1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,480 I'm professor Hans Rosling. 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:03,680 I'm going to show you 3 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:05,480 why it is that the Ebola epidemic 4 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:07,320 is so dangerous. 5 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,480 It's because one patient, on average, 6 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,439 keeps infecting two other persons. 7 00:00:13,439 --> 00:00:15,240 That doesn't sound so dangerous, 8 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:16,879 but I will show you 9 00:00:16,879 --> 00:00:18,020 what it means in reality. 10 00:00:18,020 --> 00:00:23,079 If this is the first person infected in the country, 11 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:28,120 that person will infect two others, 12 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:32,240 and this one will infect two others, 13 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,000 and this also. 14 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:41,000 Each of this ones infects two others. 15 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:42,840 That doesn't look too bad, 16 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:47,000 but look what happens when it continues. 17 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:57,159 There, it's already 32 persons infected. 18 00:00:57,159 --> 00:00:58,920 If we let this continue, 19 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,520 the epidemic will become dangerous for the whole world. 20 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:06,200 Let me show you the danger in another way. 21 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:07,560 Look at the blocks. 22 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,799 Some diseases increase like this, 23 00:01:09,799 --> 00:01:11,599 from month to month: 24 00:01:11,599 --> 00:01:15,359 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 25 00:01:15,359 --> 00:01:18,400 That's not how Ebola increases. 26 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,560 If one patient infects two others, 27 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,120 it doubles from month to month, 28 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,200 so this is what it happens with Ebola: 29 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:41,840 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. 30 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:47,840 And the next month, twice as many: 64! 31 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,000 So you see, 32 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,120 if actions are taken this month, 33 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,359 this is how much resources are needed. 34 00:01:53,359 --> 00:01:57,120 If you delay the actions for another two months, 35 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:01,480 you'll need four times as much resources. 36 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,680 Not to mention if you delay it further. 37 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,760 There is no alternative: 38 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:10,960 the Ebola epidemic has to be stopped now.