0,0:21:57.90,0:22:02.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those that have the ability\Nto make or take wealth.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:02.41,0:22:06.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In all of these cases, the\Nmost successful empires
Dialogue: 0,0:22:06.31,0:22:08.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,used a capitalist approach
Dialogue: 0,0:22:10.67,0:22:13.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to develop productive entrepreneurs.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:13.83,0:22:17.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even China, which is run by\Nthe Chinese Communist Party,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:17.49,0:22:21.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,used a form of this capitalist approach.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:21.10,0:22:24.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(cash registers ringing)
Dialogue: 0,0:22:27.17,0:22:30.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Deng Xiaoping, when\Nasked about this, said,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:30.04,0:22:33.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"It doesn't matter if it's\Na white cat or a black cat,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:33.09,0:22:35.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"as long as it catches mice."
Dialogue: 0,0:22:35.60,0:22:38.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And "it's glorious to be rich."
Dialogue: 0,0:22:39.47,0:22:43.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To do this well, they must\Ndevelop their capital markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:43.56,0:22:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most importantly, their\Nlending, bond and stock markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:48.40,0:22:49.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That allows people
Dialogue: 0,0:22:49.53,0:22:53.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to convert their savings into investments,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:53.05,0:22:55.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to fund invention and development
Dialogue: 0,0:22:57.80,0:22:59.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and share in the successes
Dialogue: 0,0:22:59.86,0:23:02.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of those who make great things happen.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:03.23,0:23:06.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Dutch created the first\Npublicly listed company,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:06.69,0:23:08.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Dutch East India Company,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:08.86,0:23:11.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the first stock market to fund it,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:11.12,0:23:13.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which were integral parts of the system
Dialogue: 0,0:23:13.84,0:23:17.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that produced massive wealth and power.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:17.34,0:23:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a natural consequence, the\Ngreatest empires developed
Dialogue: 0,0:23:20.96,0:23:23.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the world's leading financial centers
Dialogue: 0,0:23:23.23,0:23:26.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for attracting and distributing\Nthe world's capital.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:27.47,0:23:30.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Amsterdam was the world's financial center
Dialogue: 0,0:23:30.17,0:23:31.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the Dutch were preeminent,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:33.21,0:23:35.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,London when the British were on top,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:35.86,0:23:37.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,New York is now,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:37.61,0:23:41.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and China is quickly developing\Nits financial centers.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:41.69,0:23:45.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most importantly, the\Ncapitalists, the governments
Dialogue: 0,0:23:45.69,0:23:48.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the military must work together.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:48.66,0:23:51.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not only did the Dutch work well together,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:51.28,0:23:53.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were one in the same.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:53.32,0:23:55.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Dutch East India Company
Dialogue: 0,0:23:55.05,0:23:58.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was granted a trade\Nmonopoly from the government
Dialogue: 0,0:23:58.18,0:24:01.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and had its own officially\Nsanctioned military
Dialogue: 0,0:24:01.56,0:24:06.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to go out into the global\Nmarkets to make and take wealth.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:07.21,0:24:10.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The British followed with the\NBritish East India Company
Dialogue: 0,0:24:10.89,0:24:12.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and had a similar coordination
Dialogue: 0,0:24:12.92,0:24:17.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of their government, business\Nand military operations.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:17.23,0:24:21.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The US Military Industrial\NComplex followed suit,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:21.60,0:24:23.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as does the Chinese system today.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:26.96,0:24:28.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As the country becomes
Dialogue: 0,0:24:28.07,0:24:30.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the largest international trading empire,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:30.83,0:24:34.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its transactions can be\Npaid with its currency,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:34.63,0:24:38.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making it the preferred\Nglobal medium of exchange,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:38.22,0:24:40.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and because their currency
Dialogue: 0,0:24:40.21,0:24:43.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is so widely accepted and frequently used,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:43.66,0:24:46.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people around the world\Nwant to save in it,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:47.24,0:24:50.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making it the preferred\Nstore hold of wealth.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:50.82,0:24:55.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And thus the world's\Nleading reserve currency.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:55.23,0:24:58.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The guilder was the world's\Nmain reserve currency
Dialogue: 0,0:24:58.18,0:25:00.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the Dutch led world trade.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:00.27,0:25:02.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The pound was when the British led.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:03.31,0:25:05.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the dollar has been since the US led.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:07.08,0:25:10.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Naturally, China's currency\Nis increasingly being used
Dialogue: 0,0:25:10.49,0:25:12.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a reserve currency.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:12.76,0:25:15.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Having a reserve currency\Nenables the empire
Dialogue: 0,0:25:15.48,0:25:17.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to borrow more than other countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:19.63,0:25:21.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That advantage is huge.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:22.81,0:25:23.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Think about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:23.85,0:25:27.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People all over the\Nworld are eager to save
Dialogue: 0,0:25:27.04,0:25:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and hence lend back their\Ncurrency to the empire.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:31.00,0:25:34.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Countries without a reserve\Ncurrency don't have that.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:34.57,0:25:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when the empire runs\Nout of its own money,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:37.68,0:25:40.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,remember the United States in 1971,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:41.41,0:25:43.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they can always print more.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:43.68,0:25:45.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The exorbitant privilege
Dialogue: 0,0:25:45.62,0:25:48.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,afforded by the empire's reserve currency
Dialogue: 0,0:25:48.95,0:25:51.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leads borrowing to increase
Dialogue: 0,0:25:51.40,0:25:54.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the beginning of a financial bubble.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:54.67,0:25:57.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This series of cause and\Neffect relationships,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:57.85,0:26:00.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leading to mutually supportive
Dialogue: 0,0:26:00.20,0:26:03.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,financial, political and military powers,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:03.25,0:26:06.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,bolstered by the borrowing\Npower of a reserve currency,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:06.80,0:26:10.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have gone together since\Nhistory began to be recorded.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:10.79,0:26:14.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All the empires that became\Nthe most powerful in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:26:14.48,0:26:17.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,followed this path to the top.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:27.63,0:26:29.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While in the top phase,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:29.29,0:26:31.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most of these strengths are sustained,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:31.74,0:26:34.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,embedded within the\Nfruits of their success
Dialogue: 0,0:26:34.62,0:26:37.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the seeds of their decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:37.05,0:26:38.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a rule,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:38.14,0:26:41.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as people in these rich and\Npowerful countries earn more,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:42.49,0:26:45.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes them more\Nexpensive and less competitive
Dialogue: 0,0:26:45.60,0:26:47.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,relative to people in other countries
Dialogue: 0,0:26:47.55,0:26:49.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are willing to work for less.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:50.58,0:26:54.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the same time, people in\Nother countries naturally copy
Dialogue: 0,0:26:54.28,0:26:57.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the methods and technologies\Nof the leading power,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:57.36,0:27:00.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which further reduces the\Nleading power's competitiveness.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:01.88,0:27:04.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, British ship builders
Dialogue: 0,0:27:04.48,0:27:08.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had less expensive workers\Nthan Dutch ship builders.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:08.32,0:27:12.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, they hired Dutch designers\Nto design better ships
Dialogue: 0,0:27:12.86,0:27:16.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that were built by less\Nexpensive British workers,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:16.26,0:27:18.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making them more competitive,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:18.21,0:27:22.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which led the British to rise\Nand the Dutch to decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:22.49,0:27:24.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also, as people become richer,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:24.70,0:27:27.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they tend not to work as hard.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:27.22,0:27:28.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They enjoy more leisure,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:28.91,0:27:32.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pursue the finer and less\Nproductive things in life,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:32.02,0:27:34.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at the extreme, become decadent.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:35.55,0:27:38.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Values change from\Ngeneration to generation
Dialogue: 0,0:27:38.60,0:27:40.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during the rise to the top
Dialogue: 0,0:27:40.28,0:27:43.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from those who had to fight\Nto achieve wealth and power
Dialogue: 0,0:27:43.36,0:27:45.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to those who inherited it.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:45.39,0:27:46.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(boy groans)\N(boy blows raspberry)
Dialogue: 0,0:27:46.66,0:27:49.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're less battle\Nheartened, steeped in luxuries
Dialogue: 0,0:27:49.66,0:27:51.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and accustomed to the easy life,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:51.90,0:27:54.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which makes them more\Nvulnerable to challenges.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:54.97,0:27:57.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The golden era of the Dutch empire
Dialogue: 0,0:28:00.62,0:28:02.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(glasses clink)
Dialogue: 0,0:28:02.71,0:28:05.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the Victorian era\Nof the British empire
Dialogue: 0,0:28:08.08,0:28:11.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(glasses clink)
Dialogue: 0,0:28:11.23,0:28:14.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were such high prosperity\Nperiods like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:15.39,0:28:17.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As people get used to doing well,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:17.64,0:28:21.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they increasingly bet on\Nthe good times continuing
Dialogue: 0,0:28:21.46,0:28:23.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and borrow money to do that,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:23.32,0:28:25.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which grows into the financial bubbles.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:27.18,0:28:30.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Naturally, the financial\Ngains come unevenly.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:30.41,0:28:32.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, the wealth gap grows.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:33.00,0:28:35.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wealth gaps are self-reinforcing
Dialogue: 0,0:28:35.27,0:28:38.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because rich people use\Ntheir greater resources
Dialogue: 0,0:28:38.40,0:28:40.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to reinforce their powers.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:40.68,0:28:44.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, they give greater\Nprivileges to their children,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:44.46,0:28:46.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like better education,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:46.01,0:28:49.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they influence the political\Nsystem to their advantage.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:50.22,0:28:53.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This causes the gaps in values, politics,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:53.78,0:28:56.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and opportunities to grow between
Dialogue: 0,0:28:56.24,0:28:59.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the rich "haves" and the poor "have-nots".
Dialogue: 0,0:29:00.91,0:29:04.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those who are less well-off\Nfeel the system is unfair,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:04.62,0:29:06.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so resentments grow.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:06.80,0:29:08.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as long as the living standards
Dialogue: 0,0:29:08.70,0:29:10.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of most people are still rising,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:10.98,0:29:14.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these gaps in resentments\Ndon't boil over into conflict.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:14.96,0:29:17.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Having the world's reserve currency
Dialogue: 0,0:29:17.02,0:29:20.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,inevitably leads to borrowing excessively
Dialogue: 0,0:29:20.29,0:29:23.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and contributes to the country building up
Dialogue: 0,0:29:23.11,0:29:26.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,large debts with foreign lenders.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:26.03,0:29:29.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While this boosts spending\Npower over the short term,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:29.87,0:29:32.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it weakens the country's financial health
Dialogue: 0,0:29:32.75,0:29:36.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and weakens the currency\Nover the long-term.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:36.34,0:29:39.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In other words, when borrowing\Nand spending are strong,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:39.86,0:29:42.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the empire appears very strong,
Dialogue: 0,0:29:42.67,0:29:45.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but its finances are\Nin fact being weakened.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:46.87,0:29:49.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The borrowing sustains the country's power
Dialogue: 0,0:29:49.16,0:29:50.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beyond its fundamentals
Dialogue: 0,0:29:50.80,0:29:53.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by financing both\Ndomestic over consumption
Dialogue: 0,0:29:54.93,0:29:57.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and international military conflicts
Dialogue: 0,0:29:57.42,0:30:00.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,required to maintain the empire.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:00.42,0:30:04.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Inevitably, the cost of maintaining\Nand defending the empire
Dialogue: 0,0:30:04.34,0:30:06.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,becomes greater than the\Nrevenue it brings in.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:06.78,0:30:10.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So having an empire becomes unprofitable.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:10.27,0:30:14.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, the Dutch empire\Noverextended around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:30:14.20,0:30:17.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and fought war after\Nincreasingly expensive war
Dialogue: 0,0:30:17.78,0:30:20.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the British and other European powers
Dialogue: 0,0:30:20.37,0:30:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to protect its territory and trade routes.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:23.10,0:30:26.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The British empire similarly\Nbecame massive, bureaucratic,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:26.89,0:30:31.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and lost its competitive\Nadvantages as rival powers,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:31.02,0:30:33.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,particularly Germany, soared,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:33.58,0:30:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leading to an increasingly\Nexpensive arms race
Dialogue: 0,0:30:37.00,0:30:38.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and world war.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:39.68,0:30:42.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The US has spent about\Neight trillion dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:30:42.63,0:30:46.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on foreign wars and their\Nconsequences since September 11th,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:47.57,0:30:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and trillions more for\Nother military operations
Dialogue: 0,0:30:51.10,0:30:55.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and for supporting military\Nbases in 70 countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:55.54,0:30:57.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it still isn't spending enough
Dialogue: 0,0:30:57.59,0:31:00.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to support its military\Ncompetition with China
Dialogue: 0,0:31:00.50,0:31:02.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the area around China.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:03.40,0:31:05.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this cycle, the richer countries
Dialogue: 0,0:31:05.57,0:31:07.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eventually get deeper into debt
Dialogue: 0,0:31:07.33,0:31:10.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by borrowing from poor\Ncountries that save more.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:10.30,0:31:13.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's one of the early signs\Nof a wealth and power shift.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:13.88,0:31:16.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This started in the\NUnited States in the 1980s
Dialogue: 0,0:31:16.87,0:31:21.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it had a per capita income\N40 times that of China's,
Dialogue: 0,0:31:21.19,0:31:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and started borrowing from Chinese
Dialogue: 0,0:31:23.42,0:31:25.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who wanted to save in dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:31:25.13,0:31:29.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the dollar was the\Nworld's reserve currency.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:29.29,0:31:31.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Similarly, the British\Nborrowed a lot of money
Dialogue: 0,0:31:31.77,0:31:34.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from its much poorer colonies
Dialogue: 0,0:31:34.52,0:31:36.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the Dutch did the same at their top.
Dialogue: 0,0:31:37.80,0:31:40.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the empire begins to\Nrun out of new lenders,
Dialogue: 0,0:31:40.73,0:31:42.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those holding their currency
Dialogue: 0,0:31:42.16,0:31:45.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,begin to look to sell and get out
Dialogue: 0,0:31:45.53,0:31:50.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than to buy,\Nsave, lend, and get in,
Dialogue: 0,0:31:55.80,0:31:58.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the strength of the\Nempire begins to decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:00.21,0:32:01.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:02.16,0:32:05.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The decline comes from\Ninternal economic weakness
Dialogue: 0,0:32:05.56,0:32:07.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,together with internal fighting
Dialogue: 0,0:32:07.62,0:32:11.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or costly external fighting or both.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:11.41,0:32:14.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Typically, the decline comes gradually
Dialogue: 0,0:32:14.40,0:32:15.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then very suddenly.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:16.86,0:32:19.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When debts become very large,
Dialogue: 0,0:32:19.33,0:32:22.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there is an economic downturn,
Dialogue: 0,0:32:22.11,0:32:24.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the empire can no\Nlonger borrow the money
Dialogue: 0,0:32:24.76,0:32:27.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,necessary to repay its debts,
Dialogue: 0,0:32:27.30,0:32:29.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the financial bubble bursts.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:30.13,0:32:32.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This creates great domestic hardships
Dialogue: 0,0:32:32.70,0:32:34.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and forces the country to choose between
Dialogue: 0,0:32:34.99,0:32:39.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,defaulting on its debts or\Nprinting a lot of new money.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:39.15,0:32:41.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It always chooses to\Nprint a lot of new money.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:42.70,0:32:46.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At first gradually, and\Neventually massively.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:48.56,0:32:52.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That devalues the currency\Nand raises inflation.
Dialogue: 0,0:32:52.41,0:32:55.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For the Dutch, this was\Nthe financial crisis
Dialogue: 0,0:32:55.08,0:32:57.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,brought about by financial excesses
Dialogue: 0,0:32:57.51,0:33:00.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and paying for the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War.
Dialogue: 0,0:33:00.67,0:33:02.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Similarly, for the British,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:02.24,0:33:04.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was paying for its financial excesses
Dialogue: 0,0:33:04.55,0:33:07.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and its debts from the two world wars.
Dialogue: 0,0:33:07.93,0:33:10.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And for the US, it's been three cycles
Dialogue: 0,0:33:10.73,0:33:14.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of debt, finance, booms,\Nand busts since the nineties
Dialogue: 0,0:33:14.46,0:33:17.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the central bank\Nstepping in each time
Dialogue: 0,0:33:17.24,0:33:18.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with stronger measures.
Dialogue: 0,0:33:21.90,0:33:24.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When the government has\Nproblems funding itself,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:24.63,0:33:27.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when there are bad economic conditions
Dialogue: 0,0:33:27.71,0:33:31.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and living standards for\Nmost people are declining,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:31.13,0:33:36.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there are large wealth,\Nvalues, and political gaps,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:36.63,0:33:39.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,internal conflict between\Nthe rich and the poor,
Dialogue: 0,0:33:39.88,0:33:43.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as different ethnic,\Nreligious, and racial groups
Dialogue: 0,0:33:43.75,0:33:45.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,greatly increases.
Dialogue: 0,0:33:45.35,0:33:47.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This leads to political extremism
Dialogue: 0,0:33:47.96,0:33:52.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that shows up as populism\Nof the left or the right.
Dialogue: 0,0:33:52.02,0:33:55.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those of the left seek to\Nredistribute the wealth
Dialogue: 0,0:33:55.06,0:33:57.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while those of the right\Nseek to maintain the wealth
Dialogue: 0,0:33:57.68,0:33:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the hands of the rich.
Dialogue: 0,0:33:59.48,0:34:03.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Typically during such times,\Ntaxes on the rich rise
Dialogue: 0,0:34:03.47,0:34:06.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when the rich fear\Ntheir wealth and wellbeing
Dialogue: 0,0:34:06.09,0:34:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be taken away,
Dialogue: 0,0:34:07.80,0:34:11.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they move to places,\Nassets, and currencies
Dialogue: 0,0:34:11.01,0:34:12.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they feel safer in.
Dialogue: 0,0:34:12.61,0:34:15.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These outflows reduce\Nthe empire's tax revenue,
Dialogue: 0,0:34:15.87,0:34:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which leads to a classic,\Nself-reinforcing,
Dialogue: 0,0:34:19.00,0:34:20.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hollowing out process.
Dialogue: 0,0:34:21.95,0:34:24.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When the flight of wealth gets bad enough,
Dialogue: 0,0:34:24.65,0:34:26.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,governments outlaw it.
Dialogue: 0,0:34:26.46,0:34:29.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those seeking to get out begin to panic.
Dialogue: 0,0:34:29.71,0:34:33.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These turbulent conditions\Nundermine productivity,
Dialogue: 0,0:34:33.26,0:34:36.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which shrinks the economic\Npie and causes more conflict
Dialogue: 0,0:34:36.60,0:34:40.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about how to divide the\Nshrinking resources.
Dialogue: 0,0:34:40.07,0:34:42.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Populist leaders emerge from both sides
Dialogue: 0,0:34:42.33,0:34:45.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and pledge to take control\Nand bring about order.
Dialogue: 0,0:34:45.62,0:34:48.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's when democracy is most challenged,
Dialogue: 0,0:34:48.10,0:34:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it fails to control the anarchy,
Dialogue: 0,0:34:50.68,0:34:53.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it is when the move to\Na strong populist leader
Dialogue: 0,0:34:53.77,0:34:57.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who will bring order to\Nthe chaos is most likely.
Dialogue: 0,0:34:57.25,0:34:59.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As conflict within the country escalates,
Dialogue: 0,0:34:59.70,0:35:03.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it leads to some form of\Nrevolution or civil war
Dialogue: 0,0:35:03.61,0:35:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to redistribute wealth and\Nforce the necessary big changes.
Dialogue: 0,0:35:08.83,0:35:12.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This can be peaceful and\Nmaintain the existing order,
Dialogue: 0,0:35:13.56,0:35:17.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's more often violent\Nand changes the order.
Dialogue: 0,0:35:18.44,0:35:21.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, the Roosevelt\Nrevolution to redistribute wealth
Dialogue: 0,0:35:21.91,0:35:23.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was relatively peaceful
Dialogue: 0,0:35:23.54,0:35:26.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maintained the\Nexisting internal order,
Dialogue: 0,0:35:26.81,0:35:30.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while the French revolution,\Nthe Russian revolution,
Dialogue: 0,0:35:30.93,0:35:33.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the Chinese revolution\Nwere much more violent
Dialogue: 0,0:35:34.95,0:35:37.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and led to new internal orders.
Dialogue: 0,0:35:37.94,0:35:40.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This internal conflict\Nmakes the empire weak
Dialogue: 0,0:35:40.89,0:35:44.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and vulnerable to rising external rivals
Dialogue: 0,0:35:44.22,0:35:46.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who, seeing this domestic weakness,
Dialogue: 0,0:35:46.69,0:35:48.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are more inclined to mount a challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:35:49.80,0:35:53.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This raises the risk of\Ngreat international conflict,
Dialogue: 0,0:35:53.76,0:35:57.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially if the rival has\Nbuilt up a comparable military.
Dialogue: 0,0:35:57.89,0:36:00.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Defending one's self and\None's empire against rivals
Dialogue: 0,0:36:00.89,0:36:05.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,requires great military\Nspending, which has to occur
Dialogue: 0,0:36:05.05,0:36:08.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as domestic economic\Nconditions are deteriorating
Dialogue: 0,0:36:08.58,0:36:11.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the empire can least afford it.
Dialogue: 0,0:36:11.23,0:36:13.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since there is no viable system
Dialogue: 0,0:36:13.41,0:36:16.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for peacefully adjudicating\Ninternational disputes,
Dialogue: 0,0:36:16.78,0:36:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these conflicts are typically resolved
Dialogue: 0,0:36:18.99,0:36:20.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through tests of power.
Dialogue: 0,0:36:22.51,0:36:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As bolder challenges are made,
Dialogue: 0,0:36:24.54,0:36:27.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the leading empire is faced\Nwith the difficult choice
Dialogue: 0,0:36:27.55,0:36:30.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of fighting or retreating.
Dialogue: 0,0:36:30.23,0:36:32.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fighting and losing is the worst outcome,
Dialogue: 0,0:36:32.93,0:36:37.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but retreating is bad too as\Nit cedes progress to the rival
Dialogue: 0,0:36:37.23,0:36:39.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and signals that the empire is weak
Dialogue: 0,0:36:39.25,0:36:43.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to those countries that are\Nconsidering which side to be on.
Dialogue: 0,0:36:43.18,0:36:44.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Poor economic conditions
Dialogue: 0,0:36:44.97,0:36:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cause more fighting for wealth and power,
Dialogue: 0,0:36:47.80,0:36:50.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which inevitably leads\Nto some kind of war.
Dialogue: 0,0:36:51.30,0:36:54.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wars are terribly costly.
Dialogue: 0,0:36:54.15,0:36:57.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the same time, they\Nproduce the tectonic shifts
Dialogue: 0,0:36:57.33,0:36:59.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that realign the new orders
Dialogue: 0,0:36:59.84,0:37:03.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the new realities of\Nwealth and power in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:37:03.80,0:37:06.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When those holding the\Nreserve currency and debt
Dialogue: 0,0:37:06.30,0:37:09.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the declining empire\Nlose faith and sell them,
Dialogue: 0,0:37:09.68,0:37:12.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that marks the end of its big cycle.
Dialogue: 0,0:37:12.74,0:37:17.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of the roughly 750 currencies\Nthat existed since 1700,
Dialogue: 0,0:37:17.53,0:37:20.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,less than 20% now exist,
Dialogue: 0,0:37:20.31,0:37:23.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all of them have been devalued.
Dialogue: 0,0:37:23.16,0:37:25.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For the Dutch, this\Nhappened after their defeat
Dialogue: 0,0:37:25.68,0:37:28.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War,
Dialogue: 0,0:37:28.01,0:37:30.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they weren't able to repay
Dialogue: 0,0:37:30.01,0:37:33.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the massive debts they built up during it.
Dialogue: 0,0:37:33.21,0:37:35.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This led to a run on the bank of Amsterdam
Dialogue: 0,0:37:37.33,0:37:39.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a desperate sell off,
Dialogue: 0,0:37:39.37,0:37:41.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forcing massive money printing,
Dialogue: 0,0:37:43.77,0:37:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which devalued the currency
Dialogue: 0,0:37:46.51,0:37:49.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the empire into irrelevance.
Dialogue: 0,0:37:50.72,0:37:53.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For the British, this\Nhappened after World War II,
Dialogue: 0,0:37:54.80,0:37:56.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when despite their victory,
Dialogue: 0,0:37:56.86,0:37:59.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they could not repay the\Nmassive debts they borrowed
Dialogue: 0,0:37:59.61,0:38:01.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to fund their war effort.
Dialogue: 0,0:38:01.18,0:38:06.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This led to a series of\Nmoney printing, devaluations,
Dialogue: 0,0:38:06.05,0:38:08.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and selloffs in the British pound
Dialogue: 0,0:38:08.67,0:38:11.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the US and the dollar emerged dominant
Dialogue: 0,0:38:11.71,0:38:14.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and created a new world order.
Dialogue: 0,0:38:14.75,0:38:16.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the time of this recording,
Dialogue: 0,0:38:16.25,0:38:19.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the United States hasn't\Nyet reached this point.
Dialogue: 0,0:38:19.58,0:38:23.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,While it has massive debt,\Nspends more than it earns
Dialogue: 0,0:38:23.11,0:38:25.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and funds this deficit with more borrowing
Dialogue: 0,0:38:25.62,0:38:28.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and printing huge amounts of new money,
Dialogue: 0,0:38:28.49,0:38:30.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the big sell off in\Ndollars and dollar debt
Dialogue: 0,0:38:30.95,0:38:32.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hasn't yet begun.
Dialogue: 0,0:38:32.53,0:38:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And while there are great\Ninternal and external conflicts
Dialogue: 0,0:38:36.00,0:38:38.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,occurring for all the classic reasons,
Dialogue: 0,0:38:38.24,0:38:41.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they've not yet crossed\Nthe line to become wars.
Dialogue: 0,0:38:41.35,0:38:43.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Eventually out of these conflicts,
Dialogue: 0,0:38:43.50,0:38:45.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they're violent or not,
Dialogue: 0,0:38:45.70,0:38:47.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,come new winners who get together
Dialogue: 0,0:38:47.74,0:38:51.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and restructure the losers'\Ndebts and political systems
Dialogue: 0,0:38:51.67,0:38:54.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and establish the new world order.
Dialogue: 0,0:38:54.67,0:38:58.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then the old cycle and empire ends
Dialogue: 0,0:38:58.47,0:39:00.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the new one begins
Dialogue: 0,0:39:00.58,0:39:02.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they do it all over again.
Dialogue: 0,0:39:02.92,0:39:05.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a lot of detail I just threw at you
Dialogue: 0,0:39:05.01,0:39:09.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to paint a picture of how the\Ntypical big cycle transpires.
Dialogue: 0,0:39:09.34,0:39:13.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course, not all of them\Ntranspire exactly this way,
Dialogue: 0,0:39:13.16,0:39:16.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most largely do, so much so
Dialogue: 0,0:39:16.13,0:39:19.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it seems like the\Nstories of rises and declines
Dialogue: 0,0:39:19.38,0:39:21.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stay essentially the same
Dialogue: 0,0:39:21.33,0:39:23.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the only things that change
Dialogue: 0,0:39:23.04,0:39:25.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the clothes the characters wear
Dialogue: 0,0:39:25.17,0:39:27.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the technologies they use.
Dialogue: 0,0:39:28.65,0:39:30.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, where are we heading?
Dialogue: 0,0:39:39.11,0:39:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The future.
Dialogue: 0,0:39:48.54,0:39:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most empires have their time in the sun
Dialogue: 0,0:39:50.89,0:39:52.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and inevitably decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:39:55.66,0:39:57.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Reversing a decline is difficult
Dialogue: 0,0:39:57.47,0:39:59.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that requires undoing a lot
Dialogue: 0,0:39:59.56,0:40:02.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's already been\Ndone, but it's possible.
Dialogue: 0,0:40:02.86,0:40:06.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By looking at these indicators,\Nit's pretty easy to see
Dialogue: 0,0:40:06.43,0:40:09.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which stage of the big\Ncycle an empire is in,
Dialogue: 0,0:40:09.76,0:40:11.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how fit it is,
Dialogue: 0,0:40:11.11,0:40:14.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and whether its condition\Nis improving or worsening,
Dialogue: 0,0:40:16.91,0:40:20.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which can help one estimate\Nhow many years it has left.
Dialogue: 0,0:40:21.48,0:40:23.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Still, these estimates aren't precise
Dialogue: 0,0:40:23.97,0:40:25.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the cycle can be extended
Dialogue: 0,0:40:25.76,0:40:28.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if those in charge pay\Nattention to their vital signs
Dialogue: 0,0:40:28.80,0:40:29.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and improve them.
Dialogue: 0,0:40:30.56,0:40:34.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, knowing that\Na person is 60 years old,
Dialogue: 0,0:40:34.66,0:40:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how fit they are,\Nwhether they smoke or not
Dialogue: 0,0:40:38.20,0:40:40.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a few other basic vital signs,
Dialogue: 0,0:40:40.80,0:40:43.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one can estimate the person's longevity.
Dialogue: 0,0:40:44.56,0:40:47.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One can do that with empires\Nand their vital signs too.
Dialogue: 0,0:40:48.85,0:40:53.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It won't be precise, but it\Nwill be broadly indicative
Dialogue: 0,0:40:53.22,0:40:55.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and give clear direction on steps to take
Dialogue: 0,0:40:55.54,0:40:57.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to increase longevity.
Dialogue: 0,0:40:58.28,0:41:00.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's most often the case
Dialogue: 0,0:41:00.13,0:41:03.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that a nation's greatest\Nwar is with itself
Dialogue: 0,0:41:03.83,0:41:07.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over whether or not it can\Nmake the hard decisions
Dialogue: 0,0:41:07.06,0:41:09.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,needed to sustain success.
Dialogue: 0,0:41:10.31,0:41:12.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As for what we need to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:41:12.20,0:41:14.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it comes down to just two things -
Dialogue: 0,0:41:14.64,0:41:19.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,earn more than we spend,\Nand treat each other well.
Dialogue: 0,0:41:19.37,0:41:21.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All other things I mentioned -
Dialogue: 0,0:41:21.18,0:41:23.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,strong education, inventiveness,
Dialogue: 0,0:41:23.74,0:41:26.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,being competitive and all the rest -
Dialogue: 0,0:41:26.42,0:41:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are just ways of getting\Nat these two things.
Dialogue: 0,0:41:29.92,0:41:32.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's easy to measure if we're doing them.
Dialogue: 0,0:41:32.56,0:41:35.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So like people who want to get fit,
Dialogue: 0,0:41:35.24,0:41:38.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's get on the program\Nand improve our vitals.
Dialogue: 0,0:41:38.91,0:41:42.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's do that individually\Nand collectively.
Dialogue: 0,0:41:45.56,0:41:48.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My goal for sharing this\Npicture of how the world works
Dialogue: 0,0:41:48.43,0:41:50.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a few principles\Nfor dealing with it well
Dialogue: 0,0:41:50.98,0:41:53.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to help you recognize where we are
Dialogue: 0,0:41:53.70,0:41:55.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the challenges we face,
Dialogue: 0,0:41:55.91,0:41:58.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to make the wise decisions needed
Dialogue: 0,0:41:58.53,0:42:00.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to navigate these times well.
Dialogue: 0,0:42:06.94,0:42:10.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since there is a lot more to\Ndiscuss and we are out of time,
Dialogue: 0,0:42:10.79,0:42:12.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can learn more in my book
Dialogue: 0,0:42:12.41,0:42:15.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Principles for Dealing with\Nthe Changing World Order.
Dialogue: 0,0:42:15.90,0:42:19.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I look forward to\Ncontinuing this conversation
Dialogue: 0,0:42:19.01,0:42:21.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at economicprinciples.org
Dialogue: 0,0:42:21.29,0:42:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and on social media.
Dialogue: 0,0:42:23.42,0:42:24.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you,
Dialogue: 0,0:42:24.33,0:42:27.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and may the force of\Nevolution be with you.
Dialogue: 0,0:42:32.80,0:42:35.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(dramatic music)