[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.07,0:00:11.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.26,0:00:14.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in the spirit\Nof this afternoon's conference,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.78,0:00:16.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to take this opportunity
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.26,0:00:19.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to talk with you a little bit\Nabout some new work I'm doing
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.25,0:00:20.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how it all started -
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.40,0:00:23.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I saw a map\Nthat really freaked me out.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.92,0:00:25.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me show you that map
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.75,0:00:27.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and give you a little bit of background.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.77,0:00:30.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just to start things off and explain,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.16,0:00:32.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm a behavioral economist here at Yale.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.72,0:00:37.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, one of the things I study\Nis how people make decisions over time:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.22,0:00:39.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, how people think about the future
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.57,0:00:42.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how people think about the future\Nthat influences their behavior
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.88,0:00:46.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with respect to saving,\Nwith respect to studying for your exams,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.88,0:00:50.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with respect to sticking to a diet,\Nwith respect to quitting smoking.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.01,0:00:54.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what about this map\Nfreaked me out in particular?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.31,0:00:55.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me just say this was a map
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.88,0:00:58.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that was released\Nby the European Science Foundation
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.31,0:00:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the late 1990s.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.99,0:01:03.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in particular what freaked me out\Nwas this area in blue.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.62,0:01:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me put it on a different map\Nso it's a little bit easier to recognize.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.25,0:01:10.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What this is is a map of Northern Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.10,0:01:13.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what really, really\Nkind of threw me for a curve
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.47,0:01:16.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that the European Science Foundation\Nhad released a report
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.60,0:01:19.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that a number of kind of very, very\Nreputable researchers
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.58,0:01:22.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had claimed that all of the areas\Ninside this blue region
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.73,0:01:25.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were utterly and totally futureless.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.42,0:01:27.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.93,0:01:31.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's something\Nof an extreme statement.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.51,0:01:35.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I mean, as an economist,\NI'm someone used to, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.68,0:01:38.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,making predictions that go horribly awry,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.82,0:01:41.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but this almost takes the cake.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.66,0:01:44.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, perhaps\Nwith the exception of Iceland -
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.53,0:01:50.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can think about current\NEuropean financial crisis -
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.06,0:01:52.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the other areas inside this blue area
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.64,0:01:56.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually are almost perfectly\Nthe countries that are doing the best.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.78,0:01:57.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as an economist,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.78,0:02:01.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what I would say is it seems crazy\Nto call these places futureless.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.06,0:02:04.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, these places\Nare all full of countries
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.21,0:02:06.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are saving a tremendous\Namount of money,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.30,0:02:08.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,households that are saving\Na tremendous amount of money,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.92,0:02:11.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,countries that don't have\Nproblems with their bonds
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.31,0:02:14.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and are investing a tremendous amount\Nin public infrastructure
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.39,0:02:15.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in the future -
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.39,0:02:17.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they just seem to care a lot\Nabout the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.97,0:02:20.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I realized that led\Nto this confusion, though,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.53,0:02:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the team of researchers\Nat the European Science Foundation
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.67,0:02:26.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,led by kind of a superstar\Nnamed Austin Dole,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.83,0:02:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they weren't talking about\Nwhat an economist would mean
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.50,0:02:31.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they say that a place is futureless,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.47,0:02:33.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because this was a team of linguists,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.91,0:02:36.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what they were saying\Nwas that, in fact,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.20,0:02:40.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not that the households in this region\Ndon't kind of care about the future,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.25,0:02:44.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that the languages in this region\Ndon't really talk about the future
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.26,0:02:47.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the same way that languages\Noutside this area talk.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.15,0:02:48.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what that led me to think about -
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.91,0:02:51.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which I'm going to tell you\Na little bit about right now -
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.63,0:02:54.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the connection between economics,\Nhow you feel about the future
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.72,0:02:57.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how your language forces you\Nto talk about the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.44,0:03:00.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay. Let me explain a little bit\Nabout what that means.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.85,0:03:03.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, for example - you can probably tell -
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.35,0:03:04.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm Chinese,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.64,0:03:07.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, you know, growing up I realized
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.21,0:03:10.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Chinese families are different\Nin many interesting ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.52,0:03:11.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's a little bit subtle -
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.86,0:03:13.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that I didn't realize\Ntill much later -
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.91,0:03:17.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the Chinese language\Nactually forces Chinese speakers
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.21,0:03:21.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to talk about families\Nin subtly different ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.04,0:03:22.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me give you an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.47,0:03:26.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Suppose that a bunch of your friends\Ncome to you and say,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.80,0:03:28.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Would you like to go out for dinner?"
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.88,0:03:32.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you were speaking English\Nwith your friends,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.08,0:03:34.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you could say, "You know,\Nthat sounds great.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.18,0:03:36.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm really, really sorry, though,\NI have an uncle in town,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.89,0:03:39.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and tomorrow I'm going\Nto go out to dinner with him."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.78,0:03:42.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, if you were speaking Chinese\Nto your friends instead,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.58,0:03:44.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually, Chinese the language
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.01,0:03:46.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would force you to include\Na lot more information
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.78,0:03:48.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I didn't just say.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.39,0:03:52.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, for example, there is\Nno general word for uncle in Chinese;
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.94,0:03:54.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,instead, what you'd have to specify,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.66,0:03:57.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you'd be forced\Nby your language to tell your friends
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.38,0:04:00.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is whether this was an uncle\Non your mother's side of the family
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.38,0:04:02.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or your father's side of the family,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.10,0:04:03.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in fact, you'd be forced to say
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.77,0:04:06.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether or not this was an uncle\Nby birth or by marriage.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.05,0:04:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, this is actually a very, very\Nfundamental characteristic of language.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.74,0:04:13.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as you see up there,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.36,0:04:15.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the linguist Roman Jakobson\Nexpressed this best
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.68,0:04:19.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when he said, "Languages differ\Nessentially in what they must convey
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.54,0:04:21.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not in what they may convey."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.69,0:04:24.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in this sense, Chinese is forcing you
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.04,0:04:28.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to say a lot to your friends\Nabout the structure of your family
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.77,0:04:30.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in ways that if you're an English speaker,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.83,0:04:33.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you could very well think,\N"Well, they don't need to know,"
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.59,0:04:35.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or "It's none of their business."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.35,0:04:39.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, let's get back to Austin Dole\Nand these kind of European linguists.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.41,0:04:42.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What these linguists at the European\NScience Foundation discovered
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.51,0:04:45.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that when they looked\Nat languages across the globe,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.59,0:04:47.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot of global languages,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.41,0:04:48.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what they discovered
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.41,0:04:51.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that languages differ\Nin a very, very fundamental way
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.17,0:04:54.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the ways they force their speakers\Nto talk about the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.98,0:04:57.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they broke down languages\Ninto two rough categorizations:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.89,0:04:59.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One - I'll call them "weak-FTR,"
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.95,0:05:02.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or “weak future\Ntime reference languages” -
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.36,0:05:05.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are languages like Chinese,\NFinish and German,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.03,0:05:08.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which don't force speakers,\Nin fact, which allow speakers
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.91,0:05:12.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to speak about the future\Nbasically as if it's the present.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.22,0:05:16.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then other languages,\Nlike English, Greek, Italian and Russian -
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.77,0:05:18.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we'll call them "strong-FTR languages" -
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.96,0:05:22.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,force speakers to grammatically\Nrealize or to speak
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.10,0:05:25.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as if the future is something\Nviscerally different than the present.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.84,0:05:28.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for example,\Nwhen I was just telling you
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.16,0:05:32.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how I would talk to my friends \Nabout taking my uncle out for dinner,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.20,0:05:33.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if I were to say that in Chinese,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.78,0:05:37.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it would be very, very kind of common\Nand very, very easy for me to just say,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.61,0:05:40.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,''I can't go out to dinner tomorrow.\NI eat with uncle,''
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.03,0:05:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas to an English speaker,\Nthat just sounds very, very strange.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.30,0:05:47.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, a lot of people\Nwhen I first showed them this list
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.17,0:05:48.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think it's very strange
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.32,0:05:49.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because many people in this room
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.85,0:05:52.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,probably know that English\Nis a Germanic language
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.14,0:05:54.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that English and German\Nare close cousins,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.28,0:05:55.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and yet as you can see,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.95,0:05:59.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,English and German find themselves\Non opposite ends of this divide.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.66,0:06:02.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of you probably speak German.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.28,0:06:05.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One way you can think\Nabout this difference is, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.09,0:06:08.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,suppose I was going to try and predict\Nprecipitation for tomorrow.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.10,0:06:12.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In German, I could very easily say\N"Es regnet morgen"
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.12,0:06:14.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or "Morgen regnet es"
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.40,0:06:16.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or "Morgen ist es kalt,"
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.27,0:06:18.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that sounds weird\Nto an English speaker
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.36,0:06:19.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because what I'm literally saying
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.93,0:06:21.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is "Morning is cold"
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.44,0:06:25.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or "Tomorrow it rain"\Ninstead of "Tomorrow it will rain."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.20,0:06:31.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, can this have an effect\Non your behavior?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.27,0:06:33.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can this have an effect on your economics?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.99,0:06:40.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I did what, you know, economists\Nwith a crazy idea would do,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.22,0:06:43.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that is quickly\Ntry and dispel myself of crazy ideas
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.49,0:06:46.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by going and looking for as much data\Nas possible around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.59,0:06:48.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and trying to hit it as hardly as I can.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.49,0:06:52.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And let me just summarize\Nthe hypothesis that I was testing for you;
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.86,0:06:53.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.86,0:06:59.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can languages that lead speakers to talk\Nsimilarly about the present and the future
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.63,0:07:00.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lead those same speakers
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.78,0:07:03.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to feel similarly\Nabout the present and the future?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.40,0:07:04.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, why might that be important?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.97,0:07:06.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because if that's true,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.82,0:07:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then speakers of those languages\Nshould have an easier time saving,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.21,0:07:12.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,should have an easier time\Nstudying for exams,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.38,0:07:15.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,should have an easier time\Nkind of not overeating
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.07,0:07:18.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, for example, should have\Nan easier time quitting smoking.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.04,0:07:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me just say, as a broad overview,\Nthat's basically what I find.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.50,0:07:23.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All of those pattern I just told you
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.27,0:07:26.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I find in spades in every\Nmajor region of the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.19,0:07:29.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and no matter of how hard you try\Nand hit this data and make it go away,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.58,0:07:31.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can't get this pattern to disappear.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.48,0:07:33.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's work through it a bit.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.15,0:07:35.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are OECD countries\Nthat I put up in front of you.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.72,0:07:36.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What does that mean?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.72,0:07:39.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, these are generally rich\Nkind of first world countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.92,0:07:42.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They tend to have open markets\Nand be liberal democracies.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.63,0:07:45.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were talking a little bit\Nabout the European financial crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.67,0:07:48.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can look all the way\Nover there on the right -
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.09,0:07:51.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is the average savings rate\Nof countries over the last 25 years -
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.69,0:07:54.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all the way over there\Non the right is Greece, okay?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.75,0:07:55.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.77,0:07:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Saving just a little bit over 10%\Nof their GDP, okay?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.82,0:08:00.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, you know, that’s not such a surprise;
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.87,0:08:02.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know they've had\Na problem with savings.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.87,0:08:05.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a little bit impolite\Nto mention it in this audience,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.58,0:08:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if you noticed,\Nwe're the United States,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.80,0:08:09.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we’re next in line.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.41,0:08:10.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.64,0:08:12.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what I want you to notice, though -
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.55,0:08:16.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I've colored a number\Nof these bars in light blue -
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.66,0:08:19.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those light blue bars are those countries\Nwhich speak languages
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.94,0:08:23.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that don't make a strong distinction\Nbetween the present and the future, okay?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.70,0:08:25.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And according to our hypothesis,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.22,0:08:28.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that should make it easier to care\Nabout the future and easier to save.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.56,0:08:30.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we see is that's very true.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.66,0:08:33.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, is this only a feature\Nof rich countries?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.09,0:08:35.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is this only a feature\Nof well-developed economies?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.50,0:08:38.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, here's a much larger set of countries\Nfrom all over the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.84,0:08:42.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what you see this kind\Nof downwardly sloping line indicates
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.38,0:08:45.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that exact same pattern\Nseems to hold, you know,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.34,0:08:47.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically in every\Nmajor region of the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.44,0:08:48.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you speak a language
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.55,0:08:51.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that doesn't distinguish strongly\Nbetween the future and the present,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.78,0:08:54.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you just save a lot more, okay?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.33,0:08:58.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, something else\Nthat this graph, well, can show you
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.41,0:09:00.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is something which provides an opportunity
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.67,0:09:03.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to hit this question much, much more hard.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.71,0:09:04.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what is that?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.71,0:09:06.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, that is all of these countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.47,0:09:09.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these seven countries\Nyou see in the middle of the screen,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.18,0:09:12.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these are countries\Nwith multiple national languages.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.64,0:09:14.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what's fortunate about that
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.12,0:09:17.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is in many of these countries,\Nthey have multiple national languages
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.54,0:09:19.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can literally\Ntry and find families
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.80,0:09:23.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who live basically next door\Nto each other in these countries
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.72,0:09:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but who speak different languages.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.29,0:09:28.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is that going to allow us to do?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.05,0:09:31.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's going to allow us\Nto look inside countries like Switzerland,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.19,0:09:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you see people who speak German,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.00,0:09:34.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you see people who speak French,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.53,0:09:36.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you see people who speak Italian,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.10,0:09:38.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you see families that speak Romansh,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.64,0:09:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and countries in totally different parts\Nof the world, like Nigeria,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.19,0:09:46.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you'll find Hausa speakers\Nliving right next to Yoruba speakers
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.67,0:09:49.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,living right next to Igbo speakers, okay?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.45,0:09:51.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What am I going to do?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.59,0:09:54.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, these are these kinds of -\Nno, add up won more.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.14,0:09:57.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You've got eight countries\Naround the world that have this ability.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.28,0:09:58.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what I’m going to try and do
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.81,0:10:02.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is do what epidemiologists do\Nand find matched pairs of families.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.14,0:10:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What does that mean?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.14,0:10:05.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, you could imagine -
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.15,0:10:09.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,suppose I was standing up here on stage\Nwith 1.4 billion buckets, alright?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.97,0:10:13.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I took each one of you,\Nand I sorted you into these buckets.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.56,0:10:14.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Based on what?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.73,0:10:18.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, based on the country that\Nyour family was born in and is living in;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.64,0:10:21.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the sex and age\Nof the head of the household;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.13,0:10:23.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,income - the exact income\Nof your household;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.91,0:10:25.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,level of education;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.20,0:10:26.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,marital status -
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.20,0:10:29.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it turns out, in Europe,\Nthere're six different ways to be married;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.35,0:10:31.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the number of children you find\Nin your household;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.68,0:10:34.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and finally and most powerfully,\Nwhat religion you belong to -
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.59,0:10:36.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so 72 different world religions.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.78,0:10:38.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's a lot of buckets -
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.71,0:10:39.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1.4 billion.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.71,0:10:41.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, if you're lucky enough,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.05,0:10:43.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you might find yourself not alone
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.15,0:10:45.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but in a bucket with, say,\None other family.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.74,0:10:47.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That might be lucky for you.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.07,0:10:48.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have a lot to talk about,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.46,0:10:50.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have a lot in common\Nwith this family.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.41,0:10:51.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Lucky for me as a researcher,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.99,0:10:55.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every now and then, two families\Nfind themselves in the same bucket,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.18,0:10:58.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they speak languages\Nthat treat the future differently.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.36,0:11:01.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So everything I'm going to tell you\Nfrom here and now is true
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.22,0:11:03.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even when only comparing those families
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.08,0:11:06.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are basically\Non every other dimension identical.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.35,0:11:07.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do we see?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.79,0:11:09.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we see is exactly what we predicted,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.83,0:11:13.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even after you hit the data\Nwith that 1.4 billion buckets.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.35,0:11:17.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we see is that household\Nthat speak languages
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.24,0:11:20.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that make a very, very weak distinction\Nbetween the present and the future
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.89,0:11:23.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are 30% more likely\Nto save in any given year.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.81,0:11:26.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Remember that's already holding\Ntheir income constant.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.70,0:11:31.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're going to, by the time they retire,\Nhave accumulated 25% more wealth.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.71,0:11:36.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're going to be 24% less likely\Nto report having smoked intensively.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.22,0:11:38.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's like more\Nthan a packet a day for a year
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.40,0:11:40.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at any given point in their lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.60,0:11:43.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And, you know, not just kind\Nof monetary behaviors,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.28,0:11:45.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but think about health behaviors:
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.27,0:11:49.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're going to be 30% less likely\Nto be medically obese,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.30,0:11:51.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're going to be 24%\Nless likely to have smoked,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.00,0:11:53.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and on almost every dimension,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.73,0:11:56.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're going to be in measurably\Nbetter health in the long run.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.73,0:12:01.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So grip strength, long capacity,\Nwalking speed, all of these measures,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.58,0:12:06.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you could imagine your cumulative ability\Nto kind of care about your future self -
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.65,0:12:09.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eat better, exercise \Nand restrain from smoking.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.30,0:12:11.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All of those things seem to add up
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.16,0:12:13.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even when comparing families\Nin the same bucket.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.36,0:12:20.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like to leave you with this:
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.96,0:12:23.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First of all, thank you\Nvery much for listening.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.20,0:12:24.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second of all,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.85,0:12:27.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is research that's really\Nonly just getting off the ground.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.86,0:12:32.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right now, a team of linguists,\Nme, an economist,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.15,0:12:34.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a number of psychologists here in Yale
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.15,0:12:35.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are running experiments
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.26,0:12:38.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try and identify exactly\Nthe psychological mechanisms
Dialogue: 0,0:12:38.04,0:12:40.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by which these kinds\Nof relationships are working.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.37,0:12:43.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I invite you all to come to my website\Nand kind of keep up to date
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.73,0:12:46.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with what I think is a really\Nexciting new project,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.12,0:12:49.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,investigating what economists\Nhave to learn from linguists.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.41,0:12:50.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much!
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.48,0:12:53.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause) (Cheers)\N