0:00:10.072,0:00:11.784 Thank you very much. 0:00:12.264,0:00:14.785 So in the spirit[br]of this afternoon's conference, 0:00:14.785,0:00:16.265 I want to take this opportunity 0:00:16.265,0:00:19.026 to talk with you a little bit[br]about some new work I'm doing 0:00:19.246,0:00:20.397 and how it all started - 0:00:20.397,0:00:23.209 because I saw a map[br]that really freaked me out. 0:00:23.919,0:00:25.752 Let me show you that map 0:00:25.752,0:00:27.767 and give you a little bit of background. 0:00:27.767,0:00:30.165 Just to start things off and explain, 0:00:30.165,0:00:32.724 I'm a behavioral economist here at Yale. 0:00:32.724,0:00:37.224 And so, one of the things I study[br]is how people make decisions over time: 0:00:37.224,0:00:39.569 So, how people think about the future 0:00:39.569,0:00:42.882 and how people think about the future[br]that influences their behavior 0:00:42.882,0:00:46.878 with respect to saving,[br]with respect to studying for your exams, 0:00:46.878,0:00:50.729 with respect to sticking to a diet,[br]with respect to quitting smoking. 0:00:51.009,0:00:54.306 Now, what about this map[br]freaked me out in particular? 0:00:54.306,0:00:55.879 So let me just say this was a map 0:00:55.879,0:00:58.312 that was released[br]by the European Science Foundation 0:00:58.312,0:00:59.988 in the late 1990s. 0:00:59.988,0:01:03.621 And in particular what freaked me out[br]was this area in blue. 0:01:03.621,0:01:07.250 Let me put it on a different map[br]so it's a little bit easier to recognize. 0:01:07.250,0:01:10.102 What this is is a map of Northern Europe. 0:01:10.102,0:01:13.473 And what really, really[br]kind of threw me for a curve 0:01:13.473,0:01:16.597 was that the European Science Foundation[br]had released a report 0:01:16.597,0:01:19.576 that a number of kind of very, very[br]reputable researchers 0:01:19.576,0:01:22.726 had claimed that all of the areas[br]inside this blue region 0:01:22.726,0:01:25.081 were utterly and totally futureless. 0:01:25.421,0:01:27.618 (Laughter) 0:01:28.928,0:01:31.255 That's something[br]of an extreme statement. 0:01:32.507,0:01:35.685 So I mean, as an economist,[br]I'm someone used to, for example, 0:01:35.685,0:01:38.310 making predictions that go horribly awry, 0:01:38.820,0:01:41.266 but this almost takes the cake. 0:01:41.656,0:01:44.526 You know, perhaps[br]with the exception of Iceland - 0:01:44.526,0:01:50.062 you can think about current[br]European financial crisis - 0:01:50.062,0:01:52.638 and the other areas inside this blue area 0:01:52.638,0:01:56.557 actually are almost perfectly[br]the countries that are doing the best. 0:01:56.784,0:01:57.777 And as an economist, 0:01:57.777,0:02:01.055 what I would say is it seems crazy[br]to call these places futureless. 0:02:01.055,0:02:04.207 I mean, these places[br]are all full of countries 0:02:04.207,0:02:06.304 that are saving a tremendous[br]amount of money, 0:02:06.304,0:02:08.924 households that are saving[br]a tremendous amount of money, 0:02:08.924,0:02:11.306 countries that don't have[br]problems with their bonds 0:02:11.306,0:02:14.387 and are investing a tremendous amount[br]in public infrastructure 0:02:14.387,0:02:15.391 and in the future - 0:02:15.391,0:02:17.626 they just seem to care a lot[br]about the future. 0:02:17.971,0:02:20.530 What I realized that led[br]to this confusion, though, 0:02:20.530,0:02:23.673 is that the team of researchers[br]at the European Science Foundation 0:02:23.673,0:02:26.475 led by kind of a superstar[br]named Austin Dole, 0:02:26.828,0:02:29.502 they weren't talking about[br]what an economist would mean 0:02:29.502,0:02:31.468 when they say that a place is futureless, 0:02:31.468,0:02:33.700 because this was a team of linguists, 0:02:33.910,0:02:36.197 and what they were saying[br]was that, in fact, 0:02:36.197,0:02:40.246 not that the households in this region[br]don't kind of care about the future, 0:02:40.246,0:02:44.255 but that the languages in this region[br]don't really talk about the future 0:02:44.255,0:02:47.147 in the same way that languages[br]outside this area talk. 0:02:47.147,0:02:48.914 And what that led me to think about - 0:02:48.914,0:02:51.632 which I'm going to tell you[br]a little bit about right now - 0:02:51.632,0:02:54.724 is the connection between economics,[br]how you feel about the future 0:02:54.724,0:02:57.435 and how your language forces you[br]to talk about the future. 0:02:57.435,0:03:00.350 Okay. Let me explain a little bit[br]about what that means. 0:03:00.850,0:03:03.351 So, for example - you can probably tell - 0:03:03.351,0:03:04.644 I'm Chinese, 0:03:04.644,0:03:07.213 and, you know, growing up I realized 0:03:07.213,0:03:10.522 that Chinese families are different[br]in many interesting ways. 0:03:10.522,0:03:11.860 What's a little bit subtle - 0:03:11.860,0:03:13.907 and that I didn't realize[br]till much later - 0:03:13.907,0:03:17.212 is that the Chinese language[br]actually forces Chinese speakers 0:03:17.212,0:03:21.038 to talk about families[br]in subtly different ways. 0:03:21.038,0:03:22.472 So let me give you an example. 0:03:22.472,0:03:26.145 Suppose that a bunch of your friends[br]come to you and say, 0:03:26.805,0:03:28.818 "Would you like to go out for dinner?" 0:03:29.884,0:03:32.077 If you were speaking English[br]with your friends, 0:03:32.077,0:03:34.175 you could say, "You know,[br]that sounds great. 0:03:34.175,0:03:36.888 I'm really, really sorry, though,[br]I have an uncle in town, 0:03:36.888,0:03:39.364 and tomorrow I'm going[br]to go out to dinner with him." 0:03:39.781,0:03:42.582 Now, if you were speaking Chinese[br]to your friends instead, 0:03:42.582,0:03:44.011 actually, Chinese the language 0:03:44.011,0:03:46.776 would force you to include[br]a lot more information 0:03:46.776,0:03:48.389 that I didn't just say. 0:03:48.389,0:03:52.938 So, for example, there is[br]no general word for uncle in Chinese; 0:03:52.938,0:03:54.658 instead, what you'd have to specify, 0:03:54.658,0:03:57.376 what you'd be forced[br]by your language to tell your friends 0:03:57.376,0:04:00.376 is whether this was an uncle[br]on your mother's side of the family 0:04:00.376,0:04:02.096 or your father's side of the family, 0:04:02.096,0:04:03.768 and in fact, you'd be forced to say 0:04:03.768,0:04:06.964 whether or not this was an uncle[br]by birth or by marriage. 0:04:08.046,0:04:11.737 So, this is actually a very, very[br]fundamental characteristic of language. 0:04:11.737,0:04:13.359 And as you see up there, 0:04:13.359,0:04:15.676 the linguist Roman Jakobson[br]expressed this best 0:04:15.676,0:04:19.542 when he said, "Languages differ[br]essentially in what they must convey 0:04:19.542,0:04:21.694 and not in what they may convey." 0:04:21.694,0:04:24.035 So in this sense, Chinese is forcing you 0:04:24.035,0:04:28.431 to say a lot to your friends[br]about the structure of your family 0:04:28.770,0:04:30.829 in ways that if you're an English speaker, 0:04:30.829,0:04:33.588 you could very well think,[br]"Well, they don't need to know," 0:04:33.588,0:04:35.347 or "It's none of their business." 0:04:35.347,0:04:39.413 Now, let's get back to Austin Dole[br]and these kind of European linguists. 0:04:39.413,0:04:42.506 What these linguists at the European[br]Science Foundation discovered 0:04:42.506,0:04:45.592 was that when they looked[br]at languages across the globe, 0:04:45.592,0:04:47.410 a lot of global languages, 0:04:47.410,0:04:48.414 what they discovered 0:04:48.414,0:04:51.170 was that languages differ[br]in a very, very fundamental way 0:04:51.170,0:04:54.581 in the ways they force their speakers[br]to talk about the future. 0:04:54.981,0:04:57.894 And they broke down languages[br]into two rough categorizations: 0:04:57.894,0:04:59.953 One - I'll call them "weak-FTR," 0:04:59.953,0:05:02.357 or “weak future[br]time reference languages” - 0:05:02.357,0:05:05.033 are languages like Chinese,[br]Finish and German, 0:05:05.033,0:05:08.912 which don't force speakers,[br]in fact, which allow speakers 0:05:08.912,0:05:12.963 to speak about the future[br]basically as if it's the present. 0:05:13.215,0:05:16.774 And then other languages,[br]like English, Greek, Italian and Russian - 0:05:16.774,0:05:18.961 we'll call them "strong-FTR languages" - 0:05:18.961,0:05:22.098 force speakers to grammatically[br]realize or to speak 0:05:22.098,0:05:25.495 as if the future is something[br]viscerally different than the present. 0:05:25.843,0:05:28.155 So for example,[br]when I was just telling you 0:05:28.155,0:05:32.204 how I would talk to my friends [br]about taking my uncle out for dinner, 0:05:32.204,0:05:33.780 if I were to say that in Chinese, 0:05:33.780,0:05:37.610 it would be very, very kind of common[br]and very, very easy for me to just say, 0:05:37.610,0:05:40.430 ''I can't go out to dinner tomorrow.[br]I eat with uncle,'' 0:05:41.030,0:05:44.300 whereas to an English speaker,[br]that just sounds very, very strange. 0:05:44.300,0:05:47.166 Now, a lot of people[br]when I first showed them this list 0:05:47.166,0:05:48.323 think it's very strange 0:05:48.323,0:05:49.852 because many people in this room 0:05:49.852,0:05:52.138 probably know that English[br]is a Germanic language 0:05:52.138,0:05:54.277 and that English and German[br]are close cousins, 0:05:54.277,0:05:55.682 and yet as you can see, 0:05:55.952,0:05:59.722 English and German find themselves[br]on opposite ends of this divide. 0:06:00.660,0:06:02.281 Many of you probably speak German. 0:06:02.281,0:06:05.092 One way you can think[br]about this difference is, for example, 0:06:05.092,0:06:08.435 suppose I was going to try and predict[br]precipitation for tomorrow. 0:06:09.104,0:06:12.124 In German, I could very easily say[br]"Es regnet morgen" 0:06:12.124,0:06:14.362 or "Morgen regnet es" 0:06:14.402,0:06:16.251 or "Morgen ist es kalt," 0:06:16.271,0:06:18.359 and that sounds weird[br]to an English speaker 0:06:18.359,0:06:19.933 because what I'm literally saying 0:06:19.933,0:06:21.436 is "Morning is cold" 0:06:21.436,0:06:25.686 or "Tomorrow it rain"[br]instead of "Tomorrow it will rain." 0:06:27.196,0:06:31.269 Now, can this have an effect[br]on your behavior? 0:06:31.269,0:06:33.987 Can this have an effect on your economics? 0:06:33.987,0:06:40.224 Well, I did what, you know, economists[br]with a crazy idea would do, 0:06:40.224,0:06:43.492 and that is quickly[br]try and dispel myself of crazy ideas 0:06:43.492,0:06:46.588 by going and looking for as much data[br]as possible around the world 0:06:46.588,0:06:48.494 and trying to hit it as hardly as I can. 0:06:48.494,0:06:52.673 And let me just summarize[br]the hypothesis that I was testing for you; 0:06:52.863,0:06:53.856 that is, 0:06:53.856,0:06:59.634 can languages that lead speakers to talk[br]similarly about the present and the future 0:06:59.634,0:07:00.785 lead those same speakers 0:07:00.785,0:07:03.405 to feel similarly[br]about the present and the future? 0:07:03.405,0:07:04.974 Now, why might that be important? 0:07:04.974,0:07:06.819 Because if that's true, 0:07:06.819,0:07:10.206 then speakers of those languages[br]should have an easier time saving, 0:07:10.206,0:07:12.345 should have an easier time[br]studying for exams, 0:07:12.375,0:07:15.071 should have an easier time[br]kind of not overeating 0:07:15.071,0:07:18.040 and, for example, should have[br]an easier time quitting smoking. 0:07:18.040,0:07:21.504 Let me just say, as a broad overview,[br]that's basically what I find. 0:07:21.504,0:07:23.268 All of those pattern I just told you 0:07:23.268,0:07:26.192 I find in spades in every[br]major region of the world, 0:07:26.192,0:07:29.581 and no matter of how hard you try[br]and hit this data and make it go away, 0:07:29.581,0:07:31.485 you can't get this pattern to disappear. 0:07:31.485,0:07:33.147 Let's work through it a bit. 0:07:33.147,0:07:35.720 These are OECD countries[br]that I put up in front of you. 0:07:35.720,0:07:36.723 What does that mean? 0:07:36.723,0:07:39.916 Well, these are generally rich[br]kind of first world countries. 0:07:39.916,0:07:42.629 They tend to have open markets[br]and be liberal democracies. 0:07:42.629,0:07:45.670 We were talking a little bit[br]about the European financial crisis. 0:07:45.670,0:07:48.091 You can look all the way[br]over there on the right - 0:07:48.091,0:07:51.692 this is the average savings rate[br]of countries over the last 25 years - 0:07:51.692,0:07:54.754 and all the way over there[br]on the right is Greece, okay? 0:07:54.754,0:07:55.766 (Laughter) 0:07:55.766,0:07:58.824 Saving just a little bit over 10%[br]of their GDP, okay? 0:07:58.824,0:08:00.868 So, you know, that’s not such a surprise; 0:08:00.868,0:08:02.868 we know they've had[br]a problem with savings. 0:08:02.868,0:08:05.581 It's a little bit impolite[br]to mention it in this audience, 0:08:05.581,0:08:07.803 but if you noticed,[br]we're the United States, 0:08:07.803,0:08:09.410 and we’re next in line. 0:08:09.410,0:08:10.640 (Laughter) 0:08:10.640,0:08:12.549 Now, what I want you to notice, though - 0:08:12.549,0:08:16.660 because I've colored a number[br]of these bars in light blue - 0:08:16.660,0:08:19.941 those light blue bars are those countries[br]which speak languages 0:08:19.941,0:08:23.697 that don't make a strong distinction[br]between the present and the future, okay? 0:08:23.697,0:08:25.225 And according to our hypothesis, 0:08:25.225,0:08:28.563 that should make it easier to care[br]about the future and easier to save. 0:08:28.563,0:08:30.656 What we see is that's very true. 0:08:30.656,0:08:33.092 Now, is this only a feature[br]of rich countries? 0:08:33.092,0:08:35.495 Is this only a feature[br]of well-developed economies? 0:08:35.495,0:08:38.836 No, here's a much larger set of countries[br]from all over the world. 0:08:38.836,0:08:42.385 And what you see this kind[br]of downwardly sloping line indicates 0:08:42.385,0:08:45.343 is that exact same pattern[br]seems to hold, you know, 0:08:45.343,0:08:47.444 basically in every[br]major region of the world. 0:08:47.444,0:08:48.546 If you speak a language 0:08:48.546,0:08:51.785 that doesn't distinguish strongly[br]between the future and the present, 0:08:51.785,0:08:54.326 you just save a lot more, okay? 0:08:54.326,0:08:58.413 Now, something else[br]that this graph, well, can show you 0:08:58.413,0:09:00.626 is something which provides an opportunity 0:09:00.666,0:09:03.682 to hit this question much, much more hard. 0:09:03.712,0:09:04.706 And what is that? 0:09:04.706,0:09:06.466 Well, that is all of these countries, 0:09:06.466,0:09:09.177 these seven countries[br]you see in the middle of the screen, 0:09:09.177,0:09:12.641 these are countries[br]with multiple national languages. 0:09:12.641,0:09:14.121 And what's fortunate about that 0:09:14.121,0:09:17.545 is in many of these countries,[br]they have multiple national languages 0:09:17.545,0:09:19.804 and you can literally[br]try and find families 0:09:19.804,0:09:23.373 who live basically next door[br]to each other in these countries 0:09:23.723,0:09:26.002 but who speak different languages. 0:09:26.287,0:09:28.048 What is that going to allow us to do? 0:09:28.048,0:09:31.191 That's going to allow us[br]to look inside countries like Switzerland, 0:09:31.191,0:09:33.002 where you see people who speak German, 0:09:33.002,0:09:34.530 you see people who speak French, 0:09:34.530,0:09:36.104 you see people who speak Italian, 0:09:36.104,0:09:38.643 and you see families that speak Romansh, 0:09:38.643,0:09:42.189 and countries in totally different parts[br]of the world, like Nigeria, 0:09:42.189,0:09:46.669 where you'll find Hausa speakers[br]living right next to Yoruba speakers 0:09:46.669,0:09:49.472 living right next to Igbo speakers, okay? 0:09:50.454,0:09:51.590 What am I going to do? 0:09:51.590,0:09:54.136 Well, these are these kinds of -[br]no, add up won more - 0:09:54.136,0:09:57.282 you've got eight countries[br]around the world that have this ability. 0:09:57.282,0:09:58.806 And what I’m going to try and do 0:09:58.806,0:10:02.136 is do what epidemiologists do[br]and find matched pairs of families. 0:10:02.136,0:10:03.137 What does that mean? 0:10:03.137,0:10:05.153 Well, you could imagine - 0:10:05.153,0:10:09.970 suppose I was standing up here on stage[br]with 1.4 billion buckets, alright? 0:10:09.970,0:10:13.562 And I took each one of you,[br]and I sorted you into these buckets. 0:10:13.562,0:10:14.727 Based on what? 0:10:14.727,0:10:18.394 Well, based on the country that[br]your family was born in and is living in; 0:10:18.644,0:10:21.127 the sex and age[br]of the head of the household; 0:10:21.127,0:10:23.906 income - the exact income[br]of your household; 0:10:23.906,0:10:25.203 level of education; 0:10:25.203,0:10:26.199 marital status - 0:10:26.199,0:10:29.346 it turns out, in Europe,[br]there're six different ways to be married; 0:10:29.346,0:10:31.683 the number of children you find[br]in your household; 0:10:31.683,0:10:34.586 and finally and most powerfully,[br]what religion you belong to - 0:10:34.586,0:10:36.778 so 72 different world religions. 0:10:36.778,0:10:38.709 Now, that's a lot of buckets - 0:10:38.709,0:10:39.714 1.4 billion. 0:10:39.714,0:10:41.049 So, if you're lucky enough, 0:10:41.049,0:10:43.153 you might find yourself not alone 0:10:43.153,0:10:45.738 but in a bucket with, say,[br]one other family. 0:10:45.738,0:10:47.074 That might be lucky for you. 0:10:47.074,0:10:48.457 You have a lot to talk about, 0:10:48.457,0:10:50.408 you have a lot in common[br]with this family. 0:10:50.408,0:10:51.991 Lucky for me as a researcher, 0:10:51.991,0:10:55.180 every now and then, two families[br]find themselves in the same bucket, 0:10:55.180,0:10:58.360 but they speak languages[br]that treat the future differently. 0:10:58.360,0:11:01.218 So everything I'm going to tell you[br]from here and now is true 0:11:01.218,0:11:03.080 even when only comparing those families 0:11:03.080,0:11:06.349 that are basically[br]on every other dimension identical. 0:11:06.349,0:11:07.794 What do we see? 0:11:07.794,0:11:09.827 What we see is exactly what we predicted, 0:11:09.827,0:11:13.346 even after you hit the data[br]with that 1.4 billion buckets. 0:11:13.346,0:11:17.236 What we see is that household[br]that speak languages 0:11:17.236,0:11:20.889 that make a very, very weak distinction[br]between the present and the future 0:11:20.889,0:11:23.813 are 30% more likely[br]to save in any given year. 0:11:23.813,0:11:26.699 Remember that's already holding[br]their income constant. 0:11:26.699,0:11:31.068 They're going to, by the time they retire,[br]have accumulated 25% more wealth. 0:11:31.708,0:11:36.215 They're going to be 24% less likely[br]to report having smoked intensively. 0:11:36.215,0:11:38.404 That's like more[br]than a packet a day for a year 0:11:38.404,0:11:40.599 at any given point in their lives. 0:11:40.599,0:11:43.276 And, you know, not just kind[br]of monetary behaviors, 0:11:43.276,0:11:45.271 but think about health behaviors: 0:11:45.271,0:11:49.305 they're going to be 30% less likely[br]to be medically obese, 0:11:49.305,0:11:51.985 they're going to be 24%[br]less likely to have smoked, 0:11:52.005,0:11:53.730 and on almost every dimension, 0:11:53.730,0:11:56.731 they're going to be in measurably[br]better health in the long run. 0:11:56.731,0:12:01.584 So grip strength, long capacity,[br]walking speed, all of these measures, 0:12:01.584,0:12:06.646 you could imagine your cumulative ability[br]to kind of care about your future self - 0:12:06.646,0:12:09.296 eat better, exercise [br]and restrain from smoking. 0:12:09.296,0:12:11.159 All of those things seem to add up 0:12:11.159,0:12:13.888 even when comparing families[br]in the same bucket. 0:12:16.359,0:12:20.314 I'd like to leave you with this: 0:12:20.964,0:12:23.199 First of all, thank you[br]very much for listening. 0:12:23.199,0:12:24.576 Second of all, 0:12:24.846,0:12:27.857 this is research that's really[br]only just getting off the ground. 0:12:27.857,0:12:32.150 Right now, a team of linguists,[br]me, an economist, 0:12:32.150,0:12:34.154 and a number of psychologists here in Yale 0:12:34.154,0:12:35.257 are running experiments 0:12:35.257,0:12:38.042 to try and identify exactly[br]the psychological mechanisms 0:12:38.042,0:12:40.373 by which these kinds[br]of relationships are working. 0:12:40.373,0:12:43.732 And I invite you all to come to my website[br]and kind of keep up to date 0:12:43.732,0:12:46.119 with what I think is a really[br]exciting new project, 0:12:46.119,0:12:49.198 investigating what economists[br]have to learn from linguists. 0:12:49.408,0:12:50.478 Thank you very much! 0:12:50.478,0:12:53.962 (Applause) (Cheers)[br]