1 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Chris Anderson: Welcome. 2 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So look, just six months ago, 3 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 it seems a lifetime ago, but it really was just six months ago, 4 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 climate seemed to be on the lips of every thinking person on the planet. 5 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Recent events seem to have swept it all away from our attention. 6 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 How worried are you about that? 7 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Al Gore: Well, first of all Chris, thank you so much for inviting me 8 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to have this conversation. 9 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 People are reacting differently 10 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to the climate crisis 11 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in the midst of these other great challenges 12 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that have taken over our awareness, 13 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 appropriately. 14 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 One reason is something that you mentioned. 15 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 People get the fact that when scientists 16 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 are warning us 17 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in ever more dire terms 18 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and setting their hair on fire, so to speak, 19 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 it's best to listen to what they're saying, 20 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and I think that lesson has begun to sink in in a new way. 21 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Another similarity, by the way, 22 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is that the climate crisis, 23 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 like the COVID-19 pandemic, 24 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 has revealed in a new way 25 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the shocking injustices and inequalities 26 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and disparities that affect communities of color 27 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and low-income communities. 28 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There are differences. 29 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The climate crisis has effects that are not measured in years, 30 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 as the pandemic is, 31 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but consequences that are measured in centuries and even longer. 32 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And the other difference 33 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is that instead of depressing economic activity 34 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to deal with the climate crisis, 35 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 as nations around the world have had to do with COVID-19, 36 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we have the opportunity to create tens of millions of new jobs. 37 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That sounds like a political phrasing, 38 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but it's literally true. 39 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 For the last five years, 40 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the fastest-growing job in the US has been solar installer. 41 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The second fastest has been wind turbine technician. 42 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And the Oxford Review of Economics 43 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 just a few weeks ago 44 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 pointed the way to a very jobs-rich recovery 45 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if we emphasize renewable energy and sustainability technology. 46 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So I think we are crossing a tipping point, 47 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and you need only look at the recovery plans 48 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that are being presented in nations around the world 49 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to see that they're very much focused on a green recovery. 50 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: I mean, one obvious impact of the pandemic 51 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is that it's brought the world's economy to a shuddering halt, 52 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 53 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I mean, how big an effect has that been, 54 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and is it unambiguously good news? 55 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, it's a little bit of an illusion, Chris, 56 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and you need only look back to the Great Recession in 2008 and '9, 57 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 where there was a one percent decline in emissions, 58 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but then in 2010 59 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they came roaring back during the recovery 60 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with a four percent increase. 61 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The latest estimates are that emissions will go down by at least five percent 62 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 during this induced coma, 63 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 as the economist Paul Krugman perceptively described it, 64 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but whether it goes back the way it did after the Great Recession 65 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is in part up to us, 66 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and if these green recovery plans are actually implemented, 67 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and I know many countries are determined to implement them, 68 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 then we need not repeat that pattern. 69 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 After all, this whole process is occurring 70 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 during a period when the cost of renewable energy and electric vehicles, 71 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 batteries, and a range of other sustainability approaches 72 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 are continuing to fall in price, 73 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and they're becoming much more competitive. 74 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Just a quick reference to how fast this is: 75 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 five years ago, electricity from solar and wind 76 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 was cheaper than electricity from fossil fuels 77 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in only one percent of the world. 78 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 This year, it's cheaper in two thirds of the world, 79 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and five years from now 80 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 it will be cheaper in virtually 100 percent of the world. 81 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 EVs will be cost-competitive within two years, 82 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and then will continue falling in price. 83 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And so there are changes underway 84 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that could interrupt the pattern we saw after the Great Recession. 85 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: The reason those pricing differentials happen in different parts of the world 86 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is obviously just because 87 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 there's different amounts of sunshine and wind there 88 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and different building costs and so forth. 89 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, yes, and government policies also count for a lot. 90 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The world is continuing to subsidize fossil fuels 91 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 at a ridiculous amount, 92 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 moreso may developing countries than in the US and developed countries, 93 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but it's subsidized here as well. 94 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But everywhere in the world, 95 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 wind and solar will be cheaper as a source of electricity 96 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 than fossil fuels within a few years. 97 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: I think I've heard it said that the fall in emissions 98 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 caused the pandemic 99 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 isn't that much more 100 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 than the fall that we will need every single year 101 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if we're to meet emissions targets. 102 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Is that true, and, if so, 103 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 doesn't that seem impossibly daunting? 104 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: It does seem daunting, but first look at the number. 105 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That number came from a study a little over a year ago 106 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 released by the IPCC 107 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 as to what it would take 108 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to keep the Earth's temperatures 109 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from increasing more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. 110 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And yes, the annual reductions would be significant, 111 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 on the order of what we've seen with the pandemic. 112 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And yes, that does seem daunting. 113 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 However, we do have the opportunity to make some fairly dramatic changes, 114 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the plan is not a mystery. 115 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 You start with the two sectors that are closest to an effective transition -- 116 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 electricity generation, as I mentioned, 117 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and last year, 2019, 118 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if you look at all of the new electricity generation built 119 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 all around the world, 120 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 72 percent of it was from solar and wind. 121 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And already, without the continuing subsidies for fossil fuels, 122 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we would see many more of these plants 123 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 being shut down. 124 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There are some new fossil plants being built, 125 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but many more are being shut down. 126 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And where transportation is concerned, 127 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the second sector ready to go, 128 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in addition to the cheaper prices for EVs that I made reference to before, 129 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 there are some 45 jurisdictions around the world -- 130 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 national, regional, and municipal -- 131 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 where laws have been passed beginning a phaseout 132 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of internal combustion engines. 133 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Even India said that by 2030, less than 10 years from now, 134 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 it will be illegal to sell any new internal combustion engines 135 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in India. 136 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There are many other examples. 137 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So the past small reductions 138 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 may not be an accurate guide 139 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to the kind we can achieve 140 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with serious national plans 141 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and a focused global effort. 142 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: So help us understand just the big picture here, Al. 143 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I think before the pandemic, 144 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the world was emitting 145 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 about 55 gigatons of what they call CO2 equivalent, 146 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 so that includes other greenhouse gases 147 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 like methane dialed up to be the equivalent of CO2. 148 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And am I right in saying that the IPCC, 149 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 which is the global organization of scientists, 150 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is recommending that the only way to fix this crisis 151 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is to get that number from 55 to zero 152 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 by 2050 at the very latest, 153 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and that even then that there's a chance that we will end up with temperature rises 154 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 more like two degrees Celsius rather than 1.5. 155 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I mean, is that approximately the big picture 156 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of what the IPCC is recommending? 157 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: That's correct. 158 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The global goal established in the Paris Conference 159 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is to get to net zero on a global basis 160 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 by 2050, 161 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and many people quickly add 162 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that that really means a 45 to 50 percent reduction by 2030 163 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to make that pathway 164 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to net zero feasible. 165 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: And that kind of timeline is the kind of timeline 166 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 where people can't even imagine. 167 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It's just hard to think of policy over 30 years. 168 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So that's actually a very good shorthand, 169 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that humanity's task is to cut emissions in half by 2030, 170 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 approximately speaking, 171 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 which I think boils down to 172 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 about a seven or eight percent reduction a year, something like that, 173 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if I'm not wrong. 174 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Not quite. Not quite that large, 175 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but close, yes. 176 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: So it is something like the effect that we've experienced this year 177 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 maybe be necessary. 178 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 This year we've done it by basically shutting down the economy. 179 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 You're talking about a way of doing it over the coming years 180 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that actually gives some economic growth and new jobs. 181 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So talk more about that. 182 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 You've referred to changing our energy sources, 183 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 changing how we transport. 184 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 If we did those things, 185 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 how much of the problem does that solve? 186 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, we can get to, 187 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 well, in addition to doing the two sectors that I mentioned, 188 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we also have to deal with manufacturing and all the use cases 189 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that require temperatures to a thousand degrees Celsius, 190 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and there are solutions there as well. 191 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I'll come back and mention an exciting one that Germany has just embarked upon. 192 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We also have to tackle regenerative agriculture. 193 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There is the opportunity 194 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to sequester a great deal of carbon 195 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in topsoils around the world 196 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 by changing the agricultural techniques. 197 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There is a farmer-led movement to do that. 198 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We need to also retrofit buildings. 199 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We need to change our management of forests and the ocean. 200 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But let me just mention two things briefly. 201 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 First of all, the high temperature use cases. 202 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Angela Merkel, just 10 days ago, 203 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with the leadership of her Minister Peter Altmaier, 204 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who is a good friend and a great public servant, 205 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 have just embarked on a green hydrogen strategy 206 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to make hydrogen 207 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with zero marginal cost renewable energy. 208 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And just a word on that, Chris, 209 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you've heard about the intermittency of wind and solar. 210 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Solar doesn't produce electricity when the sun's not shining 211 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and wind doesn't when the wind's not blowing. 212 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But batteries are getting better, 213 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and these technologies are becoming much more efficient and powerful, 214 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 so that for an increasing number of hours of each day, 215 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they're producing often way more electricity than can be used. 216 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So what to do with it? 217 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The marginal cost for the next kilowatt-hour is zero. 218 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So all of a sudden, 219 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the very energy-intensive process of cracking hydrogen from water 220 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 becomes economically feasible, 221 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and it can be substituted 222 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for coal and gas, 223 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and that's already being done. 224 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There's a Swedish company already making steel 225 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with green hydrogen, 226 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and as I say Germany has just embarked on a major new initiative to do that. 227 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I think they're pointing the way for the rest of the world. 228 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Now, where building retrofits are concerned, just a moment on this, 229 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because about 20 to 25 percent of the global warming pollution 230 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in the world and in the US 231 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 comes from inefficient buildings 232 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that were constructed 233 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 by companies and individuals 234 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who were trying to be competitive in the marketplace 235 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and keep their margins acceptably high 236 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and thereby skimping on insulation and the right windows 237 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and LEDs and the rest. 238 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And yet the person or company that buys that building 239 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 or leases that building, 240 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they want their monthly utility bills much lower. 241 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So there are now ways 242 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to close that so-called agent-principal divide, 243 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the differing incentives for the building and occupier, 244 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we can retrofit buildings with a program that literally pays for itself 245 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 over three to five years, 246 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we could put tens of millions of people to work 247 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in jobs that by definition cannot be outsourced 248 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because they exist in every single community. 249 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And we really ought to get serious about doing this, 250 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because we're going to need all those jobs 251 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to get sustainable prosperity in the aftermath of this pandemic. 252 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: Just coming back to the hydrogen economy 253 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that you referred to there, 254 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 when some people hear that, 255 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they think, oh, are you talking about hydrogen-fueled cars? 256 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And they've heard that that probably won't be a winning strategy. 257 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But you're thinking much more broadly than that, I think, 258 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that it's not just hydrogen as a kind of storage mechanism 259 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to act as a buffer for renewable energy, 260 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but also hydrogen could be essential 261 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for some of the other processes in the economy like making steel, 262 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 making cement 263 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that are fundamentally carbon-intensive processes right now 264 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but could be transformed if we had much cheaper sources of hydrogen. 265 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Is that right? 266 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Yes, I was always skeptical about hydrogen, Chris, 267 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 principally because it's been so expensive 268 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to make it, 269 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to crack it out of water, as they say. 270 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But the game-changer has been the incredible abundance 271 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of solar and wind electricity in volumes and amounts 272 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that people didn't expect, 273 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and all of a sudden it's cheap enough to use 274 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for these very energy-intensive processes 275 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 like creating green hydrogen. 276 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I'm still a bit skeptical about using it in vehicles. 277 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Toyota's been betting on that for 25 years and hasn't really worked for them. 278 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Never say never, maybe it will, 279 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but I think it's most useful for these high-temperature industrial processes, 280 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we already have a pathway for decarbonizing transportation 281 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with electricity 282 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that's working extremely well. 283 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Tesla's going to be soon the most valuable automobile company in the world, 284 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 already in the US, 285 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and they're about to overtake Toyota. 286 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There is now a semi truck company 287 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that's been stood up by Tesla 288 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and another that is going to be a hybrid with electricity and green hydrogen, 289 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 so we'll see whether or not they can make it work in that application. 290 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But I think electricity is preferable for cars and trucks. 291 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: We're coming to some community questions in a minute. 292 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Let me ask you, though, about nuclear. 293 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Some environmentalists believe that nuclear, 294 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 or maybe new generation nuclear power 295 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is an essential part of the equation 296 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if we're to get to a truly clean future, 297 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 a clean energy future. 298 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Are you still pretty skeptical on nuclear, Al? 299 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, the market's skeptical about it, Chris. 300 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It's been a crushing disappointment for me and for so many. 301 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I used to represent Oak Ridge, where nuclear energy began, 302 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and when I was a young congressman 303 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I was a booster. 304 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I was very enthusiastic about it. 305 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But the cost overruns 306 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the problems in building these plants 307 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 have become so severe 308 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that utilities just don't have an appetite for them. 309 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It's become the most expensive source of electricity. 310 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Now, let me hasten to add that there are some older nuclear reactors 311 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that have more useful time that could be added on to their lifetimes, 312 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and like a lot of environmentalists I've come to the view 313 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that if they can be determined to be safe, 314 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they should be allowed to continue operating for a time. 315 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But where new nuclear power plants are concerned, 316 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 here's a way to look at it. 317 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 If you are -- you've been a CEO, Chris. 318 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 If you were the CEO of -- I guess you still are. 319 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 If you were the CEO of an electric utility, 320 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and you told your executive team, 321 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 "I want to build a nuclear power plant," 322 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 two of the first questions you would ask are, number one, 323 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 how much will it cost? 324 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And there's not a single engineering consulting firm 325 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that I've been able to find anywhere in the world 326 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that will put their name on an opinion 327 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 giving you a cost estimate. 328 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They just don't know. 329 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 A second question you would ask is, how long will it take to build it 330 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 so we can start selling the electricity? 331 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And again the answer you will get is, 332 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we have no idea. 333 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So if you don't know how much it's going to cost, 334 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and you don't know when it's going to be finished, 335 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and you already know that the electricity is more expensive 336 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 than the alternate ways to produce it, 337 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that's going to be a little discouraging, 338 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and in fact that's been the case for utilities around the world. 339 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: OK. 340 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So there's definitely an interesting debate there, 341 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but we're going to come on to some community questions. 342 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Let's have the first of those questions up please. 343 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 From Prosanta Chakrbarty: 344 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 "People who are skeptical of COVID and of climate change 345 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 seem to be skeptical of science in general. 346 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It may be that the singular message from scientists 347 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 gets diluted and convoluted. 348 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 How do we fix that? 349 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Yeah, that's a great question, Prosanta. 350 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Boy, I'm trying to put this succinctly and shortly. 351 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I think that there has been 352 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 a feeling that experts in general 353 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 have kind of let the US down, 354 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and that feeling is much more pronounced in the US than in most other countries. 355 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And I think that considered opinion 356 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of what we call experts 357 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 has been diluted over the last few decades 358 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 by the unhealthy dominance of big money in our political system 359 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 which has found ways to really twist economic policy 360 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to benefit elites, 361 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and this sounds a little radical 362 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but it's actually what has happened. 363 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And we have gone for more than 40 years 364 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 without any meaningful increase in middle income pay, 365 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and where the injustice experienced by African Americans 366 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and other communities of color are concerned, 367 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the differential in pay between African Americans and majority Americans 368 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is the same as it was in 1968, 369 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the family wealth, 370 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the net worth, 371 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 it takes 11 and a half so-called "typical" African American families 372 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to make up the net worth of one so-called "typical" White American family. 373 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And you look at the soaring incomes 374 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in the top one 375 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 or the top one tenth of one percent, 376 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and people say, "Wait a minute. 377 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Whoever the experts were that designed these policies, 378 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they haven't been doing a good job for me." 379 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 A final point, Chris, 380 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 there has been an assault on reason. 381 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There has been a war against truth. 382 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There has been a strategy, 383 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 maybe it was best known as a strategy decades ago by the tobacco companies 384 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who hired actors and dressed them up as doctors to falsely reassure people 385 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that there were no health consequences 386 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from smoking cigarettes, 387 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and a hundred million people died as a result. 388 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That same strategy of diminishing the significance of truth, 389 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 diminishing, as someone said, the authority of knowledge, 390 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I think that has made it open season 391 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 on any inconvenient truth -- 392 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 forgive another buzz phrase -- 393 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but it is apt. 394 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We cannot abandon our devotion to the best available evidence 395 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 tested in reasoned discourse 396 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and used as the basis 397 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for the best policies we can form. 398 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: Is it possible, Al, that one consequence of the pandemic 399 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is actually a growing number of people 400 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 have revisited their opinions 401 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 on scientists? 402 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I mean, you've had a chance in the last few months to say, 403 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 do I trust my political leader or do I trust this scientist 404 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in terms of what they're saying 405 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 about this virus. 406 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Maybe lessons from that could be carried forward? 407 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, you know, I think if the polling is accurate, 408 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 people do trust their doctors a lot more than some of the politicians 409 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who seem to have a vested interest in pretending the pandemic isn't real. 410 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And if you look at the incredible bust 411 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 at President Trump's rally in Tulsa, 412 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 a stadium of 19,000 people 413 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with less than one third filled, 414 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 according to the fire marshal, 415 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you saw all the empty seats 416 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if you saw the news clips, 417 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 so even the most loyal Trump supporters 418 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 must have decided to trust their doctors 419 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the medical advice 420 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 rather than Dr. Donald Trump. 421 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: With a little help from the TikTok generation, per chance. 422 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, but that didn't affect the turnout. 423 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 What they did, very cleverly, and I'm cheering them on, 424 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 what they did was affect the Trump White House's expectations. 425 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They're the reason why he went out a couple days beforehand 426 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and said, "We've had a million people sign up." 427 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But they didn't prevent, 428 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they didn't take seats that others could have otherwise taken. 429 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They didn't affect the turnout, just the expectations. 430 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: OK, let's have our next question here. 431 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 "Are you concerned the world will rush back to the use of the private car 432 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 out of fear of using shared public transportation?" 433 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, that could actually be one of the consequences, absolutely. 434 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Now, the trends on mass transit 435 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 were already inching in the wrong direction 436 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because of Uber and Lyft 437 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the ridesharing services, 438 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and if autonomy ever reaches the goals that its advocates have hoped for 439 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 then that may also have a similar effect. 440 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But there's no doubt that some people 441 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 are gonna be probably a little more reluctant to take mass transportation 442 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 until the fear of this pandemic 443 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is well and truly gone. 444 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: Yeah. Might need a vaccine on that one. 445 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: (Laughs) Yeah. 446 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: Next question. 447 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Sonaar Luthra, thank you for this question from LA. 448 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 "Given the temperature rise in the Arctic this past week, 449 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 seems like the rate we are losing our carbon sinks 450 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 like permafrost or forests is accelerating faster than we predicted. 451 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Are our models too focused on human emissions?" 452 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Interesting question. 453 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, the models are focused on the factors that have led 454 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to these incredible temperature spikes 455 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in the north of the Arctic Circle. 456 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They were predicted, they have been predicted, 457 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and one of the reasons for it 458 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is that as the snow and ice cover melts, 459 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the sun's incoming rays 460 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 are no longer reflected back into space at a 90 percent rate, 461 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and instead when they fall on the dark tundra or the dark ocean, 462 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they're absorbed at a 90 percent rate. 463 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So that's a magnifier 464 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of the warming in the Arctic, 465 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and this has been predicted. 466 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There are a number of other consequences that are also in the models, 467 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but some of them may have to be recalibrated. 468 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The scientists are freshly concerned 469 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that the emissions of both CO2 and methane 470 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from the thawing tundra 471 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 could be larger than they had hoped they would be. 472 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There's also just been a brand new study. 473 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I won't spend time on this, 474 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because it deals with a kind of geeky term called "climate sensitivity," 475 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 which has been a factor in the models with large error bars 476 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because it's so hard to pin down. 477 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But the latest evidence indicates worryingly 478 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that the sensitivity may be greater than they had thought, 479 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we will have an even more daunting task. 480 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That shouldn't discourage us. 481 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I truly believe that once we cross this tipping point, 482 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and I do believe we're doing it now, 483 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 as I've said, 484 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 then I think we're going to find 485 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 a lot of ways to speed up the emissions reductions. 486 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: We'll take one more question from the community. 487 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Haha. "Geoengineering is making extraordinary progress. 488 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Exxon is investing in technology from Global Thermostat 489 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that seems promising. 490 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 What do you think of these air and water carbon capture technologies?" 491 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Stephen Petranek. 492 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Yeah. 493 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Well, you and I have talked about this before, Chris. 494 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I've been strongly opposed 495 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to conducting an unplanned global experiment 496 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that could go wildly wrong 497 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and most are really scared of that approach. 498 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 However, the term geoengineering 499 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is a nuanced term that covers a lot. 500 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 If you want to paint roofs white to reflect more energy 501 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from the cityscapes, 502 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that's not going to bring a danger of a runaway effect, 503 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and there are some other things that are loosely called "geoengineering" 504 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 like that which are fine. 505 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But the idea of blocking out the sun's rays, 506 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that's insane in my opinion. 507 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Turns out plants need sunlight for photosynthesis 508 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and solar panels need sunlight 509 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for producing electricity from the sun's rays. 510 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And the consequences of changing everything we know 511 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and pretending that the consequences are going to precisely cancel out 512 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the unplanned experiment of global warming that we already have underway, 513 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you know, there are glitches in our thinking. 514 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 One of them is called the single solution bias, 515 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and there are people who just have a hunger to say, 516 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 well, that one solution, we just need to latch on to that and do that, 517 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and do that, and damn the consequences. 518 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Well, it's nuts. 519 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: But let me push back on this just a little bit. 520 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So let's say that we agree that a single solution 521 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 all-or-nothing attempt at geoengineering is crazy. 522 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But there are scenarios where the world looks at emissions and just sees 523 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in 10 years' time, let's say, that they are just not coming down fast enough 524 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and that we are at risk 525 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of several other liftoff events 526 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 where this train will just get away from us, 527 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and we will see temperature rises of three, four, five, six, seven degrees 528 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and all of civilization is at risk. 529 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Surely there is an approach to geoengineering 530 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that could be modeled in a way on the way that we approach medicine. 531 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Like, for hundreds of years, we don't really understand the human body, 532 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 people would try interventions 533 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and some of them would work and some of them wouldn't. 534 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 No one says in medicine, you know, 535 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 go in and take an all-or-nothing decision 536 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 on someone's life, 537 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but they do say, let's try some stuff. 538 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 If an experiment can be reversible, 539 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if it's plausible in the first place, 540 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if there's reason to think that it might work, 541 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we actually owe it to the future health of humanity 542 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to try at least some types of tests to see what could work. 543 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So small steps to see whether, for example, 544 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 seeding of something in the ocean 545 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 might create, in a nonthreatening way, 546 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 carbon sinks. 547 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Or, rather than filling the atmosphere with sulfur dioxide, a smaller experiment 548 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that was not that big a deal to see whether, cost-effectively, 549 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you could reduce the temperature a little bit. 550 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Surely that isn't completely crazy 551 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and is at least something we should be thinking about 552 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in case these other measures don't work? 553 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, there've already been such experiments 554 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to seed the ocean 555 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to see if that can increase the uptake of CO2. 556 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And the experiments were an unmitigated failure, 557 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 as many predicted they would be. 558 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But that again 559 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is the kind of approach 560 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that's very different 561 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from putting tinfoil strips in the atmosphere orbiting the earth. 562 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That was the way that solar geoengineering proposal started. 563 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Now they're focusing on chalk, 564 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 so we have chalk dust all over everything. 565 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But more serious than that is the fact that it might not reversible. 566 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: But, Al, that's the rhetoric response. 567 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The amount of dust that you need 568 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to drop by a degree or two 569 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 wouldn't result in chalk dust over everything. 570 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It would be unbelievably, 571 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 like, it would be less than the dust that people experience everyday anyway. 572 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I mean, I just -- 573 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: First of all, I don't know how you do a small experiment 574 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in the atmosphere, 575 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and secondly, 576 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 if we were to take that approach, 577 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 we would have to steadily increase 578 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the amount of whatever substance they decided. 579 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We'd have to increase it every single year, 580 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and if we ever stopped, 581 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 then there would be a sudden snapback, 582 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 like the Picture of Dorian Gray, that old book and movie, 583 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 where suddenly all of the things caught up with you at once. 584 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The fact that anyone is even considering these approaches, Chris, 585 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is a measure of a feeling of desperation that some have begun to feel, 586 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 which I understand 587 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but I don't think it should drive us toward these reckless experiments. 588 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And by the way, using your analogy to experimental cancer treatments, 589 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for example, 590 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you usually get informed consent from the patient. 591 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Getting informed consent from 7.8 billion people 592 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who have no voice and no say, 593 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who are subject to the potentially catastrophic consequences 594 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of this whack-a-doodle proposal 595 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that somebody comes up with 596 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to try to rearrange the entire Earth's atmosphere 597 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and hope and pretend that it's going to cancel out, 598 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the fact that we're putting 152 million tons 599 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of heat-trapping, man-made global warming pollution 600 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 into the sky every day. 601 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That's what's really insane. 602 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 A scientist decades ago 603 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 compared it this way. 604 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 He said, if you had two people on a sinking boat 605 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and one of them says, 606 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 "You know, we could probably use some mirrors to signal to shore 607 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to get them to build 608 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 a sophisticated wave-generating machine 609 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that will cancel out the rocking of the boat 610 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 by these guys in the back of the boat." 611 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Or you could get them to stop rocking the boat. 612 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And that's what we need to do. We need to stop what's causing the crisis. 613 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: Yeah, that's a great story, 614 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but if the effort to stop the people rocking in the back of the boat 615 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is as complex as the scientific proposal you just outlined, 616 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 whereas the experiment to stop the waves 617 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is actually as simple as telling the people to stop rocking the boat, 618 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that story changes. 619 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And I think you're right that the issue of informed consent 620 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is a really challenging one, 621 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but, I mean, no one gave informed consent 622 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to do all of the other things we're doing to the atmosphere. 623 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And I agree that the moral hazard issue 624 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is worrying, 625 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that if we became dependent 626 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 on geoengineering 627 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and took away our efforts to do the rest, 628 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that would be tragic. 629 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It just seems like, 630 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I wish it was possible to have a nuanced debate 631 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 of people saying, you know what, 632 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 there's multiple dials to a very complex problem. 633 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We're going to have to adjust several of them very, very carefully 634 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and keep talking to each other. 635 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Wouldn't that be a goal 636 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to just try and have a more nuanced debate about this, 637 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 rather than all of that geoengineering 638 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 can't work? 639 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, I've said some of it, 640 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you know, the benign forms that I've mentioned, 641 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I'm not ruling those out, 642 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but blocking the Sun's rays from the Earth, 643 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 not only do you affect 7.8 billion people, 644 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 you affect the plants 645 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the animals 646 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the ocean currents 647 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and the wind currents 648 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and natural processes 649 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that we're in danger of disrupting even more. 650 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 So techno-optimism 651 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is something I've engaged in 652 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in the past, 653 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but to latch on to some brand new technological solution 654 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to rework the entire Earth's natural system 655 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because somebody thinks he's clever enough 656 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to do it in a way that precisely cancels out 657 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the consequences of using the atmosphere as an open sewer 658 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for heat-trapping manmade gases. 659 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It's much more important to stop using the atmosphere as an open sewer. 660 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That's what the problem is. 661 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: All right, well we'll agree that that is the most important thing, for sure, 662 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and speaking of which, 663 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 do you believe the world needs carbon pricing, 664 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and is there any prospect for getting there? 665 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Yes. Yes to both questions. 666 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 For decades, almost every economist 667 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who is asked about the climate crisis 668 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 says, "Well, we just need to put a price on carbon." 669 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And I have certainly been in favor of that approach. 670 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But it is daunting. 671 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Nevertheless, there are 43 jurisdictions 672 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 around the world that already have a price on carbon. 673 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We're seeing it in Europe. 674 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They finally straightened out their carbon pricing mechanism. 675 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It's an emissions trading version of it. 676 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We have places that have put a tax on carbon. 677 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That's the approach the economists prefer. 678 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 China is beginning to implement its national emissions trading program. 679 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 California and quite a few other states in the US are already doing it. 680 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It can be given back to people 681 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in a revenue-neutral way. 682 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But the opposition to it, Chris, 683 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 which you've noted, 684 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is impressive enough 685 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that we do have to take other approaches, 686 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and I would say most climate activists are now saying, look, 687 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 let's don't make the best the enemy of the better. 688 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There are other ways to do this as well. 689 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We need every solution we can rationally employ, 690 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 including by regulation 691 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and often when the political difficulty of a proposal becomes too difficult 692 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in a market-oriented approach, 693 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the fallback is with regulation, 694 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and it's been given a bad name, 695 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 regulation, 696 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but many places are doing it. 697 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I mentioned phasing out internal combustion engines. 698 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 That's an example. 699 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 There are 160 cities in the US 700 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that have already by regulation ordered that within a date certain 701 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 100 percent of all their electricity will have to come from renewable sources. 702 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And again, the market forces that are driving the cost of renewable energy 703 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and sustainability solutions ever downward, 704 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that gives us the wind at our back. 705 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 This is working in our favor. 706 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: I mean, the pushback on carbon pricing 707 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 often goes further from parts of the environmental movement, 708 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 which is to a pushback on the role of business in general. 709 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Business is actually, well, capitalism is blamed 710 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 for the climate crisis 711 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because of unrelenting growth, 712 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to the point where many people don't trust business 713 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to be part of the solution. 714 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The only way to go forward 715 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is to regulate, 716 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to force businesses to do the right thing. 717 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Do you think that business has to be part of the solution? 718 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Well, definitely, 719 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because the allocation of capital needed to solve this crisis 720 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is greater than what governments can handle. 721 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And businesses are beginning, 722 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 many businesses are beginning 723 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to play a very constructive role. 724 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They're getting a demand that they do so 725 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from their customers, from their investors, 726 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from their boards, 727 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 from their executive teams, from their families. 728 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And by the way, 729 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 the rising generation is demanding a brighter future, 730 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and when CEOs interview potential new hires, 731 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 they find that the new hires are interviewing them. 732 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They want to make a nice income, 733 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but they want to be able to tell their family and friends 734 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and peers that they're doing something more than just making money. 735 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 One illustration of how this new generation is changing, Chris: 736 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 there are 65 colleges in the US right now 737 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 where the College Young Republican Clubs 738 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 have joined together 739 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to jointly demand that the Republican National Committee 740 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 change its policy on climate, 741 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 lest they lose that entire generation. 742 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 This is a global phenomenon. 743 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The Greta Generation 744 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is now leading this 745 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in so many ways, 746 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and if you look at the polling, 747 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 again, the vast majority of young Republicans 748 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 are demanding a change on climate policy. 749 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 This is really a movement 750 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that is building still. 751 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: I was going to ask you about that, 752 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 because one of the most painful things over the last 20 years 753 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 has just been how climate has been politicized, 754 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 certainly in the US. 755 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 You've probably felt yourself at the heart of that a lot of the time, 756 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 with people attacking you personally in the most merciless 757 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and unfair ways, often. 758 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Do you really see signs 759 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that that might be changing, 760 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 led by the next generation? 761 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Yeah, there's no question about it. 762 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I don't want to rely on polls too much. 763 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I've mentioned them already. 764 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But there was a new one that came out 765 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that looked at the wavering Trump supporters, 766 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 those who supported him strongly in the past 767 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and want to do so again. 768 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 The number one issue, surprisingly to some, 769 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that is giving them pause, 770 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 is the craziness of President Trump and his administration on climate. 771 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 We're seeing big majorities of the Republican Party overall 772 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 saying that they're ready 773 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to start exploring some real solutions to the climate crisis. 774 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I think that we're really getting there, no question about it. 775 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: I mean, you've been the figurehead for raising this issue, 776 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and you happen to be a Democrat. 777 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 Is there anything 778 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 that you can personally do 779 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to open the tent, to welcome people, 780 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 to try and say this is beyond politics, dear friends? 781 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 AG: Yeah. Well, I've tried all of those things, 782 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and maybe it's made a little positive difference. 783 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I've worked with the Republicans extensively. 784 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 And, you know, well after I left the White House, 785 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I had Newt Gingrich and Pat Robertson 786 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and other prominent Republicans 787 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 appear on national TV ads with me 788 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 saying we've got to solve the climate crisis. 789 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 But the petroleum industry 790 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 has really double down 791 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in forcing discipline within the Republican Party. 792 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I mean, look at the attacks they've launched against the Pope 793 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 when he came out with his encyclical 794 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and was demonized, 795 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 not by all for sure, 796 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but there were hawks 797 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 in the anti-climate movement 798 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 who immediately started training their guns on Pope Francis, 799 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and there are many other examples. 800 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 They enforce discipline 801 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and try to make it a partisan issue, 802 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 even as Democrats reach out 803 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 and try to make it bipartisan. 804 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 I totally agree with you that it should not be a partisan issue. 805 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 It didn't use to be, 806 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 but it's been artificially weaponized as an issue. 807 99:59:59,999 --> 99:59:59,999 CA: I mean, the CEOs of oil companies also have kids.